CBB Matchups

Every D1 game with tempo-free ratings, four factors and market lines, one place.

College basketball is being built for the 2026-27 season (tip-off Nov 3). What's here fills in as games are played.

Non-conferencePete Maravich Assembly Center, Baton Rouge, LA

LSU N Orleans

Efficiency #221

2025-26: 15-18 · 13-11 conf

LSU

Efficiency #72

2025-26: 15-17 · 3-16 conf

Tue, Nov 3 · TBD

72.6

win 19%

Projected

83.0

win 81%

No line posted yet.

Model: LSU −10.4 · total 155.6 · ratings as of Sat, Oct 3

Preseason ratings start from 2025-26's final adjusted ratings, regressed toward the D1 average. The stats below are 2025-26's too; both update once 2026-27 games are played.

How the projection is built

each step, from an average D-I game to this one

Projected total

Average D-I game

148.2

PaceAdjusted tempo: LSU 67.9, LSU N Orleans 69.8 → 69.4 possessions

+2.3

LSU offense vs LSU N Orleans defense

+5.7

LSU N Orleans offense vs LSU defense

−0.7

Projected total

155.6

Axis starts at 145 pointsPoints added or removed at each step

Projected margin

Even game

0.0

LSU offense vs LSU N Orleans defense

+5.7

LSU N Orleans offense vs LSU defense

+0.7

Home court+2.9 points per 100 possessions to the home offense, −2.9 to the visitors

+4.0

LSU by 10.4

10.4

LSU N Orleans side ◂▸ LSU side

Steps are rounded to one decimal, so they can differ from the total by 0.1: the total steps add to 155.5 against a projected 155.6. The margin is the same build seen from the home side; positive numbers help LSU.

Pace & total

possessions per 40 minutes

Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes

Projected possessions: 69.4, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw 2025-26 season pace, LSU N Orleans is the faster team (69.7, #107 of 365) and LSU the slower (68.6, #168). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (study weights 0.80 vs 0.66).

Projected possessions

69.4

per team, 40 min

Projected total

155.6

model

Projected team totals

72.6 / 83.0

LSU N Orleans / LSU

Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent

69.8#61

LSU N Orleans

67.9#219

LSU

How this game plays

what the study found each side's numbers actually do when these two teams meet

AdvantageLSU N Orleans

Where LSU N Orleans scores: the offensive glass

LSU N Orleans rebounds 35.6% of its own misses (#34); LSU lets opponents grab 31.7% of their own misses (#239). Expect about 34.7%, 4.3 points above an average D1 matchup — worth roughly +2.6 points per 100 possessions.

AdvantageLSU

Where LSU scores: the offensive glass

LSU rebounds 33.1% of its own misses (#87); LSU N Orleans lets opponents grab 34.5% of their own misses (#325). Expect about 34.2%, 3.8 points above an average D1 matchup — worth roughly +2.3 points per 100 possessions.

TurnoversLSU

LSU protects the ball

Projected turnover rate of 14.9% is worth roughly +2.3 points per 100 possessions for LSU's offense.

LSU N Orleans has the ball

OffenseLSU allowsvs D1 avg

49.6% #258

50.9% #150

-1.6 pt/100

20.5% #353

13.9% #338

-0.4 pt/100

35.6% #34

31.7% #239

+2.6 pt/100

46.4% #1

37.8% #256

+0.9 pt/100

74.3% #114

—

+0.2 pt/100

LSU N Orleans net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: +1.7 pts/100

