CBB Matchups

Every D1 game with tempo-free ratings, four factors and market lines, one place.

College basketball is being built for the 2026-27 season (tip-off Nov 3). What's here fills in as games are played.

Non-conferenceThomas M. Ryan Center, Kingston, RI

Holy Cross

Efficiency #325

2025-26: 11-22 · 6-14 conf

Rhode Island

Efficiency #137

2025-26: 16-16 · 7-12 conf

Tue, Nov 3 · 7:00 PM ET

63.8

win 16%

Projected

75.1

win 84%

No line posted yet.

Model: URI −11.3 · total 138.9 · ratings as of Sat, Oct 3

Preseason ratings start from 2025-26's final adjusted ratings, regressed toward the D1 average. The stats below are 2025-26's too; both update once 2026-27 games are played.

How the projection is built

each step, from an average D-I game to this one

Projected total

Average D-I game

148.2

PaceAdjusted tempo: Rhode Island 67.3, Holy Cross 67.1 → 66.1 possessions

−4.9

Rhode Island offense vs Holy Cross defense

+1.6

Holy Cross offense vs Rhode Island defense

−6.0

Projected total

138.9

Axis starts at 135 pointsPoints added or removed at each step

Projected margin

Even game

0.0

Rhode Island offense vs Holy Cross defense

+1.6

Holy Cross offense vs Rhode Island defense

+6.0

Home court+2.9 points per 100 possessions to the home offense, −2.9 to the visitors

+3.8

Rhode Island by 11.3

11.3

Holy Cross side ◂▸ Rhode Island side

Steps are rounded to one decimal, so they can differ from the total by 0.1: the margin steps add to +11.4 against +11.3. The margin is the same build seen from the home side; positive numbers help Rhode Island.

Pace & total

possessions per 40 minutes

Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes

Projected possessions: 66.1, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw 2025-26 season pace, Rhode Island is the faster team (66.0, #295 of 365) and Holy Cross the slower (65.8, #302). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (study weights 0.80 vs 0.66).

Projected possessions

66.1

per team, 40 min

Projected total

138.9

model

Projected team totals

63.8 / 75.1

Holy Cross / Rhode Island

Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent

67.1#280

Holy Cross

67.3#267

Rhode Island

How this game plays

what the study found each side's numbers actually do when these two teams meet

Pace

Half-court grind

Rhode Island averages 66.0 possessions per 40, Holy Cross 65.8. Slower teams pull the pace toward themselves more than fast teams push it (0.80 vs 0.66 in five seasons of games), so expect about 65 — more possessions mean more points in the total and more chances for the better team to separate.

AdvantageHoly Cross

Where Holy Cross struggles: the offensive glass

Holy Cross rebounds 21.9% of its own misses (#356); Rhode Island lets opponents grab 31.8% of their own misses (#247). Expect about 25.1%, 5.3 points below an average D1 matchup — worth roughly -3.2 points per 100 possessions.

TurnoversHoly Cross

Holy Cross turns it over

Projected turnover rate of 18.7% is worth roughly -2.3 points per 100 possessions against Holy Cross's offense.

DefenseRhode Island

Rhode Island's ball-hawking

Rhode Island ranks #15 nationally in steal rate — one of the few defensive numbers that travels. Expect about 11.6% of Holy Cross's possessions to end in a steal against this defense.

Watch for noise

3-point caution

A notable season 3-point number here (Rhode Island) is close to a coin flip going forward — the study's model of next-game 3P% barely beats guessing the D1 average. Shot volume is what actually carries: expect Holy Cross at about 39.0% of its shots from three, Rhode Island about 42.4%.

AdvantageRhode Island

Where Rhode Island scores: shooting

Rhode Island shoots an effective 50.1% (#231); Holy Cross allows 54.8% (#324). Expect about 52.4%, 1.1 points above an average D1 matchup — worth roughly +1.6 points per 100 possessions.

