CBB Matchups
Every D1 game with tempo-free ratings, four factors and market lines, one place.
College basketball is being built for the 2026-27 season (tip-off Nov 3). What's here fills in as games are played.
Non-conferenceColeman Coliseum, Tuscaloosa, AL
Sam Houston
Efficiency #101
2025-26: 22-12 · 14-8 conf
@
Alabama
Efficiency #18
2025-26: 25-10 · 13-6 conf
Tue, Nov 3 · TBD
77.7
win 13%
Projected
90.9
win 87%
No line posted yet.
Model: ALA −13.1 · total 168.6 · ratings as of Sat, Oct 3
Preseason ratings start from 2025-26's final adjusted ratings, regressed toward the D1 average. The stats below are 2025-26's too; both update once 2026-27 games are played.
How the projection is built
each step, from an average D-I game to this oneProjected total
Average D-I game
148.2
PaceAdjusted tempo: Alabama 71.9, Sam Houston 70.1 → 73.7 possessions
+11.7
Alabama offense vs Sam Houston defense
+8.8
Sam Houston offense vs Alabama defense
−0.1
Projected total
168.6
Axis starts at 140 pointsPoints added or removed at each step
Projected margin
Even game
0.0
Alabama offense vs Sam Houston defense
+8.8
Sam Houston offense vs Alabama defense
+0.1
Home court+2.9 points per 100 possessions to the home offense, −2.9 to the visitors
+4.2
Alabama by 13.1
13.1
Sam Houston side ◂▸ Alabama side
Steps are rounded to one decimal, so they can differ from the total by 0.1. The margin is the same build seen from the home side; positive numbers help Alabama.
Pace & total
possessions per 40 minutesTempo, possessions per 40 minutes
Projected possessions: 73.7, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw 2025-26 season pace, Alabama is the faster team (74.2, #5 of 365) and Sam Houston the slower (70.6, #69). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (study weights 0.80 vs 0.66).
Projected possessions
73.7
per team, 40 min
Projected total
168.6
model
Projected team totals
77.7 / 90.9
Sam Houston / Alabama
Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent
70.1#42
Sam Houston
71.9#5
Alabama
How this game plays
what the study found each side's numbers actually do when these two teams meetPace
Track meet
Alabama averages 74.2 possessions per 40, Sam Houston 70.6. Slower teams pull the pace toward themselves more than fast teams push it (0.80 vs 0.66 in five seasons of games), so expect about 74 — more possessions mean more points in the total and more chances for the better team to separate.
AdvantageAlabama
Where Alabama scores: shooting
Alabama shoots an effective 55.2% (#34); Sam Houston allows 51.4% (#180). Expect about 53.6%, 2.4 points above an average D1 matchup — worth roughly +3.4 points per 100 possessions.
AdvantageSam Houston
Where Sam Houston scores: ball control
Sam Houston turns it over on 16.8% of possessions (#181); Alabama forces turnovers on 12.8% of opponent possessions (#359). Expect about 14.2%, 2.6 points below an average D1 matchup — worth roughly +3.1 points per 100 possessions.
TurnoversAlabama
Alabama protects the ball
Projected turnover rate of 14.2% is worth roughly +3.1 points per 100 possessions for Alabama's offense.
GlassSam Houston
Sam Houston owns the glass
Projected offensive rebound rate of 35.4% is worth roughly +3.1 points per 100 possessions for Sam Houston's offense.
Watch for noise
3-point caution
A notable season 3-point number here (Sam Houston) is close to a coin flip going forward — the study's model of next-game 3P% barely beats guessing the D1 average. Shot volume is what actually carries: expect Sam Houston at about 33.9% of its shots from three, Alabama about 52.9%.
