CBB Matchups
Every D1 game with tempo-free ratings, four factors and market lines, one place.
College basketball is being built for the 2026-27 season (tip-off Nov 3). What's here fills in as games are played.
Conference gameLeo D. Mahoney Arena, Fairfield, CT
Manhattan
Efficiency #328
2025-26: 12-20 · 8-13 conf
@
Fairfield
Efficiency #230
2025-26: 21-13 · 13-10 conf
Fri, Dec 4 · 7:00 PM ET
71.7
win 23%
Projected
80.5
win 77%
No line posted yet.
Model: FAIR −8.7 · total 152.2 · ratings as of Sat, Oct 3
Preseason ratings start from 2025-26's final adjusted ratings, regressed toward the D1 average. The stats below are 2025-26's too; both update once 2026-27 games are played.
How the projection is built
each step, from an average D-I game to this oneProjected total
Average D-I game
148.2
PaceAdjusted tempo: Fairfield 68.1, Manhattan 68.7 → 68.5 possessions
+0.3
Fairfield offense vs Manhattan defense
+4.2
Manhattan offense vs Fairfield defense
−0.6
Projected total
152.2
Axis starts at 146 pointsPoints added or removed at each step
Projected margin
Even game
0.0
Fairfield offense vs Manhattan defense
+4.2
Manhattan offense vs Fairfield defense
+0.6
Home court+2.9 points per 100 possessions to the home offense, −2.9 to the visitors
+3.9
Fairfield by 8.7
8.7
Manhattan side ◂▸ Fairfield side
Steps are rounded to one decimal, so they can differ from the total by 0.1: the total steps add to 152.1 against a projected 152.2. The margin is the same build seen from the home side; positive numbers help Fairfield.
Pace & total
possessions per 40 minutesTempo, possessions per 40 minutes
Projected possessions: 68.5, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw 2025-26 season pace, Manhattan is the faster team (68.1, #195 of 365) and Fairfield the slower (67.1, #239). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (study weights 0.80 vs 0.66).
Projected possessions
68.5
per team, 40 min
Projected total
152.2
model
Projected team totals
71.7 / 80.5
Manhattan / Fairfield
Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent
68.7#143
Manhattan
68.1#203
Fairfield
How this game plays
what the study found each side's numbers actually do when these two teams meetAdvantageFairfield
Where Fairfield scores: the offensive glass
Fairfield rebounds 35.8% of its own misses (#29); Manhattan lets opponents grab 37.0% of their own misses (#358). Expect about 37.3%, 6.9 points above an average D1 matchup — worth roughly +4.2 points per 100 possessions.
AdvantageManhattan
Where Manhattan struggles: shooting
Manhattan shoots an effective 47.9% (#315); Fairfield allows 51.0% (#159). Expect about 49.2%, 2.1 points below an average D1 matchup — worth roughly -3.0 points per 100 possessions.
Watch for noise
3-point caution
A notable season 3-point number here (Manhattan's defense) is close to a coin flip going forward — the study's model of next-game 3P% barely beats guessing the D1 average. Shot volume is what actually carries: expect Manhattan at about 35.3% of its shots from three, Fairfield about 35.3%.
ClashFairfield
Style clash: ball movement
Fairfield creates off the dribble (assists on 45.2% of its baskets); Manhattan allows assists on 61.5% of opponents' baskets (D1 average 52.4%). Expect about 53.7% — the offense's habit usually carries a bit more weight (0.65 vs 0.65).
