CBB Matchups

Every D1 game with tempo-free ratings, four factors and market lines, one place.

College basketball is being built for the 2026-27 season (tip-off Nov 3). What's here fills in as games are played.

Non-conferenceNeutral siteCareFirst Arena, Washington, DCChris Paul HBCU Classic

Grambling

Efficiency #290

2025-26: 14-19 · 8-12 conf

Tennessee St

Efficiency #155

2025-26: 23-10 · 17-5 conf

Fri, Dec 4 · 9:00 PM ET

71.0

win 32%

Projected

76.4

win 68%

No line posted yet.

Model: TNST −5.4 · total 147.4 · ratings as of Sat, Oct 3

Preseason ratings start from 2025-26's final adjusted ratings, regressed toward the D1 average. The stats below are 2025-26's too; both update once 2026-27 games are played.

How the projection is built

each step, from an average D-I game to this one

Projected total

Average D-I game

148.2

PaceAdjusted tempo: Tennessee St 70.3, Grambling 68.4 → 70.4 possessions

+4.5

Tennessee St offense vs Grambling defense

+0.1

Grambling offense vs Tennessee St defense

−5.4

Projected total

147.4

Axis starts at 144 pointsPoints added or removed at each step

Projected margin

Even game

0.0

Tennessee St offense vs Grambling defense

+0.1

Grambling offense vs Tennessee St defense

+5.4

Tennessee St by 5.4

5.4

Grambling side ◂▸ Tennessee St side

Steps are rounded to one decimal, so they can differ from the total by 0.1: the margin steps add to +5.5 against +5.4. The margin is the same build seen from the home side; positive numbers help Tennessee St.

Pace & total

possessions per 40 minutes

Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes

Projected possessions: 70.4, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw 2025-26 season pace, Tennessee St is the faster team (70.8, #61 of 365) and Grambling the slower (69.4, #123). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (study weights 0.80 vs 0.66).

Projected possessions

70.4

per team, 40 min

Projected total

147.4

model

Projected team totals

71.0 / 76.4

Grambling / Tennessee St

Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent

68.4#174

Grambling

70.3#32

Tennessee St

How this game plays

what the study found each side's numbers actually do when these two teams meet

AdvantageGrambling

Where Grambling struggles: ball control

Grambling turns it over on 21.2% of possessions (#357); Tennessee St forces turnovers on 19.8% of opponent possessions (#28). Expect about 21.2%, 4.5 points above an average D1 matchup — worth roughly -5.5 points per 100 possessions.

DefenseTennessee St

Tennessee St's ball-hawking

Tennessee St ranks #14 nationally in steal rate — one of the few defensive numbers that travels. Expect about 12.6% of Grambling's possessions to end in a steal against this defense.

AdvantageTennessee St

Where Tennessee St struggles: ball control

Tennessee St turns it over on 16.7% of possessions (#176); Grambling forces turnovers on 20.8% of opponent possessions (#12). Expect about 19.3%, 2.5 points above an average D1 matchup — worth roughly -3.1 points per 100 possessions.

ClashTennessee St

Style match: 3-point volume

Tennessee St rarely shoots threes (30.7% of its shots); Grambling runs teams off the line (35.2% of shots allowed from three) (D1 average 39.5%). Expect about 29.7% — both habits push the same way.

Pace

Track meet

Tennessee St averages 70.8 possessions per 40, Grambling 69.4. Slower teams pull the pace toward themselves more than fast teams push it (0.80 vs 0.66 in five seasons of games), so expect about 71 — more possessions mean more points in the total and more chances for the better team to separate.

GlassTennessee St

Tennessee St owns the glass

Projected offensive rebound rate of 34.5% is worth roughly +2.5 points per 100 possessions for Tennessee St's offense.