Holy Cross has the ball

OffenseRhode Island allowsvs D1 avg

49.8% #248

50.4% #124

-1.8 pt/100

15.3% #86

21.1% #10

-2.3 pt/100

21.9% #356

31.8% #247

-3.2 pt/100

31.5% #268

42.6% #331

+0.3 pt/100

77.2% #29

—

+0.4 pt/100

Holy Cross net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: -6.7 pts/100

Rhode Island has the ball

OffenseHoly Cross allowsvs D1 avg

50.1% #231

54.8% #324

+1.6 pt/100

19.2% #329

14.1% #332

+0.4 pt/100

31.0% #163

27.0% #37

-0.7 pt/100

38.4% #92

27.6% #30

-0.4 pt/100

72.1% #206

—

-0.0 pt/100

Rhode Island net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: +0.9 pts/100

Shot diet

Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot · 2025-26 numbers

Holy Crossoffense vsRhode Islanddefense

Share of shots by zone

Holy Cross shoots

33.1

8.5

22.4

36.0

Rhode Island allows

42.2

3.4

12.6

41.9

D-I average

38.5

6.4

15.8

39.3

FG% by zone

Zone			D-I avg
Rim	54.6%#310	55.3%#71	58.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)	46.2%#49	34.0%#44	39.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)	46.0%#7	31.0%#10	38.0%
Three	32.5%#252	34.7%#232	33.7%

Rhode Islandoffense vsHoly Crossdefense

Share of shots by zone

Rhode Island shoots

38.4

4.6

13.1

43.9

Holy Cross allows

41.5

6.4

13.3

38.9

D-I average

38.5

6.4

15.8

39.3

FG% by zone

Zone			D-I avg
Rim	56.1%#269	63.4%#333	58.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)	39.2%#192	50.0%#354	39.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)	42.5%#49	43.3%#332	38.0%
Three	31.1%#318	34.0%#181	33.7%

RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three

Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).

Shot volume

Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line · 2025-26 numbers

Holy Cross

−1.3extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#248 of 365

Off reb %

21.9%

#356

Def reb %

73.0%

#37

Turnover %

15.3%

#86

Forced TO %

14.1%

#332

FT rate

31.5%

#268

FT allowed

27.6%

#30

Where the chances come from (per game)

Offensive rebounding−2.8

Defensive rebounding+1.2

Ball security+1.0

Forcing turnovers−1.8

Foul shots drawn−0.9

Foul shots allowed+2.0

Rhode Island

+0.1extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#175 of 365

Off reb %

31.0%

#163

Def reb %

68.2%

#247

Turnover %

19.2%

#329

Forced TO %

21.1%

#10

FT rate

38.4%

#92

FT allowed

42.6%

#331

Where the chances come from (per game)

Offensive rebounding+0.2

Defensive rebounding−0.4

Ball security−1.7

Forcing turnovers+3.0

Foul shots drawn+0.9

Foul shots allowed−1.9

Rhode Island has more extra scoring chances per game: +0.1 (#175 of 365) to Holy Cross’s −1.3 (#248).

Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).

