CBB Matchups

Every D1 game with tempo-free ratings, four factors and market lines, one place.

College basketball is being built for the 2026-27 season (tip-off Nov 3). What's here fills in as games are played.

Non-conferenceMichael J. Hagan '85 Arena, Philadelphia, PA

Longwood

Efficiency #248

2025-26: 16-16 · 8-9 conf

Saint Joseph's

Efficiency #118

2025-26: 24-12 · 14-6 conf

Wed, Nov 4 · 7:00 PM ET

68.6

win 23%

Projected

77.1

win 77%

No line posted yet.

Model: JOES −8.5 · total 145.8 · ratings as of Sat, Oct 3

Preseason ratings start from 2025-26's final adjusted ratings, regressed toward the D1 average. The stats below are 2025-26's too; both update once 2026-27 games are played.

How the projection is built

each step, from an average D-I game to this one

Projected total

Average D-I game

148.2

PaceAdjusted tempo: Saint Joseph's 68.8, Longwood 69.0 → 69.5 possessions

+2.5

Saint Joseph's offense vs Longwood defense

−0.2

Longwood offense vs Saint Joseph's defense

−4.7

Projected total

145.8

Axis starts at 142 pointsPoints added or removed at each step

Projected margin

Even game

0.0

Saint Joseph's offense vs Longwood defense

−0.2

Longwood offense vs Saint Joseph's defense

+4.7

Home court+2.9 points per 100 possessions to the home offense, −2.9 to the visitors

+4.0

Saint Joseph's by 8.5

8.5

Longwood side ◂▸ Saint Joseph's side

Steps are rounded to one decimal, so they can differ from the total by 0.1. The margin is the same build seen from the home side; positive numbers help Saint Joseph's.

Pace & total

possessions per 40 minutes

Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes

Projected possessions: 69.5, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw 2025-26 season pace, Longwood is the faster team (69.4, #121 of 365) and Saint Joseph's the slower (68.2, #192). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (study weights 0.80 vs 0.66).

Projected possessions

69.5

per team, 40 min

Projected total

145.8

model

Projected team totals

68.6 / 77.1

Longwood / Saint Joseph's

Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent

69.0#120

Longwood

68.8#137

Saint Joseph's

How this game plays

what the study found each side's numbers actually do when these two teams meet

AdvantageLongwood

Where Longwood struggles: shooting

Longwood shoots an effective 49.7% (#254); Saint Joseph's allows 47.7% (#34). Expect about 48.5%, 2.8 points below an average D1 matchup — worth roughly -3.9 points per 100 possessions.

AdvantageSaint Joseph's

Where Saint Joseph's struggles: ball control

Saint Joseph's turns it over on 16.8% of possessions (#182); Longwood forces turnovers on 19.8% of opponent possessions (#29). Expect about 18.7%, 1.9 points above an average D1 matchup — worth roughly -2.3 points per 100 possessions.

Watch for noise

3-point caution

A notable season 3-point number here (Saint Joseph's) is close to a coin flip going forward — the study's model of next-game 3P% barely beats guessing the D1 average. Shot volume is what actually carries: expect Longwood at about 36.2% of its shots from three, Saint Joseph's about 46.0%.

ClashSaint Joseph's

Style match: 3-point volume

Saint Joseph's takes 45.1% of its shots from three; Longwood lets opponents take 42.6% of their shots from three (D1 average 39.5%). Expect about 46.0% — both habits push the same way.

GlassLongwood

Longwood owns the glass

Projected offensive rebound rate of 33.4% is worth roughly +1.8 points per 100 possessions for Longwood's offense.

DefenseLongwood

Longwood's ball-hawking

Longwood ranks #34 nationally in steal rate — one of the few defensive numbers that travels. Expect about 10.9% of Saint Joseph's's possessions to end in a steal against this defense.