Sam Houston has the ball
OffenseAlabama allowsvs D1 avg
52.5% #128
49.2% #73
-0.6 pt/100
16.8% #181
12.8% #359
+3.1 pt/100
35.9% #25
32.8% #295
+3.1 pt/100
34.4% #199
32.0% #103
-0.3 pt/100
71.6% #216
—
-0.1 pt/100
Sam Houston net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: +5.3 pts/100
Alabama has the ball
OffenseSam Houston allowsvs D1 avg
55.2% #34
51.4% #180
+3.4 pt/100
13.1% #9
16.1% #219
+3.1 pt/100
32.4% #111
30.1% #168
+0.8 pt/100
36.0% #150
36.7% #230
+0.2 pt/100
76.7% #39
—
+0.4 pt/100
Alabama net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: +7.8 pts/100
Shot diet
Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot · 2025-26 numbersSam Houstonoffense vsAlabamadefense
Share of shots by zone
Sam Houston shoots
41.6
7.6
14.7
36.2
Alabama allows
36.8
7.0
21.2
35.0
D-I average
38.5
6.4
15.8
39.3
FG% by zone
| Zone | D-I avg | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Rim | 55.0%#297 | 55.1%#64 | 58.6% |
| Short 2 (≤9 ft) | 41.6%#129 | 36.3%#98 | 39.5% |
| Mid 2 (10 ft+) | 38.7%#158 | 38.5%#175 | 38.0% |
| Three | 37.2%#24 | 33.8%#170 | 33.7% |
Alabamaoffense vsSam Houstondefense
Share of shots by zone
Alabama shoots
33.8
4.7
7.5
54.0
Sam Houston allows
37.8
5.9
14.9
41.4
D-I average
38.5
6.4
15.8
39.3
FG% by zone
| Zone | D-I avg | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Rim | 60.8%#98 | 61.5%#285 | 58.6% |
| Short 2 (≤9 ft) | 43.6%#88 | 36.3%#97 | 39.5% |
| Mid 2 (10 ft+) | 45.7%#10 | 35.9%#105 | 38.0% |
| Three | 35.8%#66 | 32.5%#89 | 33.7% |
RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three
Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).
Shot volume
Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line · 2025-26 numbersSam Houston
+1.0extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#138 of 365
Off reb %
35.9%
#25
Def reb %
69.9%
#168
Turnover %
16.8%
#181
Forced TO %
16.1%
#219
FT rate
34.4%
#199
FT allowed
36.7%
#230
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding+1.8
Defensive rebounding+0.2
Ball security0.0
Forcing turnovers−0.4
Foul shots drawn−0.2
Foul shots allowed−0.4
Alabama
+0.8extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#148 of 365
Off reb %
32.4%
#111
Def reb %
67.2%
#295
Turnover %
13.1%
#9
Forced TO %
12.8%
#359
FT rate
36.0%
#150
FT allowed
32.0%
#103
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding+0.6
Defensive rebounding−0.7
Ball security+2.5
Forcing turnovers−2.7
Foul shots drawn+0.2
Foul shots allowed+0.8
Sam Houston has more extra scoring chances per game: +1.0 (#138 of 365) to Alabama’s +0.8 (#148).
Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).
Rotation
Sam Houston2025-26 numbers
ESPN hasn't posted Sam Houston's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.
| # | Player | Pos | Cl | Ht | GP-GS | MPG | PPG | RPG | APG | TOV | eFG% | 3P% | 3PA/g | FT% | Usage | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25 | Damon Nicholas Jr. | G | Sr | 6'4" | 34-34 | 27.1 | 8.6 | 5.5 | 1.8 | 1.1 | 49.2% | 35.2% | 2.1 | 82.0% | 19.3% | |
| 4 | Kashie Natt | G | Sr | 6'3" | 34-34 | 26.4 | 10.8 | 8.2 | 2.4 | 1.2 | 48.7% | 38.3% | 2.4 | 78.0% | 23.7% | |
| 55 | Jacob Walker | G | Fr | 6'1" | 34-12 | 25.8 | 11.5 | 2.2 | 2.5 | 1.9 | 50.9% | 35.8% | 3.2 | 74.8% | 26.1% | |
| 35 | Po'Boigh King | G | Sr | 6'5" | 31-31 | 27.8 | 13.7 | 1.9 | 1.5 | 0.9 | 51.9% | 37.0% | 5.9 | 84.8% | 26.5% | |
| 8 | Veljko Ilic | F | Sr | 6'10" | 34-34 | 24.3 | 11.4 | 6.5 | 2.2 | 1.6 | 59.2% | 0.0% | 0.0 | 45.0% | 26.8% | |
| 2 | Jacobe Coleman | G | Fr | 6'3" | 33-3 | 21.8 | 8.7 | 2.5 | 1.6 | 0.9 | 56.0% | 37.8% | 3.6 | 69.2% | 22.1% | |
| 5 | Justin Begg | G | So | 6'0" | 22-22 | 26.3 | 9.5 | 2.6 | 3.6 | 3.2 | 48.4% | 32.3% | 4.5 | 73.7% | 26.7% | |
| 13 | Isaiah Manning | F | So | 6'8" | 16-0 | 19.8 | 10.7 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 1.1 | 54.8% | 34.9% | 3.9 | 86.8% | 27.8% | |
| 1 | CJ Beaumont | G | Jr | 6'8" | 30-0 | 10.2 | 3.3 | 2.4 | 0.1 | 0.4 | 57.9% | 46.8% | 1.6 | 62.5% | 17.3% | |
| 12 | Matt Dann | F | Fr | 7'0" | 31-0 | 9.6 | 3.3 | 2.8 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 64.1% | 0.0% | 0.0 | 60.6% | 17.6% | |
| 10 | Jaxson Ford | F | So | 6'7" | 17-0 | 11.1 | 3.7 | 3.5 | 0.6 | 1.1 | 60.4% | 0.0% | 0.1 | 50.0% | 20.6% | |
| 23 | Cheikh Ndiaye | F | So | 6'10" | 1-0 | 12.0 | 0.0 | 2.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | 0.0% | |
| 22 | Jackson Rogers | G | So | 6'3" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 11 | Nathan Nguyen | G | Fr | 6'0" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 0 | Noah Benny | G | Fr | 6'0" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — |
Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.
