CBB Matchups

Every D1 game with tempo-free ratings, four factors and market lines, one place.

College basketball is being built for the 2026-27 season (tip-off Nov 3). What's here fills in as games are played.

Non-conferenceDale E. and Sarah Ann Fowler Events Center, Riverside, CA

North Florida

Efficiency #338

2025-26: 7-25 · 5-14 conf

CA Baptist

Efficiency #102

2025-26: 25-9 · 15-5 conf

Tue, Nov 3 · 10:00 PM ET

68.9

win 11%

Projected

83.3

win 89%

No line posted yet.

Model: CBU −14.5 · total 152.2 · ratings as of Sat, Oct 3

Preseason ratings start from 2025-26's final adjusted ratings, regressed toward the D1 average. The stats below are 2025-26's too; both update once 2026-27 games are played.

How the projection is built

each step, from an average D-I game to this one

Projected total

Average D-I game

148.2

PaceAdjusted tempo: CA Baptist 67.4, North Florida 70.4 → 69.6 possessions

+2.7

CA Baptist offense vs North Florida defense

+5.9

North Florida offense vs CA Baptist defense

−4.6

Projected total

152.2

Axis starts at 140 pointsPoints added or removed at each step

Projected margin

Even game

0.0

CA Baptist offense vs North Florida defense

+5.9

North Florida offense vs CA Baptist defense

+4.6

Home court+2.9 points per 100 possessions to the home offense, −2.9 to the visitors

+4.0

CA Baptist by 14.5

14.5

North Florida side ◂▸ CA Baptist side

Steps are rounded to one decimal, so they can differ from the total by 0.1. The margin is the same build seen from the home side; positive numbers help CA Baptist.

Pace & total

possessions per 40 minutes

Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes

Projected possessions: 69.6, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw 2025-26 season pace, North Florida is the faster team (71.9, #26 of 365) and CA Baptist the slower (67.5, #223). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (study weights 0.80 vs 0.66).

Projected possessions

69.6

per team, 40 min

Projected total

152.2

model

Projected team totals

68.9 / 83.3

North Florida / CA Baptist

Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent

70.4#29

North Florida

67.4#256

CA Baptist

How this game plays

what the study found each side's numbers actually do when these two teams meet

AdvantageCA Baptist

Where CA Baptist scores: the offensive glass

CA Baptist rebounds 37.5% of its own misses (#13); North Florida lets opponents grab 37.6% of their own misses (#361). Expect about 38.9%, 8.5 points above an average D1 matchup — worth roughly +5.2 points per 100 possessions.

AdvantageNorth Florida

Where North Florida struggles: the offensive glass

North Florida rebounds 25.2% of its own misses (#335); CA Baptist lets opponents grab 27.2% of their own misses (#41). Expect about 25.2%, 5.2 points below an average D1 matchup — worth roughly -3.2 points per 100 possessions.

TurnoversCA Baptist

CA Baptist protects the ball

Projected turnover rate of 14.9% is worth roughly +2.4 points per 100 possessions for CA Baptist's offense.

Watch for noise

3-point caution

A notable season 3-point number here (CA Baptist's defense) is close to a coin flip going forward — the study's model of next-game 3P% barely beats guessing the D1 average. Shot volume is what actually carries: expect North Florida at about 44.2% of its shots from three, CA Baptist about 33.2%.

ClashNorth Florida

Style clash: 3-point volume

North Florida takes 51.7% of its shots from three; CA Baptist runs teams off the line (31.6% of shots allowed from three) (D1 average 39.5%). Expect about 44.2% — the offense's habit usually carries a bit more weight (0.80 vs 0.64).

ClashCA Baptist

Style match: paint scoring

CA Baptist scores 48.4% of its points in the paint; North Florida gives up 48.5% of opponents' points in the paint (D1 average 42.8%). Expect about 46.1% — both habits push the same way.