Rotation

Holy Cross2025-26 numbers

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
21	Gabe Warren	G	Jr	6'6"	33-33	31.6	12.5	4.5	1.5	1.3	52.4%	33.7%	2.6	73.1%	23.5%
0	Tyler Boston	G	So	6'0"	32-32	32.0	14.2	3.7	3.6	1.8	49.7%	35.9%	4.0	82.3%	27.2%
2	DeAndre Williams	G	Jr	6'3"	33-18	25.5	7.9	3.2	1.8	1.4	48.1%	31.1%	2.7	81.0%	21.7%
23	Aidan Richard	F	So	6'6"	30-24	27.2	5.2	4.1	0.8	0.8	38.9%	22.3%	3.7	51.4%	16.1%
30	Joe Nugent	G	Jr	6'6"	21-21	29.7	11.8	3.6	0.7	0.9	59.1%	40.7%	5.6	87.2%	21.2%
4	John St. Germain III	G	Jr	6'1"	31-0	15.5	4.5	1.2	1.0	0.7	48.6%	36.0%	0.8	78.7%	18.8%
34	Declan Ryan	F	Jr	6'8"	26-4	13.5	4.9	2.2	0.7	1.2	55.2%	25.0%	0.5	62.5%	24.9%
1	Will Aljancic	F	Jr	6'6"	17-0	11.8	3.1	1.9	0.3	0.9	46.2%	25.0%	0.7	30.0%	21.7%
22	Chuck Hare	F	So	6'10"	24-3	7.7	2.2	1.7	0.1	0.3	46.7%	—	0.0	62.5%	19.7%
5	Jaden Kirkwood	G	Sr	6'5"	16-1	6.5	0.6	1.2	0.5	0.2	34.6%	16.7%	0.4	—	9.2%
11	Jude Haigh	G	Fr	6'5"	13-0	6.9	1.8	0.7	0.3	0.2	37.0%	27.3%	1.7	100.0%	20.8%
15	Tim Finau	F	Fr	6'11"	8-0	2.3	0.6	0.8	0.0	0.1	33.3%	0.0%	0.1	33.3%	28.7%
33	Austin Mejia	G	So	6'3"	7-0	1.7	0.0	0.1	0.1	0.1	—	—	0.0	—	4.8%
25	Ethan Clark	F	Fr	6'7"	7-0	1.4	0.0	0.6	0.0	0.1	—	—	0.0	—	5.9%
3	Ben Capron	G	Sr	6'0"	3-0	1.3	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	0.0%

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Rhode Island2025-26 numbers

ESPN hasn't posted Rhode Island's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
23	Tyler Cochran	G	Sr	6'4"	32-31	30.9	15.4	6.2	1.8	2.1	50.3%	33.5%	5.1	72.3%	31.6%
5	Jonah Hinton	G	Jr	6'3"	29-27	32.4	12.6	3.0	2.1	2.0	48.0%	31.9%	8.2	81.9%	26.3%
40	Keeyan Itejere	F	Sr	6'9"	32-32	28.5	7.6	5.7	0.5	1.4	64.8%	—	0.0	68.6%	15.1%
20	Myles Corey	G	Sr	6'1"	32-31	25.4	9.3	3.1	1.7	1.5	54.2%	24.3%	2.3	73.3%	22.6%
22	RJ Johnson	G	Sr	6'1"	30-9	25.0	5.7	1.7	3.7	1.5	43.2%	28.0%	1.7	91.8%	17.3%
0	Jahmere Tripp	F	Jr	6'6"	27-10	24.6	12.0	4.3	1.5	1.9	53.3%	41.0%	3.1	73.6%	30.2%
8	Alex Crawford	F	Sr	6'8"	32-19	19.4	5.0	3.3	0.2	1.1	44.8%	27.3%	2.1	48.8%	20.4%
7	Jalen Harper	G	Fr	6'3"	26-1	11.7	2.6	1.8	0.3	0.5	38.7%	28.6%	1.3	67.9%	17.4%
21	Damone King	G	Fr	6'2"	22-0	7.7	2.3	0.5	0.2	0.3	47.9%	25.9%	1.2	85.7%	20.0%
55	Drissa Traore	F	Sr	6'8"	22-0	7.5	1.2	1.3	0.1	0.5	37.0%	14.3%	0.6	35.3%	16.7%
35	Mouhamed Sow	F	Sr	6'9"	5-0	20.0	6.4	5.6	0.2	0.6	51.9%	20.0%	1.0	62.5%	19.1%
10	Barrett Loer	G	Fr	6'6"	5-0	3.6	1.4	0.6	0.2	0.4	35.7%	25.0%	0.8	100.0%	32.6%
30	Jimmy Ball	G	Sr	6'2"	1-0	1.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	0.0%
11	Javon Perry	F	Fr	6'8"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—
13	Jaymien Aponte	G	So	6'3"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—
2	Miftah Ibiyemi	G	Jr	6'3"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—
17	Moek Icke	C	Fr	7'1"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Holy Cross2025-26 numbers

