CBB Matchups

Every D1 game with tempo-free ratings, four factors and market lines, one place.

College basketball is being built for the 2026-27 season (tip-off Nov 3). What's here fills in as games are played.
Non-conferenceCharles Koch Arena, Wichita, KS
CSU Northridge
Efficiency #196
2025-26: 20-14 · 13-9 conf
@
Wichita St
Efficiency #60
2025-26: 24-12 · 14-6 conf
Wed, Nov 4 · 8:00 PM ET
71.8
win 18%
Projected
82.3
win 82%
No line posted yet.
Model: WICH −10.5 · total 154.1 · ratings as of Sat, Oct 3
Preseason ratings start from 2025-26's final adjusted ratings, regressed toward the D1 average. The stats below are 2025-26's too; both update once 2026-27 games are played.

How the projection is built

each step, from an average D-I game to this one
Projected total
Average D-I game
148.2
PaceAdjusted tempo: Wichita St 67.9, CSU Northridge 72.4 → 72.0 possessions
+7.9
Wichita St offense vs CSU Northridge defense
+2.2
CSU Northridge offense vs Wichita St defense
−4.2
Projected total
154.1
Axis starts at 140 pointsPoints added or removed at each step
Projected margin
Even game
0.0
Wichita St offense vs CSU Northridge defense
+2.2
CSU Northridge offense vs Wichita St defense
+4.2
Home court+2.9 points per 100 possessions to the home offense, −2.9 to the visitors
+4.1
Wichita St by 10.5
10.5
CSU Northridge side ◂▸ Wichita St side

Steps are rounded to one decimal, so they can differ from the total by 0.1. The margin is the same build seen from the home side; positive numbers help Wichita St.

Pace & total

possessions per 40 minutes
Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes

Projected possessions: 72.0, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw 2025-26 season pace, CSU Northridge is the faster team (75.3, #3 of 365) and Wichita St the slower (67.8, #211). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (study weights 0.80 vs 0.66).

Projected possessions
72.0
per team, 40 min
Projected total
154.1
model
Projected team totals
71.8 / 82.3
CSU Northridge / Wichita St
Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent
72.4#3
CSU Northridge
67.9#218
Wichita St

How this game plays

what the study found each side's numbers actually do when these two teams meet
Pace
Tempo tug-of-war
Wichita St averages 67.8 possessions per 40, CSU Northridge 75.3. Slower teams pull the pace toward themselves more than fast teams push it (0.80 vs 0.66 in five seasons of games), so expect about 73 — more possessions mean more points in the total and more chances for the better team to separate.
AdvantageCSU Northridge
Where CSU Northridge struggles: shooting
CSU Northridge shoots an effective 51.3% (#183); Wichita St allows 47.2% (#24). Expect about 49.2%, 2.1 points below an average D1 matchup — worth roughly -3.0 points per 100 possessions.
ClashCSU Northridge
Style match: 3-point volume
CSU Northridge rarely shoots threes (33.6% of its shots); Wichita St runs teams off the line (34.3% of shots allowed from three) (D1 average 39.5%). Expect about 31.4% — both habits push the same way.
AdvantageWichita St
Where Wichita St scores: the offensive glass
Wichita St rebounds 38.0% of its own misses (#8); CSU Northridge lets opponents grab 26.6% of their own misses (#26). Expect about 33.9%, 3.5 points above an average D1 matchup — worth roughly +2.1 points per 100 possessions.
Watch for noise
3-point caution
A notable season 3-point number here (Wichita St's defense) is close to a coin flip going forward — the study's model of next-game 3P% barely beats guessing the D1 average. Shot volume is what actually carries: expect CSU Northridge at about 31.4% of its shots from three, Wichita St about 40.9%.
TurnoversWichita St
Wichita St protects the ball
Projected turnover rate of 15.5% is worth roughly +1.5 points per 100 possessions for Wichita St's offense.
CSU Northridge has the ball
OffenseWichita St allowsvs D1 avg
51.3% #183
47.2% #24
-3.0 pt/100
17.5% #239
15.7% #235
+0.3 pt/100
31.9% #130
28.8% #93
+0.1 pt/100
34.2% #200
34.3% #158
-0.1 pt/100
66.8% #345
—
-0.5 pt/100
CSU Northridge net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: -3.1 pts/100
Wichita St has the ball
OffenseCSU Northridge allowsvs D1 avg
49.4% #274
51.6% #191
-1.3 pt/100
14.9% #60
16.4% #191
+1.5 pt/100
38.0% #8
26.6% #26
+2.1 pt/100
36.0% #149
34.3% #162
+0.0 pt/100
69.2% #291
—
-0.3 pt/100
Wichita St net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: +2.1 pts/100

Shot diet

Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot · 2025-26 numbers
CSU Northridgeoffense vsWichita Stdefense
Share of shots by zone
CSU Northridge shoots
Wichita St allows
D-I average
FG% by zone
ZoneD-I avg
Rim58.0%#19453.9%#3958.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)32.7%#31935.5%#7339.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)41.9%#6239.8%#23538.0%
Three32.4%#26031.5%#4433.7%
Wichita Stoffense vsCSU Northridgedefense
Share of shots by zone
Wichita St shoots
CSU Northridge allows
D-I average
FG% by zone
ZoneD-I avg
Rim55.4%#28858.4%#16258.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)39.9%#17737.4%#12239.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)38.4%#17440.2%#24838.0%
Three33.5%#19534.4%#21033.7%
RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three

Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).

