CBB Matchups
Every D1 game with tempo-free ratings, four factors and market lines, one place.
College basketball is being built for the 2026-27 season (tip-off Nov 3). What's here fills in as games are played.
Non-conferenceBramlage Coliseum, Manhattan, KS
S Dakota St
Efficiency #197
2025-26: 14-18 · 7-10 conf
@
Kansas St
Efficiency #128
2025-26: 12-20 · 3-16 conf
Tue, Nov 3 · TBD
75.0
win 28%
Projected
81.6
win 72%
No line posted yet.
Model: KSU −6.6 · total 156.6 · ratings as of Sat, Oct 3
Preseason ratings start from 2025-26's final adjusted ratings, regressed toward the D1 average. The stats below are 2025-26's too; both update once 2026-27 games are played.
How the projection is built
each step, from an average D-I game to this oneProjected total
Average D-I game
148.2
PaceAdjusted tempo: Kansas St 71.8, S Dakota St 68.0 → 71.5 possessions
+7.0
Kansas St offense vs S Dakota St defense
+2.0
S Dakota St offense vs Kansas St defense
−0.5
Projected total
156.6
Axis starts at 140 pointsPoints added or removed at each step
Projected margin
Even game
0.0
Kansas St offense vs S Dakota St defense
+2.0
S Dakota St offense vs Kansas St defense
+0.5
Home court+2.9 points per 100 possessions to the home offense, −2.9 to the visitors
+4.1
Kansas St by 6.6
6.6
S Dakota St side ◂▸ Kansas St side
Steps are rounded to one decimal, so they can differ from the total by 0.1: the total steps add to 156.7 against a projected 156.6. The margin is the same build seen from the home side; positive numbers help Kansas St.
Pace & total
possessions per 40 minutesTempo, possessions per 40 minutes
Projected possessions: 71.5, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw 2025-26 season pace, Kansas St is the faster team (73.8, #7 of 365) and S Dakota St the slower (67.9, #207). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (study weights 0.80 vs 0.66).
Projected possessions
71.5
per team, 40 min
Projected total
156.6
model
Projected team totals
75.0 / 81.6
S Dakota St / Kansas St
Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent
68.0#207
S Dakota St
71.8#7
Kansas St
How this game plays
what the study found each side's numbers actually do when these two teams meetPace
Tempo tug-of-war
Kansas St averages 73.8 possessions per 40, S Dakota St 67.9. Slower teams pull the pace toward themselves more than fast teams push it (0.80 vs 0.66 in five seasons of games), so expect about 72 — more possessions mean more points in the total and more chances for the better team to separate.
AdvantageKansas St
Where Kansas St struggles: the offensive glass
Kansas St rebounds 29.2% of its own misses (#229); S Dakota St lets opponents grab 25.1% of their own misses (#9). Expect about 27.0%, 3.4 points below an average D1 matchup — worth roughly -2.1 points per 100 possessions.
Watch for noise
3-point caution
A notable season 3-point number here (Kansas St) is close to a coin flip going forward — the study's model of next-game 3P% barely beats guessing the D1 average. Shot volume is what actually carries: expect S Dakota St at about 38.4% of its shots from three, Kansas St about 45.5%.
S Dakota St has the ball
OffenseKansas St allowsvs D1 avg
52.0% #143
52.5% #239
+1.5 pt/100
16.1% #148
17.1% #144
+0.2 pt/100
30.3% #186
33.9% #317
+1.0 pt/100
29.7% #317
35.2% #183
-0.3 pt/100
72.0% #209
—
-0.0 pt/100
S Dakota St net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: +2.4 pts/100
Kansas St has the ball
OffenseS Dakota St allowsvs D1 avg
53.3% #88
51.8% #204
+2.1 pt/100
17.4% #234
14.5% #322
+1.3 pt/100
29.2% #229
25.1% #9
-2.1 pt/100
26.9% #351
34.5% #164
-0.5 pt/100
71.0% #241
—
-0.1 pt/100
Kansas St net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: +0.6 pts/100
Shot diet
Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot · 2025-26 numbersS Dakota Stoffense vsKansas Stdefense
Share of shots by zone
S Dakota St shoots
38.9
8.7
14.4
38.0
Kansas St allows
39.3
6.6
15.8
38.2
D-I average
38.5
6.4
15.8
39.3
FG% by zone
| Zone | D-I avg | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Rim | 59.5%#144 | 60.6%#255 | 58.6% |
| Short 2 (≤9 ft) | 40.6%#161 | 40.8%#205 | 39.5% |
| Mid 2 (10 ft+) | 38.8%#156 | 42.0%#301 | 38.0% |
| Three | 34.0%#174 | 33.7%#166 | 33.7% |
Kansas Stoffense vsS Dakota Stdefense
Share of shots by zone
Kansas St shoots
38.1
7.9
13.9
40.1
S Dakota St allows
35.7
5.6
12.6
46.1
D-I average
38.5
6.4
15.8
39.3
FG% by zone
| Zone | D-I avg | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Rim | 62.6%#60 | 58.3%#157 | 58.6% |
| Short 2 (≤9 ft) | 36.6%#254 | 36.8%#106 | 39.5% |
| Mid 2 (10 ft+) | 31.9%#341 | 41.5%#290 | 38.0% |
| Three | 36.4%#43 | 34.1%#191 | 33.7% |
RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three
Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).