North Florida has the ball

OffenseCA Baptist allowsvs D1 avg

52.9% #106

46.3% #16

-2.3 pt/100

17.9% #264

17.0% #154

-0.9 pt/100

25.2% #335

27.2% #41

-3.2 pt/100

28.8% #333

36.6% #229

-0.3 pt/100

77.8% #20

—

+0.5 pt/100

North Florida net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: -6.1 pts/100

CA Baptist has the ball

OffenseNorth Florida allowsvs D1 avg

48.3% #308

56.3% #349

+1.2 pt/100

17.9% #267

12.7% #362

+2.4 pt/100

37.5% #13

37.6% #361

+5.2 pt/100

35.9% #154

31.4% #91

-0.2 pt/100

71.3% #230

—

-0.1 pt/100

CA Baptist net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: +8.4 pts/100

Shot diet

Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot · 2025-26 numbers

North Floridaoffense vsCA Baptistdefense

Share of shots by zone

North Florida shoots

35.7

3.2

9.7

51.4

CA Baptist allows

42.2

8.8

18.7

30.3

D-I average

38.5

6.4

15.8

39.3

FG% by zone

Zone			D-I avg
Rim	57.2%#223	51.3%#9	58.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)	30.8%#344	39.7%#186	39.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)	46.5%#6	38.4%#174	38.0%
Three	35.0%#117	29.5%#5	33.7%

CA Baptistoffense vsNorth Floridadefense

Share of shots by zone

CA Baptist shoots

46.7

6.7

14.5

32.1

North Florida allows

44.5

4.9

12.1

38.5

D-I average

38.5

6.4

15.8

39.3

FG% by zone

Zone			D-I avg
Rim	51.0%#354	62.9%#321	58.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)	31.5%#336	47.1%#334	39.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)	43.1%#36	45.1%#350	38.0%
Three	33.4%#200	35.1%#253	33.7%

RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three

Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).

Shot volume

Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line · 2025-26 numbers

North Florida

−8.0extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#362 of 365

Off reb %

25.2%

#335

Def reb %

62.4%

#361

Turnover %

17.9%

#264

Forced TO %

12.7%

#362

FT rate

28.8%

#333

FT allowed

31.4%

#91

Where the chances come from (per game)

Offensive rebounding−1.7

Defensive rebounding−2.3

Ball security−0.7

Forcing turnovers−2.7

Foul shots drawn−1.6

Foul shots allowed+1.0

CA Baptist

+2.7extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#69 of 365

Off reb %

37.5%

#13

Def reb %

72.8%

#41

Turnover %

17.9%

#267

Forced TO %

17.0%

#154

FT rate

35.9%

#154

FT allowed

36.6%

#229

Where the chances come from (per game)

Offensive rebounding+2.3

Defensive rebounding+1.1

Ball security−0.8

Forcing turnovers+0.2

Foul shots drawn+0.2

Foul shots allowed−0.4

CA Baptist has more extra scoring chances per game: +2.7 (#69 of 365) to North Florida’s −8.0 (#362).

Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).

