Northern Kentucky Norse vs South Dakota Coyotes basketball final score
Wed, Nov 4 · 8:00 PM ET · Sanford Coyote Sports Center, Vermillion, SD
Non-conferenceSanford Coyote Sports Center, Vermillion, SD
N Kentucky
1-0 · 0-0 conf
Efficiency #154
@
South Dakota
2025-26: 16-16 · 8-9 conf
Efficiency #275
Final
10294
Final score
Projected 78.6 – 79.4
NKU win 47%SDAK win 53%
MarketClose
Spread
NKU −2.5
open NKU −1.5
Total
162.5
open 158.0
Our line
SDAK −0.8
as of Wed, Nov 4 · 7:51 PM ET
Our play
How our line is built
each step, from an even game to our lineSpread
Even game
0.0
South Dakotarated 8.1 below average
−8.1
N Kentuckyrated 4.3 below average
+4.3
Home court
+4.6
Our line
SDAK −0.8
◂ N Kentucky sideSouth Dakota side ▸
The spread is seen from the home side: a plus moves it toward South Dakota. Our total joins once both teams have played 3 games.
Pace & total
possessions per 40 minutesTempo, possessions per 40 minutes
Projected possessions: 74.6, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw 2025-26 season pace, N Kentucky is the faster team (73.5, #84 of 365) and South Dakota the slower (71.4, #36). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (weights 0.80 vs 0.66).
Projected possessions
74.6
per team, 40 min
Market total
162.5
Market close · open 158.0
Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent
72.9#43
N Kentucky
72.3#72
South Dakota
How this game plays
points this game from the four factors, vs an average D-I matchupOur line
SDAK −0.8
Four factors −4.3 · not in these stats +5.1
From the four factors
South Dakota has the ball+2.0
N Kentucky has the ball+6.3
South Dakota has the ball
✓Takes care of the ballTO% 16.6% #172 · NKU forces 9.5% #271 · ~9 turnovers+6.1
✗Tough shooting lookeFG% 49.9% #239 · NKU allows 44.3% #78−3.6
✗Few second chancesOR% 28.7% #242 · NKU allows 30.4% #138−1.0
✓Gets to the lineFTR 45.2% #4 · NKU allows 34.3% #124 · FT 74.2% #123+0.6
N Kentucky has the ball
✓Shoots it welleFG% 54.0% #101 · SDAK allows 54.5% #318+4.5
✓Gets to the lineFTR 66.0% #12 · SDAK allows 31.0% #83 · FT 90.9% #8+2.4
✗Few second chancesOR% 26.9% #188 · SDAK allows 30.3% #172−1.6
✓Takes care of the ballTO% 19.0% #161 · SDAK forces 15.9% #227 · ~13 turnovers+1.1
Shot diet
Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot · 2025-26 numbersN Kentuckyoffense vsSouth Dakotadefense
Share of shots by zone
N Kentucky shoots
36.0
10.0
12.0
42.0
South Dakota allows
48.5
6.5
14.9
30.1
D-I average
38.2
7.5
13.3
41.0
FG% by zone
| Zone | D-I avg | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Rim | 77.8%#34 | 61.5%#286 | 58.8% |
| Short 2 (≤9 ft) | 80.0%#15 | 44.8%#290 | 36.5% |
| Mid 2 (10 ft+) | 50.0%#44 | 40.2%#252 | 35.7% |
| Three | 19.0%#253 | 34.5%#219 | 32.4% |
South Dakotaoffense vsN Kentuckydefense
Share of shots by zone
South Dakota shoots
44.5
4.7
14.6
36.2
N Kentucky allows
40.3
4.5
11.9
43.3
D-I average
38.2
7.5
13.3
41.0
FG% by zone
| Zone | D-I avg | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Rim | 57.5%#212 | 55.6%#115 | 58.8% |
| Short 2 (≤9 ft) | 32.4%#324 | 0.0%#1 | 36.5% |
| Mid 2 (10 ft+) | 36.8%#236 | 25.0%#80 | 35.7% |
| Three | 32.3%#264 | 26.7%#83 | 32.4% |
RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three
Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).
