CBB Matchups

Every D1 game with tempo-free ratings, four factors and market lines, one place.

College basketball is being built for the 2026-27 season (tip-off Nov 3). What's here fills in as games are played.
Non-conferenceMcCamish Pavilion, Atlanta, GA
Hampton
Efficiency #268
2025-26: 13-19 · 7-12 conf
@
Georgia Tech
Efficiency #201
2025-26: 11-20 · 2-16 conf
Tue, Nov 3 · TBD
69.5
win 28%
Projected
76.3
win 72%
No line posted yet.
Model: GT −6.8 · total 145.8 · ratings as of Sat, Oct 3
Preseason ratings start from 2025-26's final adjusted ratings, regressed toward the D1 average. The stats below are 2025-26's too; both update once 2026-27 games are played.

How the projection is built

each step, from an average D-I game to this one
Projected total
Average D-I game
148.2
PaceAdjusted tempo: Georgia Tech 70.6, Hampton 67.0 → 69.4 possessions
+2.2
Georgia Tech offense vs Hampton defense
−0.9
Hampton offense vs Georgia Tech defense
−3.7
Projected total
145.8
Axis starts at 142 pointsPoints added or removed at each step
Projected margin
Even game
0.0
Georgia Tech offense vs Hampton defense
−0.9
Hampton offense vs Georgia Tech defense
+3.7
Home court+2.9 points per 100 possessions to the home offense, −2.9 to the visitors
+4.0
Georgia Tech by 6.8
6.8
Hampton side ◂▸ Georgia Tech side

Steps are rounded to one decimal, so they can differ from the total by 0.1. The margin is the same build seen from the home side; positive numbers help Georgia Tech.

Pace & total

possessions per 40 minutes
Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes

Projected possessions: 69.4, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw 2025-26 season pace, Georgia Tech is the faster team (71.6, #30 of 365) and Hampton the slower (66.0, #297). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (study weights 0.80 vs 0.66).

Projected possessions
69.4
per team, 40 min
Projected total
145.8
model
Projected team totals
69.5 / 76.3
Hampton / Georgia Tech
Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent
67.0#286
Hampton
70.6#23
Georgia Tech

How this game plays

what the study found each side's numbers actually do when these two teams meet
AdvantageHampton
Where Hampton struggles: shooting
Hampton shoots an effective 45.7% (#356); Georgia Tech allows 49.9% (#94). Expect about 47.3%, 3.9 points below an average D1 matchup — worth roughly -5.6 points per 100 possessions.
Pace
Tempo tug-of-war
Georgia Tech averages 71.6 possessions per 40, Hampton 66.0. Slower teams pull the pace toward themselves more than fast teams push it (0.80 vs 0.66 in five seasons of games), so expect about 69 — more possessions mean more points in the total and more chances for the better team to separate.
ClashGeorgia Tech
Style match: 3-point volume
Georgia Tech rarely shoots threes (33.2% of its shots); Hampton runs teams off the line (33.6% of shots allowed from three) (D1 average 39.5%). Expect about 30.6% — both habits push the same way.
Watch for noise
3-point caution
A notable season 3-point number here (Hampton) is close to a coin flip going forward — the study's model of next-game 3P% barely beats guessing the D1 average. Shot volume is what actually carries: expect Hampton at about 40.7% of its shots from three, Georgia Tech about 30.6%.
AdvantageGeorgia Tech
Where Georgia Tech struggles: ball control
Georgia Tech turns it over on 18.6% of possessions (#306); Hampton forces turnovers on 17.2% of opponent possessions (#135). Expect about 18.1%, 1.3 points above an average D1 matchup — worth roughly -1.6 points per 100 possessions.
Hampton has the ball
OffenseGeorgia Tech allowsvs D1 avg
45.7% #356
49.9% #94
-5.6 pt/100
17.0% #206
15.6% #245
+0.8 pt/100
32.9% #90
30.7% #189
+1.1 pt/100
39.2% #73
34.2% #156
+0.2 pt/100
72.5% #191
—
+0.0 pt/100
Hampton net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: -3.5 pts/100
Georgia Tech has the ball
OffenseHampton allowsvs D1 avg
50.0% #234
52.0% #212
-0.5 pt/100
18.6% #306
17.2% #135
-1.6 pt/100
29.9% #203
30.0% #165
-0.3 pt/100
33.3% #229
46.5% #355
+0.7 pt/100
71.1% #235
—
-0.1 pt/100
Georgia Tech net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: -1.8 pts/100

Shot diet

Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot · 2025-26 numbers
Hamptonoffense vsGeorgia Techdefense
Share of shots by zone
Hampton shoots
Georgia Tech allows
D-I average
FG% by zone
ZoneD-I avg
Rim55.5%#28656.8%#10858.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)27.7%#35838.1%#14039.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)38.6%#16737.1%#13338.0%
Three28.8%#35733.1%#13433.7%
Georgia Techoffense vsHamptondefense
Share of shots by zone
Georgia Tech shoots
Hampton allows
D-I average
FG% by zone
ZoneD-I avg
Rim57.1%#23764.3%#34458.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)33.3%#31241.4%#22339.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)35.6%#27035.4%#8538.0%
Three35.1%#10932.1%#6533.7%
RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three

Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).

