CBB Matchups

Every D1 game with tempo-free ratings, four factors and market lines, one place.

College basketball is being built for the 2026-27 season (tip-off Nov 3). What's here fills in as games are played.
Non-conferenceReed Arena, College Station, TX
Alabama St
Efficiency #324
2025-26: 10-22 · 7-12 conf
@
Texas A&M
Efficiency #43
2025-26: 22-12 · 11-8 conf
Tue, Nov 3 · TBD
68.7
win 6%
Projected
86.9
win 94%
No line posted yet.
Model: TA&M −18.3 · total 155.6 · ratings as of Sat, Oct 3
Preseason ratings start from 2025-26's final adjusted ratings, regressed toward the D1 average. The stats below are 2025-26's too; both update once 2026-27 games are played.

How the projection is built

each step, from an average D-I game to this one
Projected total
Average D-I game
148.2
PaceAdjusted tempo: Texas A&M 70.5, Alabama St 69.6 → 71.8 possessions
+7.6
Texas A&M offense vs Alabama St defense
+6.9
Alabama St offense vs Texas A&M defense
−7.2
Projected total
155.6
Axis starts at 140 pointsPoints added or removed at each step
Projected margin
Even game
0.0
Texas A&M offense vs Alabama St defense
+6.9
Alabama St offense vs Texas A&M defense
+7.2
Home court+2.9 points per 100 possessions to the home offense, −2.9 to the visitors
+4.1
Texas A&M by 18.3
18.3
Alabama St side ◂▸ Texas A&M side

Steps are rounded to one decimal, so they can differ from the total by 0.1: the total steps add to 155.5 against a projected 155.6, and the margin steps add to +18.2 against +18.3. The margin is the same build seen from the home side; positive numbers help Texas A&M.

Pace & total

possessions per 40 minutes
Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes

Projected possessions: 71.8, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw 2025-26 season pace, Texas A&M is the faster team (72.0, #24 of 365) and Alabama St the slower (71.3, #42). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (study weights 0.80 vs 0.66).

Projected possessions
71.8
per team, 40 min
Projected total
155.6
model
Projected team totals
68.7 / 86.9
Alabama St / Texas A&M
Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent
69.6#75
Alabama St
70.5#27
Texas A&M

How this game plays

what the study found each side's numbers actually do when these two teams meet
Pace
Track meet
Texas A&M averages 72.0 possessions per 40, Alabama St 71.3. Slower teams pull the pace toward themselves more than fast teams push it (0.80 vs 0.66 in five seasons of games), so expect about 73 — more possessions mean more points in the total and more chances for the better team to separate.
AdvantageAlabama St
Where Alabama St struggles: shooting
Alabama St shoots an effective 47.1% (#335); Texas A&M allows 50.7% (#141). Expect about 48.6%, 2.7 points below an average D1 matchup — worth roughly -3.9 points per 100 possessions.
AdvantageTexas A&M
Where Texas A&M scores: shooting
Texas A&M shoots an effective 53.8% (#71); Alabama St allows 52.2% (#222). Expect about 53.2%, 1.9 points above an average D1 matchup — worth roughly +2.7 points per 100 possessions.
TurnoversAlabama St
Alabama St turns it over
Projected turnover rate of 18.6% is worth roughly -2.3 points per 100 possessions against Alabama St's offense.
ClashTexas A&M
Strength vs strength: turnover rate
Texas A&M (#52 in turnover rate) against Alabama St (#60 in the same stat allowed) — both rank inside the national top 60. Expect about 16.9%. Historically Alabama St's own number has carried a bit more weight in that exchange (0.57 vs 0.64).
Alabama St has the ball
OffenseTexas A&M allowsvs D1 avg
47.1% #335
50.7% #141
-3.9 pt/100
18.3% #287
18.4% #82
-2.3 pt/100
31.9% #128
33.0% #300
+1.4 pt/100
34.9% #185
35.3% #190
+0.0 pt/100
70.5% #254
—
-0.2 pt/100
Alabama St net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: -4.9 pts/100
Texas A&M has the ball
OffenseAlabama St allowsvs D1 avg
53.8% #71
52.2% #222
+2.7 pt/100
14.7% #52
18.7% #60
-0.1 pt/100
32.0% #122
31.5% #230
+1.0 pt/100
37.1% #128
42.3% #328
+0.7 pt/100
73.8% #144
—
+0.1 pt/100
Texas A&M net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: +4.4 pts/100

Shot diet

Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot · 2025-26 numbers
Alabama Stoffense vsTexas A&Mdefense
Share of shots by zone
Alabama St shoots
Texas A&M allows
D-I average
FG% by zone
ZoneD-I avg
Rim55.4%#29162.4%#30858.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)32.9%#31739.2%#16139.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)34.3%#30738.5%#17538.0%
Three31.8%#28831.8%#5333.7%
Texas A&Moffense vsAlabama Stdefense
Share of shots by zone
Texas A&M shoots
Alabama St allows
D-I average
FG% by zone
ZoneD-I avg
Rim57.5%#21361.2%#27558.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)38.4%#21235.3%#6539.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)36.9%#22835.0%#7938.0%
Three35.9%#6334.2%#19433.7%
RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three

Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).

