CBB Matchups

Every D1 game with tempo-free ratings, four factors and market lines, one place.

College basketball is being built for the 2026-27 season (tip-off Nov 3). What's here fills in as games are played.
Non-conferenceBogota Savings Bank Center, Hackensack, NJ
Lafayette
Efficiency #319
2025-26: 11-21 · 8-11 conf
@
FDU
Efficiency #332
2025-26: 11-21 · 8-11 conf
Fri, Dec 4 · TBD
69.4
win 40%
Projected
72.5
win 60%
No line posted yet.
Model: FDU −3.1 · total 141.9 · ratings as of Sat, Oct 3
Preseason ratings start from 2025-26's final adjusted ratings, regressed toward the D1 average. The stats below are 2025-26's too; both update once 2026-27 games are played.

How the projection is built

each step, from an average D-I game to this one
Projected total
Average D-I game
148.2
PaceAdjusted tempo: FDU 66.2, Lafayette 68.0 → 65.8 possessions
−5.5
FDU offense vs Lafayette defense
−0.8
Lafayette offense vs FDU defense
−0.1
Projected total
141.9
Axis starts at 135 pointsPoints added or removed at each step
Projected margin
Even game
0.0
FDU offense vs Lafayette defense
−0.8
Lafayette offense vs FDU defense
+0.1
Home court+2.9 points per 100 possessions to the home offense, −2.9 to the visitors
+3.8
FDU by 3.1
3.1
Lafayette side ◂▸ FDU side

Steps are rounded to one decimal, so they can differ from the total by 0.1: the total steps add to 141.8 against a projected 141.9. The margin is the same build seen from the home side; positive numbers help FDU.

Pace & total

possessions per 40 minutes
Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes

Projected possessions: 65.8, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw 2025-26 season pace, Lafayette is the faster team (66.9, #248 of 365) and FDU the slower (64.1, #352). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (study weights 0.80 vs 0.66).

Projected possessions
65.8
per team, 40 min
Projected total
141.9
model
Projected team totals
69.4 / 72.5
Lafayette / FDU
Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent
68.0#214
Lafayette
66.2#337
FDU

How this game plays

what the study found each side's numbers actually do when these two teams meet
Pace
Half-court grind
FDU averages 64.1 possessions per 40, Lafayette 66.9. Slower teams pull the pace toward themselves more than fast teams push it (0.80 vs 0.66 in five seasons of games), so expect about 64 — more possessions mean more points in the total and more chances for the better team to separate.
AdvantageLafayette
Where Lafayette struggles: the offensive glass
Lafayette rebounds 25.8% of its own misses (#326); FDU lets opponents grab 27.3% of their own misses (#46). Expect about 25.7%, 4.7 points below an average D1 matchup — worth roughly -2.9 points per 100 possessions.
Watch for noise
3-point caution
A notable season 3-point number here (FDU, FDU's defense) is close to a coin flip going forward — the study's model of next-game 3P% barely beats guessing the D1 average. Shot volume is what actually carries: expect Lafayette at about 40.4% of its shots from three, FDU about 43.1%.
AdvantageFDU
Where FDU struggles: shooting
FDU shoots an effective 47.1% (#333); Lafayette allows 53.6% (#286). Expect about 50.1%, 1.2 points below an average D1 matchup — worth roughly -1.7 points per 100 possessions.
TurnoversLafayette
Lafayette protects the ball
Projected turnover rate of 15.5% is worth roughly +1.5 points per 100 possessions for Lafayette's offense.
Lafayette has the ball
OffenseFDU allowsvs D1 avg
49.3% #278
55.2% #336
+1.2 pt/100
15.3% #90
16.1% #216
+1.5 pt/100
25.8% #326
27.3% #46
-2.9 pt/100
32.4% #249
36.3% #217
-0.1 pt/100
68.9% #303
—
-0.3 pt/100
Lafayette net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: -0.5 pts/100
FDU has the ball
OffenseLafayette allowsvs D1 avg
47.1% #333
53.6% #286
-1.7 pt/100
18.1% #280
15.1% #276
+0.3 pt/100
32.0% #125
28.6% #88
+0.1 pt/100
32.8% #240
30.6% #76
-0.5 pt/100
70.1% #272
—
-0.2 pt/100
FDU net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: -1.9 pts/100

Shot diet

Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot · 2025-26 numbers
Lafayetteoffense vsFDUdefense
Share of shots by zone
Lafayette shoots
FDU allows
D-I average
FG% by zone
ZoneD-I avg
Rim57.1%#23160.0%#22458.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)40.7%#15238.5%#14839.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)32.9%#33143.3%#33138.0%
Three32.2%#27337.8%#35433.7%
FDUoffense vsLafayettedefense
Share of shots by zone
FDU shoots
Lafayette allows
D-I average
FG% by zone
ZoneD-I avg
Rim57.1%#23662.6%#31458.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)37.3%#23941.5%#22439.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)32.5%#33737.7%#15238.0%
Three30.3%#33936.0%#29833.7%
RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three

Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).

