CBB Matchups

Every D1 game with tempo-free ratings, four factors and market lines, one place.

College basketball is being built for the 2026-27 season (tip-off Nov 3). What's here fills in as games are played.

Non-conferenceUniversity Credit Union Pavilion, Moraga, CA

N Dakota St

Efficiency #90

2025-26: 27-8 · 17-2 conf

Saint Mary's

Efficiency #23

2025-26: 27-6 · 16-3 conf

Wed, Nov 4 · TBD

66.4

win 19%

Projected

76.5

win 81%

No line posted yet.

Model: SMC −10.1 · total 142.9 · ratings as of Sat, Oct 3

Preseason ratings start from 2025-26's final adjusted ratings, regressed toward the D1 average. The stats below are 2025-26's too; both update once 2026-27 games are played.

How the projection is built

each step, from an average D-I game to this one

Projected total

Average D-I game

148.2

PaceAdjusted tempo: Saint Mary's 66.7, N Dakota St 67.8 → 66.2 possessions

−4.5

Saint Mary's offense vs N Dakota St defense

+2.8

N Dakota St offense vs Saint Mary's defense

−3.6

Projected total

142.9

Axis starts at 140 pointsPoints added or removed at each step

Projected margin

Even game

0.0

Saint Mary's offense vs N Dakota St defense

+2.8

N Dakota St offense vs Saint Mary's defense

+3.6

Home court+2.9 points per 100 possessions to the home offense, −2.9 to the visitors

+3.8

Saint Mary's by 10.1

10.1

N Dakota St side ◂▸ Saint Mary's side

Steps are rounded to one decimal, so they can differ from the total by 0.1: the margin steps add to +10.2 against +10.1. The margin is the same build seen from the home side; positive numbers help Saint Mary's.

Pace & total

possessions per 40 minutes

Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes

Projected possessions: 66.2, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw 2025-26 season pace, N Dakota St is the faster team (68.1, #196 of 365) and Saint Mary's the slower (66.2, #288). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (study weights 0.80 vs 0.66).

Projected possessions

66.2

per team, 40 min

Projected total

142.9

model

Projected team totals

66.4 / 76.5

N Dakota St / Saint Mary's

Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent

67.8#225

N Dakota St

66.7#305

Saint Mary's

How this game plays

what the study found each side's numbers actually do when these two teams meet

AdvantageN Dakota St

Where N Dakota St scores: ball control

N Dakota St turns it over on 15.6% of possessions (#112); Saint Mary's forces turnovers on 15.2% of opponent possessions (#270). Expect about 15.1%, 1.6 points below an average D1 matchup — worth roughly +2.0 points per 100 possessions.

Watch for noise

3-point caution

A notable season 3-point number here (Saint Mary's, Saint Mary's's defense) is close to a coin flip going forward — the study's model of next-game 3P% barely beats guessing the D1 average. Shot volume is what actually carries: expect N Dakota St at about 40.5% of its shots from three, Saint Mary's about 40.0%.

AdvantageSaint Mary's

Where Saint Mary's scores: shooting

Saint Mary's shoots an effective 52.8% (#109); N Dakota St allows 52.0% (#215). Expect about 52.6%, 1.3 points above an average D1 matchup — worth roughly +1.8 points per 100 possessions.

ClashSaint Mary's

Strength vs strength: offensive rebounding

Saint Mary's (#11 in offensive rebounding) against N Dakota St (#15 in the same stat allowed) — both rank inside the national top 60. Expect about 33.0%. Historically Saint Mary's's own number has carried a bit more weight in that exchange (0.70 vs 0.49).

TurnoversSaint Mary's

Saint Mary's turns it over

Projected turnover rate of 18.0% is worth roughly -1.5 points per 100 possessions against Saint Mary's's offense.