Shot volume

Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line · 2025-26 numbers
Alabama St
−1.3extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#246 of 365
Off reb %
31.9%
#128
Def reb %
68.5%
#230
Turnover %
18.3%
#287
Forced TO %
18.7%
#60
FT rate
34.9%
#185
FT allowed
42.3%
#328
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding+0.5
Defensive rebounding−0.3
Ball security−1.0
Forcing turnovers+1.4
Foul shots drawn0.0
Foul shots allowed−1.8
Texas A&M
+2.8extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#62 of 365
Off reb %
32.0%
#122
Def reb %
67.0%
#300
Turnover %
14.7%
#52
Forced TO %
18.4%
#82
FT rate
37.1%
#128
FT allowed
35.3%
#190
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding+0.5
Defensive rebounding−0.8
Ball security+1.4
Forcing turnovers+1.1
Foul shots drawn+0.5
Foul shots allowed0.0

Texas A&M has more extra scoring chances per game: +2.8 (#62 of 365) to Alabama St’s −1.3 (#246).

Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).

Rotation

Alabama St2025-26 numbers
ESPN hasn't posted Alabama St's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.
#PlayerPosClHtGP-GSMPGPPGRPGAPGTOVeFG%3P%3PA/gFT%UsageStatus
2Micah SimpsonGSr6'2"32-3232.713.93.83.62.643.8%33.2%6.976.5%29.6%
11Cameron PalesseGJr6'5"32-3127.75.53.91.90.942.2%37.5%1.364.0%14.2%
24Jerquarius StanbackFFr6'9"32-3224.68.85.80.71.552.9%14.3%0.767.8%21.2%
0Tyler ByrdGJr6'3"31-1224.110.33.31.21.451.4%30.0%2.677.4%24.8%
20Asjon AndersonGSr6'2"28-2026.614.22.23.23.042.8%31.2%6.183.0%36.0%
1Damarien YatesGJr6'7"32-017.16.83.70.71.154.4%34.5%2.764.8%23.2%
23R'Chaun KingFFr6'6"29-1712.84.92.40.30.859.5%—0.072.1%20.1%
5Tyler MackGSr6'5"16-020.95.93.30.90.846.8%27.6%4.850.0%19.0%
4Mario AndrewsCSr6'6"31-19.21.63.10.10.450.0%20.0%0.238.9%12.3%
12Tyler MasonFJr6'9"22-111.95.02.30.10.456.3%60.0%0.540.6%23.9%
25JaSteven WalkerFJr6'10"16-1415.84.63.30.40.747.0%31.0%1.862.5%18.8%
3Trey MillerGSr6'2"3-022.07.32.04.02.343.8%42.9%2.350.0%23.7%
22Kevin AlabiFSo6'7"6-08.51.02.00.00.525.0%—0.014.3%18.3%
13Jordon MarshallGSr6'2"6-03.80.70.30.30.725.0%0.0%0.266.7%21.1%
7Damarion BondsGSr6'6"0-00.00.00.00.00.0——0.0——
10Damion Cox Jr.GFr6'2"0-00.00.00.00.00.0——0.0——
Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Tale of the tape

national rank toned left for away, right for home
Alabama StTexas A&M
Efficiency
102.1
115.1
111.6
104.8
69.6
70.5
—
—
Shooting
47.1%
53.8%
46.8%
53.8%
31.8%
35.9%
70.5%
73.8%
34.9%
37.1%
Ball control & glass
18.3%
14.7%
18.7%
18.4%
31.9%
32.0%
31.5%
33.0%
10.5%
8.8%
11.0%
11.7%
Style
38.5%
46.2%
41.5%
40.4%
17.7%
12.5%
47.6%
61.2%
35.4%
41.1%
Roster
3.02
3.38
6'5"
6'5.2"
—
64.3%

Offseason

roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model input
Alabama St
Returning minutes: 100.0%Returning production: 100.0%
ESPN hasn't posted Alabama St's roster for this season yet — no movement to show.

Returns 100% of last season's minutes. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026). (ESPN hasn't posted this season's roster yet -- this may still be last season's list.)

Texas A&M
Returning minutes: 64.3%Returning production: 58.9%
Lost
  • Rashaun Agee 26.9 mpg, 14.6 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
  • Rylan Griffen 24.4 mpg, 10.5 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
  • Pop Isaacs 21.7 mpg, 9.5 ppg · transferred to Oklahoma
Added
Nobody of note.

No incoming D1 transfers are listed on ESPN's roster yet — until they are, returning shares read high.

Returns 64% of last season's minutes; lost 3 of its top 5 (1 transferred).

Head-to-head

this season and last
No meetings the last two seasons.

The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — Pinnacle's spread and total (the median across books when Pinnacle has no line). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, built bottom-up from those same numbers: expected possessions times each side's opponent-adjusted points per possession, plus home court.

What these numbers mean: line shopping.