CBB Matchups
Every D1 game with tempo-free ratings, four factors and market lines, one place.
College basketball is being built for the 2026-27 season (tip-off Nov 3). What's here fills in as games are played.
Non-conferenceJohn Paul Jones Arena, Charlottesville, VA
Drexel
Efficiency #214
2025-26: 17-16 · 11-9 conf
@
Virginia
Efficiency #15
2025-26: 30-6 · 17-4 conf
Tue, Nov 3 · TBD
61.4
win 9%
Projected
76.9
win 91%
No line posted yet.
Model: UVA −15.5 · total 138.3 · ratings as of Sat, Oct 3
Preseason ratings start from 2025-26's final adjusted ratings, regressed toward the D1 average. The stats below are 2025-26's too; both update once 2026-27 games are played.
How the projection is built
each step, from an average D-I game to this oneProjected total
Average D-I game
148.2
PaceAdjusted tempo: Virginia 67.1, Drexel 66.3 → 65.1 possessions
−7.0
Virginia offense vs Drexel defense
+4.4
Drexel offense vs Virginia defense
−7.4
Projected total
138.3
Axis starts at 130 pointsPoints added or removed at each step
Projected margin
Even game
0.0
Virginia offense vs Drexel defense
+4.4
Drexel offense vs Virginia defense
+7.4
Home court+2.9 points per 100 possessions to the home offense, −2.9 to the visitors
+3.7
Virginia by 15.5
15.5
Drexel side ◂▸ Virginia side
Steps are rounded to one decimal, so they can differ from the total by 0.1: the total steps add to 138.2 against a projected 138.3. The margin is the same build seen from the home side; positive numbers help Virginia.
Pace & total
possessions per 40 minutesTempo, possessions per 40 minutes
Projected possessions: 65.1, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw 2025-26 season pace, Virginia is the faster team (66.4, #276 of 365) and Drexel the slower (65.2, #326). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (study weights 0.80 vs 0.66).
Projected possessions
65.1
per team, 40 min
Projected total
138.3
model
Projected team totals
61.4 / 76.9
Drexel / Virginia
Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent
66.3#331
Drexel
67.1#278
Virginia
How this game plays
what the study found each side's numbers actually do when these two teams meetDefenseVirginia
Virginia's shot-blocking
Virginia ranks #2 nationally in block rate — one of the few defensive numbers that travels. Expect about 14.8% of Drexel's two-point attempts to get blocked against this defense.
AdvantageDrexel
Where Drexel struggles: shooting
Drexel shoots an effective 50.7% (#204); Virginia allows 45.7% (#8). Expect about 48.1%, 3.2 points below an average D1 matchup — worth roughly -4.5 points per 100 possessions.
Pace
Half-court grind
Virginia averages 66.4 possessions per 40, Drexel 65.2. Slower teams pull the pace toward themselves more than fast teams push it (0.80 vs 0.66 in five seasons of games), so expect about 65 — more possessions mean more points in the total and more chances for the better team to separate.
AdvantageVirginia
Where Virginia scores: the offensive glass
Virginia rebounds 37.9% of its own misses (#9); Drexel lets opponents grab 31.0% of their own misses (#202). Expect about 35.9%, 5.5 points above an average D1 matchup — worth roughly +3.4 points per 100 possessions.
Watch for noise
3-point caution
A notable season 3-point number here (Virginia, Virginia's defense, Drexel's defense) is close to a coin flip going forward — the study's model of next-game 3P% barely beats guessing the D1 average. Shot volume is what actually carries: expect Drexel at about 38.9% of its shots from three, Virginia about 41.8%.
ClashVirginia
Style clash: 3-point volume
Virginia takes 46.7% of its shots from three; Drexel runs teams off the line (34.1% of shots allowed from three) (D1 average 39.5%). Expect about 41.8% — the offense's habit usually carries a bit more weight (0.80 vs 0.64).
