CBB Matchups

Every D1 game with tempo-free ratings, four factors and market lines, one place.

College basketball is being built for the 2026-27 season (tip-off Nov 3). What's here fills in as games are played.

Non-conferenceQubein Center, High Point, NC

Wagner

Efficiency #285

2025-26: 14-17 · 9-11 conf

High Point

Efficiency #50

2025-26: 31-5 · 18-1 conf

Fri, Dec 4 · 7:00 PM ET

68.6

win 10%

Projected

83.5

win 90%

No line posted yet.

Model: HPU −14.9 · total 152.1 · ratings as of Sat, Oct 3

Preseason ratings start from 2025-26's final adjusted ratings, regressed toward the D1 average. The stats below are 2025-26's too; both update once 2026-27 games are played.

How the projection is built

each step, from an average D-I game to this one

Projected total

Average D-I game

148.2

PaceAdjusted tempo: High Point 70.1, Wagner 67.0 → 68.8 possessions

+1.0

High Point offense vs Wagner defense

+6.9

Wagner offense vs High Point defense

−4.0

Projected total

152.1

Axis starts at 145 pointsPoints added or removed at each step

Projected margin

Even game

0.0

High Point offense vs Wagner defense

+6.9

Wagner offense vs High Point defense

+4.0

Home court+2.9 points per 100 possessions to the home offense, −2.9 to the visitors

+4.0

High Point by 14.9

14.9

Wagner side ◂▸ High Point side

Steps are rounded to one decimal, so they can differ from the total by 0.1. The margin is the same build seen from the home side; positive numbers help High Point.

Pace & total

possessions per 40 minutes

Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes

Projected possessions: 68.8, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw 2025-26 season pace, High Point is the faster team (71.2, #45 of 365) and Wagner the slower (65.3, #323). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (study weights 0.80 vs 0.66).

Projected possessions

68.8

per team, 40 min

Projected total

152.1

model

Projected team totals

68.6 / 83.5

Wagner / High Point

Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent

67.0#285

Wagner

70.1#43

High Point

How this game plays

what the study found each side's numbers actually do when these two teams meet

AdvantageWagner

Where Wagner struggles: ball control

Wagner turns it over on 18.5% of possessions (#301); High Point forces turnovers on 21.3% of opponent possessions (#8). Expect about 20.6%, 3.9 points above an average D1 matchup — worth roughly -4.8 points per 100 possessions.

AdvantageHigh Point

Where High Point scores: ball control

High Point turns it over on 12.8% of possessions (#5); Wagner forces turnovers on 14.9% of opponent possessions (#294). Expect about 13.4%, 3.4 points below an average D1 matchup — worth roughly +4.2 points per 100 possessions.

DefenseHigh Point

High Point's ball-hawking

High Point ranks #2 nationally in steal rate — one of the few defensive numbers that travels. Expect about 12.9% of Wagner's possessions to end in a steal against this defense.

Pace

Tempo tug-of-war

High Point averages 71.2 possessions per 40, Wagner 65.3. Slower teams pull the pace toward themselves more than fast teams push it (0.80 vs 0.66 in five seasons of games), so expect about 68 — more possessions mean more points in the total and more chances for the better team to separate.

Watch for noise

3-point caution

A notable season 3-point number here (Wagner) is close to a coin flip going forward — the study's model of next-game 3P% barely beats guessing the D1 average. Shot volume is what actually carries: expect Wagner at about 37.4% of its shots from three, High Point about 40.4%.

ClashHigh Point

Style clash: 3-point volume

High Point takes 43.6% of its shots from three; Wagner runs teams off the line (35.8% of shots allowed from three) (D1 average 39.5%). Expect about 40.4% — the offense's habit usually carries a bit more weight (0.80 vs 0.64).