LSU has the ball

OffenseLSU N Orleans allowsvs D1 avg

52.8% #111

49.0% #71

-0.4 pt/100

15.6% #107

14.9% #302

+2.3 pt/100

33.1% #87

34.5% #325

+2.3 pt/100

40.9% #49

39.5% #296

+0.7 pt/100

76.4% #43

—

+0.3 pt/100

LSU net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: +5.3 pts/100

Shot diet

Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot · 2025-26 numbers

LSU N Orleansoffense vsLSUdefense

Share of shots by zone

LSU N Orleans shoots

41.8

5.8

19.2

33.2

LSU allows

39.5

6.9

16.5

37.1

D-I average

38.5

6.4

15.8

39.3

FG% by zone

Zone			D-I avg
Rim	56.9%#244	56.4%#98	58.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)	43.8%#86	34.2%#47	39.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)	38.4%#177	39.9%#241	38.0%
Three	31.8%#287	35.4%#271	33.7%

LSUoffense vsLSU N Orleansdefense

Share of shots by zone

LSU shoots

40.3

9.4

15.8

34.5

LSU N Orleans allows

37.6

5.7

17.1

39.7

D-I average

38.5

6.4

15.8

39.3

FG% by zone

Zone			D-I avg
Rim	62.8%#56	54.3%#46	58.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)	37.3%#240	36.9%#108	39.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)	39.8%#115	41.2%#280	38.0%
Three	33.1%#225	32.4%#86	33.7%

RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three

Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).

Shot volume

Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line · 2025-26 numbers

LSU N Orleans

−1.5extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#256 of 365

Off reb %

35.6%

#34

Def reb %

65.5%

#325

Turnover %

20.5%

#353

Forced TO %

14.9%

#302

FT rate

46.4%

FT allowed

39.5%

#296

Where the chances come from (per game)

Offensive rebounding+1.7

Defensive rebounding−1.2

Ball security−2.5

Forcing turnovers−1.3

Foul shots drawn+2.9

Foul shots allowed−1.1

LSU

+0.3extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#170 of 365

Off reb %

33.1%

#87

Def reb %

68.3%

#239

Turnover %

15.6%

#107

Forced TO %

13.9%

#338

FT rate

40.9%

#49

FT allowed

37.8%

#256

Where the chances come from (per game)

Offensive rebounding+0.9

Defensive rebounding−0.3

Ball security+0.8

Forcing turnovers−1.9

Foul shots drawn+1.5

Foul shots allowed−0.7

LSU has more extra scoring chances per game: +0.3 (#170 of 365) to LSU N Orleans’s −1.5 (#256).

Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).

Rotation

LSU N Orleans2025-26 numbers

ESPN hasn't posted LSU N Orleans's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
22	Coleton Benson	G	Sr	6'2"	33-33	34.3	16.2	3.0	1.7	1.8	51.0%	35.9%	7.5	92.8%	26.5%
5	Jakevion Buckley	G	Sr	6'2"	32-29	33.9	13.8	4.7	5.6	4.1	43.2%	31.2%	2.9	77.1%	30.1%
23	MJ Thomas	F	So	6'8"	32-30	26.8	10.8	8.0	1.5	1.8	53.6%	66.7%	0.1	73.3%	23.7%
6	TJ Cope	G	Jr	6'7"	32-20	21.3	8.3	2.9	0.8	1.3	57.5%	24.1%	0.9	68.7%	21.5%
9	Churchill Abass	C	Jr	6'10"	33-27	20.1	8.4	5.7	0.5	1.6	63.1%	0.0%	0.1	56.7%	23.9%
25	Enzo Boudouma	F	Fr	6'9"	32-6	18.3	5.3	3.1	0.8	0.9	45.2%	27.0%	2.3	72.3%	18.9%
21	Kedrick Osby	F	Jr	6'7"	32-7	17.2	4.9	2.2	0.2	0.5	50.8%	40.0%	1.7	75.8%	16.9%
99	Panagiotis Pagonis	F	Fr	6'9"	30-7	17.6	4.1	3.1	1.0	0.7	39.8%	24.5%	1.6	72.0%	16.6%
3	Irish Coquia	G	Jr	6'2"	25-3	9.6	2.7	0.7	1.2	0.8	45.9%	34.1%	1.6	84.6%	20.8%
15	Jamal Chretien II	G	Fr	6'6"	14-3	9.1	1.4	0.7	0.2	0.2	36.4%	15.4%	0.9	75.0%	12.1%
11	Mathok Majok	C	Jr	7'4"	16-0	4.9	2.2	1.6	0.0	0.2	73.7%	—	0.0	53.8%	20.8%
0	Hercy Miller	G	Sr	6'3"	9-0	5.6	1.6	0.6	0.6	0.6	26.9%	0.0%	0.9	0.0%	36.3%
7	Grant Kemp	G	Sr	5'9"	7-0	4.9	1.3	1.1	0.6	0.4	18.2%	0.0%	0.4	71.4%	29.1%
20	William Patterson	C	So	7'2"	7-0	4.3	0.3	0.7	0.0	0.3	20.0%	—	0.0	—	13.0%
13	Vieux Sanneh	F	Fr	6'5"	2-0	6.0	1.0	0.5	0.0	0.0	0.0%	—	0.0	100.0%	14.6%
10	Eze Nwakamma	F	Fr	6'8"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