Longwood has the ball

OffenseSaint Joseph's allowsvs D1 avg

49.7% #254

47.7% #34

-3.9 pt/100

19.1% #326

15.0% #286

-0.3 pt/100

34.6% #57

30.6% #185

+1.8 pt/100

41.3% #40

26.9% #20

-0.2 pt/100

74.0% #136

—

+0.1 pt/100

Longwood net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: -2.5 pts/100

Saint Joseph's has the ball

OffenseLongwood allowsvs D1 avg

49.2% #284

53.8% #293

+0.1 pt/100

16.8% #182

19.8% #29

-2.3 pt/100

31.4% #147

27.7% #58

-0.4 pt/100

29.7% #318

42.1% #326

+0.2 pt/100

73.8% #138

—

+0.1 pt/100

Saint Joseph's net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: -2.3 pts/100

Shot diet

Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot · 2025-26 numbers

Longwoodoffense vsSaint Joseph'sdefense

Share of shots by zone

Longwood shoots

43.0

5.2

17.1

34.7

Saint Joseph's allows

33.5

7.3

19.5

39.7

D-I average

38.5

6.4

15.8

39.3

FG% by zone

Zone			D-I avg
Rim	56.6%#252	52.6%#21	58.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)	44.0%#78	41.5%#226	39.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)	38.9%#150	38.3%#168	38.0%
Three	31.4%#309	31.7%#51	33.7%

Saint Joseph'soffense vsLongwooddefense

Share of shots by zone

Saint Joseph's shoots

40.1

4.5

11.0

44.5

Longwood allows

40.3

5.0

12.6

42.1

D-I average

38.5

6.4

15.8

39.3

FG% by zone

Zone			D-I avg
Rim	58.2%#189	63.8%#339	58.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)	35.7%#273	32.9%#28	39.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)	34.0%#312	39.7%#231	38.0%
Three	30.8%#325	33.8%#171	33.7%

RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three

Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).

Shot volume

Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line · 2025-26 numbers

Longwood

+2.6extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#70 of 365

Off reb %

34.6%

#57

Def reb %

72.3%

#58

Turnover %

19.1%

#326

Forced TO %

19.8%

#29

FT rate

41.3%

#40

FT allowed

42.1%

#326

Where the chances come from (per game)

Offensive rebounding+1.3

Defensive rebounding+0.9

Ball security−1.6

Forcing turnovers+2.1

Foul shots drawn+1.6

Foul shots allowed−1.8

Saint Joseph's

0.0extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#181 of 365

Off reb %

31.4%

#147

Def reb %

69.4%

#185

Turnover %

16.8%

#182

Forced TO %

15.0%

#286

FT rate

29.7%

#318

FT allowed

26.9%

#20

Where the chances come from (per game)

Offensive rebounding+0.3

Defensive rebounding0.0

Ball security0.0

Forcing turnovers−1.1

Foul shots drawn−1.4

Foul shots allowed+2.1

Longwood has more extra scoring chances per game: +2.6 (#70 of 365) to Saint Joseph's’s 0.0 (#181).

Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).

Rotation

Longwood2025-26 numbers

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
1	Jacoi Hutchinson	G	Jr	6'3"	31-31	28.4	12.3	3.3	3.2	1.8	46.5%	25.4%	2.2	86.2%	26.9%
77	Elijah Tucker	F	Sr	6'8"	32-32	26.3	12.5	6.8	1.1	2.7	59.0%	50.0%	0.1	71.2%	27.8%
0	Johan Nziemi	F	Sr	6'6"	29-27	25.9	10.6	6.0	1.8	2.0	51.9%	34.8%	0.8	73.1%	24.5%
3	Alphonzo Billups III	G	Jr	6'7"	32-18	23.1	8.1	2.8	1.3	1.2	54.2%	33.6%	3.8	64.3%	21.3%
24	Jaylen Benard	G	Jr	6'2"	32-0	19.8	7.3	3.7	0.9	1.0	53.2%	31.7%	3.8	56.3%	22.7%
23	Elijah Jones	F	Sr	6'7"	27-2	17.3	3.9	3.6	0.7	0.7	49.3%	31.3%	0.6	67.3%	13.9%
7	Elijah Kelly	G	Fr	6'7"	30-17	11.2	2.3	1.8	0.4	0.5	53.4%	34.2%	1.3	58.3%	13.5%
11	Jaylin Payne	F	Jr	6'8"	29-1	8.0	1.8	1.7	0.2	0.6	54.8%	0.0%	0.1	58.3%	15.6%
5	KJ McClurg	G	Sr	6'3"	4-0	14.3	2.0	2.3	0.5	0.3	13.3%	0.0%	1.5	50.0%	19.0%
8	Isaiah Kalala	F	Fr	6'9"	13-0	3.8	1.0	0.9	0.1	0.2	75.0%	—	0.0	58.3%	13.0%
30	Jerome Williams	G	Fr	6'0"	9-0	5.1	1.3	0.2	0.6	0.3	35.0%	20.0%	0.6	83.3%	19.1%
10	Gerald Burr III	G	Fr	6'2"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—
35	Quadri Bashiru	F	Fr	6'10"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Saint Joseph's2025-26 numbers