Manhattan has the ball
OffenseFairfield allowsvs D1 avg
47.9% #315
51.0% #159
-3.0 pt/100
15.6% #111
16.8% #165
+0.8 pt/100
28.6% #247
29.1% #116
-1.2 pt/100
34.0% #208
30.4% #69
-0.4 pt/100
79.6% #3
—
+0.6 pt/100
Manhattan net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: -3.2 pts/100
Fairfield has the ball
OffenseManhattan allowsvs D1 avg
48.8% #294
53.9% #297
-0.1 pt/100
15.3% #92
16.7% #175
+1.1 pt/100
35.8% #29
37.0% #358
+4.2 pt/100
27.7% #346
25.7% #11
-1.1 pt/100
70.5% #255
—
-0.2 pt/100
Fairfield net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: +3.9 pts/100
Shot diet
Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot · 2025-26 numbersManhattanoffense vsFairfielddefense
Share of shots by zone
Manhattan shoots
38.9
6.2
17.8
37.1
Fairfield allows
46.9
3.4
14.3
35.4
D-I average
38.5
6.4
15.8
39.3
FG% by zone
| Zone | D-I avg | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Rim | 50.2%#360 | 55.7%#78 | 58.6% |
| Short 2 (≤9 ft) | 43.8%#85 | 51.7%#358 | 39.5% |
| Mid 2 (10 ft+) | 42.9%#38 | 34.0%#49 | 38.0% |
| Three | 32.0%#280 | 34.3%#200 | 33.7% |
Fairfieldoffense vsManhattandefense
Share of shots by zone
Fairfield shoots
41.6
3.5
19.1
35.8
Manhattan allows
40.7
5.9
15.2
38.2
D-I average
38.5
6.4
15.8
39.3
FG% by zone
| Zone | D-I avg | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Rim | 52.7%#343 | 58.5%#166 | 58.6% |
| Short 2 (≤9 ft) | 47.7%#29 | 42.5%#237 | 39.5% |
| Mid 2 (10 ft+) | 38.6%#165 | 42.7%#326 | 38.0% |
| Three | 33.2%#216 | 36.6%#332 | 33.7% |
RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three
Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).
Shot volume
Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line · 2025-26 numbersManhattan
+0.3extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#168 of 365
Off reb %
28.6%
#247
Def reb %
63.0%
#358
Turnover %
15.6%
#111
Forced TO %
16.7%
#175
FT rate
34.0%
#208
FT allowed
25.7%
#11
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding−0.6
Defensive rebounding−2.0
Ball security+0.8
Forcing turnovers0.0
Foul shots drawn−0.2
Foul shots allowed+2.4
Fairfield
+2.6extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#71 of 365
Off reb %
35.8%
#29
Def reb %
70.9%
#116
Turnover %
15.3%
#92
Forced TO %
16.8%
#165
FT rate
27.7%
#346
FT allowed
30.4%
#69
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding+1.7
Defensive rebounding+0.5
Ball security+1.0
Forcing turnovers+0.1
Foul shots drawn−1.9
Foul shots allowed+1.2
Fairfield has more extra scoring chances per game: +2.6 (#71 of 365) to Manhattan’s +0.3 (#168).
Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).
Rotation
Manhattan2025-26 numbers
| # | Player | Pos | Cl | Ht | GP-GS | MPG | PPG | RPG | APG | TOV | eFG% | 3P% | 3PA/g | FT% | Usage | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Ben Tweedyat Colgate | G | Jr | 6'4" | 33-33 | 29.4 | 9.4 | 3.1 | 2.6 | 1.3 | 55.9% | 38.5% | 3.3 | 70.3% | 19.0% | |
| 12 | Josiah Sabinoat Niagara | G | Sr | 6'4" | 28-10 | 21.0 | 7.1 | 4.6 | 0.9 | 1.3 | 49.3% | 24.5% | 1.8 | 90.9% | 22.6% | |
| 10 | Quron Elliott | G | So | 6'2" | 29-0 | 12.0 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 47.3% | 31.8% | 0.8 | 70.8% | 20.0% | |
| 16 | Ognjen Stankovicat Akron | F | So | 6'8" | 18-0 | 6.6 | 2.3 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 55.4% | 20.0% | 0.3 | 58.8% | 22.1% | |
| 23 | Jackson Delaney | G | Sr | 6'5" | 18-0 | 5.0 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 42.9% | 36.4% | 0.6 | 0.0% | 11.9% | |
| 1 | Kevin Kearneyat Saint Joseph's | F | So | 6'7" | 14-0 | 4.1 | 0.6 | 1.0 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 18.8% | 0.0% | 0.6 | 50.0% | 22.5% | |
| 11 | Asier Miguel | G | So | 6'4" | 9-0 | 4.9 | 2.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 59.4% | 30.0% | 1.1 | 50.0% | 26.6% | |
| 87 | Liam McChesneyat Creighton | F | Sr | 6'10" | 3-0 | 2.7 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.0 | 0.7 | 25.0% | 0.0% | 0.7 | — | 42.1% | |
| 20 | Jaeden Robley | G | Fr | 6'5" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 9 | Jameson Borodawka | G | Fr | 5'10" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 22 | Nick Lukmann | G | Fr | 6'4" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 13 | Anthony Pacciarelli | G | So | 6'5" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 3 | DaSean Lewis | G | Jr | 5'10" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 7 | Dusan Eric | F | Fr | 6'8" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 2 | Isaac Johnson | F | Jr | 6'7" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 0 | Jahzar Greene | G | Fr | 5'11" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 14 | Novak Manojlovic | F | Fr | 6'8" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — |
Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.
