CBB Matchups

Every D1 game with tempo-free ratings, four factors and market lines, one place.

College basketball is being built for the 2026-27 season (tip-off Nov 3). What's here fills in as games are played.

Non-conferenceQubein Center, High Point, NC

MD Eastern

Efficiency #345

2025-26: 9-23 · 5-10 conf

High Point

Efficiency #50

2025-26: 31-5 · 18-1 conf

Wed, Nov 4 · 7:00 PM ET

62.7

win 5%

Projected

81.3

win 95%

No line posted yet.

Model: HPU −18.6 · total 144.0 · ratings as of Sat, Oct 3

Preseason ratings start from 2025-26's final adjusted ratings, regressed toward the D1 average. The stats below are 2025-26's too; both update once 2026-27 games are played.

How the projection is built

each step, from an average D-I game to this one

Projected total

Average D-I game

148.2

PaceAdjusted tempo: High Point 70.1, MD Eastern 65.7 → 67.4 possessions

−2.0

High Point offense vs MD Eastern defense

+6.3

MD Eastern offense vs High Point defense

−8.5

Projected total

144.0

Axis starts at 140 pointsPoints added or removed at each step

Projected margin

Even game

0.0

High Point offense vs MD Eastern defense

+6.3

MD Eastern offense vs High Point defense

+8.5

Home court+2.9 points per 100 possessions to the home offense, −2.9 to the visitors

+3.9

High Point by 18.6

18.6

MD Eastern side ◂▸ High Point side

Steps are rounded to one decimal, so they can differ from the total by 0.1: the margin steps add to +18.7 against +18.6. The margin is the same build seen from the home side; positive numbers help High Point.

Pace & total

possessions per 40 minutes

Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes

Projected possessions: 67.4, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw 2025-26 season pace, High Point is the faster team (71.2, #45 of 365) and MD Eastern the slower (64.4, #343). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (study weights 0.80 vs 0.66).

Projected possessions

67.4

per team, 40 min

Projected total

144.0

model

Projected team totals

62.7 / 81.3

MD Eastern / High Point

Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent

65.7#352

MD Eastern

70.1#43

High Point

How this game plays

what the study found each side's numbers actually do when these two teams meet

AdvantageMD Eastern

Where MD Eastern struggles: ball control

MD Eastern turns it over on 23.8% of possessions (#365); High Point forces turnovers on 21.3% of opponent possessions (#8). Expect about 23.6%, 6.9 points above an average D1 matchup — worth roughly -8.4 points per 100 possessions.

DefenseHigh Point

High Point's ball-hawking

High Point ranks #2 nationally in steal rate — one of the few defensive numbers that travels. Expect about 14.2% of MD Eastern's possessions to end in a steal against this defense.

Pace

Tempo tug-of-war

High Point averages 71.2 possessions per 40, MD Eastern 64.4. Slower teams pull the pace toward themselves more than fast teams push it (0.80 vs 0.66 in five seasons of games), so expect about 67 — more possessions mean more points in the total and more chances for the better team to separate.

AdvantageHigh Point

Where High Point scores: shooting

High Point shoots an effective 54.5% (#51); MD Eastern allows 50.7% (#142). Expect about 52.9%, 1.6 points above an average D1 matchup — worth roughly +2.3 points per 100 possessions.

Watch for noise

3-point caution

A notable season 3-point number here (MD Eastern) is close to a coin flip going forward — the study's model of next-game 3P% barely beats guessing the D1 average. Shot volume is what actually carries: expect MD Eastern at about 35.4% of its shots from three, High Point about 42.9%.

TurnoversHigh Point

High Point protects the ball

Projected turnover rate of 15.2% is worth roughly +1.9 points per 100 possessions for High Point's offense.