Wagner has the ball

OffenseHigh Point allowsvs D1 avg

49.6% #262

50.5% #126

-2.0 pt/100

18.5% #301

21.3% #8

-4.8 pt/100

32.8% #96

31.1% #207

+1.2 pt/100

32.3% #252

35.5% #199

-0.1 pt/100

72.6% #184

—

+0.0 pt/100

Wagner net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: -5.6 pts/100

High Point has the ball

OffenseWagner allowsvs D1 avg

54.5% #51

50.4% #123

+2.0 pt/100

12.8% #5

14.9% #294

+4.2 pt/100

31.8% #131

29.6% #139

+0.4 pt/100

40.8% #50

40.8% #309

+0.8 pt/100

74.3% #112

—

+0.2 pt/100

High Point net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: +7.5 pts/100

Shot diet

Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot · 2025-26 numbers

Wagneroffense vsHigh Pointdefense

Share of shots by zone

Wagner shoots

40.3

7.6

16.3

35.8

High Point allows

41.2

5.0

13.1

40.8

D-I average

38.5

6.4

15.8

39.3

FG% by zone

Zone			D-I avg
Rim	50.3%#359	57.7%#138	58.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)	45.0%#64	40.5%#198	39.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)	40.0%#109	35.3%#83	38.0%
Three	36.6%#36	32.6%#97	33.7%

High Pointoffense vsWagnerdefense

Share of shots by zone

High Point shoots

44.7

4.2

7.4

43.7

Wagner allows

41.2

6.9

15.7

36.2

D-I average

38.5

6.4

15.8

39.3

FG% by zone

Zone			D-I avg
Rim	63.0%#50	53.5%#31	58.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)	33.8%#308	46.5%#326	39.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)	33.6%#320	37.5%#141	38.0%
Three	34.2%#161	34.3%#202	33.7%

RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three

Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).

Shot volume

Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line · 2025-26 numbers

Wagner

−3.4extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#312 of 365

Off reb %

32.8%

#96

Def reb %

70.4%

#139

Turnover %

18.5%

#301

Forced TO %

14.9%

#294

FT rate

32.3%

#252

FT allowed

40.8%

#309

Where the chances come from (per game)

Offensive rebounding+0.8

Defensive rebounding+0.3

Ball security−1.2

Forcing turnovers−1.2

Foul shots drawn−0.7

Foul shots allowed−1.4

High Point

+7.5extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#4 of 365

Off reb %

31.8%

#131

Def reb %

68.9%

#207

Turnover %

12.8%

Forced TO %

21.3%

FT rate

40.8%

#50

FT allowed

35.5%

#199

Where the chances come from (per game)

Offensive rebounding+0.5

Defensive rebounding−0.1

Ball security+2.7

Forcing turnovers+3.1

Foul shots drawn+1.5

Foul shots allowed−0.1

High Point has more extra scoring chances per game: +7.5 (#4 of 365) to Wagner’s −3.4 (#312).

Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).

Rotation

Wagner2025-26 numbers

ESPN hasn't posted Wagner's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
0	Nick Jones	G	Jr	6'2"	29-22	32.1	14.9	3.6	2.5	2.7	47.1%	28.3%	3.7	82.6%	31.7%
7	Eddie Placer	G	Jr	6'5"	30-14	25.9	8.5	2.4	1.3	1.1	51.1%	39.0%	4.5	77.8%	21.1%
9	Jaden Baker	G	Sr	6'2"	24-24	31.8	9.3	3.6	3.2	2.1	45.6%	35.4%	4.0	77.8%	22.2%
4	John Awoke	G	Jr	6'3"	29-10	26.2	7.1	3.0	2.0	1.4	48.7%	36.3%	3.5	78.6%	19.6%
22	Binael Basil	F	So	6'7"	30-21	22.7	8.9	6.1	1.1	1.5	57.3%	31.3%	0.5	56.4%	24.5%
10	Bryan Akanmu	F	Jr	6'6"	31-21	20.3	6.2	3.9	1.4	1.5	48.2%	0.0%	0.2	65.9%	23.0%
2	Travis Gray	G	Sr	6'5"	21-12	21.5	8.7	5.6	0.5	0.8	49.3%	34.9%	4.0	76.4%	25.4%
1	Zavier Fitch	F	So	6'7"	18-10	23.2	6.8	6.2	1.1	1.0	55.0%	37.9%	1.6	59.0%	17.9%
5	Michael Cooper	G	Jr	6'6"	31-5	13.4	4.8	2.4	0.6	0.9	48.6%	34.9%	1.4	82.4%	23.6%
15	Makhai Anderson	G	So	6'6"	22-7	9.5	3.4	2.2	0.4	0.4	50.0%	27.3%	0.5	67.6%	21.6%
3	Elijah Brown	G	Fr	6'4"	19-4	6.2	1.7	0.3	0.1	0.3	66.7%	66.7%	0.3	66.7%	14.8%
24	Sam Smith	F	Sr	6'6"	7-2	15.4	9.0	5.1	0.6	0.7	59.4%	33.3%	2.1	100.0%	28.8%
12	Huascar Cuevas	G	Jr	5'11"	5-3	13.4	2.6	1.0	0.6	1.6	55.0%	42.9%	1.4	100.0%	16.3%

