CBB Matchups

Every D1 game with tempo-free ratings, four factors and market lines, one place.

College basketball is being built for the 2026-27 season (tip-off Nov 3). What's here fills in as games are played.
Conference gameMcCann Arena, Poughkeepsie, NY
Sacred Heart
Efficiency #278
2025-26: 14-19 · 10-12 conf
@
Marist
Efficiency #153
2025-26: 19-12 · 13-9 conf
Fri, Dec 4 · 7:00 PM ET
67.4
win 22%
Projected
76.1
win 78%
No line posted yet.
Model: MRST −8.8 · total 143.5 · ratings as of Sat, Oct 3
Preseason ratings start from 2025-26's final adjusted ratings, regressed toward the D1 average. The stats below are 2025-26's too; both update once 2026-27 games are played.

How the projection is built

each step, from an average D-I game to this one
Projected total
Average D-I game
148.2
PaceAdjusted tempo: Marist 67.6, Sacred Heart 69.0 → 68.2 possessions
−0.3
Marist offense vs Sacred Heart defense
+0.2
Sacred Heart offense vs Marist defense
−4.7
Projected total
143.5
Axis starts at 140 pointsPoints added or removed at each step
Projected margin
Even game
0.0
Marist offense vs Sacred Heart defense
+0.2
Sacred Heart offense vs Marist defense
+4.7
Home court+2.9 points per 100 possessions to the home offense, −2.9 to the visitors
+3.9
Marist by 8.8
8.8
Sacred Heart side ◂▸ Marist side

Steps are rounded to one decimal, so they can differ from the total by 0.1: the total steps add to 143.4 against a projected 143.5. The margin is the same build seen from the home side; positive numbers help Marist.

Pace & total

possessions per 40 minutes
Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes

Projected possessions: 68.2, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw 2025-26 season pace, Sacred Heart is the faster team (68.4, #179 of 365) and Marist the slower (66.5, #271). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (study weights 0.80 vs 0.66).

Projected possessions
68.2
per team, 40 min
Projected total
143.5
model
Projected team totals
67.4 / 76.1
Sacred Heart / Marist
Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent
69.0#126
Sacred Heart
67.6#246
Marist

How this game plays

what the study found each side's numbers actually do when these two teams meet
AdvantageSacred Heart
Where Sacred Heart struggles: shooting
Sacred Heart shoots an effective 52.0% (#145); Marist allows 45.6% (#5). Expect about 48.8%, 2.5 points below an average D1 matchup — worth roughly -3.5 points per 100 possessions.
TurnoversSacred Heart
Sacred Heart turns it over
Projected turnover rate of 19.0% is worth roughly -2.7 points per 100 possessions against Sacred Heart's offense.
ClashMarist
Style match: ball movement
Marist assists on 58.9% of its made baskets; Sacred Heart allows assists on 59.8% of opponents' baskets (D1 average 52.4%). Expect about 61.4% — both habits push the same way.
Watch for noise
3-point caution
A notable season 3-point number here (Marist's defense) is close to a coin flip going forward — the study's model of next-game 3P% barely beats guessing the D1 average. Shot volume is what actually carries: expect Sacred Heart at about 46.7% of its shots from three, Marist about 38.1%.
AdvantageMarist
Where Marist scores: ball control
Marist turns it over on 16.9% of possessions (#193); Sacred Heart forces turnovers on 14.5% of opponent possessions (#320). Expect about 15.4%, 1.4 points below an average D1 matchup — worth roughly +1.7 points per 100 possessions.
ClashMarist
Style clash: 3-point volume
Marist rarely shoots threes (34.6% of its shots); Sacred Heart lets opponents take 43.5% of their shots from three (D1 average 39.5%). Expect about 38.1% — the offense's habit usually carries a bit more weight (0.80 vs 0.64).
Sacred Heart has the ball
OffenseMarist allowsvs D1 avg
52.0% #145
45.6% #5
-3.5 pt/100
17.7% #250
19.5% #34
-2.7 pt/100
28.6% #246
28.3% #77
-1.4 pt/100
31.0% #281
37.6% #252
-0.1 pt/100
78.0% #19
—
+0.5 pt/100
Sacred Heart net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: -7.3 pts/100
Marist has the ball
OffenseSacred Heart allowsvs D1 avg
49.3% #276
53.5% #283
-0.0 pt/100
16.9% #193
14.5% #320
+1.7 pt/100
29.1% #233
30.9% #199
-0.4 pt/100
25.7% #360
27.0% #24
-1.2 pt/100
78.1% #16
—
+0.5 pt/100
Marist net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: +0.6 pts/100

Shot diet

Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot · 2025-26 numbers
Sacred Heartoffense vsMaristdefense
Share of shots by zone
Sacred Heart shoots
Marist allows
D-I average
FG% by zone
ZoneD-I avg
Rim57.1%#22554.0%#4058.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)41.2%#14136.7%#10539.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)35.5%#27734.9%#7238.0%
Three35.7%#7328.6%#233.7%
Maristoffense vsSacred Heartdefense
Share of shots by zone
Marist shoots
Sacred Heart allows
D-I average
FG% by zone
ZoneD-I avg
Rim58.4%#18160.4%#24658.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)40.7%#15248.2%#34139.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)40.5%#9238.1%#16238.0%
Three32.2%#27234.8%#24133.7%
RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three

Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).