Shot volume
Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line · 2025-26 numbersS Dakota St
−0.5extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#197 of 365
Off reb %
30.3%
#186
Def reb %
74.9%
#9
Turnover %
16.1%
#148
Forced TO %
14.5%
#322
FT rate
29.7%
#317
FT allowed
34.5%
#164
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding0.0
Defensive rebounding+1.8
Ball security+0.4
Forcing turnovers−1.5
Foul shots drawn−1.4
Foul shots allowed+0.2
Kansas St
−3.7extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#323 of 365
Off reb %
29.2%
#229
Def reb %
66.1%
#317
Turnover %
17.4%
#234
Forced TO %
17.1%
#144
FT rate
26.9%
#351
FT allowed
35.2%
#183
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding−0.4
Defensive rebounding−1.1
Ball security−0.5
Forcing turnovers+0.2
Foul shots drawn−2.1
Foul shots allowed0.0
S Dakota St has more extra scoring chances per game: −0.5 (#197 of 365) to Kansas St’s −3.7 (#323).
Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).
Rotation
S Dakota St2025-26 numbers
ESPN hasn't posted S Dakota St's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.
| # | Player | Pos | Cl | Ht | GP-GS | MPG | PPG | RPG | APG | TOV | eFG% | 3P% | 3PA/g | FT% | Usage | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Joe Sayler | G | So | 6'3" | 32-32 | 32.5 | 14.5 | 3.5 | 2.4 | 1.8 | 52.3% | 41.2% | 5.2 | 83.0% | 26.8% | |
| 14 | Jaden Jackson | G | So | 6'0" | 32-32 | 32.1 | 12.3 | 4.2 | 2.5 | 1.3 | 47.3% | 32.2% | 6.6 | 78.3% | 24.9% | |
| 10 | Kalen Garry | G | Jr | 6'3" | 32-32 | 29.0 | 10.7 | 5.2 | 3.2 | 1.5 | 51.9% | 36.7% | 4.9 | 64.9% | 23.5% | |
| 11 | Matthew Mors | F | Sr | 6'7" | 32-32 | 27.7 | 8.4 | 4.3 | 1.2 | 1.0 | 57.2% | 30.8% | 2.4 | 79.6% | 17.1% | |
| 34 | Damon Wilkinson | C | So | 6'10" | 32-19 | 24.0 | 13.9 | 6.4 | 1.3 | 1.7 | 58.9% | 0.0% | 0.0 | 72.0% | 31.5% | |
| 35 | Alec Squires | C | Fr | 6'10" | 32-13 | 14.9 | 4.6 | 3.5 | 0.8 | 1.1 | 60.2% | — | 0.0 | 61.2% | 19.1% | |
| 2 | Luke Haertle | G | Jr | 6'3" | 30-0 | 14.9 | 3.8 | 2.9 | 1.4 | 1.1 | 41.2% | 23.1% | 1.3 | 60.0% | 21.0% | |
| 12 | Bubz Alvarez | G | So | 6'5" | 21-0 | 14.9 | 4.5 | 2.5 | 1.1 | 0.9 | 48.7% | 20.0% | 1.0 | 55.9% | 20.8% | |
| 5 | Caleb Delzell | F | Sr | 6'9" | 28-0 | 8.9 | 1.4 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 45.2% | 33.3% | 0.9 | 25.0% | 12.5% | |
| 6 | Jaden Rogers | G | Fr | 6'6" | 15-0 | 9.3 | 2.2 | 1.6 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 57.7% | 25.0% | 1.1 | 75.0% | 12.8% | |
| 0 | Trey Buchanan | G | Fr | 6'0" | 9-0 | 14.4 | 7.3 | 1.1 | 0.9 | 1.6 | 71.4% | 43.8% | 3.6 | 100.0% | 26.4% | |
| 23 | Andrell Burton Jr. | G | Fr | 6'7" | 4-0 | 3.3 | 1.8 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.8 | 75.0% | 0.0% | 0.3 | 33.3% | 37.0% | |
| 33 | Jadyn Cascio Jensen | G | Fr | 6'3" | 3-0 | 2.7 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 33.3% | 0.0% | 0.7 | — | 28.4% | |
| 22 | Davis Kern | F | Fr | 6'9" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — |
Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.