Grambling has the ball

OffenseTennessee St allowsvs D1 avg

48.8% #295

51.6% #190

-1.8 pt/100

21.2% #357

19.8% #28

-5.5 pt/100

30.3% #188

30.6% #184

+0.0 pt/100

41.1% #45

41.4% #317

+0.8 pt/100

72.9% #172

—

+0.0 pt/100

Grambling net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: -6.4 pts/100

Tennessee St has the ball

OffenseGrambling allowsvs D1 avg

50.0% #234

50.0% #97

-2.0 pt/100

16.7% #176

20.8% #12

-3.1 pt/100

34.8% #53

32.5% #280

+2.5 pt/100

33.4% #228

40.0% #302

+0.3 pt/100

76.0% #52

—

+0.3 pt/100

Tennessee St net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: -2.0 pts/100

Shot diet

Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot · 2025-26 numbers

Gramblingoffense vsTennessee Stdefense

Share of shots by zone

Grambling shoots

41.6

5.1

15.0

38.4

Tennessee St allows

44.2

6.1

14.2

35.5

D-I average

38.5

6.4

15.8

39.3

FG% by zone

Zone			D-I avg
Rim	56.0%#273	56.3%#93	58.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)	26.0%#364	42.9%#247	39.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)	32.9%#330	40.7%#264	38.0%
Three	32.3%#265	34.0%#183	33.7%

Tennessee Stoffense vsGramblingdefense

Share of shots by zone

Tennessee St shoots

40.8

6.0

23.8

29.5

Grambling allows

43.0

5.1

17.5

34.4

D-I average

38.5

6.4

15.8

39.3

FG% by zone

Zone			D-I avg
Rim	59.4%#151	56.4%#97	58.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)	34.0%#303	30.3%#16	39.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)	36.4%#256	36.9%#126	38.0%
Three	33.3%#208	32.7%#99	33.7%

RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three

Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).

Shot volume

Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line · 2025-26 numbers

Grambling

−0.5extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#201 of 365

Off reb %

30.3%

#188

Def reb %

67.5%

#280

Turnover %

21.2%

#357

Forced TO %

20.8%

#12

FT rate

41.1%

#45

FT allowed

40.0%

#302

Where the chances come from (per game)

Offensive rebounding0.0

Defensive rebounding−0.6

Ball security−3.0

Forcing turnovers+2.8

Foul shots drawn+1.6

Foul shots allowed−1.2

Tennessee St

+1.6extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#115 of 365

Off reb %

34.8%

#53

Def reb %

69.4%

#184

Turnover %

16.7%

#176

Forced TO %

19.8%

#28

FT rate

33.4%

#228

FT allowed

41.4%

#317

Where the chances come from (per game)

Offensive rebounding+1.4

Defensive rebounding0.0

Ball security+0.1

Forcing turnovers+2.1

Foul shots drawn−0.4

Foul shots allowed−1.6

Tennessee St has more extra scoring chances per game: +1.6 (#115 of 365) to Grambling’s −0.5 (#201).

Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).