Shot volume
Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line · 2025-26 numbersN Kentucky
+0.2extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#136 of 365
Off reb %
26.9%
#188
Def reb %
69.6%
#138
Turnover %
19.0%
#161
Forced TO %
9.5%
#271
FT rate
66.0%
#12
FT allowed
34.3%
#124
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding−1.6
Defensive rebounding+0.4
Ball security−0.3
Forcing turnovers−6.6
Foul shots drawn+7.6
Foul shots allowed+0.7
South Dakota
+2.8extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#60 of 365
Off reb %
28.7%
#242
Def reb %
69.7%
#172
Turnover %
16.6%
#172
Forced TO %
15.9%
#227
FT rate
45.2%
#4
FT allowed
31.0%
#83
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding−0.6
Defensive rebounding+0.1
Ball security+0.1
Forcing turnovers−0.6
Foul shots drawn+2.6
Foul shots allowed+1.1
South Dakota has more extra scoring chances per game: +2.8 (#60 of 365) to N Kentucky’s +0.2 (#136).
Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).
Rotation
N Kentucky2026-27 numbers through Fri, Nov 6
| # | Player | Pos | Cl | Ht | GP-GS | MPG | PPG | RPG | APG | TOV | eFG% | 3P% | 3PA/g | FT% | Usage |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | G | Sr | 6'3" | 3-3 | 36.0 | 17.3 | 1.0 | 7.3 | 4.0 | 55.9% | 18.2% | 3.7 | 77.8% | 26.3% | |
| 0 | G | Fr | 6'2" | 3-3 | 32.3 | 23.0 | 4.3 | 1.7 | 3.3 | 56.7% | 38.9% | 6.0 | 94.7% | 34.4% | |
| 13 | F | Sr | 6'8" | 3-3 | 31.7 | 19.0 | 7.0 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 71.2% | 50.0% | 0.7 | 66.7% | 24.4% | |
| 9 | G | So | 6'6" | 3-3 | 27.0 | 11.7 | 4.0 | 0.7 | 2.7 | 48.3% | 46.2% | 4.3 | 100.0% | 25.8% | |
| 10 | F | Jr | 6'6" | 3-0 | 19.0 | 4.7 | 3.7 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 80.0% | — | 0.0 | 75.0% | 8.9% | |
| 8 | G | Fr | 6'5" | 3-0 | 18.3 | 3.3 | 2.3 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 25.0% | 18.2% | 3.7 | 100.0% | 16.1% | |
| 7 | F | Jr | 6'8" | 3-3 | 17.7 | 2.7 | 3.3 | 0.7 | 1.3 | 50.0% | — | 0.0 | 100.0% | 9.7% | |
| 1 | F | So | 6'7" | 3-0 | 13.7 | 1.7 | 3.0 | 0.3 | 0.7 | 35.7% | 50.0% | 0.7 | — | 11.2% | |
| 17 | F | So | 6'9" | 2-0 | 3.5 | 0.0 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | — | — | 0.0 | — | 7.5% | |
| 22 | G | So | 6'4" | 2-0 | 2.5 | 1.5 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.5 | 75.0% | 50.0% | 1.0 | — | 30.2% | |
| 4 | G | Sr | 6'4" | 1-0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | 0.0% |
Trends
Results against the closing spread and total, last ten games, entering this gameN Kentucky
Against the spread
Season
1-0
Home
0-0
Road
0-0
Last 10
1-0
avg cover +12.0
Covered the last game
Over / under
Season
1-0
Home
0-0
Road
0-0
Last 10
1-0
avg vs total +10.0
Over in the last game
Last 10 games, newest first
| Date | Opponent | Site | Result | Total | PPP for | PPP vs | Pace | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 2 | UTEP | N | W 84–76 | +4.0 | W+12.0 | 150.0 | O160 | 114.2 | 103.3 | 73.5 |
| Mar 9 | Wright St | N | L 90–103 | +1.0 | L−12.0 | 158.0 | O193 | 114.7 | 131.3 | 78.5 |
| Mar 8 | Green Bay | N | W 96–76 | −4.0 | W+16.0 | 147.5 | O172 | 145.5 | 115.2 | 66.0 |
| Mar 4 | Oakland | A | W 85–84 | +2.0 | W+3.0 | 162.5 | O169 | 116.5 | 115.1 | 73.0 |
| Feb 28 | Wright St | H | L 91–92 | −3.0 | L−4.0 | 152.5 | O183 | 130.0 | 131.4 | 70.0 |
| Feb 25 | Cleveland St | A | W 81–70 | −8.0 | W+3.0 | 165.5 | U151 | 112.2 | 97.0 | 72.2 |