LSU2025-26 numbers

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
8	Pablo Tamba	F	Sr	6'7"	32-32	28.6	7.9	7.3	1.5	1.0	64.1%	32.0%	0.8	60.7%	14.6%
2	Jalen Reece	G	Fr	6'0"	32-10	23.8	5.8	1.8	3.6	1.3	42.2%	29.9%	2.4	72.3%	18.6%
1	Mike Nwoko	F	Jr	6'10"	32-29	21.9	13.4	5.9	0.8	1.8	61.0%	0.0%	0.1	76.1%	31.9%
4	Rashad King	G	Sr	6'6"	32-9	18.7	5.8	2.1	1.2	0.9	47.5%	29.5%	2.8	78.6%	20.5%
11	Dedan Thomas Jr.	G	Jr	6'1"	16-15	29.4	15.3	2.7	6.5	1.6	49.4%	30.2%	2.7	83.3%	29.5%
7	PJ Carter	G	Sr	6'4"	25-1	10.8	4.2	0.9	0.3	0.2	49.5%	33.7%	3.4	85.7%	23.1%
0	Mazi Mosley	G	Fr	6'5"	18-0	6.7	1.9	0.7	0.3	0.3	48.6%	38.5%	1.4	0.0%	20.0%
9	Jalen Reed	F	Jr	6'10"	6-0	17.8	9.5	5.7	0.7	1.8	61.4%	42.9%	1.2	66.7%	28.5%
16	Ron Zipper	G	Fr	6'5"	9-0	3.6	2.2	0.4	0.2	0.3	53.6%	41.7%	1.3	83.3%	35.5%
14	Jaden Bobbett	G	Sr	6'1"	6-0	1.2	0.0	0.2	0.2	0.2	0.0%	0.0%	0.2	—	23.9%
5	Marcus Vaughn	F	Fr	6'8"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—
13	Matt Gilhool	F	Fr	6'11"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