Alabama2025-26 numbers
| # | Player | Pos | Cl | Ht | GP-GS | MPG | PPG | RPG | APG | TOV | eFG% | 3P% | 3PA/g | FT% | Usage | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Amari Allen | F | Fr | 6'8" | 32-24 | 28.3 | 11.4 | 6.9 | 3.1 | 1.4 | 53.3% | 34.1% | 4.3 | 73.8% | 21.7% | |
| 22 | Aiden Sherrell | F | So | 6'10" | 34-34 | 23.9 | 11.1 | 6.2 | 1.1 | 0.9 | 59.5% | 33.8% | 2.4 | 71.3% | 22.4% | |
| 2 | Aden Holloway | G | Jr | 6'1" | 28-27 | 28.4 | 16.8 | 2.8 | 3.8 | 1.5 | 59.9% | 43.8% | 6.0 | 86.4% | 27.3% | |
| 7 | Taylor Bol Bowen | F | Jr | 6'10" | 30-11 | 19.1 | 6.3 | 4.2 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 51.0% | 30.2% | 3.2 | 79.6% | 18.0% | |
| 6 | London Jemison | F | Fr | 6'8" | 33-13 | 15.6 | 6.2 | 3.4 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 54.1% | 34.8% | 2.7 | 60.4% | 21.5% | |
| 15 | Noah Williamson | C | Sr | 7'0" | 33-0 | 8.1 | 1.3 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 36.5% | 16.7% | 0.9 | 64.3% | 14.7% | |
| 1 | Jalil Bethea | G | So | 6'5" | 26-0 | 8.0 | 3.9 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 47.5% | 31.4% | 2.0 | 80.6% | 27.6% | |
| 4 | Davion Hannah | G | Fr | 6'6" | 10-0 | 12.7 | 3.3 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 53.8% | 36.4% | 1.1 | 62.5% | 16.4% | |
| 10 | Keitenn Bristow | F | So | 6'10" | 10-1 | 12.6 | 3.6 | 4.0 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 37.9% | 11.1% | 0.9 | 73.3% | 20.0% | |
| 11 | Preston Murphy Jr. | G | Jr | 6'1" | 6-0 | 2.5 | 0.3 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.3 | 100.0% | 17.8% | |
| 25 | Jacob Martin | F | So | — | 9-0 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 100.0% | — | 0.0 | 50.0% | 8.1% | |
| 34 | Collins Onyejiaka | C | Fr | 6'11" | 2-0 | 5.5 | 1.0 | 3.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 50.0% | — | 0.0 | 0.0% | 22.7% | |
| 31 | Jack Fagan | G | So | — | 1-0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | 0.0% | |
| 30 | Klark James | G | Sr | — | 1-0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | 0.0% |
Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.