| Feb 22 | Youngstown St | A | L 58–64 | +2.0 | L−4.0 | 152.5 | U122 | 78.4 | 86.5 | 73.9 |
| Feb 18 | Purdue FW | H | W 87–71 | −6.0 | W+10.0 | 154.0 | O158 | 122.1 | 99.7 | 71.2 |
| Feb 12 | IU Indy | A | W 84–81 | −6.0 | L−3.0 | 164.5 | O165 | 118.8 | 114.6 | 70.7 |
| Feb 7 | Milwaukee | H | W 67–62 | −7.0 | L−2.0 | 156.5 | U129 | 107.1 | 99.1 | 62.6 |
South Dakota
Against the spread
Season
16-13
Home
9-5
Road
6-7
Last 10
6-4
avg cover +1.9
Missed the spread in the last gameCovered 2 of 4 as a favoriteCovered 4 of 6 as an underdog
Over / under
Season
12-17
Home
6-8
Road
6-7
Last 10
3-7
avg vs total −6.0
Under 2 straightOver in 1 of 4 as a favoriteOver in 2 of 6 as an underdog
Last 10 games, newest first
| Date | Opponent | Site | Result | Total | PPP for | PPP vs | Pace | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 2 | Mount Marty Lancers | H | W 95–57 | — | — | — | — | 125.7 | 75.4 | 75.6 |
| Mar 6 | Omaha | N | L 62–76 | +2.0 | L−12.0 | 151.5 | U138 | 95.8 | 117.4 | 64.7 |
| Feb 28 | S Dakota St | H | W 75–70 | +3.0 | W+8.0 | 151.0 | U145 | 108.0 | 100.8 | 69.4 |
| Feb 25 | Omaha | H | W 89–72 | +1.5 | W+18.5 | 153.5 | O161 | 121.5 | 98.3 | 73.3 |
| Feb 21 | Oral Roberts | A | L 62–67 | −1.0 | L−6.0 | 151.5 | U129 | 85.4 | 92.2 | 72.6 |
| Feb 19 | Denver | A | L 70–90 | +6.0 | L−14.0 | 162.5 | U160 | 107.3 | 137.9 | 65.3 |
| Feb 11 | North Dakota | H | L 71–72 | −1.5 | L−2.5 | 156.5 | U143 | 106.2 | 107.7 | 66.8 |
| Feb 7 | S Dakota St | A | W 68–67 | +11.5 | W+12.5 | 157.5 | U135 | 97.6 | 96.1 | 69.7 |
| Feb 4 | Kansas City | A | W 82–75 OT | −2.0 | W+5.0 | 156.0 | O157 | 102.0 | 93.3 | 80.4 |
| Jan 31 | N Dakota St | H | L 84–89 OT | +9.0 | W+4.0 | 152.5 | O173 | 113.4 | 120.1 | 74.1 |
Records vs the closing line describe the past; ten games is a small sample.
Team comparison
national rank toned left for away, right for homeN KentuckySouth Dakota
Efficiency
107.3
102.9
106.2
109.7
72.9
72.3
-6.6
—
Shooting
54.0%
49.9%
72.4%
50.7%
19.0%
32.3%
90.9%
74.2%
66.0%
45.2%
Ball control & glass
19.0%
16.6%
9.5%
15.9%
26.9%
28.7%
30.4%
30.3%
8.2%
9.9%
3.4%
9.4%
Style
42.0%
35.9%
45.2%
43.6%
10.7%
9.8%
40.0%
46.1%
25.0%
31.4%
Roster
2.60
3.54
6'5.3"
6'4.8"
7.9%
21.4%
Offseason
roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model inputN Kentucky
Returning minutes: 23.7%Returning production: 15.8%
Lost
- Dan Gherezgher 29.5 mpg, 15.9 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- LJ Wells 29.4 mpg, 14.5 ppg · transferred to Louisville
- Donovan Oday 29.0 mpg, 18.6 ppg · transferred to Troy
- Tae Dozier 28.9 mpg, 8.6 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Kael Robinson 23.9 mpg, 13.1 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Shawn Nelson 9.1 mpg, 2.3 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
Added
- Noah Pagotto from East Texas A&M · 26.1 mpg, 10.4 ppg last season
- Will Shortt from Niagara · 19.5 mpg, 6.5 ppg last season
- Eric Acker from La Salle · 15.4 mpg, 4.8 ppg last season
- B.J. Davis-Ray from SMU · 6.7 mpg, 1.2 ppg last season
- Juanma Ruiz no D1 minutes last season
- Patrick Otto Mae no D1 minutes last season
Returns 24% of last season's minutes; lost 4 of its top 5 (2 transferred). Teams returning under 40% of last season's minutes have historically fallen about 0.8 points of AdjEM (n=716 team-seasons, 2022-2026).