LSU N Orleans2025-26 numbers

ESPN hasn't posted LSU N Orleans's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
22	Coleton Benson	G	Sr	6'2"	33-33	34.3	16.2	3.0	1.7	1.8	51.0%	35.9%	7.5	92.8%	26.5%
5	Jakevion Buckley	G	Sr	6'2"	32-29	33.9	13.8	4.7	5.6	4.1	43.2%	31.2%	2.9	77.1%	30.1%
23	MJ Thomas	F	So	6'8"	32-30	26.8	10.8	8.0	1.5	1.8	53.6%	66.7%	0.1	73.3%	23.7%
6	TJ Cope	G	Jr	6'7"	32-20	21.3	8.3	2.9	0.8	1.3	57.5%	24.1%	0.9	68.7%	21.5%
9	Churchill Abass	C	Jr	6'10"	33-27	20.1	8.4	5.7	0.5	1.6	63.1%	0.0%	0.1	56.7%	23.9%
25	Enzo Boudouma	F	Fr	6'9"	32-6	18.3	5.3	3.1	0.8	0.9	45.2%	27.0%	2.3	72.3%	18.9%
21	Kedrick Osby	F	Jr	6'7"	32-7	17.2	4.9	2.2	0.2	0.5	50.8%	40.0%	1.7	75.8%	16.9%
99	Panagiotis Pagonis	F	Fr	6'9"	30-7	17.6	4.1	3.1	1.0	0.7	39.8%	24.5%	1.6	72.0%	16.6%
3	Irish Coquia	G	Jr	6'2"	25-3	9.6	2.7	0.7	1.2	0.8	45.9%	34.1%	1.6	84.6%	20.8%
15	Jamal Chretien II	G	Fr	6'6"	14-3	9.1	1.4	0.7	0.2	0.2	36.4%	15.4%	0.9	75.0%	12.1%
11	Mathok Majok	C	Jr	7'4"	16-0	4.9	2.2	1.6	0.0	0.2	73.7%	—	0.0	53.8%	20.8%
0	Hercy Miller	G	Sr	6'3"	9-0	5.6	1.6	0.6	0.6	0.6	26.9%	0.0%	0.9	0.0%	36.3%
7	Grant Kemp	G	Sr	5'9"	7-0	4.9	1.3	1.1	0.6	0.4	18.2%	0.0%	0.4	71.4%	29.1%
20	William Patterson	C	So	7'2"	7-0	4.3	0.3	0.7	0.0	0.3	20.0%	—	0.0	—	13.0%
13	Vieux Sanneh	F	Fr	6'5"	2-0	6.0	1.0	0.5	0.0	0.0	0.0%	—	0.0	100.0%	14.6%
10	Eze Nwakamma	F	Fr	6'8"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Trends

Last 10 games of 2025-26

LSU N Orleans

Against the spread

Season

18-14-1

Home

7-4

Road

10-9-1

Last 10

6-3-1

avg cover +2.7

Missed the spread in the last gameCovered 5 of 8 as an underdog, 1 push

Over / under

Season

19-14

Home

9-2

Road

10-10

Last 10

4-6

avg vs total −3.3

Under 2 straightOver in 3 of 8 as an underdog

Last 10 games, newest first

Date	Opponent	Site	Result			Total		PPP for	PPP vs	Pace
Mar 9	Texas A&M-CCAdjEM #181	N	L 61–74	+2.0	L−11.0	147.5	U135	104.8	127.1	58.2
Mar 8	Hou ChristianAdjEM #297	N	W 73–60	−4.0	W+9.0	143.0	U133	103.3	84.9	70.7
Mar 2	SE LouisianaAdjEM #296	H	L 78–82	−7.0	L−11.0	144.0	O160	104.8	110.2	74.4
Feb 28	McNeeseAdjEM #49	H	L 63–66	+10.0	W+7.0	150.5	U129	97.5	102.1	64.6
Feb 23	SF AustinAdjEM #73	A	W 77–73	+11.5	W+15.5	152.0	U150	113.4	107.5	67.9
Feb 21	LamarAdjEM #236	A	W 77–71	+5.5	W+11.5	146.5	O148	109.8	101.3	70.1
Feb 16	Incarnate WordAdjEM #264	A	W 78–64	+2.0	W+16.0	153.5	U142	120.9	99.2	64.5
Feb 14	Hou ChristianAdjEM #297	A	L 60–61	+1.0	P0.0	149.0	U121	96.6	98.2	62.1
Feb 9	Texas A&M-CCAdjEM #181	H	W 84–78 OT	+1.5	W+7.5	147.0	O162	96.5	89.6	87.1
Feb 7	UT Rio GrandeAdjEM #109	H	L 76–95	+1.5	L−17.5	151.0	O171	102.0	127.5	74.5