N Dakota St has the ball

OffenseSaint Mary's allowsvs D1 avg

53.2% #92

46.8% #19

-1.6 pt/100

15.6% #112

15.2% #270

+2.0 pt/100

32.9% #89

23.9% #4

-0.9 pt/100

30.6% #289

25.7% #12

-1.0 pt/100

71.4% #227

—

-0.1 pt/100

N Dakota St net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: -1.5 pts/100

Saint Mary's has the ball

OffenseN Dakota St allowsvs D1 avg

52.8% #109

52.0% #215

+1.8 pt/100

16.8% #189

18.7% #65

-1.5 pt/100

37.5% #11

25.5% #15

+1.6 pt/100

35.5% #162

29.2% #46

-0.4 pt/100

80.3% #2

—

+0.7 pt/100

Saint Mary's net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: +2.2 pts/100

Shot diet

Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot · 2025-26 numbers

N Dakota Stoffense vsSaint Mary'sdefense

Share of shots by zone

N Dakota St shoots

36.1

8.0

13.0

43.0

Saint Mary's allows

36.6

7.7

18.7

37.0

D-I average

38.5

6.4

15.8

39.3

FG% by zone

Zone			D-I avg
Rim	60.2%#115	54.4%#47	58.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)	42.9%#105	46.4%#324	39.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)	39.5%#134	33.7%#43	38.0%
Three	35.4%#93	31.3%#40	33.7%

Saint Mary'soffense vsN Dakota Stdefense

Share of shots by zone

Saint Mary's shoots

37.5

7.8

17.6

37.0

N Dakota St allows

35.5

6.0

15.5

43.1

D-I average

38.5

6.4

15.8

39.3

FG% by zone

Zone			D-I avg
Rim	57.4%#215	60.0%#225	58.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)	42.2%#117	42.7%#241	39.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)	36.5%#253	38.2%#166	38.0%
Three	38.7%#7	33.9%#173	33.7%

RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three

Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).

Shot volume

Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line · 2025-26 numbers

N Dakota St

+5.0extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#24 of 365

Off reb %

32.9%

#89

Def reb %

74.5%

#15

Turnover %

15.6%

#112

Forced TO %

18.7%

#65

FT rate

30.6%

#289

FT allowed

29.2%

#46

Where the chances come from (per game)

Offensive rebounding+0.8

Defensive rebounding+1.6

Ball security+0.8

Forcing turnovers+1.3

Foul shots drawn−1.1

Foul shots allowed+1.5

Saint Mary's

+6.0extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#13 of 365

Off reb %

37.5%

#11

Def reb %

76.1%

Turnover %

16.8%

#189

Forced TO %

15.2%

#270

FT rate

35.5%

#162

FT allowed

25.7%

#12

Where the chances come from (per game)

Offensive rebounding+2.3

Defensive rebounding+2.2

Ball security0.0

Forcing turnovers−1.0

Foul shots drawn+0.1

Foul shots allowed+2.4

Saint Mary's has more extra scoring chances per game: +6.0 (#13 of 365) to N Dakota St’s +5.0 (#24).

Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).

