CBB Matchups

Every D1 game with tempo-free ratings, four factors and market lines, one place.

College basketball is being built for the 2026-27 season (tip-off Nov 3). What's here fills in as games are played.

Non-conferenceChace Athletic Center, Smithfield, RI

Brown

Efficiency #275

2025-26: 9-18 · 3-11 conf

Bryant

Efficiency #347

2025-26: 9-22 · 5-12 conf

Fri, Dec 4 · TBD

68.1

win 53%

Projected

67.3

win 47%

No line posted yet.

Model: BRWN −0.8 · total 135.4 · ratings as of Sat, Oct 3

Preseason ratings start from 2025-26's final adjusted ratings, regressed toward the D1 average. The stats below are 2025-26's too; both update once 2026-27 games are played.

How the projection is built

each step, from an average D-I game to this one

Projected total

Average D-I game

148.2

PaceAdjusted tempo: Bryant 66.3, Brown 67.9 → 65.8 possessions

−5.4

Bryant offense vs Brown defense

−6.0

Brown offense vs Bryant defense

−1.4

Projected total

135.4

Axis starts at 130 pointsPoints added or removed at each step

Projected margin

Even game

0.0

Bryant offense vs Brown defense

−6.0

Brown offense vs Bryant defense

+1.4

Home court+2.9 points per 100 possessions to the home offense, −2.9 to the visitors

+3.8

Brown by 0.8

0.8

Brown side ◂▸ Bryant side

Steps are rounded to one decimal, so they can differ from the total by 0.1. The margin is the same build seen from the home side; positive numbers help Bryant.

Pace & total

possessions per 40 minutes

Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes

Projected possessions: 65.8, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw 2025-26 season pace, Brown is the faster team (66.7, #260 of 365) and Bryant the slower (64.4, #347). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (study weights 0.80 vs 0.66).

Projected possessions

65.8

per team, 40 min

Projected total

135.4

model

Projected team totals

68.1 / 67.3

Brown / Bryant

Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent

67.9#220

Brown

66.3#330

Bryant

How this game plays

what the study found each side's numbers actually do when these two teams meet

Pace

Half-court grind

Bryant averages 64.4 possessions per 40, Brown 66.7. Slower teams pull the pace toward themselves more than fast teams push it (0.80 vs 0.66 in five seasons of games), so expect about 64 — more possessions mean more points in the total and more chances for the better team to separate.

AdvantageBryant

Where Bryant struggles: ball control

Bryant turns it over on 20.2% of possessions (#351); Brown forces turnovers on 18.7% of opponent possessions (#62). Expect about 20.0%, 3.2 points above an average D1 matchup — worth roughly -3.9 points per 100 possessions.

ClashBryant

Style match: 3-point volume

Bryant takes 47.9% of its shots from three; Brown lets opponents take 43.0% of their shots from three (D1 average 39.5%). Expect about 48.5% — both habits push the same way.

Watch for noise

3-point caution

A notable season 3-point number here (Bryant, Brown, Bryant's defense) is close to a coin flip going forward — the study's model of next-game 3P% barely beats guessing the D1 average. Shot volume is what actually carries: expect Brown at about 34.6% of its shots from three, Bryant about 48.5%.

ClashBrown

Style match: paint scoring

Brown scores 50.4% of its points in the paint; Bryant gives up 47.4% of opponents' points in the paint (D1 average 42.8%). Expect about 46.2% — both habits push the same way.

ClashBryant

Style match: paint scoring

Bryant gets only 39.2% of its points in the paint; Brown protects the paint (38.4% of opponents' points) (D1 average 42.8%). Expect about 40.4% — both habits push the same way.