LSU

Against the spread

Season

18-14

Home

7-10

Road

8-2

Last 10

5-5

avg cover −3.1

Covered the last gameCovered 5 of 9 as an underdog

Over / under

Season

15-15-2

Home

7-8-2

Road

5-5

Last 10

6-4

avg vs total +10.2

Over 3 straightOver in 6 of 9 as an underdog

Last 10 games, newest first

Date	Opponent	Site	Result			Total		PPP for	PPP vs	Pace
Mar 11	KentuckyAdjEM #27	N	L 82–87	+9.0	W+4.0	151.5	O169	116.8	123.9	70.2
Mar 7	Texas A&MAdjEM #43	H	L 91–94 3OT	+2.5	L−0.5	160.5	O185	98.7	101.9	92.2
Mar 3	AuburnAdjEM #41	A	L 74–88	+10.5	L−3.5	155.5	O162	109.8	130.6	67.4
Feb 28	OklahomaAdjEM #47	H	L 67–83	−2.0	L−18.0	156.0	U150	102.6	127.1	65.3
Feb 25	Ole MissAdjEM #82	A	W 106–99 2OT	+2.0	W+9.0	147.0	O205	125.8	117.5	84.3
Feb 21	#25AlabamaAdjEM #18	H	L 83–90	+7.5	W+0.5	172.0	O173	116.9	126.7	71.0
Feb 17	TexasAdjEM #38	A	L 85–88	+11.0	W+8.0	151.0	O173	123.9	128.3	68.6
Feb 14	TennesseeAdjEM #13	A	L 63–73	+14.5	W+4.5	143.5	U136	107.7	124.8	58.5
Feb 10	#21ArkansasAdjEM #19	H	L 62–91	+5.0	L−24.0	159.0	U153	83.1	122.0	74.6
Feb 7	GeorgiaAdjEM #32	H	L 71–83	+1.0	L−11.0	161.5	U154	107.7	125.9	65.9

Records vs the closing line describe the past; ten games is a small sample.

Tale of the tape

national rank toned left for away, right for home

LSU N OrleansLSU

Efficiency

108.2

114.7

110.5

107.9

69.8

67.9

—

Shooting

49.6%

52.8%

50.6%

54.5%

31.8%

33.1%

74.3%

76.4%

46.4%

40.9%

Ball control & glass

20.5%

15.6%

14.9%

13.9%

35.6%

33.1%

34.5%

31.7%

11.1%

9.5%

9.7%

8.3%

Style

33.7%

34.5%

42.7%

46.3%

12.4%

13.4%

52.5%

31.8%

29.8%

Roster

2.84

2.99

6'5.9"

6'5.1"

—

60.6%

Offseason

roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model input

LSU N Orleans

Returning minutes: 100.0%Returning production: 100.0%

ESPN hasn't posted LSU N Orleans's roster for this season yet — no movement to show.

Returns 100% of last season's minutes. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026). (ESPN hasn't posted this season's roster yet -- this may still be last season's list.)

LSU

Returning minutes: 60.6%Returning production: 60.9%

Lost

Marquel Sutton 31.4 mpg, 13.1 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
Max Mackinnon 30.9 mpg, 15.2 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
Robert Miller III 18.8 mpg, 5.9 ppg · transferred to Miami

Added

Matt Gilhool no D1 minutes last season
Marcus Vaughn no D1 minutes last season

No incoming D1 transfers are listed on ESPN's roster yet — until they are, returning shares read high.

Returns 61% of last season's minutes; lost 2 of its top 5.

Head-to-head

this season and last

Date	Season	Result
Mon, Nov 10	2025-26	LSU N Orleans 58 – 93 LSU

The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — Pinnacle's spread and total (the median across books when Pinnacle has no line). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, built bottom-up from those same numbers: expected possessions times each side's opponent-adjusted points per possession, plus home court.

What these numbers mean: line shopping.