Rotation

N Dakota St2025-26 numbers

ESPN hasn't posted N Dakota St's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
5	Andy Stefonowicz	G	So	6'2"	35-33	32.5	9.1	3.1	4.8	2.1	52.6%	37.7%	4.2	90.3%	18.0%
0	Trevian Carson	G	Jr	6'3"	35-34	31.6	11.9	6.5	2.9	1.6	54.9%	37.5%	3.4	80.3%	22.1%
1	Damari Wheeler-Thomas	G	Jr	6'0"	32-32	30.5	14.5	3.5	2.8	1.5	50.7%	38.3%	5.9	76.9%	27.7%
30	Markhi Strickland	G	Sr	6'6"	35-33	24.3	11.6	3.4	1.3	1.3	59.6%	0.0%	0.0	48.4%	27.0%
34	Noah Feddersen	F	Jr	6'10"	35-16	21.1	9.3	5.0	1.0	1.3	55.6%	29.3%	1.7	80.0%	24.1%
3	Tay Smith	G	Sr	6'2"	35-5	19.8	7.7	2.5	0.8	0.5	56.7%	39.1%	5.5	76.5%	21.2%
44	Treyson Anderson	F	So	6'9"	35-19	18.3	10.4	5.3	0.8	1.4	57.5%	35.8%	3.0	65.8%	32.6%
8	Emil Skytta	G	Jr	6'5"	26-0	12.1	3.7	1.8	0.7	0.3	58.6%	37.5%	0.3	40.0%	17.6%
2	Riley Massey	G	Fr	6'3"	32-1	8.6	1.4	1.0	0.5	0.3	37.0%	22.9%	1.1	71.4%	12.7%
7	Carson Smith	G	Fr	6'6"	24-2	9.9	3.0	1.3	0.2	0.3	42.4%	22.6%	1.3	91.7%	20.1%
11	Max Majerle	G	Jr	6'4"	18-0	5.5	1.0	0.9	0.5	0.4	29.5%	12.5%	0.4	100.0%	18.4%
22	Caleb Schoenrock	F	Fr	6'7"	8-0	2.3	0.3	0.5	0.1	0.1	33.3%	—	0.0	—	12.1%
13	Riley Saunders	G	Fr	5'11"	9-0	2.0	1.7	0.2	0.2	0.1	93.8%	62.5%	0.9	—	27.0%
14	Dom Clay	G	Fr	6'3"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Saint Mary's2025-26 numbers

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
7	Joshua Dent	G	So	6'3"	33-33	36.2	13.2	2.5	5.6	2.3	56.7%	40.4%	4.6	91.8%	21.7%
23	Paulius Murauskas	F	Jr	6'8"	33-32	32.2	18.4	7.6	2.1	1.8	52.5%	33.3%	3.3	84.0%	32.7%
11	Dillan Shaw	G	Fr	6'7"	33-22	27.5	7.5	5.4	1.5	1.0	55.7%	41.6%	3.8	69.7%	17.0%
0	Mikey Lewis	G	So	6'3"	33-33	26.8	13.9	2.7	2.1	1.4	48.6%	36.8%	5.6	88.2%	33.0%
45	Andrew McKeever	C	So	7'2"	33-10	23.1	8.2	9.2	1.8	1.7	50.0%	—	0.0	62.8%	24.8%
33	Liam Campbell	G	Fr	6'4"	33-0	14.7	4.9	1.8	0.5	0.5	63.7%	52.0%	1.5	80.0%	16.9%
8	Rory Hawke	G	Fr	6'5"	31-4	11.0	2.5	1.2	0.4	0.5	54.7%	22.2%	0.6	78.3%	14.3%
6	Mantas Juzenas	G	Fr	6'6"	26-1	5.8	2.1	1.4	0.3	0.3	66.2%	48.4%	1.2	55.6%	19.5%
2	Tony Duckett	G	So	6'4"	20-0	7.3	3.5	0.5	0.5	0.4	45.1%	30.8%	0.7	92.0%	29.4%
24	Kevin Gad	F	Jr	6'6"	7-7	10.1	1.4	1.3	0.7	0.1	45.5%	33.3%	0.9	—	10.0%
22	Cade Bennett	G	Jr	6'0"	8-0	4.5	1.0	1.0	0.5	0.1	60.0%	40.0%	0.6	50.0%	12.9%
14	Oliver Faubert	F	Fr	6'8"	11-0	1.9	0.2	0.0	0.0	0.1	33.3%	—	0.0	—	11.5%
32	Jazz Gardner	C	Jr	7'0"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—
42	Trent MacLean	F	Fr	6'8"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