Rotation

North Florida2025-26 numbers

ESPN hasn't posted North Florida's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
11	Kamrin Oriol	G	Sr	6'3"	32-32	35.7	20.9	3.0	4.3	3.2	58.4%	40.2%	7.6	88.7%	30.8%
10	Kent Jackson	G	So	6'2"	32-32	31.9	14.8	3.3	2.2	1.9	51.2%	34.8%	9.5	92.5%	27.0%
1	BJ Plummer	F	Fr	6'6"	32-17	26.9	7.7	3.4	1.2	1.2	51.6%	32.8%	4.0	65.6%	17.3%
2	Mason Lee	F	So	6'7"	32-30	26.1	8.0	5.6	2.0	1.8	64.6%	37.5%	2.8	69.2%	16.7%
21	Dalton Gayman	F	Sr	6'7"	32-13	23.6	10.3	5.6	1.5	1.5	52.4%	36.5%	2.0	76.1%	24.5%
24	Nestor Dyachok	F	Sr	6'9"	32-18	15.2	4.3	2.3	1.0	0.6	49.5%	8.0%	0.8	68.0%	17.0%
4	Devin Hines	G	Sr	6'4"	27-15	17.1	5.5	2.3	0.9	0.9	45.4%	24.4%	1.7	71.4%	20.8%
5	Dante Oliver	G	So	6'5"	31-0	12.8	2.5	1.4	0.4	0.2	51.6%	38.9%	1.2	60.0%	11.1%
22	Trey Cady	F	Fr	6'8"	29-3	11.9	6.1	2.2	0.3	0.7	48.9%	33.9%	1.9	74.2%	28.9%
3	Taylor Thompson	G	Fr	5'11"	19-0	3.9	0.6	0.2	0.7	0.4	38.5%	33.3%	0.3	66.7%	16.0%
25	Gabe Jacobs	G	Fr	6'1"	9-0	4.6	1.8	0.6	0.2	0.4	57.7%	30.0%	1.1	100.0%	22.3%
13	Alex Vargo	G	Sr	6'5"	1-0	8.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	0.0%
12	Arden Begaj	F	Fr	7'0"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—
0	Mason Watkins	G	Fr	6'3"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

CA Baptist2025-26 numbers

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
33	Martel Williams	G	Sr	6'3"	33-33	33.2	12.8	4.8	1.5	1.7	44.6%	32.7%	3.3	77.6%	26.4%
3	Jayden Jackson	G	Sr	6'4"	28-26	29.0	9.0	3.2	1.7	1.4	43.2%	34.6%	5.6	75.0%	22.7%
8	Jonathan Griman	F	Jr	6'11"	31-19	23.3	6.1	5.9	0.5	1.1	57.9%	0.0%	0.2	52.0%	16.2%
11	Jordan Muller	G	Fr	6'0"	34-9	20.6	4.4	1.0	1.8	1.4	41.8%	35.2%	2.7	75.6%	17.7%
42	Bradey Henige	F	So	7'0"	33-15	20.2	4.9	5.5	0.5	1.0	53.5%	—	0.0	55.8%	16.2%
25	Thomas Ndong	F	Jr	6'10"	32-19	17.5	4.9	6.5	0.4	1.0	57.2%	20.0%	0.2	62.0%	17.5%
12	Devon Malcolm	F	Sr	6'5"	33-15	13.6	5.8	3.4	0.5	0.9	48.0%	30.3%	1.0	61.8%	28.5%
5	Miles Daniels	G	Sr	6'2"	21-0	11.3	2.6	1.5	0.5	0.8	48.0%	35.0%	1.0	46.7%	18.4%
6	Rene D'Amelio	F	Fr	6'9"	18-0	10.6	2.6	3.0	0.2	0.5	52.9%	25.0%	0.4	52.4%	16.7%
10	Monty Bowser	G	Sr	6'6"	13-1	8.3	2.1	1.4	0.2	0.2	43.8%	29.4%	1.3	75.0%	16.4%
35	Nate Garcia	C	Fr	7'0"	15-0	6.6	2.6	1.2	0.1	0.4	52.9%	—	0.0	84.0%	20.5%
2	Jalen Dollar	G	So	5'10"	7-0	5.1	2.1	0.3	0.1	0.0	100.0%	80.0%	0.7	75.0%	12.4%
4	Chase Mayo Harmon	G	Sr	6'4"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—
15	Mouhamadou Dioum	F	So	6'5"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—
24	OJ Blankson	G	Fr	6'7"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