Transfers in: Kevin Kearney (from Saint Joseph's), Liam McChesney (from Creighton), Josiah Sabino (from Niagara), Ognjen Stankovic (from Akron), Ben Tweedy (from Colgate)
Fairfield2025-26 numbers
| # | Player | Pos | Cl | Ht | GP-GS | MPG | PPG | RPG | APG | TOV | eFG% | 3P% | 3PA/g | FT% | Usage | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 44 | Declan Wucherpfennig | G | So | 6'7" | 34-34 | 31.6 | 12.1 | 8.5 | 1.6 | 1.2 | 55.7% | 31.7% | 1.9 | 65.7% | 22.1% | |
| 12 | Qadir Martinat Mercyhurst | F | Jr | 6'5" | 34-33 | 31.4 | 11.6 | 7.0 | 1.0 | 0.9 | 58.9% | 22.2% | 0.5 | 58.1% | 21.2% | |
| 8 | Tony Williams | G | So | 6'1" | 33-23 | 20.0 | 6.5 | 1.5 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 47.4% | 32.0% | 3.7 | 68.0% | 22.6% | |
| 1 | Eric Mejia | G | Jr | 6'3" | 34-7 | 18.9 | 4.9 | 2.2 | 1.5 | 1.0 | 38.7% | 30.6% | 1.1 | 73.3% | 20.0% | |
| 4 | Halon Rawlins | G | So | 6'6" | 33-23 | 16.9 | 3.9 | 2.6 | 1.1 | 0.8 | 39.9% | 25.0% | 2.1 | 60.9% | 19.4% | |
| 15 | Isaac Munkadi | F | Jr | 6'10" | 34-3 | 9.4 | 2.7 | 2.7 | 0.1 | 0.4 | 57.3% | 25.0% | 0.1 | 51.2% | 17.1% | |
| 88 | Marko Radunovicat Boston College | F | So | 6'6" | 18-0 | 9.2 | 2.2 | 1.8 | 0.2 | 0.8 | 30.8% | 23.1% | 1.4 | 70.0% | 25.6% | |
| 5 | Nasir Rodriguez | G | So | 6'4" | 22-0 | 7.2 | 2.7 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.8 | 36.4% | 31.6% | 1.7 | 66.7% | 32.8% | |
| 24 | Joe Ganton | G | Sr | 6'4" | 3-0 | 2.3 | 1.3 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0.3 | 40.0% | — | 0.0 | — | 43.2% | |
| 9 | Tanner Ostop | G | Sr | 6'0" | 3-0 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 25.0% | 0.0% | 1.0 | — | 33.9% | |
| 13 | Noah Best | G | Sr | 6'5" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 33 | Peyton Smith | F | Sr | 6'10" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 25 | Brayden Jones | F | Fr | 6'8" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 0 | Cole Edelen | G | Fr | 6'2" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 11 | Jaden Brown | G | Fr | 6'4" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 3 | Jah Hatchett | G | Fr | 6'0" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 23 | Oesoemana Sacko | F | Fr | 6'8" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — |
Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.
Transfers in: Qadir Martin (from Mercyhurst), Marko Radunovic (from Boston College)
Manhattan2025-26 numbers
| # | Player | Pos | Cl | Ht | GP-GS | MPG | PPG | RPG | APG | TOV | eFG% | 3P% | 3PA/g | FT% | Usage | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Ben Tweedyat Colgate | G | Jr | 6'4" | 33-33 | 29.4 | 9.4 | 3.1 | 2.6 | 1.3 | 55.9% | 38.5% | 3.3 | 70.3% | 19.0% | |
| 12 | Josiah Sabinoat Niagara | G | Sr | 6'4" | 28-10 | 21.0 | 7.1 | 4.6 | 0.9 | 1.3 | 49.3% | 24.5% | 1.8 | 90.9% | 22.6% | |
| 10 | Quron Elliott | G | So | 6'2" | 29-0 | 12.0 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 47.3% | 31.8% | 0.8 | 70.8% | 20.0% | |
| 16 | Ognjen Stankovicat Akron | F | So | 6'8" | 18-0 | 6.6 | 2.3 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 55.4% | 20.0% | 0.3 | 58.8% | 22.1% | |
| 23 | Jackson Delaney | G | Sr | 6'5" | 18-0 | 5.0 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 42.9% | 36.4% | 0.6 | 0.0% | 11.9% | |
| 1 | Kevin Kearneyat Saint Joseph's | F | So | 6'7" | 14-0 | 4.1 | 0.6 | 1.0 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 18.8% | 0.0% | 0.6 | 50.0% | 22.5% | |
| 11 | Asier Miguel | G | So | 6'4" | 9-0 | 4.9 | 2.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 59.4% | 30.0% | 1.1 | 50.0% | 26.6% | |
| 87 | Liam McChesneyat Creighton | F | Sr | 6'10" | 3-0 | 2.7 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.0 | 0.7 | 25.0% | 0.0% | 0.7 | — | 42.1% | |
| 20 | Jaeden Robley | G | Fr | 6'5" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 9 | Jameson Borodawka | G | Fr | 5'10" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 22 | Nick Lukmann | G | Fr | 6'4" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 13 | Anthony Pacciarelli | G | So | 6'5" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 3 | DaSean Lewis | G | Jr | 5'10" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 7 | Dusan Eric | F | Fr | 6'8" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 2 | Isaac Johnson | F | Jr | 6'7" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 0 | Jahzar Greene | G | Fr | 5'11" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 14 | Novak Manojlovic | F | Fr | 6'8" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — |
Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.