N Dakota St2025-26 numbers

ESPN hasn't posted N Dakota St's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
5	Andy Stefonowicz	G	So	6'2"	35-33	32.5	9.1	3.1	4.8	2.1	52.6%	37.7%	4.2	90.3%	18.0%
0	Trevian Carson	G	Jr	6'3"	35-34	31.6	11.9	6.5	2.9	1.6	54.9%	37.5%	3.4	80.3%	22.1%
1	Damari Wheeler-Thomas	G	Jr	6'0"	32-32	30.5	14.5	3.5	2.8	1.5	50.7%	38.3%	5.9	76.9%	27.7%
30	Markhi Strickland	G	Sr	6'6"	35-33	24.3	11.6	3.4	1.3	1.3	59.6%	0.0%	0.0	48.4%	27.0%
34	Noah Feddersen	F	Jr	6'10"	35-16	21.1	9.3	5.0	1.0	1.3	55.6%	29.3%	1.7	80.0%	24.1%
3	Tay Smith	G	Sr	6'2"	35-5	19.8	7.7	2.5	0.8	0.5	56.7%	39.1%	5.5	76.5%	21.2%
44	Treyson Anderson	F	So	6'9"	35-19	18.3	10.4	5.3	0.8	1.4	57.5%	35.8%	3.0	65.8%	32.6%
8	Emil Skytta	G	Jr	6'5"	26-0	12.1	3.7	1.8	0.7	0.3	58.6%	37.5%	0.3	40.0%	17.6%
2	Riley Massey	G	Fr	6'3"	32-1	8.6	1.4	1.0	0.5	0.3	37.0%	22.9%	1.1	71.4%	12.7%
7	Carson Smith	G	Fr	6'6"	24-2	9.9	3.0	1.3	0.2	0.3	42.4%	22.6%	1.3	91.7%	20.1%
11	Max Majerle	G	Jr	6'4"	18-0	5.5	1.0	0.9	0.5	0.4	29.5%	12.5%	0.4	100.0%	18.4%
22	Caleb Schoenrock	F	Fr	6'7"	8-0	2.3	0.3	0.5	0.1	0.1	33.3%	—	0.0	—	12.1%
13	Riley Saunders	G	Fr	5'11"	9-0	2.0	1.7	0.2	0.2	0.1	93.8%	62.5%	0.9	—	27.0%
14	Dom Clay	G	Fr	6'3"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Trends

Last 10 games of 2025-26

N Dakota St

Against the spread

Season

17-13-2

Home

7-4

Road

8-6-1

Last 10

5-5

avg cover +3.9

Missed the spread 2 straightCovered 5 of 8 as a favoriteCovered 2 of 5 with a line of 10+

Over / under

Season

14-16-2

Home

6-5

Road

7-7-1

Last 10

4-6

avg vs total −0.5

Over in the last gameOver in 3 of 8 as a favoriteOver in 3 of 5 with a line of 10+

Last 10 games, newest first

Date	Opponent	Site	Result			Total		PPP for	PPP vs	Pace
Mar 19	#3Michigan StAdjEM #11	N	L 67–92	+16.0	L−9.0	144.5	O159	92.0	126.4	72.8
Mar 8	North DakotaAdjEM #291	N	W 70–62	−11.0	L−3.0	148.0	U132	108.4	96.0	64.6
Mar 7	OmahaAdjEM #257	N	W 74–50	−8.0	W+16.0	147.0	U124	109.2	73.8	67.8
Mar 5	Oral RobertsAdjEM #314	N	W 76–65	−12.0	L−1.0	147.5	U141	113.3	96.9	67.1
Feb 28	North DakotaAdjEM #291	H	W 96–63	−12.0	W+21.0	152.5	O159	131.1	86.1	73.2
Feb 26	St ThomasAdjEM #84	A	L 62–84	+3.0	L−19.0	155.5	U146	95.1	128.8	65.2
Feb 21	Kansas CityAdjEM #359	H	W 95–59	−19.5	W+16.5	147.5	O154	123.0	76.4	77.2
Feb 18	S Dakota StAdjEM #197	A	W 74–66	−1.0	W+7.0	147.0	U140	113.0	100.8	65.5
Feb 14	North DakotaAdjEM #291	A	W 83–66	−5.5	W+11.5	150.5	U149	128.1	101.9	64.8
Feb 7	OmahaAdjEM #257	H	W 92–84	−9.5	L−1.5	144.5	O176	137.2	125.2	67.1