MD Eastern has the ball

OffenseHigh Point allowsvs D1 avg

47.8% #319

50.5% #126

-3.5 pt/100

23.8% #365

21.3% #8

-8.4 pt/100

32.4% #112

31.1% #207

+1.0 pt/100

29.5% #321

35.5% #199

-0.3 pt/100

71.5% #224

—

-0.1 pt/100

MD Eastern net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: -11.3 pts/100

High Point has the ball

OffenseMD Eastern allowsvs D1 avg

54.5% #51

50.7% #142

+2.3 pt/100

12.8% #5

17.9% #102

+1.9 pt/100

31.8% #131

33.6% #311

+1.6 pt/100

40.8% #50

43.0% #340

+0.9 pt/100

74.3% #112

—

+0.2 pt/100

High Point net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: +6.8 pts/100

Shot diet

Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot · 2025-26 numbers

MD Easternoffense vsHigh Pointdefense

Share of shots by zone

MD Eastern shoots

40.3

4.5

20.7

34.5

High Point allows

41.2

5.0

13.1

40.8

D-I average

38.5

6.4

15.8

39.3

FG% by zone

Zone			D-I avg
Rim	55.9%#277	57.7%#138	58.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)	36.4%#259	40.5%#198	39.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)	39.3%#138	35.3%#83	38.0%
Three	29.0%#354	32.6%#97	33.7%

High Pointoffense vsMD Easterndefense

Share of shots by zone

High Point shoots

44.7

4.2

7.4

43.7

MD Eastern allows

40.3

3.1

17.9

38.7

D-I average

38.5

6.4

15.8

39.3

FG% by zone

Zone			D-I avg
Rim	63.0%#50	58.3%#155	58.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)	33.8%#308	35.6%#74	39.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)	33.6%#320	33.2%#32	38.0%
Three	34.2%#161	33.5%#156	33.7%

RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three

Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).

Shot volume

Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line · 2025-26 numbers

MD Eastern

−7.8extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#361 of 365

Off reb %

32.4%

#112

Def reb %

66.4%

#311

Turnover %

23.8%

#365

Forced TO %

17.9%

#102

FT rate

29.5%

#321

FT allowed

43.0%

#340

Where the chances come from (per game)

Offensive rebounding+0.6

Defensive rebounding−1.0

Ball security−4.8

Forcing turnovers+0.8

Foul shots drawn−1.4

Foul shots allowed−2.0

High Point

+7.5extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#4 of 365

Off reb %

31.8%

#131

Def reb %

68.9%

#207

Turnover %

12.8%

Forced TO %

21.3%

FT rate

40.8%

#50

FT allowed

35.5%

#199

Where the chances come from (per game)

Offensive rebounding+0.5

Defensive rebounding−0.1

Ball security+2.7

Forcing turnovers+3.1

Foul shots drawn+1.5

Foul shots allowed−0.1

High Point has more extra scoring chances per game: +7.5 (#4 of 365) to MD Eastern’s −7.8 (#361).

Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).

Rotation

MD Eastern2025-26 numbers

ESPN hasn't posted MD Eastern's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
4	Michael Teal	G	Sr	6'1"	32-32	26.2	5.8	2.1	3.5	2.2	43.8%	17.1%	1.3	76.1%	18.8%
0	Jaden Cooper	G	Sr	6'3"	32-31	26.0	8.0	3.7	1.7	1.2	49.5%	33.6%	3.6	83.7%	20.5%
5	Dorion Staples	F	Sr	6'8"	32-24	24.3	9.3	3.0	1.8	1.2	52.4%	33.8%	4.3	78.8%	24.4%
1	Zion Obanla	G	Sr	6'8"	32-15	22.1	10.8	5.9	0.9	1.6	60.6%	20.0%	0.2	70.4%	28.1%
12	Justin Monden	G	Jr	6'0"	32-1	20.8	6.0	1.2	1.6	1.5	45.6%	27.0%	2.3	72.2%	23.1%
14	Joseph Locandro	F	Sr	6'9"	32-22	19.3	9.3	3.3	0.5	1.6	56.9%	40.7%	2.8	71.8%	30.7%
24	Levi Beckwith	SF	Fr	6'7"	26-24	17.3	2.0	2.9	0.6	0.8	27.0%	11.8%	1.3	61.1%	14.2%
35	Christopher Flippin	PF	Sr	6'8"	30-1	13.2	5.0	2.8	0.7	1.1	47.0%	—	0.0	55.1%	29.2%
3	Trey Brown	PG	Jr	6'7"	27-0	13.8	3.3	2.4	1.3	1.5	41.0%	31.0%	1.1	66.7%	23.4%
31	Maurio Hanson Jr.	F	So	6'7"	23-0	8.8	2.8	1.7	0.5	0.7	56.8%	40.0%	0.2	70.0%	20.8%
22	Maurice Vassel	F	So	6'9"	25-10	7.6	2.0	1.2	0.1	0.8	58.1%	—	0.0	70.0%	18.9%
23	Trey Hall	F	Sr	6'9"	16-0	11.4	1.8	1.4	0.4	1.2	39.2%	20.0%	1.6	—	18.5%
2	Jaden Johnson	PG	Jr	5'10"	22-0	6.9	1.0	0.7	0.7	0.7	26.7%	13.3%	0.7	100.0%	18.8%
11	Javoy Thompson	G	Jr	6'7"	17-0	8.6	1.7	0.6	0.3	0.4	41.4%	0.0%	0.2	71.4%	15.9%
10	Devin Thomas	G	Fr	6'0"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