Shot volume

Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line · 2025-26 numbers
Lafayette
−0.4extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#194 of 365
Off reb %
25.8%
#326
Def reb %
71.4%
#88
Turnover %
15.3%
#90
Forced TO %
15.1%
#276
FT rate
32.4%
#249
FT allowed
30.6%
#76
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding−1.5
Defensive rebounding+0.6
Ball security+1.0
Forcing turnovers−1.1
Foul shots drawn−0.7
Foul shots allowed+1.2
FDU
−0.6extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#205 of 365
Off reb %
32.0%
#125
Def reb %
72.7%
#46
Turnover %
18.1%
#280
Forced TO %
16.1%
#216
FT rate
32.8%
#240
FT allowed
36.3%
#217
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding+0.5
Defensive rebounding+1.1
Ball security−0.9
Forcing turnovers−0.4
Foul shots drawn−0.6
Foul shots allowed−0.3

Lafayette has more extra scoring chances per game: −0.4 (#194 of 365) to FDU’s −0.6 (#205).

Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).

Rotation

Lafayette2025-26 numbers
#PlayerPosClHtGP-GSMPGPPGRPGAPGTOVeFG%3P%3PA/gFT%UsageStatus
21Andrew PhillipsGSo6'4"32-3233.413.94.61.31.148.1%31.1%6.571.3%26.3%
1Caleb WilliamsGFr6'0"31-3132.716.13.63.22.248.3%33.2%7.487.9%31.1%
22Christian Humphrey-RembertFFr—32-3130.17.76.60.50.752.4%37.2%4.966.0%15.6%
44Shareef JacksonFFr6'8"30-3022.110.05.01.62.157.1%0.0%0.152.4%29.6%
0Ryan PettitGJr6'2"28-320.85.63.31.50.752.0%25.0%1.458.3%16.9%
13Misha BednostinCSo6'11"28-010.01.41.90.80.657.7%—0.055.6%11.1%
2KaiMani MurdockGSo6'6"25-010.63.01.60.40.349.3%33.3%2.533.3%19.1%
34Luke BevilacquaFFr6'11"25-19.12.81.60.51.158.5%—0.055.0%22.1%
24Folabomi FayemiGFr6'4"16-06.11.30.80.00.331.5%16.7%0.444.4%21.2%
23Joshua WycheGSo6'7"11-06.90.61.60.30.237.5%0.0%0.225.0%9.7%
20Ashton WallaceGFr6'3"11-04.10.60.90.40.425.0%0.0%0.3100.0%21.0%
14Malik RasulFFr6'7"7-06.01.31.40.30.642.9%0.0%0.150.0%18.4%
11Luke AzzinaroFFr6'5"6-02.80.70.50.00.233.3%0.0%0.5—23.1%
3Beckett CurrieGFr5'11"0-00.00.00.00.00.0——0.0——
22Chris RubayoFSr6'10"0-00.00.00.00.00.0——0.0——
15Justin Vander BaanCSr7'0"0-00.00.00.00.00.0——0.0——
99Luka SavicevicGSr6'3"0-00.00.00.00.00.0——0.0——
9TJ BergerGSr6'4"0-00.00.00.00.00.0——0.0——
Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Tale of the tape

national rank toned left for away, right for home
LafayetteFDU
Efficiency
103.4
103.2
112.5
113.4
68.0
66.2
—
—
Shooting
49.3%
47.1%
50.0%
48.6%
32.2%
30.3%
68.9%
70.1%
32.4%
32.8%
Ball control & glass
15.3%
18.1%
15.1%
16.1%
25.8%
32.0%
28.6%
27.3%
7.9%
9.8%
10.5%
9.4%
Style
39.8%
45.2%
46.1%
40.1%
9.7%
5.7%
55.4%
51.0%
24.7%
32.0%
Roster
1.53
3.23
6'4.4"
6'5.4"
83.1%
—

Offseason

roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model input
Lafayette
Returning minutes: 83.1%Returning production: 82.8%
Lost
  • Mark Butler 33.9 mpg, 10.7 ppg · transferred to Rider
Added
  • Justin Vander Baan no D1 minutes last season
  • Beckett Currie no D1 minutes last season
  • TJ Berger no D1 minutes last season
  • Chris Rubayo no D1 minutes last season
  • Luka Savicevic no D1 minutes last season

No incoming D1 transfers are listed on ESPN's roster yet — until they are, returning shares read high.

Returns 83% of last season's minutes; lost 1 of its top 5 (1 transferred). Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026).

FDU
Returning minutes: 100.0%Returning production: 100.0%
ESPN hasn't posted FDU's roster for this season yet — no movement to show.

Returns 100% of last season's minutes. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026). (ESPN hasn't posted this season's roster yet -- this may still be last season's list.)

Head-to-head

this season and last
No meetings the last two seasons.

The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — Pinnacle's spread and total (the median across books when Pinnacle has no line). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, built bottom-up from those same numbers: expected possessions times each side's opponent-adjusted points per possession, plus home court.

What these numbers mean: line shopping.