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
21	Gabe Warren	G	Jr	6'6"	33-33	31.6	12.5	4.5	1.5	1.3	52.4%	33.7%	2.6	73.1%	23.5%
0	Tyler Boston	G	So	6'0"	32-32	32.0	14.2	3.7	3.6	1.8	49.7%	35.9%	4.0	82.3%	27.2%
2	DeAndre Williams	G	Jr	6'3"	33-18	25.5	7.9	3.2	1.8	1.4	48.1%	31.1%	2.7	81.0%	21.7%
23	Aidan Richard	F	So	6'6"	30-24	27.2	5.2	4.1	0.8	0.8	38.9%	22.3%	3.7	51.4%	16.1%
30	Joe Nugent	G	Jr	6'6"	21-21	29.7	11.8	3.6	0.7	0.9	59.1%	40.7%	5.6	87.2%	21.2%
4	John St. Germain III	G	Jr	6'1"	31-0	15.5	4.5	1.2	1.0	0.7	48.6%	36.0%	0.8	78.7%	18.8%
34	Declan Ryan	F	Jr	6'8"	26-4	13.5	4.9	2.2	0.7	1.2	55.2%	25.0%	0.5	62.5%	24.9%
1	Will Aljancic	F	Jr	6'6"	17-0	11.8	3.1	1.9	0.3	0.9	46.2%	25.0%	0.7	30.0%	21.7%
22	Chuck Hare	F	So	6'10"	24-3	7.7	2.2	1.7	0.1	0.3	46.7%	—	0.0	62.5%	19.7%
5	Jaden Kirkwood	G	Sr	6'5"	16-1	6.5	0.6	1.2	0.5	0.2	34.6%	16.7%	0.4	—	9.2%
11	Jude Haigh	G	Fr	6'5"	13-0	6.9	1.8	0.7	0.3	0.2	37.0%	27.3%	1.7	100.0%	20.8%
15	Tim Finau	F	Fr	6'11"	8-0	2.3	0.6	0.8	0.0	0.1	33.3%	0.0%	0.1	33.3%	28.7%
33	Austin Mejia	G	So	6'3"	7-0	1.7	0.0	0.1	0.1	0.1	—	—	0.0	—	4.8%
25	Ethan Clark	F	Fr	6'7"	7-0	1.4	0.0	0.6	0.0	0.1	—	—	0.0	—	5.9%
3	Ben Capron	G	Sr	6'0"	3-0	1.3	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	0.0%

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Trends

Last 10 games of 2025-26

Holy Cross

Against the spread

Season

16-15

Home

6-6

Road

9-9

Last 10

5-5

avg cover 0.0

Covered 2 straightCovered 5 of 8 as an underdog

Over / under

Season

15-16

Home

7-5

Road

8-10

Last 10

5-5

avg vs total +3.2

Under in the last gameOver in 4 of 8 as an underdog

Last 10 games, newest first

Date	Opponent	Site	Result			Total		PPP for	PPP vs	Pace
Mar 5	LehighAdjEM #273	A	L 66–69	+5.5	W+2.5	142.5	U135	99.1	103.6	66.6
Mar 3	LafayetteAdjEM #319	A	W 82–77	+4.5	W+9.5	141.5	O159	121.4	114.0	67.5
Feb 28	Loyola MDAdjEM #313	H	L 62–76	−1.0	L−15.0	151.0	U138	97.9	120.0	63.3
Feb 25	Boston UAdjEM #237	A	L 63–78	+8.5	L−6.5	142.0	U141	99.0	122.5	63.7
Feb 22	BucknellAdjEM #334	A	W 72–63	+2.5	W+11.5	141.5	U135	109.4	95.7	65.8
Feb 18	LafayetteAdjEM #319	H	L 83–86	−2.0	L−5.0	139.5	O169	116.1	120.3	71.5
Feb 15	Loyola MDAdjEM #313	A	L 73–83	+4.5	L−5.5	145.5	O156	112.2	127.5	65.1
Feb 11	ColgateAdjEM #223	H	L 70–74	+8.0	W+4.0	143.0	O144	102.3	108.1	68.5
Feb 7	LehighAdjEM #273	H	W 76–67	+1.5	W+10.5	137.0	O143	117.2	103.3	64.8
Feb 2	Boston UAdjEM #237	H	L 64–72	+2.0	L−6.0	140.0	U136	110.1	123.9	58.1