High Point2025-26 numbers

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
3	Rob Martin	G	Sr	5'10"	35-35	27.3	16.0	2.0	3.9	1.6	48.2%	30.2%	4.5	83.9%	32.6%
8	Owen Aquino	F	Sr	6'8"	36-36	26.5	9.3	5.8	2.4	1.8	57.9%	44.4%	1.0	65.3%	19.8%
9	Conrad Martinez	G	Jr	6'0"	36-1	21.8	8.8	1.4	3.3	1.1	54.0%	32.8%	3.3	84.4%	21.8%
15	Braden Hausen	F	So	6'7"	36-25	20.3	6.7	2.9	1.2	0.4	54.2%	35.8%	4.4	79.2%	17.7%
12	Scotty Washington	G	Sr	6'4"	36-29	18.8	8.2	2.8	0.9	0.4	57.3%	37.9%	2.9	77.3%	21.0%
11	Cam'Ron Fletcher	F	Sr	6'7"	27-11	22.2	13.2	7.1	0.9	1.1	61.1%	36.2%	3.5	71.6%	28.8%
99	Chase Johnston	G	Sr	6'3"	33-11	13.8	6.6	0.8	0.5	0.2	71.2%	48.6%	4.4	100.0%	19.3%
2	Vincent Brady II	G	Sr	6'3"	25-0	16.4	5.2	1.9	1.6	0.6	44.7%	24.2%	2.6	80.6%	19.7%
24	Youssouf Singare	F	Jr	6'10"	32-0	7.7	1.3	1.9	0.1	0.4	68.2%	—	0.0	55.0%	9.9%
7	Caden Miller	F	Fr	6'9"	25-0	7.4	2.9	2.2	0.4	0.2	74.4%	—	0.0	28.6%	18.6%
4	Babacar Diallo	G	Sr	6'6"	16-0	7.9	2.4	0.8	0.6	0.4	72.7%	0.0%	0.1	43.8%	15.2%
19	Josh Ibukunoluwa	F	So	6'10"	16-0	6.5	2.8	2.0	0.3	0.0	63.0%	—	0.0	68.8%	18.1%
35	David Fonville	G	So	6'3"	11-0	3.1	0.5	0.3	0.2	0.0	20.0%	0.0%	0.3	100.0%	16.6%
14	Birgir Irving	F	So	6'7"	10-0	1.8	0.3	0.1	0.1	0.2	0.0%	0.0%	0.4	42.9%	36.4%
10	Dorian Grosber	G	Fr	6'7"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—
23	Kasen Krueger	G	Fr	6'1"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—
16	Liam Carney	G	Jr	6'6"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—
33	Mavrick Miller	G	So	6'4"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