Sam Houston2025-26 numbers
ESPN hasn't posted Sam Houston's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.
| # | Player | Pos | Cl | Ht | GP-GS | MPG | PPG | RPG | APG | TOV | eFG% | 3P% | 3PA/g | FT% | Usage | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25 | Damon Nicholas Jr. | G | Sr | 6'4" | 34-34 | 27.1 | 8.6 | 5.5 | 1.8 | 1.1 | 49.2% | 35.2% | 2.1 | 82.0% | 19.3% | |
| 4 | Kashie Natt | G | Sr | 6'3" | 34-34 | 26.4 | 10.8 | 8.2 | 2.4 | 1.2 | 48.7% | 38.3% | 2.4 | 78.0% | 23.7% | |
| 55 | Jacob Walker | G | Fr | 6'1" | 34-12 | 25.8 | 11.5 | 2.2 | 2.5 | 1.9 | 50.9% | 35.8% | 3.2 | 74.8% | 26.1% | |
| 35 | Po'Boigh King | G | Sr | 6'5" | 31-31 | 27.8 | 13.7 | 1.9 | 1.5 | 0.9 | 51.9% | 37.0% | 5.9 | 84.8% | 26.5% | |
| 8 | Veljko Ilic | F | Sr | 6'10" | 34-34 | 24.3 | 11.4 | 6.5 | 2.2 | 1.6 | 59.2% | 0.0% | 0.0 | 45.0% | 26.8% | |
| 2 | Jacobe Coleman | G | Fr | 6'3" | 33-3 | 21.8 | 8.7 | 2.5 | 1.6 | 0.9 | 56.0% | 37.8% | 3.6 | 69.2% | 22.1% | |
| 5 | Justin Begg | G | So | 6'0" | 22-22 | 26.3 | 9.5 | 2.6 | 3.6 | 3.2 | 48.4% | 32.3% | 4.5 | 73.7% | 26.7% | |
| 13 | Isaiah Manning | F | So | 6'8" | 16-0 | 19.8 | 10.7 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 1.1 | 54.8% | 34.9% | 3.9 | 86.8% | 27.8% | |
| 1 | CJ Beaumont | G | Jr | 6'8" | 30-0 | 10.2 | 3.3 | 2.4 | 0.1 | 0.4 | 57.9% | 46.8% | 1.6 | 62.5% | 17.3% | |
| 12 | Matt Dann | F | Fr | 7'0" | 31-0 | 9.6 | 3.3 | 2.8 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 64.1% | 0.0% | 0.0 | 60.6% | 17.6% | |
| 10 | Jaxson Ford | F | So | 6'7" | 17-0 | 11.1 | 3.7 | 3.5 | 0.6 | 1.1 | 60.4% | 0.0% | 0.1 | 50.0% | 20.6% | |
| 23 | Cheikh Ndiaye | F | So | 6'10" | 1-0 | 12.0 | 0.0 | 2.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | 0.0% | |
| 22 | Jackson Rogers | G | So | 6'3" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 11 | Nathan Nguyen | G | Fr | 6'0" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 0 | Noah Benny | G | Fr | 6'0" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — |
Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.
Trends
Last 10 games of 2025-26Sam Houston
Against the spread
Season
20-11
Home
7-4
Road
10-6
Last 10
4-6
avg cover +0.1
Missed the spread 2 straightCovered 3 of 7 as a favorite
Over / under
Season
18-13
Home
6-5
Road
10-6
Last 10
5-5
avg vs total +3.2
Over in the last gameOver in 4 of 7 as a favorite
Last 10 games, newest first
| Date | Opponent | Site | Result | Total | PPP for | PPP vs | Pace | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 18 | New Mexico | A | L 83–107 | +11.5 | L−12.5 | 163.0 | O190 | 109.2 | 140.7 | 76.0 |
| Mar 13 | Kennesaw St | N | L 73–79 | −2.0 | L−8.0 | 159.5 | U152 | 104.8 | 113.4 | 69.7 |
| Mar 11 | New Mexico St | N | W 69–61 | −4.5 | W+3.5 | 155.0 | U130 | 96.5 | 85.3 | 71.5 |
| Mar 7 | Liberty | A | L 72–79 | +4.5 | L−2.5 | 152.5 | U151 | 115.8 | 127.1 | 62.2 |
| Mar 5 | Delaware | A | L 80–83 | −7.5 | L−10.5 | 148.0 | O163 | 112.4 | 116.7 | 71.2 |
| Feb 28 | Missouri St | H | W 86–81 | −7.0 | L−2.0 | 154.5 | O167 | 127.1 | 119.8 | 67.6 |
| Feb 26 | FIU | H | W 100–67 | −6.0 | W+27.0 | 162.0 | O167 | 136.4 | 91.4 | 73.3 |
| Feb 21 | Jax State | H | W 82–78 | −7.5 | L−3.5 | 148.5 | O160 | 121.6 | 115.7 | 67.4 |
| Feb 18 | MTSU | H | W 78–70 | −4.0 | W+4.0 | 151.5 | U148 | 112.0 | 100.5 | 69.6 |