North Florida2025-26 numbers

ESPN hasn't posted North Florida's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
11	Kamrin Oriol	G	Sr	6'3"	32-32	35.7	20.9	3.0	4.3	3.2	58.4%	40.2%	7.6	88.7%	30.8%
10	Kent Jackson	G	So	6'2"	32-32	31.9	14.8	3.3	2.2	1.9	51.2%	34.8%	9.5	92.5%	27.0%
1	BJ Plummer	F	Fr	6'6"	32-17	26.9	7.7	3.4	1.2	1.2	51.6%	32.8%	4.0	65.6%	17.3%
2	Mason Lee	F	So	6'7"	32-30	26.1	8.0	5.6	2.0	1.8	64.6%	37.5%	2.8	69.2%	16.7%
21	Dalton Gayman	F	Sr	6'7"	32-13	23.6	10.3	5.6	1.5	1.5	52.4%	36.5%	2.0	76.1%	24.5%
24	Nestor Dyachok	F	Sr	6'9"	32-18	15.2	4.3	2.3	1.0	0.6	49.5%	8.0%	0.8	68.0%	17.0%
4	Devin Hines	G	Sr	6'4"	27-15	17.1	5.5	2.3	0.9	0.9	45.4%	24.4%	1.7	71.4%	20.8%
5	Dante Oliver	G	So	6'5"	31-0	12.8	2.5	1.4	0.4	0.2	51.6%	38.9%	1.2	60.0%	11.1%
22	Trey Cady	F	Fr	6'8"	29-3	11.9	6.1	2.2	0.3	0.7	48.9%	33.9%	1.9	74.2%	28.9%
3	Taylor Thompson	G	Fr	5'11"	19-0	3.9	0.6	0.2	0.7	0.4	38.5%	33.3%	0.3	66.7%	16.0%
25	Gabe Jacobs	G	Fr	6'1"	9-0	4.6	1.8	0.6	0.2	0.4	57.7%	30.0%	1.1	100.0%	22.3%
13	Alex Vargo	G	Sr	6'5"	1-0	8.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	0.0%
12	Arden Begaj	F	Fr	7'0"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—
0	Mason Watkins	G	Fr	6'3"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Trends

Last 10 games of 2025-26

North Florida

Against the spread

Season

18-12

Home

7-4

Road

9-7

Last 10

6-4

avg cover +1.3

Missed the spread 2 straightCovered 6 of 10 as an underdogCovered 3 of 4 with a line of 10+

Over / under

Season

15-14-1

Home

4-7

Road

8-7-1

Last 10

3-7

avg vs total −5.3

Over in the last gameOver in 3 of 10 as an underdogOver in 2 of 4 with a line of 10+

Last 10 games, newest first

Date	Opponent	Site	Result			Total		PPP for	PPP vs	Pace
Mar 4	West GeorgiaAdjEM #304	N	L 85–93	+4.0	L−4.0	159.0	O178	113.1	123.7	75.2
Feb 28	JacksonvilleAdjEM #294	H	L 61–85	+1.5	L−22.5	150.0	U146	88.3	123.1	69.1
Feb 26	FGCUAdjEM #246	H	W 76–70	+7.0	W+13.0	161.0	U146	109.8	101.2	69.2
Feb 21	StetsonAdjEM #322	A	L 71–76	+1.5	L−3.5	160.5	U147	111.1	118.9	63.9
Feb 19	Austin PeayAdjEM #141	H	L 76–77	+11.0	W+10.0	165.5	U153	97.5	98.7	78.0
Feb 14	JacksonvilleAdjEM #294	A	L 56–63	+7.5	W+0.5	153.0	U119	96.1	108.2	58.3
Feb 11	FGCUAdjEM #246	A	L 81–90	+12.5	W+3.5	163.5	O171	111.2	123.6	72.8
Feb 7	QueensAdjEM #191	A	L 72–91	+15.5	L−3.5	179.5	U163	104.3	131.9	69.0
Feb 5	West GeorgiaAdjEM #304	A	W 81–73	+6.5	W+14.5	166.0	U154	109.0	98.2	74.3
Jan 31	LipscombAdjEM #179	H	L 94–100	+11.0	W+5.0	166.5	O194	129.0	137.2	72.9