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

High Point2025-26 numbers

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
3	Rob Martin	G	Sr	5'10"	35-35	27.3	16.0	2.0	3.9	1.6	48.2%	30.2%	4.5	83.9%	32.6%
8	Owen Aquino	F	Sr	6'8"	36-36	26.5	9.3	5.8	2.4	1.8	57.9%	44.4%	1.0	65.3%	19.8%
9	Conrad Martinez	G	Jr	6'0"	36-1	21.8	8.8	1.4	3.3	1.1	54.0%	32.8%	3.3	84.4%	21.8%
15	Braden Hausen	F	So	6'7"	36-25	20.3	6.7	2.9	1.2	0.4	54.2%	35.8%	4.4	79.2%	17.7%
12	Scotty Washington	G	Sr	6'4"	36-29	18.8	8.2	2.8	0.9	0.4	57.3%	37.9%	2.9	77.3%	21.0%
11	Cam'Ron Fletcher	F	Sr	6'7"	27-11	22.2	13.2	7.1	0.9	1.1	61.1%	36.2%	3.5	71.6%	28.8%
99	Chase Johnston	G	Sr	6'3"	33-11	13.8	6.6	0.8	0.5	0.2	71.2%	48.6%	4.4	100.0%	19.3%
2	Vincent Brady II	G	Sr	6'3"	25-0	16.4	5.2	1.9	1.6	0.6	44.7%	24.2%	2.6	80.6%	19.7%
24	Youssouf Singare	F	Jr	6'10"	32-0	7.7	1.3	1.9	0.1	0.4	68.2%	—	0.0	55.0%	9.9%
7	Caden Miller	F	Fr	6'9"	25-0	7.4	2.9	2.2	0.4	0.2	74.4%	—	0.0	28.6%	18.6%
4	Babacar Diallo	G	Sr	6'6"	16-0	7.9	2.4	0.8	0.6	0.4	72.7%	0.0%	0.1	43.8%	15.2%
19	Josh Ibukunoluwa	F	So	6'10"	16-0	6.5	2.8	2.0	0.3	0.0	63.0%	—	0.0	68.8%	18.1%
35	David Fonville	G	So	6'3"	11-0	3.1	0.5	0.3	0.2	0.0	20.0%	0.0%	0.3	100.0%	16.6%
14	Birgir Irving	F	So	6'7"	10-0	1.8	0.3	0.1	0.1	0.2	0.0%	0.0%	0.4	42.9%	36.4%
10	Dorian Grosber	G	Fr	6'7"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—
23	Kasen Krueger	G	Fr	6'1"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—
16	Liam Carney	G	Jr	6'6"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—
33	Mavrick Miller	G	So	6'4"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Wagner2025-26 numbers