MD Eastern2025-26 numbers

ESPN hasn't posted MD Eastern's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
4	Michael Teal	G	Sr	6'1"	32-32	26.2	5.8	2.1	3.5	2.2	43.8%	17.1%	1.3	76.1%	18.8%
0	Jaden Cooper	G	Sr	6'3"	32-31	26.0	8.0	3.7	1.7	1.2	49.5%	33.6%	3.6	83.7%	20.5%
5	Dorion Staples	F	Sr	6'8"	32-24	24.3	9.3	3.0	1.8	1.2	52.4%	33.8%	4.3	78.8%	24.4%
1	Zion Obanla	G	Sr	6'8"	32-15	22.1	10.8	5.9	0.9	1.6	60.6%	20.0%	0.2	70.4%	28.1%
12	Justin Monden	G	Jr	6'0"	32-1	20.8	6.0	1.2	1.6	1.5	45.6%	27.0%	2.3	72.2%	23.1%
14	Joseph Locandro	F	Sr	6'9"	32-22	19.3	9.3	3.3	0.5	1.6	56.9%	40.7%	2.8	71.8%	30.7%
24	Levi Beckwith	SF	Fr	6'7"	26-24	17.3	2.0	2.9	0.6	0.8	27.0%	11.8%	1.3	61.1%	14.2%
35	Christopher Flippin	PF	Sr	6'8"	30-1	13.2	5.0	2.8	0.7	1.1	47.0%	—	0.0	55.1%	29.2%
3	Trey Brown	PG	Jr	6'7"	27-0	13.8	3.3	2.4	1.3	1.5	41.0%	31.0%	1.1	66.7%	23.4%
31	Maurio Hanson Jr.	F	So	6'7"	23-0	8.8	2.8	1.7	0.5	0.7	56.8%	40.0%	0.2	70.0%	20.8%
22	Maurice Vassel	F	So	6'9"	25-10	7.6	2.0	1.2	0.1	0.8	58.1%	—	0.0	70.0%	18.9%
23	Trey Hall	F	Sr	6'9"	16-0	11.4	1.8	1.4	0.4	1.2	39.2%	20.0%	1.6	—	18.5%
2	Jaden Johnson	PG	Jr	5'10"	22-0	6.9	1.0	0.7	0.7	0.7	26.7%	13.3%	0.7	100.0%	18.8%
11	Javoy Thompson	G	Jr	6'7"	17-0	8.6	1.7	0.6	0.3	0.4	41.4%	0.0%	0.2	71.4%	15.9%
10	Devin Thomas	G	Fr	6'0"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Trends

Last 10 games of 2025-26

MD Eastern

Against the spread

Season

14-16

Home

3-5

Road

10-10

Last 10

2-8

avg cover −6.2

Missed the spread 3 straightCovered 1 of 7 as a favorite

Over / under

Season

13-17

Home

3-5

Road

9-11

Last 10

4-6

avg vs total +1.6

Over in the last gameOver in 4 of 7 as a favorite

Last 10 games, newest first

Date	Opponent	Site	Result			Total		PPP for	PPP vs	Pace
Mar 12	NC CentralAdjEM #346	N	L 76–83 OT	−1.0	L−8.0	132.0	O159	109.5	119.6	69.4
Mar 5	Delaware StAdjEM #358	H	L 56–57	−5.5	L−6.5	125.0	U113	94.2	95.9	59.4
Mar 2	NC CentralAdjEM #346	H	L 73–77	−2.5	L−6.5	133.5	O150	106.9	112.8	68.3
Feb 28	SC StateAdjEM #357	H	W 69–57	−6.0	W+6.0	132.5	U126	104.0	85.9	66.3
Feb 21	Coppin StAdjEM #364	A	L 65–71 OT	−3.0	L−9.0	127.0	O136	88.3	96.4	73.6
Feb 16	Norfolk StAdjEM #305	H	L 66–70	+2.0	L−2.0	136.5	U136	111.7	118.5	59.1
Feb 14	HowardAdjEM #160	A	L 53–79	+11.0	L−15.0	133.0	U132	82.4	122.8	64.3
Feb 7	Morgan StAdjEM #349	A	L 71–79	−1.5	L−9.5	141.0	O150	106.1	118.0	66.9
Feb 4	SC StateAdjEM #357	A	L 54–63	−4.5	L−13.5	134.5	U117	83.7	97.7	64.5
Feb 2	NC CentralAdjEM #346	A	L 63–65	+4.0	W+2.0	135.5	U128	101.7	104.9	61.9