CA Baptist

Against the spread

Season

20-13-1

Home

7-8

Road

9-5-1

Last 10

8-2

avg cover +5.2

Covered 7 straightCovered 6 of 7 as a favorite

Over / under

Season

12-22

Home

4-11

Road

7-8

Last 10

4-6

avg vs total −4.7

Under 2 straightOver in 4 of 7 as a favorite

Last 10 games, newest first

Date	Opponent	Site	Result			Total		PPP for	PPP vs	Pace
Mar 20	#4KansasAdjEM #25	N	L 60–68	+14.0	W+6.0	142.0	U128	86.5	98.1	69.3
Mar 14	Utah ValleyAdjEM #75	N	W 63–61	+2.5	W+4.5	138.5	U124	95.0	92.0	66.3
Mar 13	Utah TechAdjEM #216	N	W 86–72	−8.0	W+6.0	143.5	O158	122.2	102.3	70.4
Mar 7	Southern UtahAdjEM #293	A	W 82–75	−6.5	W+0.5	149.0	O157	117.2	107.2	69.9
Mar 5	Abilene ChrstnAdjEM #263	H	W 87–48	−10.0	W+29.0	137.0	U135	120.1	66.2	72.5
Feb 28	Tarleton StAdjEM #238	H	W 82–67	−7.5	W+7.5	139.0	O149	122.7	100.2	66.8
Feb 26	UT ArlingtonAdjEM #171	H	W 68–56	−6.5	W+5.5	134.5	U124	108.1	89.0	62.9
Feb 19	Utah ValleyAdjEM #75	A	L 46–65	+8.5	L−10.5	143.0	U111	70.3	99.3	65.4
Feb 14	Utah TechAdjEM #216	A	L 65–70	−3.5	L−8.5	143.5	U135	101.1	108.9	64.3
Feb 12	Southern UtahAdjEM #293	A	W 83–66	−5.5	W+11.5	147.0	O149	122.7	97.6	67.7

Records vs the closing line describe the past; ten games is a small sample.

Tale of the tape

national rank toned left for away, right for home

North FloridaCA Baptist

Efficiency

106.9

107.2

118.3

103.5

70.4

67.4

—

Shooting

52.9%

48.3%

53.4%

47.4%

35.0%

33.4%

77.8%

71.3%

28.8%

35.9%

Ball control & glass

17.9%

12.7%

17.0%

25.2%

37.5%

37.6%

27.2%

11.2%

9.9%

12.6%

9.6%

Style

51.7%

32.0%

36.0%

48.4%

11.3%

10.9%

50.6%

39.9%

30.3%

30.7%

Roster

2.68

3.00

6'5.1"

6'6"

—

82.6%

Offseason

roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model input

North Florida

Returning minutes: 100.0%Returning production: 100.0%

ESPN hasn't posted North Florida's roster for this season yet — no movement to show.

Returns 100% of last season's minutes. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026). (ESPN hasn't posted this season's roster yet -- this may still be last season's list.)

CA Baptist

Returning minutes: 82.6%Returning production: 74.2%

Lost

Dominique Daniels Jr. 35.2 mpg, 22.5 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet

Added

OJ Blankson no D1 minutes last season
Chase Mayo Harmon no D1 minutes last season
Mouhamadou Dioum no D1 minutes last season

No incoming D1 transfers are listed on ESPN's roster yet — until they are, returning shares read high.

Returns 83% of last season's minutes; lost 1 of its top 5. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026).

Head-to-head

this season and last

No meetings the last two seasons.

The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — Pinnacle's spread and total (the median across books when Pinnacle has no line). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, built bottom-up from those same numbers: expected possessions times each side's opponent-adjusted points per possession, plus home court.

What these numbers mean: line shopping.