Brown has the ball

OffenseBryant allowsvs D1 avg

48.6% #299

52.7% #257

-1.1 pt/100

19.5% #337

14.6% #316

-0.2 pt/100

29.0% #236

31.0% #203

-0.4 pt/100

28.1% #342

33.5% #141

-0.5 pt/100

68.4% #316

—

-0.4 pt/100

Brown net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: -2.6 pts/100

Bryant has the ball

OffenseBrown allowsvs D1 avg

46.9% #340

51.3% #176

-3.6 pt/100

20.2% #351

18.7% #62

-3.9 pt/100

27.7% #276

30.0% #164

-1.2 pt/100

29.4% #322

37.6% #253

-0.1 pt/100

76.0% #53

—

+0.3 pt/100

Bryant net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: -8.6 pts/100

Shot diet

Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot · 2025-26 numbers

Brownoffense vsBryantdefense

Share of shots by zone

Brown shoots

44.3

4.7

14.9

36.1

Bryant allows

45.4

5.1

13.5

36.1

D-I average

38.5

6.4

15.8

39.3

FG% by zone

Zone			D-I avg
Rim	55.9%#276	57.5%#128	58.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)	43.5%#90	44.0%#267	39.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)	34.7%#297	34.7%#65	38.0%
Three	30.3%#338	36.3%#320	33.7%

Bryantoffense vsBrowndefense

Share of shots by zone

Bryant shoots

38.1

3.2

11.2

47.6

Brown allows

37.3

2.8

16.3

43.5

D-I average

38.5

6.4

15.8

39.3

FG% by zone

Zone			D-I avg
Rim	55.6%#283	55.7%#77	58.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)	35.6%#277	40.5%#200	39.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)	27.8%#363	45.8%#355	38.0%
Three	30.0%#343	33.5%#157	33.7%

RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three

Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).

Shot volume

Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line · 2025-26 numbers

Brown

−3.1extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#308 of 365

Off reb %

29.0%

#236

Def reb %

70.0%

#164

Turnover %

19.5%

#337

Forced TO %

18.7%

#62

FT rate

28.1%

#342

FT allowed

37.6%

#253

Where the chances come from (per game)

Offensive rebounding−0.5

Defensive rebounding+0.2

Ball security−1.8

Forcing turnovers+1.4

Foul shots drawn−1.8

Foul shots allowed−0.6

Bryant

−5.8extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#354 of 365

Off reb %

27.7%

#276

Def reb %

69.0%

#203

Turnover %

20.2%

#351

Forced TO %

14.6%

#316

FT rate

29.4%

#322

FT allowed

33.5%

#141

Where the chances come from (per game)

Offensive rebounding−0.9

Defensive rebounding−0.1

Ball security−2.4

Forcing turnovers−1.4

Foul shots drawn−1.4

Foul shots allowed+0.4

Brown has more extra scoring chances per game: −3.1 (#308 of 365) to Bryant’s −5.8 (#354).

Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).

Rotation

Brown2025-26 numbers

ESPN hasn't posted Brown's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
2	Jeremiah Jenkins	G	So	6'0"	27-27	30.1	8.2	3.9	5.2	2.8	44.6%	36.4%	3.7	75.5%	22.2%
5	Adrian Uchidiuno	G	Jr	6'2"	27-8	25.3	9.1	2.7	1.1	1.4	42.1%	26.2%	5.4	81.3%	27.4%
40	Landon Lewis	F	Sr	6'7"	21-21	30.8	16.6	7.2	1.9	2.3	56.3%	42.9%	0.7	56.5%	32.3%
45	N'famara Dabo	F	Jr	6'8"	27-25	23.3	7.2	5.7	1.0	0.8	63.6%	0.0%	0.0	56.3%	16.7%
12	Malcolm Wrisby-Jefferson	G	Jr	6'4"	27-11	22.2	4.2	3.6	2.8	1.5	41.5%	22.6%	1.1	73.9%	16.6%
1	Isaiah Langham	G	Fr	6'5"	27-13	21.1	8.4	2.4	0.9	1.4	45.9%	18.8%	2.4	70.2%	28.2%
23	David Rochester	F	So	6'8"	22-7	22.0	6.2	3.4	1.6	1.1	44.2%	28.6%	1.3	72.5%	19.8%
14	Luke Paragon	G	Jr	6'4"	26-18	16.4	7.1	1.5	0.6	0.5	59.2%	39.0%	3.8	93.5%	21.8%
33	Charlie O'Sullivan	F	Fr	6'10"	20-0	11.5	4.6	2.1	0.9	0.5	60.4%	37.3%	2.5	71.4%	21.7%
30	Brady Loughlin	G	Fr	6'5"	12-1	18.2	6.5	2.0	0.7	0.9	59.2%	38.8%	4.1	70.0%	21.0%
6	Wyatt DeGraaf	F	So	6'10"	14-3	9.2	2.4	1.6	0.3	0.6	68.2%	—	0.0	42.9%	15.7%
32	Drew Kania	F	Sr	6'8"	8-1	5.4	1.6	1.0	0.1	0.3	30.8%	—	0.0	71.4%	24.9%
4	Jonah Drezner	G	Fr	6'3"	5-0	5.6	2.2	0.4	0.4	0.2	61.1%	42.9%	1.4	—	19.4%
11	Jerrell Barron Jr.	G	So	6'4"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Bryant2025-26 numbers