Shot volume

Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line · 2025-26 numbers
CSU Northridge
+1.1extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#133 of 365
Off reb %
31.9%
#130
Def reb %
73.4%
#26
Turnover %
17.5%
#239
Forced TO %
16.4%
#191
FT rate
34.2%
#200
FT allowed
34.3%
#162
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding+0.5
Defensive rebounding+1.3
Ball security−0.5
Forcing turnovers−0.2
Foul shots drawn−0.2
Foul shots allowed+0.2
Wichita St
+4.1extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#34 of 365
Off reb %
38.0%
#8
Def reb %
71.2%
#93
Turnover %
14.9%
#60
Forced TO %
15.7%
#235
FT rate
36.0%
#149
FT allowed
34.3%
#158
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding+2.5
Defensive rebounding+0.6
Ball security+1.3
Forcing turnovers−0.7
Foul shots drawn+0.2
Foul shots allowed+0.2

Wichita St has more extra scoring chances per game: +4.1 (#34 of 365) to CSU Northridge’s +1.1 (#133).

Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).

Rotation

CSU Northridge2025-26 numbers
#PlayerPosClHtGP-GSMPGPPGRPGAPGTOVeFG%3P%3PA/gFT%UsageStatus
4Josiah DavisGSr6'3"34-3433.415.94.67.44.746.6%16.7%1.170.0%31.7%
2Larry Hughes IIGSr6'4"33-3331.617.72.90.91.453.3%39.5%7.886.0%28.0%
11Mahmoud FofanaFSr6'6"34-3429.511.07.91.51.163.2%20.0%0.160.5%17.4%
23Jordan BrinsonGSr6'2"33-118.33.52.81.60.550.0%34.9%1.985.0%10.9%
1Davius LouryFSo6'7"33-2216.94.92.20.80.842.4%29.4%3.164.7%19.6%
5James Evans Jr.GFr6'6"34-1015.26.01.91.20.844.6%33.0%2.658.8%25.1%
21Grady LewisFSr6'9"31-29.84.02.50.40.465.5%—0.038.9%19.6%
15Jai ChisolmGJr6'3"33-18.82.91.40.20.442.9%20.3%1.960.0%22.3%
13Aleks SzymczykCJr6'10"26-08.22.92.80.20.453.7%18.2%0.458.1%19.4%
24Greg GazarianGFr6'0"9-03.20.40.10.10.70.0%0.0%0.150.0%31.3%
20Robert ThibiantGSr6'2"8-02.10.90.10.00.331.8%14.3%0.9—39.3%
6Joseph BarrioGJr6'1"5-01.80.00.20.00.00.0%—0.0—5.7%
3Jalen BarbeeGSr6'6"0-00.00.00.00.00.0——0.0——
8Max RehlGFr6'6"0-00.00.00.00.00.0——0.0——
14Omer DahanGFr6'0"0-00.00.00.00.00.0——0.0——
—Quinton WebbGJr6'6"0-00.00.00.00.00.0——0.0——
Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Tale of the tape

national rank toned left for away, right for home
CSU NorthridgeWichita St
Efficiency
107.8
111.1
108.9
103.4
72.4
67.9
—
—
Shooting
51.3%
49.4%
52.6%
49.0%
32.4%
33.5%
66.8%
69.2%
34.2%
36.0%
Ball control & glass
17.5%
14.9%
16.4%
15.7%
31.9%
38.0%
26.6%
28.8%
10.7%
8.7%
10.1%
8.3%
Style
33.6%
33.8%
50.4%
45.1%
14.8%
9.5%
56.6%
41.3%
26.5%
32.4%
Roster
3.43
3.21
6'4.8"
6'4.5"
83.8%
—

Offseason

roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model input
CSU Northridge
Returning minutes: 83.8%Returning production: 81.4%
Lost
  • Joshua O'Garro 32.5 mpg, 14.2 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
Added
  • Max Rehl no D1 minutes last season
  • Jalen Barbee no D1 minutes last season
  • Omer Dahan no D1 minutes last season
  • Quinton Webb no D1 minutes last season

No incoming D1 transfers are listed on ESPN's roster yet — until they are, returning shares read high.

Returns 84% of last season's minutes; lost 1 of its top 5. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026).

Wichita St
Returning minutes: 100.0%Returning production: 100.0%
ESPN hasn't posted Wichita St's roster for this season yet — no movement to show.

Returns 100% of last season's minutes. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026). (ESPN hasn't posted this season's roster yet -- this may still be last season's list.)

Head-to-head

this season and last
No meetings the last two seasons.

The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — Pinnacle's spread and total (the median across books when Pinnacle has no line). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, built bottom-up from those same numbers: expected possessions times each side's opponent-adjusted points per possession, plus home court.

What these numbers mean: line shopping.