Rotation

Grambling2025-26 numbers

ESPN hasn't posted Grambling's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
1	Roderick Coffee III	F	Sr	6'4"	31-31	33.5	10.9	4.6	4.2	2.6	50.4%	37.5%	3.9	75.3%	21.6%
0	Derrius Ward	G	Sr	6'6"	32-20	30.7	10.7	3.2	2.4	2.2	47.5%	33.3%	4.7	78.5%	23.4%
11	Jamil Muttilib	G	Sr	6'6"	33-23	26.9	12.1	3.4	0.5	1.2	52.8%	32.6%	5.3	82.4%	25.3%
3	Rickey Ballard	F	Sr	6'7"	33-22	22.3	7.1	2.7	0.9	0.8	54.7%	37.6%	4.0	75.4%	17.9%
15	Antonio Munoz	F	Fr	6'6"	28-21	24.8	12.5	3.5	2.0	2.5	47.4%	5.9%	0.6	66.3%	33.1%
21	Devyn Franklin	G	Sr	6'8"	33-23	19.2	4.8	4.5	0.7	1.2	42.0%	4.8%	0.6	68.8%	18.6%
5	Jimel Lane	F	Sr	6'7"	28-14	22.4	8.3	4.5	1.0	1.7	46.4%	21.4%	1.5	80.0%	24.3%
24	Randarius Jones	C	Sr	6'7"	20-7	15.6	5.0	3.1	0.5	1.1	48.7%	—	0.0	78.8%	21.3%
23	Mekhi Fitts	F	Jr	6'7"	23-3	10.7	3.3	2.5	0.3	1.0	64.4%	66.7%	0.1	58.1%	19.0%
10	Richard Amaefule	F	Sr	6'9"	14-0	8.2	1.5	0.9	0.1	0.7	35.0%	0.0%	0.1	87.5%	16.9%
7	Saliou Seye	F	Sr	7'0"	15-1	7.1	1.8	1.4	0.1	0.7	50.0%	0.0%	0.3	23.1%	22.0%
4	P.J. Edwards	G	Sr	6'4"	13-0	8.2	0.9	1.0	0.3	0.4	21.1%	0.0%	0.8	100.0%	14.3%
20	Chancellor Perkins	G	Fr	6'2"	15-0	5.9	1.3	0.7	0.4	0.4	52.9%	66.7%	0.4	100.0%	15.1%
2	Nazar Mahmoud	G	Jr	6'5"	2-0	13.5	5.0	2.0	1.5	1.0	37.5%	0.0%	2.0	80.0%	22.7%

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Tennessee St2025-26 numbers

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
10	Dante Harris	G	Sr	6'0"	33-33	32.3	11.7	3.6	4.5	1.9	43.9%	30.0%	1.5	72.6%	24.1%
2	Travis Harper II	G	Sr	6'6"	33-32	31.3	17.1	4.1	1.2	1.5	57.4%	39.1%	6.3	85.7%	27.2%
12	Carlous Williams	F	Sr	6'5"	32-9	19.4	5.6	3.1	0.5	1.1	50.7%	32.1%	1.7	76.7%	18.0%
3	Khalil London	G	So	6'3"	24-0	15.3	6.4	1.6	1.1	1.3	39.7%	23.6%	3.0	75.0%	30.1%
7	Jabrion Spikes	G	Sr	6'2"	30-0	10.9	3.0	1.3	0.3	0.6	53.3%	25.0%	0.7	69.2%	16.7%
23	Kavien Jones	F	Fr	6'7"	30-0	10.6	2.7	2.4	0.2	0.2	60.3%	40.0%	0.2	44.4%	13.0%
1	Damon Howard Jr.	G	Fr	6'1"	21-0	7.3	1.7	0.7	0.9	0.3	32.2%	25.0%	1.0	77.8%	20.2%
4	JC Brooks	F	So	6'10"	18-1	8.1	1.7	2.0	0.3	0.5	47.8%	28.6%	0.4	60.0%	14.4%
31	Alex Garcia	F	Jr	6'9"	10-0	2.5	0.7	0.2	0.0	0.3	43.8%	16.7%	0.6	—	23.2%
20	Jayden Jones	G	Fr	6'4"	4-0	3.3	1.8	0.3	0.0	0.0	37.5%	0.0%	0.3	100.0%	32.6%
21	Jean Yvens Lafleur	F	Jr	6'11"	2-0	6.0	1.0	2.5	0.0	0.5	50.0%	—	0.0	—	13.0%
5	Maddux Bodenhamer	G	So	6'2"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—
24	Ogien Ayo	F	Sr	6'9"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Grambling2025-26 numbers