Drexel has the ball
OffenseVirginia allowsvs D1 avg
50.7% #204
45.7% #8
-4.5 pt/100
19.0% #321
15.4% #255
-0.5 pt/100
31.2% #156
29.2% #120
-0.0 pt/100
31.6% #265
32.9% #129
-0.4 pt/100
66.5% #348
—
-0.5 pt/100
Drexel net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: -6.0 pts/100
Virginia has the ball
OffenseDrexel allowsvs D1 avg
54.6% #49
47.1% #22
-0.3 pt/100
16.0% #140
16.4% #195
+0.8 pt/100
37.9% #9
31.0% #202
+3.4 pt/100
32.3% #253
35.4% #192
-0.1 pt/100
72.8% #177
—
+0.0 pt/100
Virginia net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: +3.8 pts/100
Shot diet
Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot · 2025-26 numbersDrexeloffense vsVirginiadefense
Share of shots by zone
Drexel shoots
36.2
7.8
15.9
40.2
Virginia allows
34.2
7.9
21.0
36.8
D-I average
38.5
6.4
15.8
39.3
FG% by zone
| Zone | D-I avg | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Rim | 56.1%#268 | 50.9%#7 | 58.6% |
| Short 2 (≤9 ft) | 39.7%#181 | 38.6%#150 | 39.5% |
| Mid 2 (10 ft+) | 33.9%#315 | 35.7%#97 | 38.0% |
| Three | 35.5%#90 | 31.6%#46 | 33.7% |
Virginiaoffense vsDrexeldefense
Share of shots by zone
Virginia shoots
36.0
6.7
10.5
46.7
Drexel allows
37.9
8.2
19.7
34.2
D-I average
38.5
6.4
15.8
39.3
FG% by zone
| Zone | D-I avg | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Rim | 60.6%#105 | 53.4%#28 | 58.6% |
| Short 2 (≤9 ft) | 45.3%#59 | 37.2%#119 | 39.5% |
| Mid 2 (10 ft+) | 38.6%#164 | 39.2%#210 | 38.0% |
| Three | 36.2%#48 | 30.3%#15 | 33.7% |
RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three
Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).
Shot volume
Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line · 2025-26 numbersDrexel
−2.5extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#286 of 365
Off reb %
31.2%
#156
Def reb %
69.0%
#202
Turnover %
19.0%
#321
Forced TO %
16.4%
#195
FT rate
31.6%
#265
FT allowed
35.4%
#192
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding+0.3
Defensive rebounding−0.1
Ball security−1.5
Forcing turnovers−0.2
Foul shots drawn−0.9
Foul shots allowed0.0
Virginia
+2.5extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#79 of 365
Off reb %
37.9%
#9
Def reb %
70.8%
#120
Turnover %
16.0%
#140
Forced TO %
15.4%
#255
FT rate
32.3%
#253
FT allowed
32.9%
#129
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding+2.4
Defensive rebounding+0.5
Ball security+0.5
Forcing turnovers−0.9
Foul shots drawn−0.7
Foul shots allowed+0.6
Virginia has more extra scoring chances per game: +2.5 (#79 of 365) to Drexel’s −2.5 (#286).
Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).
Rotation
Drexel2025-26 numbers
| # | Player | Pos | Cl | Ht | GP-GS | MPG | PPG | RPG | APG | TOV | eFG% | 3P% | 3PA/g | FT% | Usage | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Shane Blakeney | G | Jr | 6'5" | 33-33 | 33.7 | 14.2 | 5.1 | 2.5 | 2.2 | 49.5% | 35.9% | 5.6 | 67.1% | 28.9% | |
| 1 | Victor Panov | F | Sr | 6'7" | 31-25 | 28.7 | 9.9 | 4.9 | 1.6 | 1.3 | 55.1% | 37.3% | 4.8 | 69.0% | 21.2% | |
| 7 | Eli Beard | G | Sr | 5'11" | 33-30 | 26.5 | 9.0 | 2.2 | 2.1 | 1.3 | 55.8% | 41.3% | 4.7 | 81.5% | 20.7% | |
| 5 | Josh Reed | G | So | 6'2" | 33-1 | 18.9 | 7.9 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 1.1 | 44.4% | 25.0% | 1.0 | 59.0% | 30.7% | |
| 13 | Garfield Turner | F | Sr | 6'8" | 30-4 | 19.6 | 7.1 | 5.1 | 1.1 | 1.0 | 62.3% | — | 0.0 | 56.5% | 21.3% | |
| 22 | Villiam Garcia Adsten | G | Jr | 6'8" | 32-10 | 17.6 | 3.5 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 38.8% | 29.8% | 1.5 | 54.8% | 19.4% | |
| 11 | Martin de LaPorterie | F | Jr | 7'1" | 33-29 | 13.0 | 3.0 | 3.1 | 0.3 | 0.9 | 51.2% | 33.3% | 0.5 | 70.0% | 17.5% | |
| 23 | Dillon Tingler | G | So | 6'7" | 29-0 | 9.9 | 3.6 | 1.9 | 0.4 | 0.7 | 52.0% | 37.8% | 1.3 | 92.9% | 22.5% | |
| 33 | Ralph Akuta | F | So | 7'1" | 29-0 | 4.9 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.1 | 0.4 | 58.8% | — | 0.0 | 33.3% | 22.3% | |
| 25 | Max Davis | G | Sr | 6'4" | 4-0 | 3.0 | 2.5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 0.8 | — | 26.8% | |
| 24 | Ignacio Campoy Galvez | F | Fr | 6'7" | 1-0 | 2.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | 0.0% | |
| 6 | Clem Edomwonyin | F | So | 6'9" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 2 | Moses Hipps | G | Fr | 6'4" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — |
Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.