Kansas St2025-26 numbers
ESPN hasn't posted Kansas St's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.
| # | Player | Pos | Cl | Ht | GP-GS | MPG | PPG | RPG | APG | TOV | eFG% | 3P% | 3PA/g | FT% | Usage | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | P.J. Haggerty | G | Jr | 6'4" | 31-31 | 35.2 | 23.4 | 5.3 | 3.8 | 3.3 | 52.5% | 35.1% | 3.7 | 70.1% | 37.3% | |
| 34 | Nate Johnson | G | Sr | 6'2" | 32-32 | 32.8 | 12.8 | 4.9 | 4.6 | 2.4 | 55.0% | 40.8% | 4.9 | 85.0% | 22.0% | |
| 10 | David Castillo | G | So | 6'1" | 32-16 | 28.1 | 10.3 | 1.9 | 1.8 | 1.3 | 49.7% | 35.2% | 5.0 | 82.0% | 21.6% | |
| 15 | Taj Manning | F | Jr | 6'7" | 30-17 | 20.7 | 4.2 | 5.1 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 51.0% | 18.5% | 0.9 | 69.7% | 12.1% | |
| 21 | Khamari McGriff | F | Sr | 6'9" | 28-28 | 20.1 | 9.7 | 4.4 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 68.4% | 20.0% | 0.2 | 66.7% | 21.5% | |
| 3 | C.J. Jones | G | Sr | 6'5" | 31-1 | 17.4 | 3.6 | 1.8 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 37.1% | 23.2% | 2.2 | 83.3% | 16.7% | |
| 1 | Abdi Bashir Jr. | G | Jr | 6'7" | 18-18 | 24.5 | 13.2 | 2.2 | 2.3 | 1.1 | 59.7% | 44.4% | 8.4 | 68.8% | 26.3% | |
| 22 | Dorin Buca | C | Jr | 7'2" | 27-4 | 12.9 | 3.2 | 3.3 | 0.5 | 1.1 | 52.2% | 18.2% | 0.4 | 53.3% | 17.7% | |
| 47 | Andrej Kostic | F | Fr | 6'6" | 23-0 | 13.8 | 5.2 | 1.7 | 1.0 | 0.9 | 51.9% | 37.5% | 3.5 | 76.9% | 22.8% | |
| 0 | Elias Rapieque | F | Jr | 6'9" | 20-12 | 15.3 | 3.7 | 2.5 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 54.0% | 40.0% | 1.3 | 31.6% | 14.8% | |
| 14 | Mobi Ikegwuruka | G | Jr | 6'6" | 10-1 | 12.7 | 1.9 | 2.0 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 57.1% | — | 0.0 | 50.0% | 9.6% | |
| 6 | Marcus Johnson | F | Sr | 6'7" | 14-0 | 6.3 | 2.5 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 48.5% | 35.5% | 2.2 | 66.7% | 27.6% | |
| 23 | Stephen Osei | F | So | 6'10" | 3-0 | 3.0 | 0.7 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 33.3% | — | 0.0 | — | 34.0% | |
| 2 | Exavier Wilson | G | Fr | 6'1" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — |
Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.