Shot volume

Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line · 2025-26 numbers
Sacred Heart
−1.7extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#261 of 365
Off reb %
28.6%
#246
Def reb %
69.1%
#199
Turnover %
17.7%
#250
Forced TO %
14.5%
#320
FT rate
31.0%
#281
FT allowed
27.0%
#24
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding−0.6
Defensive rebounding−0.1
Ball security−0.6
Forcing turnovers−1.5
Foul shots drawn−1.0
Foul shots allowed+2.1
Marist
−0.8extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#218 of 365
Off reb %
29.1%
#233
Def reb %
71.7%
#77
Turnover %
16.9%
#193
Forced TO %
19.5%
#34
FT rate
25.7%
#360
FT allowed
37.6%
#252
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding−0.4
Defensive rebounding+0.8
Ball security−0.1
Forcing turnovers+1.9
Foul shots drawn−2.4
Foul shots allowed−0.6

Marist has more extra scoring chances per game: −0.8 (#218 of 365) to Sacred Heart’s −1.7 (#261).

Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).

Rotation

Sacred Heart2025-26 numbers
#PlayerPosClHtGP-GSMPGPPGRPGAPGTOVeFG%3P%3PA/gFT%UsageStatus
0Jaden SlaughterGSr6'5"32-920.75.33.31.10.950.7%35.5%1.079.5%16.4%
6Jo Van Buggenhoutat Indiana StGJr6'3"26-620.86.32.13.11.547.7%28.7%3.164.3%22.2%
13Abdou YaddFSo6'9"26-514.96.22.50.61.346.5%28.9%3.272.7%30.4%
24Jaylen Robinsonat RichmondFJr6'7"31-010.32.71.50.90.561.6%20.0%0.235.9%16.3%
11Samson Reillyat QuinnipiacGJr6'2"27-29.34.50.60.40.263.3%48.1%2.960.0%22.8%
55Malik SheppardGJr5'10"3-01.70.70.00.00.350.0%0.0%0.3—34.8%
8Jeremiah JacobsGSo6'8"1-03.04.01.00.00.0100.0%—0.0—38.5%
1Griffin BarroukGSr6'5"0-00.00.00.00.00.0——0.0——
21Kevin PikiellGFr6'3"0-00.00.00.00.00.0——0.0——
3Mooda GittensGFr6'4"0-00.00.00.00.00.0——0.0——
15DJ BrownGFr6'3"0-00.00.00.00.00.0——0.0——
23Jojo WallaceGJr6'3"0-00.00.00.00.00.0——0.0——
10Kedrick CurtisFSr6'7"0-00.00.00.00.00.0——0.0——
14Landon KrygierFFr6'5"0-00.00.00.00.00.0——0.0——
Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.
Transfers in: Samson Reilly (from Quinnipiac), Jaylen Robinson (from Richmond), Jo Van Buggenhout (from Indiana St)

Tale of the tape

national rank toned left for away, right for home
Sacred HeartMarist
Efficiency
107.6
103.6
113.6
102.6
69.0
67.6
—
—
Shooting
52.0%
49.3%
50.4%
49.8%
35.7%
32.2%
78.0%
78.1%
31.0%
25.7%
Ball control & glass
17.7%
16.9%
14.5%
19.5%
28.6%
29.1%
30.9%
28.3%
10.2%
10.0%
9.3%
8.3%
Style
50.7%
34.6%
34.4%
43.6%
11.8%
11.2%
58.6%
58.9%
24.0%
35.5%
Roster
3.12
3.46
6'5.2"
6'3.8"
16.0%
26.9%

Offseason

roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model input
Sacred Heart
Returning minutes: 16.0%Returning production: 11.8%
Lost
  • Dashon Gittens 33.0 mpg, 13.1 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
  • Yann Farell 29.8 mpg, 11.4 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
  • Nyle Ralph-Beyer 28.7 mpg, 13.3 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
  • Mekhi Conner 27.8 mpg, 7.2 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
  • Anquan Hill 26.6 mpg, 14.4 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
  • Fallou Gueye 10.8 mpg, 2.7 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
Added
  • Jo Van Buggenhout from Indiana St · 16.9 mpg, 5.1 ppg last season
  • Jaylen Robinson from Richmond · 10.0 mpg, 2.6 ppg last season
  • Samson Reilly from Quinnipiac · 7.8 mpg, 3.8 ppg last season
  • Kevin Pikiell no D1 minutes last season
  • Griffin Barrouk no D1 minutes last season
  • Landon Krygier no D1 minutes last season

Returns 16% of last season's minutes; lost 5 of its top 5. Teams returning under 40% of last season's minutes have historically fallen about 0.8 points of AdjEM (n=716 team-seasons, 2022-2026).

Marist
Returning minutes: 26.9%Returning production: 25.0%
Lost
  • Rhyjon Blackwell 30.1 mpg, 12.1 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
  • Justin Menard 29.3 mpg, 12.9 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
  • Elijah Lewis 22.9 mpg, 9.3 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
  • Jaden Daughtry 21.0 mpg, 5.1 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
  • Parby Kabamba 16.8 mpg, 5.4 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
  • Jason Schofield 14.0 mpg, 6.7 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
Added
  • Jack Graham from New Hampshire · 28.0 mpg, 11.2 ppg last season
  • Cameron Sweeney no D1 minutes last season
  • Josh Williams no D1 minutes last season
  • Edward Onyia no D1 minutes last season
  • Logan Franz no D1 minutes last season
  • Logan Rodriguez no D1 minutes last season

Returns 27% of last season's minutes; lost 4 of its top 5. Teams returning under 40% of last season's minutes have historically fallen about 0.8 points of AdjEM (n=716 team-seasons, 2022-2026).

Head-to-head

this season and last
DateSeasonResult
Sun, Feb 222025-26Sacred Heart 63 – 65 Marist
Fri, Jan 92025-26Marist 76 – 72 Sacred Heart

The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — Pinnacle's spread and total (the median across books when Pinnacle has no line). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, built bottom-up from those same numbers: expected possessions times each side's opponent-adjusted points per possession, plus home court.

What these numbers mean: line shopping.