ESPN hasn't posted Wagner's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
0	Nick Jones	G	Jr	6'2"	29-22	32.1	14.9	3.6	2.5	2.7	47.1%	28.3%	3.7	82.6%	31.7%
7	Eddie Placer	G	Jr	6'5"	30-14	25.9	8.5	2.4	1.3	1.1	51.1%	39.0%	4.5	77.8%	21.1%
9	Jaden Baker	G	Sr	6'2"	24-24	31.8	9.3	3.6	3.2	2.1	45.6%	35.4%	4.0	77.8%	22.2%
4	John Awoke	G	Jr	6'3"	29-10	26.2	7.1	3.0	2.0	1.4	48.7%	36.3%	3.5	78.6%	19.6%
22	Binael Basil	F	So	6'7"	30-21	22.7	8.9	6.1	1.1	1.5	57.3%	31.3%	0.5	56.4%	24.5%
10	Bryan Akanmu	F	Jr	6'6"	31-21	20.3	6.2	3.9	1.4	1.5	48.2%	0.0%	0.2	65.9%	23.0%
2	Travis Gray	G	Sr	6'5"	21-12	21.5	8.7	5.6	0.5	0.8	49.3%	34.9%	4.0	76.4%	25.4%
1	Zavier Fitch	F	So	6'7"	18-10	23.2	6.8	6.2	1.1	1.0	55.0%	37.9%	1.6	59.0%	17.9%
5	Michael Cooper	G	Jr	6'6"	31-5	13.4	4.8	2.4	0.6	0.9	48.6%	34.9%	1.4	82.4%	23.6%
15	Makhai Anderson	G	So	6'6"	22-7	9.5	3.4	2.2	0.4	0.4	50.0%	27.3%	0.5	67.6%	21.6%
3	Elijah Brown	G	Fr	6'4"	19-4	6.2	1.7	0.3	0.1	0.3	66.7%	66.7%	0.3	66.7%	14.8%
24	Sam Smith	F	Sr	6'6"	7-2	15.4	9.0	5.1	0.6	0.7	59.4%	33.3%	2.1	100.0%	28.8%
12	Huascar Cuevas	G	Jr	5'11"	5-3	13.4	2.6	1.0	0.6	1.6	55.0%	42.9%	1.4	100.0%	16.3%

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Trends

Last 10 games of 2025-26

Wagner

Against the spread

Season

15-12-1

Home

4-5-1

Road

11-7

Last 10

6-4

avg cover +3.2

Missed the spread in the last gameCovered 3 of 7 as an underdog

Over / under

Season

15-13

Home

5-5

Road

10-8

Last 10

4-6

avg vs total −1.9

Under 2 straightOver in 3 of 7 as an underdog

Last 10 games, newest first

Date	Opponent	Site	Result			Total		PPP for	PPP vs	Pace
Mar 7	Long IslandAdjEM #195	A	L 56–64	+6.5	L−1.5	139.0	U120	87.6	100.1	63.9
Mar 4	C ConnecticutAdjEM #277	A	W 70–60	+3.5	W+13.5	138.5	U130	114.0	97.7	61.4
Feb 28	Chicago StAdjEM #342	H	W 80–61	−5.0	W+14.0	135.5	O141	116.2	88.6	68.9
Feb 26	New HavenAdjEM #326	H	W 65–62	−2.0	W+1.0	131.5	U127	104.3	99.5	62.3
Feb 21	Saint Francis Red Wolves	A	W 65–56	−1.5	W+7.5	152.0	U121	100.0	86.2	65.0
Feb 19	MercyhurstAdjEM #261	A	W 83–80 OT	+3.5	W+6.5	134.5	O163	111.4	107.3	74.5
Feb 16	Long IslandAdjEM #195	A	L 65–83	+10.5	L−7.5	137.0	O148	101.9	130.1	63.8
Feb 14	StonehillAdjEM #320	A	W 68–57	+3.0	W+14.0	129.5	U125	103.2	86.5	65.9
Feb 12	Long IslandAdjEM #195	H	L 57–67	+6.5	L−3.5	135.0	U124	81.2	95.5	70.2
Feb 7	C ConnecticutAdjEM #277	A	L 67–84	+5.0	L−12.0	136.5	O151	102.0	127.9	65.7