ESPN hasn't posted Grambling's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
1	Roderick Coffee III	F	Sr	6'4"	31-31	33.5	10.9	4.6	4.2	2.6	50.4%	37.5%	3.9	75.3%	21.6%
0	Derrius Ward	G	Sr	6'6"	32-20	30.7	10.7	3.2	2.4	2.2	47.5%	33.3%	4.7	78.5%	23.4%
11	Jamil Muttilib	G	Sr	6'6"	33-23	26.9	12.1	3.4	0.5	1.2	52.8%	32.6%	5.3	82.4%	25.3%
3	Rickey Ballard	F	Sr	6'7"	33-22	22.3	7.1	2.7	0.9	0.8	54.7%	37.6%	4.0	75.4%	17.9%
15	Antonio Munoz	F	Fr	6'6"	28-21	24.8	12.5	3.5	2.0	2.5	47.4%	5.9%	0.6	66.3%	33.1%
21	Devyn Franklin	G	Sr	6'8"	33-23	19.2	4.8	4.5	0.7	1.2	42.0%	4.8%	0.6	68.8%	18.6%
5	Jimel Lane	F	Sr	6'7"	28-14	22.4	8.3	4.5	1.0	1.7	46.4%	21.4%	1.5	80.0%	24.3%
24	Randarius Jones	C	Sr	6'7"	20-7	15.6	5.0	3.1	0.5	1.1	48.7%	—	0.0	78.8%	21.3%
23	Mekhi Fitts	F	Jr	6'7"	23-3	10.7	3.3	2.5	0.3	1.0	64.4%	66.7%	0.1	58.1%	19.0%
10	Richard Amaefule	F	Sr	6'9"	14-0	8.2	1.5	0.9	0.1	0.7	35.0%	0.0%	0.1	87.5%	16.9%
7	Saliou Seye	F	Sr	7'0"	15-1	7.1	1.8	1.4	0.1	0.7	50.0%	0.0%	0.3	23.1%	22.0%
4	P.J. Edwards	G	Sr	6'4"	13-0	8.2	0.9	1.0	0.3	0.4	21.1%	0.0%	0.8	100.0%	14.3%
20	Chancellor Perkins	G	Fr	6'2"	15-0	5.9	1.3	0.7	0.4	0.4	52.9%	66.7%	0.4	100.0%	15.1%
2	Nazar Mahmoud	G	Jr	6'5"	2-0	13.5	5.0	2.0	1.5	1.0	37.5%	0.0%	2.0	80.0%	22.7%

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Trends

Last 10 games of 2025-26

Grambling

Against the spread

Season

13-16-2

Home

4-6

Road

6-9-2

Last 10

3-7

avg cover −3.7

Missed the spread in the last gameCovered 2 of 6 as a favoriteCovered 1 of 4 as an underdog

Over / under

Season

10-20-1

Home

3-7

Road

5-11-1

Last 10

4-5-1

avg vs total −2.1

Under 3 straightOver in 2 of 6 as a favoriteOver in 2 of 4 as an underdog, 1 push

Last 10 games, newest first

Date	Opponent	Site	Result			Total		PPP for	PPP vs	Pace
Mar 10	Jackson StAdjEM #353	N	L 65–68	−7.0	L−10.0	140.5	U133	94.7	99.1	68.6
Mar 9	Miss Valley StAdjEM #365	N	W 77–52	−13.5	W+11.5	137.0	U129	116.2	78.5	66.2
Mar 5	Alabama StAdjEM #324	A	W 65–63	+2.5	W+4.5	145.5	U128	91.9	89.0	70.8
Mar 3	Alabama A&MAdjEM #312	A	L 63–77	+2.0	L−12.0	140.0	P140	98.8	120.8	63.8
Feb 28	Florida A&MAdjEM #316	H	L 59–66	−5.0	L−12.0	141.0	U125	87.5	97.9	67.4
Feb 26	BethuneAdjEM #260	H	L 71–76	−1.0	L−6.0	144.0	O147	93.3	99.8	76.1
Feb 23	Miss Valley StAdjEM #365	H	W 83–62	−16.0	W+5.0	137.0	O145	105.2	78.6	78.9
Feb 21	SouthernAdjEM #286	A	L 73–87	+5.5	L−8.5	143.0	O160	97.8	116.6	74.6
Feb 16	Prairie ViewAdjEM #303	A	L 63–68	−2.5	L−7.5	152.0	U131	89.4	96.5	70.5
Feb 14	Texas SouthernAdjEM #321	A	L 79–82	+1.0	L−2.0	140.0	O161	112.3	116.5	70.4