S Dakota St2025-26 numbers
ESPN hasn't posted S Dakota St's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.
| # | Player | Pos | Cl | Ht | GP-GS | MPG | PPG | RPG | APG | TOV | eFG% | 3P% | 3PA/g | FT% | Usage | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Joe Sayler | G | So | 6'3" | 32-32 | 32.5 | 14.5 | 3.5 | 2.4 | 1.8 | 52.3% | 41.2% | 5.2 | 83.0% | 26.8% | |
| 14 | Jaden Jackson | G | So | 6'0" | 32-32 | 32.1 | 12.3 | 4.2 | 2.5 | 1.3 | 47.3% | 32.2% | 6.6 | 78.3% | 24.9% | |
| 10 | Kalen Garry | G | Jr | 6'3" | 32-32 | 29.0 | 10.7 | 5.2 | 3.2 | 1.5 | 51.9% | 36.7% | 4.9 | 64.9% | 23.5% | |
| 11 | Matthew Mors | F | Sr | 6'7" | 32-32 | 27.7 | 8.4 | 4.3 | 1.2 | 1.0 | 57.2% | 30.8% | 2.4 | 79.6% | 17.1% | |
| 34 | Damon Wilkinson | C | So | 6'10" | 32-19 | 24.0 | 13.9 | 6.4 | 1.3 | 1.7 | 58.9% | 0.0% | 0.0 | 72.0% | 31.5% | |
| 35 | Alec Squires | C | Fr | 6'10" | 32-13 | 14.9 | 4.6 | 3.5 | 0.8 | 1.1 | 60.2% | — | 0.0 | 61.2% | 19.1% | |
| 2 | Luke Haertle | G | Jr | 6'3" | 30-0 | 14.9 | 3.8 | 2.9 | 1.4 | 1.1 | 41.2% | 23.1% | 1.3 | 60.0% | 21.0% | |
| 12 | Bubz Alvarez | G | So | 6'5" | 21-0 | 14.9 | 4.5 | 2.5 | 1.1 | 0.9 | 48.7% | 20.0% | 1.0 | 55.9% | 20.8% | |
| 5 | Caleb Delzell | F | Sr | 6'9" | 28-0 | 8.9 | 1.4 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 45.2% | 33.3% | 0.9 | 25.0% | 12.5% | |
| 6 | Jaden Rogers | G | Fr | 6'6" | 15-0 | 9.3 | 2.2 | 1.6 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 57.7% | 25.0% | 1.1 | 75.0% | 12.8% | |
| 0 | Trey Buchanan | G | Fr | 6'0" | 9-0 | 14.4 | 7.3 | 1.1 | 0.9 | 1.6 | 71.4% | 43.8% | 3.6 | 100.0% | 26.4% | |
| 23 | Andrell Burton Jr. | G | Fr | 6'7" | 4-0 | 3.3 | 1.8 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.8 | 75.0% | 0.0% | 0.3 | 33.3% | 37.0% | |
| 33 | Jadyn Cascio Jensen | G | Fr | 6'3" | 3-0 | 2.7 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 33.3% | 0.0% | 0.7 | — | 28.4% | |
| 22 | Davis Kern | F | Fr | 6'9" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — |
Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.
Trends
Last 10 games of 2025-26S Dakota St
Against the spread
Season
12-16-1
Home
4-5-1
Road
7-7
Last 10
3-6-1
avg cover −4.7
Missed the spread 2 straightCovered 3 of 8 as a favorite, 1 push
Over / under
Season
13-16
Home
7-3
Road
5-9
Last 10
3-7
avg vs total −4.5
Under 3 straightOver in 3 of 8 as a favorite
Last 10 games, newest first
| Date | Opponent | Site | Result | Total | PPP for | PPP vs | Pace | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 5 | St Thomas | N | L 67–80 | +5.0 | L−8.0 | 150.0 | U147 | 104.3 | 124.5 | 64.3 |
| Feb 28 | South Dakota | A | L 70–75 | −3.0 | L−8.0 | 151.0 | U145 | 100.8 | 108.0 | 69.4 |
| Feb 26 | Kansas City | A | W 73–59 | −12.0 | W+2.0 | 151.0 | U132 | 113.8 | 92.0 | 64.1 |
| Feb 21 | North Dakota | H | W 91–83 | −8.0 | P0.0 | 151.5 | O174 | 138.3 | 126.2 | 65.8 |
| Feb 18 | N Dakota St | H | L 66–74 | +1.0 | L−7.0 | 147.0 | U140 | 100.8 | 113.0 | 65.5 |
| Feb 14 | Oral Roberts | A | W 87–69 | −5.5 | W+12.5 | 147.5 | O156 | 131.5 | 104.3 | 66.2 |
| Feb 12 | Denver | A | L 61–79 | −2.0 | L−20.0 | 160.5 | U140 | 96.2 | 124.5 | 63.4 |
| Feb 7 | South Dakota | H | L 67–68 | −11.5 | L−12.5 | 157.5 | U135 | 96.1 | 97.6 | 69.7 |
