CBB Matchups

Every D1 game with tempo-free ratings, four factors and market lines, one place.

College basketball is being built for the 2026-27 season (tip-off Nov 3). What's here fills in as games are played.
Conference gameKoessler Athletic Center, Buffalo, NY
Rider
Efficiency #356
2025-26: 4-25 · 3-17 conf
@
Canisius
Efficiency #344
2025-26: 10-21 · 5-15 conf
Fri, Dec 4 · 7:00 PM ET
65.4
win 31%
Projected
71.0
win 69%
No line posted yet.
Model: CAN −5.6 · total 136.4 · ratings as of Sat, Oct 3
Preseason ratings start from 2025-26's final adjusted ratings, regressed toward the D1 average. The stats below are 2025-26's too; both update once 2026-27 games are played.

How the projection is built

each step, from an average D-I game to this one
Projected total
Average D-I game
148.2
PaceAdjusted tempo: Canisius 66.2, Rider 67.2 → 65.1 possessions
−7.0
Canisius offense vs Rider defense
−1.5
Rider offense vs Canisius defense
−3.4
Projected total
136.4
Axis starts at 130 pointsPoints added or removed at each step
Projected margin
Even game
0.0
Canisius offense vs Rider defense
−1.5
Rider offense vs Canisius defense
+3.4
Home court+2.9 points per 100 possessions to the home offense, −2.9 to the visitors
+3.7
Canisius by 5.6
5.6
Rider side ◂▸ Canisius side

Steps are rounded to one decimal, so they can differ from the total by 0.1: the total steps add to 136.3 against a projected 136.4. The margin is the same build seen from the home side; positive numbers help Canisius.

Pace & total

possessions per 40 minutes
Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes

Projected possessions: 65.1, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw 2025-26 season pace, Rider is the faster team (65.7, #309 of 365) and Canisius the slower (64.3, #348). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (study weights 0.80 vs 0.66).

Projected possessions
65.1
per team, 40 min
Projected total
136.4
model
Projected team totals
65.4 / 71.0
Rider / Canisius
Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent
67.2#273
Rider
66.2#336
Canisius

How this game plays

what the study found each side's numbers actually do when these two teams meet
AdvantageRider
Where Rider struggles: shooting
Rider shoots an effective 42.8% (#365); Canisius allows 52.2% (#225). Expect about 46.8%, 4.5 points below an average D1 matchup — worth roughly -6.3 points per 100 possessions.
Pace
Half-court grind
Canisius averages 64.3 possessions per 40, Rider 65.7. Slower teams pull the pace toward themselves more than fast teams push it (0.80 vs 0.66 in five seasons of games), so expect about 63 — more possessions mean more points in the total and more chances for the better team to separate.
ClashRider
Style clash: 3-point volume
Rider rarely shoots threes (27.5% of its shots); Canisius lets opponents take 44.0% of their shots from three (D1 average 39.5%). Expect about 32.8% — the offense's habit usually carries a bit more weight (0.80 vs 0.64).
Watch for noise
3-point caution
A notable season 3-point number here (Rider, Rider's defense) is close to a coin flip going forward — the study's model of next-game 3P% barely beats guessing the D1 average. Shot volume is what actually carries: expect Rider at about 32.8% of its shots from three, Canisius about 39.8%.
Rider has the ball
OffenseCanisius allowsvs D1 avg
42.8% #365
52.2% #225
-6.3 pt/100
16.9% #196
16.0% #222
+0.5 pt/100
32.6% #101
29.8% #151
+0.8 pt/100
30.1% #307
35.2% #184
-0.3 pt/100
70.1% #270
—
-0.2 pt/100
Rider net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: -5.5 pts/100
Canisius has the ball
OffenseRider allowsvs D1 avg
46.3% #348
55.2% #335
-1.3 pt/100
19.6% #341
15.3% #268
-0.8 pt/100
29.3% #226
32.8% #294
+0.2 pt/100
31.4% #271
32.5% #116
-0.4 pt/100
71.9% #212
—
-0.0 pt/100
Canisius net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: -2.3 pts/100

Shot diet

Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot · 2025-26 numbers
Rideroffense vsCanisiusdefense
Share of shots by zone
Rider shoots
Canisius allows
D-I average
FG% by zone
ZoneD-I avg
Rim49.2%#36460.1%#22958.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)41.5%#13039.0%#15839.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)36.9%#22740.7%#26638.0%
Three27.7%#36533.0%#12433.7%
Canisiusoffense vsRiderdefense
Share of shots by zone
Canisius shoots
Rider allows
D-I average
FG% by zone
ZoneD-I avg
Rim47.2%#36557.0%#11158.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)50.5%#1040.6%#20339.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)34.6%#29844.7%#34638.0%
Three33.3%#21337.9%#35633.7%
RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three

Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).

Shot volume

Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line · 2025-26 numbers
Rider
−1.6extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#258 of 365
Off reb %
32.6%
#101
Def reb %
67.2%
#294
Turnover %
16.9%
#196
Forced TO %
15.3%
#268
FT rate
30.1%
#307
FT allowed
32.5%
#116
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding+0.7
Defensive rebounding−0.7
Ball security−0.1
Forcing turnovers−1.0
Foul shots drawn−1.3
Foul shots allowed+0.7
Canisius
−3.4extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#313 of 365
Off reb %
29.3%
#226
Def reb %
70.2%
#151
Turnover %
19.6%
#341
Forced TO %
16.0%
#222
FT rate
31.4%
#271
FT allowed
35.2%
#184
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding−0.4
Defensive rebounding+0.3
Ball security−1.9
Forcing turnovers−0.5
Foul shots drawn−0.9
Foul shots allowed0.0

Rider has more extra scoring chances per game: −1.6 (#258 of 365) to Canisius’s −3.4 (#313).

Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).

Rotation

Rider2025-26 numbers
#PlayerPosClHtGP-GSMPGPPGRPGAPGTOVeFG%3P%3PA/gFT%UsageStatus
10Mark Butlerat LafayetteGSr5'10"32-3233.910.72.24.21.143.7%25.0%0.676.0%20.9%
22Khalil Farmerat UMass LowellGSr6'4"33-014.23.81.50.50.543.2%32.1%1.761.7%18.3%
55Bryce Bakerat CharlestonGSr6'5"8-013.31.61.50.40.426.1%10.5%2.450.0%14.9%
23Horace Simmons Jr.at DrexelFJr6'6"13-06.81.70.90.40.432.8%18.8%1.275.0%22.8%
5Ty Bevinsat G WashingtonGJr6'6"10-07.61.91.30.20.342.1%26.7%1.575.0%17.0%
13Rich Briscoat AkronFSo6'8"8-03.11.30.90.00.450.0%—0.0—27.2%
14Kam Wylieat 2598FSo6'8"0-00.00.00.00.00.0——0.0——
24Bryce PresleyGFr6'5"0-00.00.00.00.00.0——0.0——
11JJ WashingtonGFr6'2"0-00.00.00.00.00.0——0.0——
9Mikes ConnellyGFr6'3"0-00.00.00.00.00.0——0.0——
3Nasir WashingtonGJr6'3"0-00.00.00.00.00.0——0.0——
2Richie RosaGFr6'0"0-00.00.00.00.00.0——0.0——
0Segun Ezekiel ObeFSo6'10"0-00.00.00.00.00.0——0.0——
8Stephen Avegah SemeyCJr6'8"0-00.00.00.00.00.0——0.0——
Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.
Transfers in: Bryce Baker (from Charleston), Ty Bevins (from G Washington), Rich Brisco (from Akron), Mark Butler (from Lafayette), Khalil Farmer (from UMass Lowell), Horace Simmons Jr. (from Drexel), Kam Wylie (from 2598)

Tale of the tape

national rank toned left for away, right for home
RiderCanisius
Efficiency
100.0
99.6
115.1
111.8
67.2
66.2
—
—
Shooting
42.8%
46.3%
43.3%
44.0%
27.7%
33.3%
70.1%
71.9%
30.1%
31.4%
Ball control & glass
16.9%
19.6%
15.3%
16.0%
32.6%
29.3%
32.8%
29.8%
9.9%
10.5%
8.3%
9.7%
Style
27.5%
39.5%
43.2%
39.3%
12.6%
11.6%
44.3%
55.4%
33.0%
27.8%
Roster
3.88
3.69
6'0.8"
6'4.2"
0.0%
0.2%

Offseason

roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model input
Rider
Returning minutes: 0.0%Returning production: 0.0%
Lost
  • Flash Burton 32.1 mpg, 15.1 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
  • Zion Cruz 30.4 mpg, 12.8 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
  • Caleb Smith 29.8 mpg, 7.2 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
  • Shemani Fuller 21.4 mpg, 6.7 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
  • Davis Bynum 18.3 mpg, 5.8 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
  • Cole McCabe 12.2 mpg, 2.3 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
Added
  • Mark Butler from Lafayette · 33.9 mpg, 10.7 ppg last season
  • Khalil Farmer from UMass Lowell · 14.2 mpg, 3.8 ppg last season
  • Bryce Baker from Charleston · 3.3 mpg, 0.4 ppg last season
  • Horace Simmons Jr. from Drexel · 2.7 mpg, 0.7 ppg last season
  • Ty Bevins from G Washington · 2.2 mpg, 0.5 ppg last season
  • Rich Brisco from Akron · 0.7 mpg, 0.3 ppg last season

Returns 0% of last season's minutes; lost 5 of its top 5. Teams returning under 40% of last season's minutes have historically fallen about 0.8 points of AdjEM (n=716 team-seasons, 2022-2026).

Canisius
Returning minutes: 0.2%Returning production: -0.0%
Lost
  • Kahlil Singleton 33.7 mpg, 13.4 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
  • Bryan Ndjonga 32.7 mpg, 13.9 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
  • Mike Evbagharu 32.2 mpg, 8.9 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
  • Myles Wilmoth 23.2 mpg, 5.2 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
  • Javante Edwards 20.0 mpg, 5.7 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
  • Chris Kumu 11.2 mpg, 3.2 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
Added
  • Preist Ryan from Cleveland St · 20.9 mpg, 6.8 ppg last season
  • Vinny Sigona from East Texas A&M · 17.5 mpg, 7.1 ppg last season
  • Clinton Efinda from UNC Greensboro · 14.5 mpg, 4.3 ppg last season
  • Michael Wilson Jr. from Bellarmine · 12.7 mpg, 5.3 ppg last season
  • Demarris Winters from UT Rio Grande · 4.5 mpg, 1.5 ppg last season
  • Nate Deer from Oakland · 1.4 mpg, 0.3 ppg last season

Returns 0% of last season's minutes; lost 5 of its top 5. Teams returning under 40% of last season's minutes have historically fallen about 0.8 points of AdjEM (n=716 team-seasons, 2022-2026).

Head-to-head

this season and last
DateSeasonResult
Fri, Feb 202025-26Canisius 72 – 66 Rider

The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — Pinnacle's spread and total (the median across books when Pinnacle has no line). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, built bottom-up from those same numbers: expected possessions times each side's opponent-adjusted points per possession, plus home court.

What these numbers mean: line shopping.