Tennessee St

Against the spread

Season

18-12

Home

5-5

Road

11-6

Last 10

7-3

avg cover +8.9

Missed the spread in the last gameCovered 5 of 7 as a favorite

Over / under

Season

15-15

Home

5-5

Road

8-9

Last 10

4-6

avg vs total +1.1

Over 2 straightOver in 3 of 7 as a favorite

Last 10 games, newest first

Date	Opponent	Site	Result			Total		PPP for	PPP vs	Pace
Mar 20	#2Iowa StateAdjEM #7	N	L 74–108	+25.0	L−9.0	147.5	O182	94.4	137.7	78.4
Mar 7	Morehead StAdjEM #266	N	W 93–67	−5.0	W+21.0	144.0	O160	133.2	96.0	69.8
Mar 6	UT MartinAdjEM #182	N	W 68–55	−2.0	W+11.0	137.5	U123	111.4	90.1	61.1
Feb 28	UT MartinAdjEM #182	A	W 67–42	+2.5	W+27.5	143.5	U109	101.5	63.6	66.0
Feb 26	SE MissouriAdjEM #209	A	W 79–71	+3.5	W+11.5	152.0	U150	107.3	96.4	73.6
Feb 21	SIUEAdjEM #229	H	W 80–53	−4.5	W+22.5	143.5	U133	125.6	83.2	63.7
Feb 19	LindenwoodAdjEM #244	H	W 89–80	−3.5	W+5.5	159.0	O169	112.2	100.9	79.3
Feb 14	Morehead StAdjEM #266	A	L 86–94	−1.5	L−9.5	151.0	O180	124.3	135.8	69.2
Feb 12	S IndianaAdjEM #333	A	W 73–71	−6.0	L−4.0	148.5	U144	110.2	107.2	66.2
Feb 7	W IllinoisAdjEM #362	H	W 83–56	−14.5	W+12.5	151.0	U139	121.9	82.3	68.1

Records vs the closing line describe the past; ten games is a small sample.

Tale of the tape

national rank toned left for away, right for home

GramblingTennessee St

Efficiency

101.0

109.4

107.7

108.3

68.4

70.3

—

Shooting

48.8%

50.0%

48.9%

50.0%

32.3%

33.3%

72.9%

76.0%

41.1%

33.4%

Ball control & glass

21.2%

16.7%

20.8%

19.8%

30.3%

34.8%

32.5%

30.6%

12.2%

10.3%

13.1%

7.7%

Style

38.1%

30.7%

41.9%

45.1%

16.5%

18.3%

51.6%

45.5%

32.7%

29.7%

Roster

3.60

3.38

6'6.2"

6'3.7"

—

61.6%

Offseason

roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model input

Grambling

Returning minutes: 100.0%Returning production: 100.0%

ESPN hasn't posted Grambling's roster for this season yet — no movement to show.

Returns 100% of last season's minutes. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026). (ESPN hasn't posted this season's roster yet -- this may still be last season's list.)

Tennessee St

Returning minutes: 61.6%Returning production: 51.9%

Lost

Aaron Nkrumah 31.3 mpg, 17.7 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
Jalen Pitre 24.3 mpg, 6.4 ppg · transferred to Buffalo
Antoine Lorick III 21.5 mpg, 9.8 ppg · transferred to Buffalo

Added

Maddux Bodenhamer no D1 minutes last season
Ogien Ayo no D1 minutes last season

No incoming D1 transfers are listed on ESPN's roster yet — until they are, returning shares read high.

Returns 62% of last season's minutes; lost 3 of its top 5 (2 transferred).

Head-to-head

this season and last

No meetings the last two seasons.

The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — Pinnacle's spread and total (the median across books when Pinnacle has no line). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, built bottom-up from those same numbers: expected possessions times each side's opponent-adjusted points per possession, plus home court.

What these numbers mean: line shopping.