| Feb 4 | St Thomas | H | L 62–77 | −1.0 | L−16.0 | 157.0 | U139 | 99.3 | 123.4 | 62.4 |
| Jan 31 | Oral Roberts | H | W 95–72 | −13.0 | W+10.0 | 147.5 | O167 | 129.7 | 98.3 | 73.3 |
Kansas St
Against the spread
Season
12-20
Home
5-13
Road
5-6
Last 10
4-6
avg cover −1.4
Missed the spread 2 straightCovered 4 of 10 as an underdogCovered 2 of 5 with a line of 10+
Over / under
Season
17-15
Home
9-9
Road
5-6
Last 10
6-4
avg vs total +5.0
Over 2 straightOver in 6 of 10 as an underdogOver in 4 of 5 with a line of 10+
Last 10 games, newest first
| Date | Opponent | Site | Result | Total | PPP for | PPP vs | Pace | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 10 | BYU | N | L 91–105 | +11.0 | L−3.0 | 168.5 | O196 | 117.0 | 135.0 | 77.8 |
| Mar 7 | #14Kansas | A | L 85–104 | +17.5 | L−1.5 | 157.0 | O189 | 108.9 | 133.2 | 78.0 |
| Mar 3 | West Virginia | H | W 65–63 | +4.0 | W+6.0 | 141.5 | U128 | 97.4 | 94.4 | 66.7 |
| Feb 28 | TCU | H | L 68–77 | +3.0 | L−6.0 | 159.5 | U145 | 94.3 | 106.8 | 72.1 |
| Feb 25 | Colorado | A | L 70–79 | +6.0 | L−3.0 | 163.0 | U149 | 87.0 | 98.2 | 80.4 |
| Feb 21 | #13Texas Tech | A | L 72–100 | +12.5 | L−15.5 | 158.5 | O172 | 104.3 | 144.9 | 69.0 |
| Feb 17 | Baylor | H | W 90–74 | +3.5 | W+19.5 | 159.0 | O164 | 111.1 | 91.3 | 81.0 |
| Feb 14 | #3Houston | A | L 64–78 | +22.0 | W+8.0 | 146.0 | U142 | 84.7 | 103.2 | 75.6 |
| Feb 11 | Cincinnati | H | L 62–91 | +2.5 | L−26.5 | 147.0 | O153 | 88.0 | 129.2 | 70.4 |
| Feb 7 | TCU | A | L 82–84 | +10.0 | W+8.0 | 154.0 | O166 | 114.8 | 117.6 | 71.4 |
Records vs the closing line describe the past; ten games is a small sample.
Tale of the tape
national rank toned left for away, right for homeS Dakota StKansas St
Efficiency
108.5
110.1
109.6
107.7
68.0
71.8
—
—
Shooting
52.0%
53.3%
52.7%
52.4%
34.0%
36.4%
72.0%
71.0%
29.7%
26.9%
Ball control & glass
16.1%
17.4%
14.5%
17.1%
30.3%
29.2%
25.1%
33.9%
9.5%
10.0%
7.8%
11.0%
Style
38.8%
40.9%
46.0%
44.5%
9.7%
18.3%
51.3%
57.7%
28.6%
29.0%
Roster
2.45
3.11
6'4.8"
6'5.2"
—
—
Offseason
roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model inputS Dakota St
Returning minutes: 100.0%Returning production: 100.0%
ESPN hasn't posted S Dakota St's roster for this season yet — no movement to show.
Returns 100% of last season's minutes. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026). (ESPN hasn't posted this season's roster yet -- this may still be last season's list.)
Kansas St
Returning minutes: 100.0%Returning production: 100.0%
ESPN hasn't posted Kansas St's roster for this season yet — no movement to show.
Returns 100% of last season's minutes. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026). (ESPN hasn't posted this season's roster yet -- this may still be last season's list.)
Head-to-head
this season and lastNo meetings the last two seasons.
The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — Pinnacle's spread and total (the median across books when Pinnacle has no line). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, built bottom-up from those same numbers: expected possessions times each side's opponent-adjusted points per possession, plus home court.
What these numbers mean: line shopping.