Virginia2025-26 numbers
| # | Player | Pos | Cl | Ht | GP-GS | MPG | PPG | RPG | APG | TOV | eFG% | 3P% | 3PA/g | FT% | Usage | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 | Dallin Hall | G | Sr | 6'4" | 36-36 | 28.4 | 5.9 | 3.6 | 4.4 | 1.3 | 50.9% | 32.0% | 2.9 | 81.3% | 14.3% | |
| 28 | Thijs De Ridder | F | Fr | 6'9" | 36-36 | 27.7 | 15.6 | 6.2 | 1.6 | 1.8 | 55.9% | 35.7% | 3.1 | 70.9% | 32.5% | |
| 5 | Sam Lewis | G | Jr | 6'7" | 36-35 | 25.6 | 10.6 | 3.6 | 1.4 | 1.3 | 55.9% | 40.3% | 4.3 | 75.0% | 24.7% | |
| 2 | Chance Mallory | G | Fr | 5'10" | 36-0 | 24.1 | 9.3 | 3.7 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 50.6% | 34.5% | 3.1 | 77.5% | 23.3% | |
| 17 | Johann Grunloh | C | Fr | 7'0" | 36-36 | 21.0 | 7.1 | 5.2 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 59.0% | 35.0% | 1.7 | 55.7% | 19.5% | |
| 11 | Devin Tillis | F | Sr | 6'7" | 31-1 | 15.9 | 4.1 | 2.7 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 50.5% | 37.5% | 2.1 | 78.3% | 17.7% | |
| 12 | Elijah Gertrude | G | So | 6'4" | 17-0 | 6.2 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 45.2% | 14.3% | 0.8 | 33.3% | 20.6% | |
| 7 | Martin Carrere | G | Fr | 6'9" | 16-0 | 4.0 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 42.3% | 16.7% | 0.4 | 50.0% | 19.3% | |
| 35 | Carter Lang | F | So | 6'9" | 12-0 | 2.2 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.0 | 35.7% | 33.3% | 0.3 | 0.0% | 18.1% | |
| 13 | Desmond Roberts | G | So | 6'4" | 12-0 | 1.5 | 0.0 | 0.4 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.1 | — | 9.9% | |
| 22 | Owen Odom | G | Fr | 6'1" | 11-0 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 50.0% | 0.0% | 0.2 | — | 25.2% | |
| 21 | Silas Barksdale | F | Fr | 6'9" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — |
Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.