Saint Mary's

Against the spread

Season

19-13

Home

12-4

Road

6-4

Last 10

7-3

avg cover +3.0

Missed the spread 2 straightCovered 6 of 9 as a favorite

Over / under

Season

12-18-2

Home

7-7-2

Road

4-6

Last 10

3-7

avg vs total −5.3

Under 4 straightOver in 3 of 9 as a favorite

Last 10 games, newest first

Date	Opponent	Site	Result			Total		PPP for	PPP vs	Pace
Mar 19	#10Texas A&MAdjEM #43	N	L 50–63	−2.5	L−15.5	148.5	U113	84.5	106.4	59.2
Mar 9	Santa ClaraAdjEM #33	N	L 71–76	−4.5	L−9.5	150.0	U147	114.8	122.9	61.8
Feb 28	#9GonzagaAdjEM #8	H	W 70–59	+2.5	W+13.5	143.0	U129	109.4	92.2	64.0
Feb 25	Santa ClaraAdjEM #33	H	W 86–67	−5.5	W+13.5	154.0	U153	131.5	102.4	65.4
Feb 21	Washington StAdjEM #174	A	W 83–67	−8.5	W+7.5	148.5	O150	131.9	106.5	62.9
Feb 18	Seattle UAdjEM #125	A	W 72–70	−9.5	L−7.5	133.0	O142	98.4	95.7	73.1
Feb 14	PacificAdjEM #126	A	W 72–61	−7.0	W+4.0	135.5	U133	113.5	96.2	63.4
Feb 11	PepperdineAdjEM #307	H	W 88–60	−24.5	W+3.5	144.0	O148	122.9	83.8	71.6
Feb 7	San FranciscoAdjEM #148	H	W 79–54	−11.5	W+13.5	143.0	U133	123.1	84.1	64.2
Feb 4	San DiegoAdjEM #269	H	W 87–60	−19.5	W+7.5	149.0	U147	136.3	94.0	63.8

Records vs the closing line describe the past; ten games is a small sample.

Tale of the tape

national rank toned left for away, right for home

N Dakota StSaint Mary's

Efficiency

110.7

114.9

106.2

100.8

67.8

66.7

—

Shooting

53.2%

52.8%

53.3%

49.8%

35.4%

38.7%

71.4%

80.3%

30.6%

35.5%

Ball control & glass

15.6%

16.8%

18.7%

15.2%

32.9%

37.5%

25.5%

23.9%

9.2%

8.4%

9.3%

8.8%

Style

42.8%

36.4%

43.2%

40.9%

11.9%

10.5%

53.0%

57.8%

31.2%

29.3%

Roster

2.81

1.88

6'4.2"

6'6.2"

—

91.9%

Offseason

roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model input

N Dakota St

Returning minutes: 100.0%Returning production: 100.0%

ESPN hasn't posted N Dakota St's roster for this season yet — no movement to show.

Returns 100% of last season's minutes. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026). (ESPN hasn't posted this season's roster yet -- this may still be last season's list.)

Saint Mary's

Returning minutes: 91.9%Returning production: 91.8%

Lost

Harry Wessels 16.2 mpg, 4.6 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet

Added

Trent MacLean no D1 minutes last season
Jazz Gardner no D1 minutes last season

No incoming D1 transfers are listed on ESPN's roster yet — until they are, returning shares read high.

Returns 92% of last season's minutes. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026).

Head-to-head

this season and last

No meetings the last two seasons.

The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — Pinnacle's spread and total (the median across books when Pinnacle has no line). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, built bottom-up from those same numbers: expected possessions times each side's opponent-adjusted points per possession, plus home court.

What these numbers mean: line shopping.