High Point

Against the spread

Season

17-16

Home

8-7

Road

4-5

Last 10

5-5

avg cover +1.9

Covered 3 straightCovered 3 of 8 as a favoriteCovered 4 of 8 with a line of 10+

Over / under

Season

22-11

Home

8-7

Road

7-2

Last 10

7-3

avg vs total +3.4

Over 3 straightOver in 5 of 8 as a favoriteOver in 5 of 8 with a line of 10+

Last 10 games, newest first

Date	Opponent	Site	Result			Total		PPP for	PPP vs	Pace
Mar 21	#4ArkansasAdjEM #19	N	L 88–94	+12.0	W+6.0	170.5	O182	113.8	121.5	77.4
Mar 19	#5WisconsinAdjEM #28	N	W 83–82	+10.0	W+11.0	161.5	O165	113.7	112.3	73.0
Mar 8	WinthropAdjEM #116	N	W 91–76	−7.0	W+8.0	157.5	O167	116.0	96.9	78.5
Mar 7	UNC AshevilleAdjEM #226	N	W 75–71	−13.0	L−9.0	147.5	U146	110.5	104.6	67.9
Mar 6	Gardner-WebbAdjEM #363	N	W 81–59	−27.5	L−5.5	156.5	U140	115.3	84.0	70.3
Feb 26	PresbyterianAdjEM #252	A	W 79–73	−11.5	L−5.5	151.5	O152	115.6	106.8	68.3
Feb 21	WinthropAdjEM #116	H	W 89–87	−9.5	L−7.5	166.5	O176	120.5	117.8	73.9
Feb 19	UNC AshevilleAdjEM #226	H	W 74–48	−15.0	W+11.0	152.0	U122	115.0	74.6	64.4
Feb 14	Gardner-WebbAdjEM #363	A	W 112–87	−25.5	L−0.5	162.0	O199	143.5	111.4	78.1
Feb 12	SC UpstateAdjEM #284	A	W 95–70	−14.0	W+11.0	154.5	O165	126.6	93.3	75.1

Records vs the closing line describe the past; ten games is a small sample.

Tale of the tape

national rank toned left for away, right for home

MD EasternHigh Point

Efficiency

98.6

115.4

110.9

105.8

65.7

70.1

—

Shooting

47.8%

54.5%

49.9%

57.0%

29.0%

34.2%

71.5%

74.3%

29.5%

40.8%

Ball control & glass

23.8%

12.8%

17.9%

21.3%

32.4%

31.8%

33.6%

31.1%

13.8%

6.8%

8.6%

10.7%

Style

33.5%

43.6%

46.3%

43.6%

10.1%

18.9%

56.5%

52.8%

42.2%

38.5%

Roster

3.47

6'5.4"

6'4.2"

—

86.6%

Offseason

roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model input

MD Eastern

Returning minutes: 100.0%Returning production: 100.0%

ESPN hasn't posted MD Eastern's roster for this season yet — no movement to show.

Returns 100% of last season's minutes. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026). (ESPN hasn't posted this season's roster yet -- this may still be last season's list.)

High Point

Returning minutes: 86.6%Returning production: 82.8%

Lost

Terry Anderson 26.9 mpg, 16.0 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet

Added

Kasen Krueger no D1 minutes last season
Mavrick Miller no D1 minutes last season
Dorian Grosber no D1 minutes last season
Liam Carney no D1 minutes last season

No incoming D1 transfers are listed on ESPN's roster yet — until they are, returning shares read high.

Returns 87% of last season's minutes; lost 1 of its top 5. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026).

Head-to-head

this season and last

No meetings the last two seasons.

The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — Pinnacle's spread and total (the median across books when Pinnacle has no line). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, built bottom-up from those same numbers: expected possessions times each side's opponent-adjusted points per possession, plus home court.

What these numbers mean: line shopping.