ESPN hasn't posted Bryant's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
99	Timofei Rudovskii	F	Fr	6'9"	31-31	31.5	12.9	4.7	1.8	2.5	52.0%	36.2%	6.0	83.7%	27.3%
0	Ashley Sims II	F	Fr	6'8"	31-29	31.4	7.2	5.0	2.0	1.2	50.5%	17.9%	1.3	48.9%	16.4%
1	Ty Tabales	G	Fr	6'2"	30-28	27.9	9.1	2.2	3.5	2.5	39.4%	26.4%	5.9	80.4%	29.1%
14	Keegan Harvey	F	Sr	6'11"	31-31	26.5	11.2	4.9	1.1	2.0	60.4%	40.0%	2.3	83.2%	24.7%
3	Aaron Davis III	F	Jr	6'7"	30-16	23.3	9.5	3.5	0.7	1.1	52.6%	36.3%	5.3	67.2%	26.2%
13	Jakai Robinson	G	Sr	6'5"	30-4	15.9	3.1	2.0	0.9	0.4	40.0%	20.0%	0.3	82.0%	13.2%
4	Quincy Allen	G	Sr	6'8"	16-9	24.6	9.8	4.3	1.0	1.3	46.2%	26.9%	4.2	62.9%	27.1%
2	Khalil Williams	F	So	6'5"	22-5	11.4	2.8	1.6	1.1	1.2	32.1%	21.3%	2.1	90.9%	27.4%
9	Gio Sanford	F	Fr	6'4"	18-0	13.2	1.8	1.3	0.7	0.4	40.3%	9.1%	0.6	57.1%	11.8%
11	Ethane Bourgade	F	Fr	6'9"	20-0	10.1	1.4	1.8	0.3	0.3	30.6%	14.3%	0.3	52.9%	13.4%
8	Lennart Weber	F	Sr	6'8"	20-0	9.4	2.4	1.5	0.4	0.3	47.7%	21.1%	0.9	66.7%	17.2%
10	Daniel Akoue	F	Fr	6'10"	12-2	11.7	3.0	2.1	0.3	1.1	47.8%	18.2%	0.9	77.8%	19.2%
7	Joe Green	G	Fr	6'3"	9-0	4.9	1.1	0.3	0.3	0.7	44.4%	—	0.0	100.0%	21.2%
6	Langston Bailey	G	So	5'9"	7-0	2.0	1.7	0.1	0.0	0.6	62.5%	40.0%	0.7	100.0%	54.1%
21	Frankie Vassalluzzo	G	So	6'0"	7-0	1.3	0.0	0.3	0.0	0.0	0.0%	0.0%	0.3	—	26.6%
22	Jason Sepe	F	So	6'3"	6-0	1.0	0.3	0.0	0.0	0.0	100.0%	—	0.0	—	9.9%
5	Jaheim Nyam	G	Jr	6'3"	5-0	1.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.2	0.0%	0.0%	0.2	—	47.8%
30	Michael DeOrsey	G	Fr	5'11"	5-0	1.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0%	—	0.0	—	23.9%
25	Reed Woerner	G	Fr	6'3"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Brown2025-26 numbers