South Dakota
Returning minutes: 21.4%Returning production: 15.6%
Lost
- Jordan Crawford 31.2 mpg, 14.4 ppg · transferred to Missouri
- Uzziah Buntyn 29.4 mpg, 11.7 ppg · transferred to N Illinois
- Cameron Fens 25.3 mpg, 14.4 ppg · transferred to North Carolina
- Isaac Bruns 19.3 mpg, 13.0 ppg · transferred to USC
- Silas Bennion 14.4 mpg, 2.4 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Evan Anderson 13.1 mpg, 2.3 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
Added
- Jahni Summers from Sacramento St · 25.8 mpg, 9.9 ppg last season
- Melo Sanchez from C Connecticut · 23.9 mpg, 9.2 ppg last season
- Kajus Kublickas from Pacific · 20.2 mpg, 5.6 ppg last season
- Stef van Bussel from Duquesne · 3.0 mpg, 0.7 ppg last season
- Cade Kelderman from Iowa State · 1.8 mpg, 0.4 ppg last season
- Josh Townley-Thomas from Creighton · 0.1 mpg, 0.2 ppg last season
Returns 21% of last season's minutes; lost 4 of its top 5 (4 transferred). Teams returning under 40% of last season's minutes have historically fallen about 0.8 points of AdjEM (n=716 team-seasons, 2022-2026).
Line history
Market line, home spread or game totalLines by book
| Book | Spread (home) open → now | Total open → now | ML home | ML away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | +1.5→+2.5-115 | 159.5→163.5o-110 u-110 | +114 | -135 |
| FanDuel | +1.5→+2.5-110 | 157.5→163.5o-110 u-110 | +118 | -142 |
| BetMGM | +2.5-115 | 159.5→163.5o-110 u-110 | +115 | -140 |
| BetRivers | +1.5→+2.5-118 | 159.5→163.5o-114 u-108 | +117 | -148 |
| Caesars | +1.5→+2-110 | 159→163.5o-110 u-110 | +115 | -135 |
| Fanatics | +1→+2.5-115 | 158.5→163.5o-110 u-110 | +110 | -130 |
| BetOnline | +1→+2-108 | 157→163o-115 u-105 | +112 | -132 |
| Bovada | +2.5→+2-110 | 160→163.5o-110 u-110 | +115 | -135 |
| theScore Bet | +2.5-110 | 159.5→163.5o-115 u-105 | +120 | -140 |
| Hard Rock | +1.5+100 | 159.5→163.5o-115 u-105 | +115 | -145 |
| Kalshi | +2.5-104 | 160.5→163.5o-104 u+100 | +133 | -138 |
| Polymarket | — | — | +127 | -133 |
| Novig | +1.5→+2.5-104 | 159.5→— | +127 | -133 |
DraftKings
FanDuel
BetMGM
BetRivers
Caesars
Fanatics
BetOnline
Bovada
theScore Bet
Hard Rock
Kalshi
Polymarket
Novigopen = first-sighted line for this event · now = latest capture
Head-to-head
this season and lastNo meetings the last two seasons.
More games on Wed, Nov 4
- FDU at Butler · 7:00 PM ET
- Longwood at Saint Joseph's · 7:00 PM ET
- MD Eastern at High Point · 7:00 PM ET
- CSU Northridge at Wichita St · 7:30 PM ET
- SE Louisiana at Auburn · 8:00 PM ET
- Radford at California · 9:00 PM ET
- N Dakota St at Saint Mary's · 10:00 PM ET
- Milwaukee at Santa Clara · 10:00 PM ET
- Queens at LMU · 10:00 PM ET
The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — the market spread and total (the median across books when no market line is up). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, from our line: the same view our bets are made from.
What these numbers mean: line shopping.