Transfers in: Kevin Kearney (from Saint Joseph's), Liam McChesney (from Creighton), Josiah Sabino (from Niagara), Ognjen Stankovic (from Akron), Ben Tweedy (from Colgate)
Trends
Last 10 games of 2025-26Manhattan
Against the spread
Season
11-20
Home
6-7
Road
4-11
Last 10
3-7
avg cover −0.1
Missed the spread 4 straightCovered 1 of 7 as an underdog
Over / under
Season
13-18
Home
6-7
Road
7-8
Last 10
4-6
avg vs total +0.1
Under 3 straightOver in 2 of 7 as an underdog
Last 10 games, newest first
| Date | Opponent | Site | Result | Total | PPP for | PPP vs | Pace | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 5 | Fairfield | N | L 60–71 | +4.5 | L−6.5 | 148.0 | U131 | 88.3 | 104.5 | 67.9 |
| Mar 1 | Iona | H | L 65–69 | +2.0 | L−2.0 | 151.5 | U134 | 86.7 | 92.0 | 75.0 |
| Feb 27 | Saint Peter's | A | L 65–75 | +8.0 | L−2.0 | 145.0 | U140 | 103.6 | 119.5 | 62.8 |
| Feb 20 | Marist | H | L 70–84 | +5.0 | L−9.0 | 142.0 | O154 | 109.3 | 131.2 | 64.0 |
| Feb 15 | Canisius | A | W 69–65 | −1.5 | W+2.5 | 141.0 | U134 | 106.5 | 100.4 | 64.8 |
| Feb 13 | Niagara | A | W 76–69 | −2.0 | W+5.0 | 135.0 | O145 | 119.9 | 108.9 | 63.4 |
| Feb 7 | Sacred Heart | H | W 80–68 | +1.5 | W+13.5 | 161.0 | U148 | 112.6 | 95.7 | 71.1 |
| Feb 5 | Saint Peter's | H | L 75–80 | +4.5 | L−0.5 | 145.5 | O155 | 120.1 | 128.1 | 62.5 |
| Feb 1 | Mount St Marys | A | L 65–72 | +6.5 | L−0.5 | 146.5 | U137 | 99.4 | 110.1 | 65.4 |
| Jan 30 | Rider | H | W 95–90 | −6.0 | L−1.0 | 146.0 | O185 | 141.1 | 133.6 | 67.3 |
Fairfield
Against the spread
Season
15-18
Home
5-10
Road
8-7
Last 10
7-3
avg cover +2.5
Missed the spread in the last gameCovered 3 of 4 as a favoriteCovered 4 of 6 as an underdog
Over / under
Season
13-20
Home
3-12
Road
10-5
Last 10
3-7
avg vs total −4.4
Under 5 straightOver in 1 of 4 as a favoriteOver in 2 of 6 as an underdog
Last 10 games, newest first
| Date | Opponent | Site | Result | Total | PPP for | PPP vs | Pace | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 8 | Siena | N | L 61–76 | +1.5 | L−13.5 | 138.0 | U137 | 95.5 | 119.0 | 63.9 |
| Mar 6 | Saint Peter's | N | W 74–55 | +2.5 | W+21.5 | 137.5 | U129 | 114.7 | 85.3 | 64.5 |
| Mar 5 | Manhattan | N | W 71–60 | −4.5 | W+6.5 | 148.0 | U131 | 104.5 | 88.3 | 67.9 |
| Mar 1 | Mount St Marys | H | L 47–69 | −3.5 | L−25.5 | 146.5 | U116 | 70.3 | 103.2 | 66.8 |
| Feb 27 | Siena | H | W 72–58 | +1.0 | W+15.0 | 142.5 | U130 | 102.9 | 82.9 | 69.9 |
| Feb 22 | Quinnipiac | A | W 85–79 | +6.5 | W+12.5 | 150.5 | O164 | 124.3 | 115.5 | 68.4 |
| Feb 20 | Sacred Heart | H | W 78–68 | −5.0 | W+5.0 | 158.0 | U146 | 113.2 | 98.7 | 68.9 |
| Feb 15 | Saint Peter's | A | L 74–83 | +4.0 | L−5.0 | 142.0 | O157 | 107.6 | 120.7 | 68.8 |
| Feb 7 | Marist | H | W 63–60 | +1.0 | W+4.0 | 138.0 | U123 | 103.0 | 98.1 | 61.2 |
| Feb 5 | Sacred Heart | A | W 92–87 | −1.0 | W+4.0 | 155.0 | O179 | 129.1 | 122.1 | 71.2 |
Records vs the closing line describe the past; ten games is a small sample.