Rhode Island

Against the spread

Season

12-18-2

Home

6-9-1

Road

4-6-1

Last 10

2-7-1

avg cover −4.0

Missed the spread 2 straightCovered 1 of 5 as a favoriteCovered 1 of 5 as an underdog, 1 push

Over / under

Season

14-18

Home

8-8

Road

4-7

Last 10

4-6

avg vs total −7.3

Under 4 straightOver in 2 of 5 as a favoriteOver in 2 of 5 as an underdog

Last 10 games, newest first

Date	Opponent	Site	Result			Total		PPP for	PPP vs	Pace
Mar 12	DuquesneAdjEM #131	N	L 61–67	+1.5	L−4.5	138.5	U128	102.3	112.4	59.6
Mar 7	FordhamAdjEM #170	A	L 49–61	+2.0	L−10.0	135.5	U110	75.8	94.4	64.6
Mar 4	DuquesneAdjEM #131	H	W 64–52	−2.5	W+9.5	143.0	U116	98.1	79.7	65.3
Feb 28	Saint Joseph'sAdjEM #118	H	L 55–61	−2.0	L−8.0	141.0	U116	78.3	86.8	70.3
Feb 26	St BonaventureAdjEM #138	A	L 76–94	+3.0	L−15.0	143.0	O170	108.9	134.7	69.8
Feb 21	La SalleAdjEM #256	A	L 46–59	−4.0	L−17.0	137.0	U105	74.7	95.8	61.6
Feb 17	#18Saint LouisAdjEM #20	H	W 81–76	+9.5	W+14.5	152.0	O157	108.6	101.9	74.6
Feb 14	FordhamAdjEM #170	H	L 66–70 OT	−5.0	L−9.0	132.5	O136	95.5	101.2	69.1
Feb 10	G WashingtonAdjEM #68	A	L 70–75	+5.0	P0.0	152.0	U145	103.3	110.6	67.8
Feb 7	RichmondAdjEM #150	H	W 82–77	−6.0	L−1.0	141.0	O159	120.5	113.2	68.0

Records vs the closing line describe the past; ten games is a small sample.

Tale of the tape

national rank toned left for away, right for home

Holy CrossRhode Island

Efficiency

103.6

106.3

113.1

104.4

67.1

67.3

—

Shooting

49.8%

50.1%

50.4%

52.8%

32.5%

31.1%

77.2%

72.1%

31.5%

38.4%

Ball control & glass

15.3%

19.2%

14.1%

21.1%

21.9%

31.0%

27.0%

31.8%

9.7%

11.9%

8.3%

10.2%

Style

37.3%

43.5%

41.4%

40.5%

10.3%

16.5%

44.7%

47.9%

27.9%

29.0%

Roster

2.63

3.52

6'4.3"

6'4.5"

87.9%

—

Offseason

roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model input

Holy Cross

Returning minutes: 87.9%Returning production: 86.0%

Lost

Aiden Disu 24.1 mpg, 9.5 ppg · transferred to Iona

Added

Nobody of note.

No incoming D1 transfers are listed on ESPN's roster yet — until they are, returning shares read high.

Returns 88% of last season's minutes; lost 1 of its top 5 (1 transferred). Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026).

Rhode Island

Returning minutes: 100.0%Returning production: 100.0%

ESPN hasn't posted Rhode Island's roster for this season yet — no movement to show.

Returns 100% of last season's minutes. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026). (ESPN hasn't posted this season's roster yet -- this may still be last season's list.)

Head-to-head

this season and last

No meetings the last two seasons.

The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — Pinnacle's spread and total (the median across books when Pinnacle has no line). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, built bottom-up from those same numbers: expected possessions times each side's opponent-adjusted points per possession, plus home court.

What these numbers mean: line shopping.