ESPN hasn't posted Brown's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
2	Jeremiah Jenkins	G	So	6'0"	27-27	30.1	8.2	3.9	5.2	2.8	44.6%	36.4%	3.7	75.5%	22.2%
5	Adrian Uchidiuno	G	Jr	6'2"	27-8	25.3	9.1	2.7	1.1	1.4	42.1%	26.2%	5.4	81.3%	27.4%
40	Landon Lewis	F	Sr	6'7"	21-21	30.8	16.6	7.2	1.9	2.3	56.3%	42.9%	0.7	56.5%	32.3%
45	N'famara Dabo	F	Jr	6'8"	27-25	23.3	7.2	5.7	1.0	0.8	63.6%	0.0%	0.0	56.3%	16.7%
12	Malcolm Wrisby-Jefferson	G	Jr	6'4"	27-11	22.2	4.2	3.6	2.8	1.5	41.5%	22.6%	1.1	73.9%	16.6%
1	Isaiah Langham	G	Fr	6'5"	27-13	21.1	8.4	2.4	0.9	1.4	45.9%	18.8%	2.4	70.2%	28.2%
23	David Rochester	F	So	6'8"	22-7	22.0	6.2	3.4	1.6	1.1	44.2%	28.6%	1.3	72.5%	19.8%
14	Luke Paragon	G	Jr	6'4"	26-18	16.4	7.1	1.5	0.6	0.5	59.2%	39.0%	3.8	93.5%	21.8%
33	Charlie O'Sullivan	F	Fr	6'10"	20-0	11.5	4.6	2.1	0.9	0.5	60.4%	37.3%	2.5	71.4%	21.7%
30	Brady Loughlin	G	Fr	6'5"	12-1	18.2	6.5	2.0	0.7	0.9	59.2%	38.8%	4.1	70.0%	21.0%
6	Wyatt DeGraaf	F	So	6'10"	14-3	9.2	2.4	1.6	0.3	0.6	68.2%	—	0.0	42.9%	15.7%
32	Drew Kania	F	Sr	6'8"	8-1	5.4	1.6	1.0	0.1	0.3	30.8%	—	0.0	71.4%	24.9%
4	Jonah Drezner	G	Fr	6'3"	5-0	5.6	2.2	0.4	0.4	0.2	61.1%	42.9%	1.4	—	19.4%
11	Jerrell Barron Jr.	G	So	6'4"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Trends

Last 10 games of 2025-26

Brown

Against the spread

Season

13-12

Home

5-7

Road

8-5

Last 10

5-5

avg cover −3.4

Missed the spread in the last gameCovered 4 of 7 as an underdog

Over / under

Season

12-13

Home

4-8

Road

8-5

Last 10

6-4

avg vs total +1.3

Under in the last gameOver in 4 of 7 as an underdog

Last 10 games, newest first

Date	Opponent	Site	Result			Total		PPP for	PPP vs	Pace
Mar 6	PennAdjEM #162	H	L 61–82	−1.0	L−22.0	147.0	U143	84.9	114.2	71.8
Feb 28	CornellAdjEM #135	A	L 80–86	+9.5	W+3.5	157.5	O166	110.7	119.1	72.2
Feb 27	ColumbiaAdjEM #166	A	L 62–80	+5.5	L−12.5	140.0	O142	91.1	117.6	68.1
Feb 20	PrincetonAdjEM #251	H	W 80–71	−3.0	W+6.0	130.0	O151	124.7	110.7	64.1
Feb 14	DartmouthAdjEM #254	A	W 79–76	+3.0	W+6.0	139.5	O155	110.6	106.4	71.5
Feb 13	HarvardAdjEM #133	A	L 53–56	+8.0	W+5.0	131.5	U109	85.7	90.6	61.8
Feb 6	YaleAdjEM #57	A	L 69–81	+15.0	W+3.0	139.0	O150	105.7	124.1	65.3
Jan 31	DartmouthAdjEM #254	H	L 70–77 OT	−2.0	L−9.0	143.0	O147	93.7	103.1	74.7
Jan 30	HarvardAdjEM #133	H	L 59–69	+1.5	L−8.5	133.0	U128	96.8	113.3	60.9
Jan 24	PrincetonAdjEM #251	A	L 53–63	+4.5	L−5.5	133.5	U116	83.1	98.7	63.8