Drexel2025-26 numbers
| # | Player | Pos | Cl | Ht | GP-GS | MPG | PPG | RPG | APG | TOV | eFG% | 3P% | 3PA/g | FT% | Usage | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Shane Blakeney | G | Jr | 6'5" | 33-33 | 33.7 | 14.2 | 5.1 | 2.5 | 2.2 | 49.5% | 35.9% | 5.6 | 67.1% | 28.9% | |
| 1 | Victor Panov | F | Sr | 6'7" | 31-25 | 28.7 | 9.9 | 4.9 | 1.6 | 1.3 | 55.1% | 37.3% | 4.8 | 69.0% | 21.2% | |
| 7 | Eli Beard | G | Sr | 5'11" | 33-30 | 26.5 | 9.0 | 2.2 | 2.1 | 1.3 | 55.8% | 41.3% | 4.7 | 81.5% | 20.7% | |
| 5 | Josh Reed | G | So | 6'2" | 33-1 | 18.9 | 7.9 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 1.1 | 44.4% | 25.0% | 1.0 | 59.0% | 30.7% | |
| 13 | Garfield Turner | F | Sr | 6'8" | 30-4 | 19.6 | 7.1 | 5.1 | 1.1 | 1.0 | 62.3% | — | 0.0 | 56.5% | 21.3% | |
| 22 | Villiam Garcia Adsten | G | Jr | 6'8" | 32-10 | 17.6 | 3.5 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 38.8% | 29.8% | 1.5 | 54.8% | 19.4% | |
| 11 | Martin de LaPorterie | F | Jr | 7'1" | 33-29 | 13.0 | 3.0 | 3.1 | 0.3 | 0.9 | 51.2% | 33.3% | 0.5 | 70.0% | 17.5% | |
| 23 | Dillon Tingler | G | So | 6'7" | 29-0 | 9.9 | 3.6 | 1.9 | 0.4 | 0.7 | 52.0% | 37.8% | 1.3 | 92.9% | 22.5% | |
| 33 | Ralph Akuta | F | So | 7'1" | 29-0 | 4.9 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.1 | 0.4 | 58.8% | — | 0.0 | 33.3% | 22.3% | |
| 25 | Max Davis | G | Sr | 6'4" | 4-0 | 3.0 | 2.5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 0.8 | — | 26.8% | |
| 24 | Ignacio Campoy Galvez | F | Fr | 6'7" | 1-0 | 2.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | 0.0% | |
| 6 | Clem Edomwonyin | F | So | 6'9" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 2 | Moses Hipps | G | Fr | 6'4" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — |
Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.
Trends
Last 10 games of 2025-26Drexel
Against the spread
Season
16-13-3
Home
10-4-1
Road
5-7-2
Last 10
5-4-1
avg cover −1.0
Missed the spread in the last gameCovered 3 of 7 as an underdog, 1 push
Over / under
Season
13-18-1
Home
6-8-1
Road
6-8
Last 10
4-6
avg vs total +1.1
Under in the last gameOver in 2 of 7 as an underdog
Last 10 games, newest first
| Date | Opponent | Site | Result | Total | PPP for | PPP vs | Pace | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 8 | Monmouth | N | L 57–65 | +4.0 | L−4.0 | 137.5 | U122 | 88.2 | 100.6 | 64.6 |
| Mar 7 | Northeastern | N | W 84–77 | −5.0 | W+2.0 | 140.5 | O161 | 122.2 | 112.0 | 68.8 |
| Mar 3 | Hofstra | A | L 51–62 | +8.5 | L−2.5 | 133.0 | U113 | 89.9 | 109.3 | 56.7 |
| Feb 26 | Campbell | H | W 65–60 | −1.0 | W+4.0 | 141.5 | U125 | 102.0 | 94.2 | 63.7 |
| Feb 22 | Towson | H | W 68–62 | +2.5 | W+8.5 | 131.0 | U130 | 102.9 | 93.9 | 66.1 |
| Feb 19 | Northeastern | A | W 70–61 | +1.0 | W+10.0 | 145.0 | U131 | 104.4 | 91.0 | 67.0 |
| Feb 16 | Stony Brook | A | L 69–72 | +3.0 | P0.0 | 136.5 | O141 | 105.5 | 110.1 | 65.4 |
| Feb 12 | Monmouth | H | L 73–93 | −1.0 | L−21.0 | 134.0 | O166 | 101.8 | 129.7 | 71.7 |
| Feb 7 | Elon | A | W 82–77 | +5.0 | W+10.0 | 138.0 | O159 | 121.3 | 113.9 | 67.6 |
| Feb 5 | Campbell | A | L 60–81 | +4.0 | L−17.0 | 141.5 | U141 | 86.9 | 117.3 | 69.0 |
Virginia
Against the spread
Season
17-18-1
Home
9-8
Road
5-5
Last 10
3-6-1
avg cover −0.8
Missed the spread 2 straightCovered 2 of 7 as a favorite, 1 pushCovered 0 of 4 with a line of 10+
