CBB Matchups

Every D1 game with tempo-free ratings, four factors and market lines, one place.

College basketball is being built for the 2026-27 season (tip-off Nov 3). What's here fills in as games are played.
Conference gameHynes Athletics Center, New Rochelle, NY
Quinnipiac
Efficiency #190
2025-26: 19-13 · 12-9 conf
@
Iona
Efficiency #227
2025-26: 18-14 · 10-11 conf
Fri, Dec 4 · 7:00 PM ET
73.4
win 41%
Projected
76.1
win 59%
No line posted yet.
Model: IONA −2.7 · total 149.6 · ratings as of Sat, Oct 3
Preseason ratings start from 2025-26's final adjusted ratings, regressed toward the D1 average. The stats below are 2025-26's too; both update once 2026-27 games are played.

How the projection is built

each step, from an average D-I game to this one
Projected total
Average D-I game
148.2
PaceAdjusted tempo: Iona 69.4, Quinnipiac 70.1 → 71.2 possessions
+6.2
Iona offense vs Quinnipiac defense
−3.1
Quinnipiac offense vs Iona defense
−1.7
Projected total
149.6
Axis starts at 145 pointsPoints added or removed at each step
Projected margin
Even game
0.0
Iona offense vs Quinnipiac defense
−3.1
Quinnipiac offense vs Iona defense
+1.7
Home court+2.9 points per 100 possessions to the home offense, −2.9 to the visitors
+4.1
Iona by 2.7
2.7
Quinnipiac side ◂▸ Iona side

Steps are rounded to one decimal, so they can differ from the total by 0.1. The margin is the same build seen from the home side; positive numbers help Iona.

Pace & total

possessions per 40 minutes
Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes

Projected possessions: 71.2, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw 2025-26 season pace, Quinnipiac is the faster team (69.7, #101 of 365) and Iona the slower (68.4, #177). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (study weights 0.80 vs 0.66).

Projected possessions
71.2
per team, 40 min
Projected total
149.6
model
Projected team totals
73.4 / 76.1
Quinnipiac / Iona
Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent
70.1#45
Quinnipiac
69.4#87
Iona

How this game plays

what the study found each side's numbers actually do when these two teams meet
AdvantageQuinnipiac
Where Quinnipiac struggles: shooting
Quinnipiac shoots an effective 48.2% (#310); Iona allows 48.9% (#64). Expect about 48.3%, 3.0 points below an average D1 matchup — worth roughly -4.3 points per 100 possessions.
Watch for noise
3-point caution
A notable season 3-point number here (Iona's defense) is close to a coin flip going forward — the study's model of next-game 3P% barely beats guessing the D1 average. Shot volume is what actually carries: expect Quinnipiac at about 35.6% of its shots from three, Iona about 42.0%.
GlassQuinnipiac
Quinnipiac owns the glass
Projected offensive rebound rate of 33.4% is worth roughly +1.8 points per 100 possessions for Quinnipiac's offense.
ClashIona
Style clash: 3-point volume
Iona takes 45.9% of its shots from three; Quinnipiac runs teams off the line (35.4% of shots allowed from three) (D1 average 39.5%). Expect about 42.0% — the offense's habit usually carries a bit more weight (0.80 vs 0.64).
Quinnipiac has the ball
OffenseIona allowsvs D1 avg
48.2% #310
48.9% #64
-4.3 pt/100
15.9% #130
16.6% #178
+0.7 pt/100
34.1% #65
31.2% #212
+1.8 pt/100
33.8% #217
28.8% #40
-0.5 pt/100
69.1% #297
—
-0.3 pt/100
Quinnipiac net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: -2.6 pts/100
Iona has the ball
OffenseQuinnipiac allowsvs D1 avg
51.9% #149
48.9% #65
-1.2 pt/100
17.2% #221
17.4% #127
-0.8 pt/100
27.8% #274
32.0% #253
-0.7 pt/100
29.3% #326
30.6% #75
-0.7 pt/100
70.7% #250
—
-0.2 pt/100
Iona net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: -3.5 pts/100

Shot diet

Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot · 2025-26 numbers
Quinnipiacoffense vsIonadefense
Share of shots by zone
Quinnipiac shoots
Iona allows
D-I average
FG% by zone
ZoneD-I avg
Rim54.9%#30157.4%#12658.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)30.0%#34939.5%#17439.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)31.1%#34635.9%#10738.0%
Three34.0%#17130.6%#2533.7%
Ionaoffense vsQuinnipiacdefense
Share of shots by zone
Iona shoots
Quinnipiac allows
D-I average
FG% by zone
ZoneD-I avg
Rim55.7%#28152.6%#2058.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)37.2%#24135.1%#6039.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)39.8%#11735.1%#8138.0%
Three35.1%#10534.9%#24233.7%
RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three

Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).

Shot volume

Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line · 2025-26 numbers
Quinnipiac
+2.7extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#66 of 365
Off reb %
34.1%
#65
Def reb %
68.0%
#253
Turnover %
15.9%
#130
Forced TO %
17.4%
#127
FT rate
33.8%
#217
FT allowed
30.6%
#75
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding+1.2
Defensive rebounding−0.4
Ball security+0.6
Forcing turnovers+0.5
Foul shots drawn−0.3
Foul shots allowed+1.2
Iona
−1.2extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#242 of 365
Off reb %
27.8%
#274
Def reb %
68.8%
#212
Turnover %
17.2%
#221
Forced TO %
16.6%
#178
FT rate
29.3%
#326
FT allowed
28.8%
#40
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding−0.8
Defensive rebounding−0.2
Ball security−0.3
Forcing turnovers−0.1
Foul shots drawn−1.5
Foul shots allowed+1.7

Quinnipiac has more extra scoring chances per game: +2.7 (#66 of 365) to Iona’s −1.2 (#242).

Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).

Rotation

Quinnipiac2025-26 numbers
#PlayerPosClHtGP-GSMPGPPGRPGAPGTOVeFG%3P%3PA/gFT%UsageStatus
21Keith McKnightFSo6'7"32-424.811.05.91.11.355.4%26.7%0.562.5%24.9%
12Holden Pierre-Louisat Cleveland StFFr6'8"30-2115.63.32.71.01.356.4%0.0%0.138.7%16.0%
9Nate GuerengombaGJr6'4"29-414.12.51.70.70.637.2%17.6%0.660.0%14.3%
4Tai TurnageGSo6'0"30-012.63.61.32.10.438.2%33.3%1.881.1%20.1%
3Nas Hartat La SalleFSo6'10"20-310.62.33.00.00.337.2%—0.061.9%16.1%
13Braylan RitvoFSo6'8"8-06.51.50.60.10.040.0%33.3%0.80.0%16.9%
34Akintola AkinniyiFSr6'7"5-03.80.40.20.00.025.0%—0.00.0%13.9%
10Christopher SkenderiFSo6'7"4-03.33.31.50.30.592.9%75.0%1.0—36.8%
1Jayden ReidFSo6'10"0-00.00.00.00.00.0——0.0——
11Ali DioufFFr6'9"0-00.00.00.00.00.0——0.0——
0Lucas SekasiGJr6'6"0-00.00.00.00.00.0——0.0——
2Malik FieldsGFr6'4"0-00.00.00.00.00.0——0.0——
24Mike ParrottaGSr6'5"0-00.00.00.00.00.0——0.0——
17Nedas CholevinskasFFr6'5"0-00.00.00.00.00.0——0.0——
5Tayeshawn Cunningham-PembertonGSr6'3"0-00.00.00.00.00.0——0.0——
Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.
Transfers in: Nas Hart (from La Salle), Holden Pierre-Louis (from Cleveland St)

Tale of the tape

national rank toned left for away, right for home
QuinnipiacIona
Efficiency
106.0
105.8
106.8
108.5
70.1
69.4
—
—
Shooting
48.2%
51.9%
46.7%
51.2%
34.0%
35.1%
69.1%
70.7%
33.8%
29.3%
Ball control & glass
15.9%
17.2%
17.4%
16.6%
34.1%
27.8%
32.0%
31.2%
9.4%
10.7%
11.2%
11.1%
Style
33.7%
45.9%
43.5%
40.3%
15.7%
11.8%
49.4%
53.7%
29.9%
31.4%
Roster
1.99
3.25
6'5.8"
6'6"
25.8%
27.4%

Offseason

roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model input
Quinnipiac
Returning minutes: 25.8%Returning production: 25.9%
Lost
  • Grant Randall 31.7 mpg, 11.4 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
  • Amarri Monroe 31.3 mpg, 14.7 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
  • Asim Jones 28.8 mpg, 12.5 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
  • Jaden Zimmerman 26.3 mpg, 12.3 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
  • Spence Wewe 16.5 mpg, 2.6 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
  • Samson Reilly 7.8 mpg, 3.8 ppg · transferred to Sacred Heart
Added
  • Holden Pierre-Louis from Cleveland St · 14.2 mpg, 3.0 ppg last season
  • Nas Hart from La Salle · 6.6 mpg, 1.4 ppg last season
  • Ali Diouf no D1 minutes last season
  • Jayden Reid no D1 minutes last season
  • Nedas Cholevinskas no D1 minutes last season
  • Mike Parrotta no D1 minutes last season

Returns 26% of last season's minutes; lost 4 of its top 5. Teams returning under 40% of last season's minutes have historically fallen about 0.8 points of AdjEM (n=716 team-seasons, 2022-2026).

Iona
Returning minutes: 27.4%Returning production: 24.8%
Lost
  • CJ Anthony 30.8 mpg, 13.9 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
  • Lamin Sabally 29.4 mpg, 11.0 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
  • Denver Anglin 27.2 mpg, 9.0 ppg · transferred to Merrimack
  • Toby Harris 26.2 mpg, 11.2 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
  • Keshawn Williams 11.5 mpg, 4.3 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
  • Khalil Badru 9.8 mpg, 3.5 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
Added
  • Kevon Vanderhorst from Drexel · 29.9 mpg, 9.3 ppg last season
  • Martin Kheil from Idaho St · 27.8 mpg, 8.5 ppg last season
  • Aiden Disu from Holy Cross · 24.1 mpg, 9.5 ppg last season
  • Sadiku Ibine Ayo from St John's · 6.2 mpg, 1.4 ppg last season
  • Keyshawn Mitchell from VCU · 5.9 mpg, 1.8 ppg last season
  • Ore Odutayo no D1 minutes last season

Returns 27% of last season's minutes; lost 4 of its top 5 (1 transferred). Teams returning under 40% of last season's minutes have historically fallen about 0.8 points of AdjEM (n=716 team-seasons, 2022-2026).

Head-to-head

this season and last
DateSeasonResult
Fri, Dec 52025-26Quinnipiac 89 – 68 Iona

The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — Pinnacle's spread and total (the median across books when Pinnacle has no line). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, built bottom-up from those same numbers: expected possessions times each side's opponent-adjusted points per possession, plus home court.

What these numbers mean: line shopping.