Shot volume

Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line · 2025-26 numbers
Hampton
−0.7extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#210 of 365
Off reb %
32.9%
#90
Def reb %
70.0%
#165
Turnover %
17.0%
#206
Forced TO %
17.2%
#135
FT rate
39.2%
#73
FT allowed
46.5%
#355
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding+0.8
Defensive rebounding+0.2
Ball security−0.2
Forcing turnovers+0.3
Foul shots drawn+1.1
Foul shots allowed−2.9
Georgia Tech
−2.4extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#280 of 365
Off reb %
29.9%
#203
Def reb %
69.3%
#189
Turnover %
18.6%
#306
Forced TO %
15.6%
#245
FT rate
33.3%
#229
FT allowed
34.2%
#156
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding−0.1
Defensive rebounding0.0
Ball security−1.3
Forcing turnovers−0.8
Foul shots drawn−0.4
Foul shots allowed+0.3

Hampton has more extra scoring chances per game: −0.7 (#210 of 365) to Georgia Tech’s −2.4 (#280).

Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).

Rotation

Hampton2025-26 numbers
ESPN hasn't posted Hampton's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.
#PlayerPosClHtGP-GSMPGPPGRPGAPGTOVeFG%3P%3PA/gFT%UsageStatus
25Xzavier LongFSr6'7"30-2734.69.89.61.92.046.4%25.0%2.867.7%20.0%
11Daniel JohnsonGSo6'7"32-2925.110.05.00.70.945.7%31.9%3.673.0%27.2%
2Jalyke Gaines-WyattGJr6'0"29-2326.211.21.43.02.343.9%26.4%2.576.8%29.9%
5Etienne StrothersGSo6'2"32-1518.86.21.71.71.244.4%31.7%2.676.2%23.6%
23Josh OgundeleFSr7'0"27-2217.66.73.50.61.156.8%40.0%0.460.8%23.8%
0Kody WilliamsGSr6'0"29-816.02.71.01.60.635.8%22.9%1.772.7%15.0%
3Michael EleyGSr6'4"23-1019.213.03.40.70.754.3%30.9%4.188.2%36.2%
1Christian WatsonGSr6'6"25-617.66.02.01.00.944.1%27.1%1.979.2%23.8%
15Eunique RinkFSo6'10"30-711.71.91.90.20.463.4%—0.042.9%10.1%
13Aidan HaskinsFFr6'8"29-311.23.11.40.60.251.7%39.7%2.250.0%17.1%
8Elijah KennedyGSr6'4"22-513.04.91.90.90.450.0%29.4%1.557.1%24.3%
24Quintin CooperGFr6'2"27-38.63.61.10.60.539.7%16.1%1.156.3%34.1%
12Peter OduroFSr6'8"24-26.40.61.00.10.128.6%0.0%0.150.0%10.3%
22Kellan LewisGFr6'0"9-05.41.60.80.20.350.0%42.9%0.842.9%20.6%
30Hamza AsadallahGFr6'1"8-03.40.80.90.30.050.0%40.0%0.6—12.8%
Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Tale of the tape

national rank toned left for away, right for home
HamptonGeorgia Tech
Efficiency
104.2
106.1
109.5
107.4
67.0
70.6
—
—
Shooting
45.7%
50.0%
47.1%
48.7%
28.8%
35.1%
72.5%
71.1%
39.2%
33.3%
Ball control & glass
17.0%
18.6%
17.2%
15.6%
32.9%
29.9%
30.0%
30.7%
9.3%
11.3%
11.8%
10.8%
Style
37.1%
33.2%
39.9%
45.7%
15.5%
12.2%
48.9%
59.9%
39.9%
31.5%
Roster
3.04
3.70
6'5.1"
6'3.5"
—
14.2%

Offseason

roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model input
Hampton
Returning minutes: 100.0%Returning production: 100.0%
ESPN hasn't posted Hampton's roster for this season yet — no movement to show.

Returns 100% of last season's minutes. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026). (ESPN hasn't posted this season's roster yet -- this may still be last season's list.)

Georgia Tech
Returning minutes: 14.2%Returning production: 10.3%
Lost
  • Kowacie Reeves Jr. 28.3 mpg, 14.2 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
  • Lamar Washington 26.6 mpg, 8.9 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
  • Jaeden Mustaf 26.0 mpg, 9.7 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
  • Akai Fleming 24.7 mpg, 10.0 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
  • Baye Ndongo 23.7 mpg, 10.3 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
  • Chas Kelley III 16.1 mpg, 4.0 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
Added
  • Nasir Whitlock from Lehigh · 35.0 mpg, 20.5 ppg last season
  • Colby Garland from San José St · 30.9 mpg, 17.8 ppg last season
  • Courtland Muldrew from Washington · 7.7 mpg, 2.0 ppg last season
  • Jackson Fields from West Virginia · 3.7 mpg, 1.1 ppg last season
  • Haiden Harper no D1 minutes last season
  • Vctor Valds no D1 minutes last season

Returns 14% of last season's minutes; lost 5 of its top 5. Teams returning under 40% of last season's minutes have historically fallen about 0.8 points of AdjEM (n=716 team-seasons, 2022-2026).

Head-to-head

this season and last
No meetings the last two seasons.

The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — Pinnacle's spread and total (the median across books when Pinnacle has no line). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, built bottom-up from those same numbers: expected possessions times each side's opponent-adjusted points per possession, plus home court.

What these numbers mean: line shopping.