Over / under
Season
17-19
Home
6-11
Road
4-6
Last 10
7-3
avg vs total +3.5
Over 6 straightOver in 5 of 7 as a favoriteOver in 2 of 4 with a line of 10+
Last 10 games, newest first
| Date | Opponent | Site | Result | Total | PPP for | PPP vs | Pace | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 22 | #6Tennessee | N | L 72–79 | +1.0 | L−6.0 | 136.5 | O151 | 109.8 | 120.5 | 65.5 |
| Mar 20 | #14Wright St | N | W 82–73 | −18.0 | L−9.0 | 146.5 | O155 | 126.3 | 112.4 | 64.9 |
| Mar 14 | #1Duke | N | L 70–74 | +6.5 | W+2.5 | 139.5 | O144 | 110.1 | 116.4 | 63.5 |
| Mar 13 | Miami | N | W 84–62 | −3.5 | W+18.5 | 145.0 | O146 | 134.6 | 99.3 | 62.4 |
| Mar 12 | NC State | N | W 81–74 | −7.0 | P0.0 | 152.0 | O155 | 118.2 | 108.0 | 68.5 |
| Mar 7 | Virginia Tech | H | W 76–72 | −12.0 | L−8.0 | 146.5 | O148 | 114.6 | 108.5 | 66.3 |
| Mar 3 | Wake Forest | H | W 75–70 | −14.0 | L−9.0 | 149.5 | U145 | 110.3 | 102.9 | 68.0 |
| Feb 28 | #1Duke | A | L 51–77 | +10.0 | L−16.0 | 143.0 | U128 | 83.7 | 126.4 | 60.9 |
| Feb 24 | NC State | H | W 90–61 | −6.0 | W+23.0 | 152.0 | U151 | 128.0 | 86.7 | 70.3 |
| Feb 21 | Miami | H | W 86–83 | −7.5 | L−4.5 | 146.5 | O169 | 132.7 | 128.1 | 64.8 |
Records vs the closing line describe the past; ten games is a small sample.
Tale of the tape
national rank toned left for away, right for homeDrexelVirginia
Efficiency
104.5
117.4
106.3
101.2
66.3
67.1
—
—
Shooting
50.7%
54.6%
49.0%
54.9%
35.5%
36.2%
66.5%
72.8%
31.6%
32.3%
Ball control & glass
19.0%
16.0%
16.4%
15.4%
31.2%
37.9%
31.0%
29.2%
11.1%
9.6%
9.3%
10.0%
Style
40.0%
46.7%
42.7%
40.8%
11.0%
14.1%
53.6%
58.3%
33.8%
38.2%
Roster
3.24
2.24
6'5.6"
6'6"
83.7%
72.1%
Offseason
roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model inputDrexel
Returning minutes: 83.7%Returning production: 85.1%
Lost
- Kevon Vanderhorst 29.9 mpg, 9.3 ppg · transferred to Iona
- Horace Simmons Jr. 2.7 mpg, 0.7 ppg · transferred to Rider
Added
- Moses Hipps no D1 minutes last season
- Clem Edomwonyin no D1 minutes last season
No incoming D1 transfers are listed on ESPN's roster yet — until they are, returning shares read high.
Returns 84% of last season's minutes; lost 1 of its top 5 (1 transferred). Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026).
Virginia
Returning minutes: 72.1%Returning production: 68.7%
Lost
- Malik Thomas 22.7 mpg, 12.4 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Ugonna Onyenso 18.7 mpg, 6.5 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Jacari White 15.4 mpg, 8.1 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
Added
- Silas Barksdale no D1 minutes last season
No incoming D1 transfers are listed on ESPN's roster yet — until they are, returning shares read high.
Returns 72% of last season's minutes; lost 1 of its top 5. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026).
Head-to-head
this season and lastNo meetings the last two seasons.
The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — Pinnacle's spread and total (the median across books when Pinnacle has no line). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, built bottom-up from those same numbers: expected possessions times each side's opponent-adjusted points per possession, plus home court.
What these numbers mean: line shopping.