| Feb 14 | Kennesaw St | A | W 83–79 | +1.0 | W+5.0 | 163.0 | U162 | 125.4 | 119.3 | 66.2 |
Alabama
Against the spread
Season
16-19
Home
6-9
Road
5-5
Last 10
5-5
avg cover +2.7
Missed the spread in the last gameCovered 4 of 8 as a favorite
Over / under
Season
18-17
Home
7-8
Road
7-3
Last 10
5-5
avg vs total +2.0
Under 2 straightOver in 5 of 8 as a favorite
Last 10 games, newest first
| Date | Opponent | Site | Result | Total | PPP for | PPP vs | Pace | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 27 | #1Michigan | N | L 77–90 | +9.5 | L−3.5 | 173.0 | U167 | 108.3 | 126.6 | 71.1 |
| Mar 22 | #5Texas Tech | N | W 90–65 | −1.0 | W+24.0 | 164.5 | U155 | 129.9 | 93.8 | 69.3 |
| Mar 20 | #13Hofstra | N | W 90–70 | −11.5 | W+8.5 | 159.0 | O160 | 129.1 | 100.4 | 69.7 |
| Mar 13 | Ole Miss | N | L 79–80 | −12.5 | L−13.5 | 164.5 | U159 | 107.5 | 108.8 | 73.5 |
| Mar 7 | Auburn | H | W 96–84 | −6.0 | W+6.0 | 175.0 | O180 | 134.9 | 118.0 | 71.2 |
| Mar 3 | Georgia | A | L 88–98 | −1.5 | L−11.5 | 180.0 | O186 | 117.7 | 131.1 | 74.7 |
| Feb 28 | #22Tennessee | A | W 71–69 | +5.0 | W+7.0 | 162.5 | U140 | 112.7 | 109.5 | 63.0 |
| Feb 25 | Mississippi St | H | W 100–75 | −12.5 | W+12.5 | 175.5 | U175 | 131.7 | 98.8 | 75.9 |
| Feb 21 | LSU | A | W 90–83 | −7.5 | L−0.5 | 172.0 | O173 | 126.7 | 116.9 | 71.0 |
| Feb 18 | #20Arkansas | H | W 117–115 2OT | −4.0 | L−2.0 | 181.0 | O232 | 133.6 | 131.3 | 87.6 |
Records vs the closing line describe the past; ten games is a small sample.
Tale of the tape
national rank toned left for away, right for homeSam HoustonAlabama
Efficiency
111.9
120.7
108.1
104.9
70.1
71.9
—
—
Shooting
52.5%
55.2%
50.6%
57.0%
37.2%
35.8%
71.6%
76.7%
34.4%
36.0%
Ball control & glass
16.8%
13.1%
16.1%
12.8%
35.9%
32.4%
30.1%
32.8%
9.2%
8.6%
8.4%
12.6%
Style
35.8%
54.3%
44.2%
35.8%
17.1%
14.3%
52.6%
54.3%
32.2%
33.9%
Roster
2.80
2.08
6'4.7"
6'7.4"
—
62.0%
Offseason
roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model inputSam Houston
Returning minutes: 100.0%Returning production: 100.0%
ESPN hasn't posted Sam Houston's roster for this season yet — no movement to show.
Returns 100% of last season's minutes. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026). (ESPN hasn't posted this season's roster yet -- this may still be last season's list.)
Alabama
Returning minutes: 62.0%Returning production: 60.6%
Lost
- Labaron Philon Jr. 29.1 mpg, 20.7 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Houston Mallette 23.3 mpg, 6.6 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Latrell Wrightsell Jr. 21.0 mpg, 10.2 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Charles Bediako 3.1 mpg, 1.4 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
Added
Nobody of note.
No incoming D1 transfers are listed on ESPN's roster yet — until they are, returning shares read high.
Returns 62% of last season's minutes; lost 2 of its top 5.
Head-to-head
this season and lastNo meetings the last two seasons.
The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — Pinnacle's spread and total (the median across books when Pinnacle has no line). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, built bottom-up from those same numbers: expected possessions times each side's opponent-adjusted points per possession, plus home court.
What these numbers mean: line shopping.