Tale of the tape
national rank toned left for away, right for homeManhattanFairfield
Efficiency
105.7
107.4
115.7
110.4
68.7
68.1
—
—
Shooting
47.9%
48.8%
47.8%
48.2%
32.0%
33.2%
79.6%
70.5%
34.0%
27.7%
Ball control & glass
15.6%
15.3%
16.7%
16.8%
28.6%
35.8%
37.0%
29.1%
8.2%
8.7%
10.7%
10.5%
Style
37.1%
35.4%
41.4%
44.5%
11.1%
12.8%
49.6%
45.2%
28.1%
31.1%
Roster
3.05
2.44
6'4"
6'5.1"
7.4%
50.2%
Offseason
roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model inputManhattan
Returning minutes: 7.4%Returning production: 5.3%
Lost
- Jaden Winston 35.3 mpg, 15.3 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Devin Dinkins 33.6 mpg, 12.1 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Fraser Roxburgh 30.6 mpg, 11.0 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Terrance Jones 28.2 mpg, 12.7 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Anthony Isaac 23.8 mpg, 9.5 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Marko Ljubicic 20.0 mpg, 5.8 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
Added
- Ben Tweedy from Colgate · 29.4 mpg, 9.4 ppg last season
- Josiah Sabino from Niagara · 19.6 mpg, 6.6 ppg last season
- Ognjen Stankovic from Akron · 3.4 mpg, 1.2 ppg last season
- Kevin Kearney from Saint Joseph's · 1.6 mpg, 0.3 ppg last season
- Liam McChesney from Creighton · 0.2 mpg, 0.1 ppg last season
- Jameson Borodawka no D1 minutes last season
Returns 7% of last season's minutes; lost 5 of its top 5. Teams returning under 40% of last season's minutes have historically fallen about 0.8 points of AdjEM (n=716 team-seasons, 2022-2026).
Fairfield
Returning minutes: 50.2%Returning production: 45.6%
Lost
- Braden Sparks 33.3 mpg, 17.2 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Brandon Benjamin 29.5 mpg, 13.4 ppg · transferred to Boston College
- Deuce Turner 20.0 mpg, 8.4 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Ryan Zan 7.0 mpg, 0.9 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Cam Estevez 6.8 mpg, 2.1 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Michael Rogan 3.2 mpg, 0.5 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
Added
- Qadir Martin from Mercyhurst · 31.4 mpg, 11.6 ppg last season
- Marko Radunovic from Boston College · 5.4 mpg, 1.3 ppg last season
- Cole Edelen no D1 minutes last season
- Jaden Brown no D1 minutes last season
- Jah Hatchett no D1 minutes last season
- Noah Best no D1 minutes last season
Returns 50% of last season's minutes; lost 3 of its top 5 (1 transferred).
Head-to-head
this season and last| Date | Season | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Thu, Mar 5 | 2025-26 | Manhattan 60 – 71 Fairfield(N) |
| Wed, Jan 14 | 2025-26 | Manhattan 62 – 98 Fairfield |
| Fri, Dec 5 | 2025-26 | Fairfield 66 – 70 Manhattan |
The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — Pinnacle's spread and total (the median across books when Pinnacle has no line). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, built bottom-up from those same numbers: expected possessions times each side's opponent-adjusted points per possession, plus home court.
What these numbers mean: line shopping.