High Point

Against the spread

Season

17-16

Home

8-7

Road

4-5

Last 10

5-5

avg cover +1.9

Covered 3 straightCovered 3 of 8 as a favoriteCovered 4 of 8 with a line of 10+

Over / under

Season

22-11

Home

8-7

Road

7-2

Last 10

7-3

avg vs total +3.4

Over 3 straightOver in 5 of 8 as a favoriteOver in 5 of 8 with a line of 10+

Last 10 games, newest first

Date	Opponent	Site	Result			Total		PPP for	PPP vs	Pace
Mar 21	#4ArkansasAdjEM #19	N	L 88–94	+12.0	W+6.0	170.5	O182	113.8	121.5	77.4
Mar 19	#5WisconsinAdjEM #28	N	W 83–82	+10.0	W+11.0	161.5	O165	113.7	112.3	73.0
Mar 8	WinthropAdjEM #116	N	W 91–76	−7.0	W+8.0	157.5	O167	116.0	96.9	78.5
Mar 7	UNC AshevilleAdjEM #226	N	W 75–71	−13.0	L−9.0	147.5	U146	110.5	104.6	67.9
Mar 6	Gardner-WebbAdjEM #363	N	W 81–59	−27.5	L−5.5	156.5	U140	115.3	84.0	70.3
Feb 26	PresbyterianAdjEM #252	A	W 79–73	−11.5	L−5.5	151.5	O152	115.6	106.8	68.3
Feb 21	WinthropAdjEM #116	H	W 89–87	−9.5	L−7.5	166.5	O176	120.5	117.8	73.9
Feb 19	UNC AshevilleAdjEM #226	H	W 74–48	−15.0	W+11.0	152.0	U122	115.0	74.6	64.4
Feb 14	Gardner-WebbAdjEM #363	A	W 112–87	−25.5	L−0.5	162.0	O199	143.5	111.4	78.1
Feb 12	SC UpstateAdjEM #284	A	W 95–70	−14.0	W+11.0	154.5	O165	126.6	93.3	75.1

Records vs the closing line describe the past; ten games is a small sample.

Tale of the tape

national rank toned left for away, right for home

WagnerHigh Point

Efficiency

105.3

115.4

111.6

105.8

67.0

70.1

—

Shooting

49.6%

54.5%

46.6%

57.0%

36.6%

34.2%

72.6%

74.3%

32.3%

40.8%

Ball control & glass

18.5%

12.8%

14.9%

21.3%

32.8%

31.8%

29.6%

31.1%

10.7%

6.8%

10.4%

10.7%

Style

36.1%

43.6%

41.6%

43.6%

9.4%

18.9%

48.9%

52.8%

36.5%

38.5%

Roster

2.97

3.47

6'4.4"

6'4.2"

—

86.6%

Offseason

roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model input

Wagner

Returning minutes: 100.0%Returning production: 100.0%

ESPN hasn't posted Wagner's roster for this season yet — no movement to show.

Returns 100% of last season's minutes. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026). (ESPN hasn't posted this season's roster yet -- this may still be last season's list.)

High Point

Returning minutes: 86.6%Returning production: 82.8%

Lost

Terry Anderson 26.9 mpg, 16.0 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet

Added

Kasen Krueger no D1 minutes last season
Mavrick Miller no D1 minutes last season
Dorian Grosber no D1 minutes last season
Liam Carney no D1 minutes last season

No incoming D1 transfers are listed on ESPN's roster yet — until they are, returning shares read high.

Returns 87% of last season's minutes; lost 1 of its top 5. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026).

Head-to-head

this season and last

No meetings the last two seasons.

The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — Pinnacle's spread and total (the median across books when Pinnacle has no line). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, built bottom-up from those same numbers: expected possessions times each side's opponent-adjusted points per possession, plus home court.

What these numbers mean: line shopping.