Bryant

Against the spread

Season

11-18

Home

6-5

Road

5-13

Last 10

3-7

avg cover −3.5

Missed the spread 2 straightCovered 2 of 4 as a favoriteCovered 1 of 6 as an underdog

Over / under

Season

11-18

Home

7-4

Road

4-14

Last 10

7-3

avg vs total +10.6

Over 2 straightOver in 3 of 4 as a favoriteOver in 4 of 6 as an underdog

Last 10 games, newest first

Date	Opponent	Site	Result			Total		PPP for	PPP vs	Pace
Mar 7	VermontAdjEM #199	A	L 57–77	+12.0	L−8.0	131.5	O134	95.9	129.5	59.5
Mar 3	New HampshireAdjEM #340	A	L 83–88 2OT	+1.0	L−4.0	135.5	O171	106.3	112.7	78.1
Feb 28	NJITAdjEM #331	H	W 69–52	+1.5	W+18.5	138.5	U121	107.3	80.9	64.3
Feb 26	UMBCAdjEM #147	A	L 58–70	+10.0	L−2.0	138.0	U128	91.7	110.7	63.3
Feb 19	BinghamtonAdjEM #354	H	L 67–79	−5.5	L−17.5	135.0	O146	110.6	130.4	60.6
Feb 14	VermontAdjEM #199	A	L 63–90	+12.5	L−14.5	133.0	O153	94.4	134.8	66.8
Feb 12	UMass LowellAdjEM #308	A	L 69–88	+4.5	L−14.5	142.0	O157	105.6	134.7	65.3
Feb 7	MaineAdjEM #335	H	W 73–67	−2.5	W+3.5	128.0	O140	107.7	98.8	67.8
Feb 5	UAlbanyAdjEM #306	H	L 63–65	−1.0	L−3.0	134.0	U128	104.3	107.7	60.4
Jan 31	New HampshireAdjEM #340	H	W 92–84	−1.0	W+7.0	132.5	O176	124.4	113.6	73.9

Records vs the closing line describe the past; ten games is a small sample.

Tale of the tape

national rank toned left for away, right for home

BrownBryant

Efficiency

101.4

100.5

107.4

113.4

67.9

66.3

—

Shooting

48.6%

46.9%

50.4%

48.7%

30.3%

30.0%

68.4%

76.0%

28.1%

29.4%

Ball control & glass

19.5%

20.2%

18.7%

14.6%

29.0%

27.7%

30.0%

31.0%

11.3%

12.2%

9.4%

8.7%

Style

36.3%

47.9%

50.4%

39.2%

13.3%

7.9%

59.5%

53.1%

37.1%

28.4%

Roster

2.49

2.17

6'4.9"

6'7.1"

—

Offseason

roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model input

Brown

Returning minutes: 100.0%Returning production: 100.0%

ESPN hasn't posted Brown's roster for this season yet — no movement to show.

Returns 100% of last season's minutes. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026). (ESPN hasn't posted this season's roster yet -- this may still be last season's list.)

Bryant

Returning minutes: 100.0%Returning production: 100.0%

ESPN hasn't posted Bryant's roster for this season yet — no movement to show.

Head-to-head

this season and last

Date	Season	Result
Fri, Dec 5	2025-26	Bryant 56 – 75 Brown

The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — Pinnacle's spread and total (the median across books when Pinnacle has no line). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, built bottom-up from those same numbers: expected possessions times each side's opponent-adjusted points per possession, plus home court.

What these numbers mean: line shopping.