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
0	Derek Simpson	G	Sr	6'3"	36-36	33.9	13.8	5.3	5.2	2.1	49.1%	31.5%	5.0	91.7%	25.5%
11	Jaiden Glover-Toscano	G	So	6'6"	34-34	31.4	15.7	4.8	1.0	1.4	52.2%	34.6%	7.6	72.8%	29.4%
7	Dasear Haskins	G	So	6'8"	36-36	27.7	11.1	6.4	1.4	1.2	53.8%	29.9%	3.5	67.6%	23.6%
13	Austin Williford	G	Fr	6'4"	36-19	26.2	7.8	4.7	1.4	1.2	47.5%	33.6%	4.0	69.8%	20.4%
22	Justice Ajogbor	C	Sr	6'10"	36-33	26.0	6.5	4.9	1.3	0.8	66.4%	—	0.0	60.0%	13.0%
5	Anthony Finkley	F	Jr	6'7"	35-13	19.0	5.4	3.3	1.6	1.3	38.2%	28.8%	3.2	80.8%	22.2%
3	Khaafiq Myers	G	Fr	5'10"	34-0	15.8	5.1	2.9	2.3	1.1	42.8%	25.0%	1.8	60.6%	25.4%
23	Mekai Johnson	G	So	6'5"	17-0	4.2	1.2	0.4	0.1	0.1	52.9%	18.2%	0.6	100.0%	15.8%
21	Al Amadou	F	So	6'9"	11-0	6.3	1.4	0.8	0.3	0.5	54.5%	0.0%	0.2	42.9%	15.9%
15	Steven Solano	C	So	7'0"	8-0	4.1	1.9	1.3	0.1	0.5	77.8%	—	0.0	50.0%	23.8%
24	Will Lange	G	Jr	6'4"	5-0	3.4	0.8	0.6	0.2	0.2	33.3%	0.0%	0.2	100.0%	15.6%
20	Billy Rayer	G	So	5'11"	6-0	2.0	0.5	0.2	0.2	0.2	50.0%	33.3%	0.5	—	18.4%
6	Owen Verna	G	Fr	6'3"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Longwood2025-26 numbers

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
1	Jacoi Hutchinson	G	Jr	6'3"	31-31	28.4	12.3	3.3	3.2	1.8	46.5%	25.4%	2.2	86.2%	26.9%
77	Elijah Tucker	F	Sr	6'8"	32-32	26.3	12.5	6.8	1.1	2.7	59.0%	50.0%	0.1	71.2%	27.8%
0	Johan Nziemi	F	Sr	6'6"	29-27	25.9	10.6	6.0	1.8	2.0	51.9%	34.8%	0.8	73.1%	24.5%
3	Alphonzo Billups III	G	Jr	6'7"	32-18	23.1	8.1	2.8	1.3	1.2	54.2%	33.6%	3.8	64.3%	21.3%
24	Jaylen Benard	G	Jr	6'2"	32-0	19.8	7.3	3.7	0.9	1.0	53.2%	31.7%	3.8	56.3%	22.7%
23	Elijah Jones	F	Sr	6'7"	27-2	17.3	3.9	3.6	0.7	0.7	49.3%	31.3%	0.6	67.3%	13.9%
7	Elijah Kelly	G	Fr	6'7"	30-17	11.2	2.3	1.8	0.4	0.5	53.4%	34.2%	1.3	58.3%	13.5%
11	Jaylin Payne	F	Jr	6'8"	29-1	8.0	1.8	1.7	0.2	0.6	54.8%	0.0%	0.1	58.3%	15.6%
5	KJ McClurg	G	Sr	6'3"	4-0	14.3	2.0	2.3	0.5	0.3	13.3%	0.0%	1.5	50.0%	19.0%
8	Isaiah Kalala	F	Fr	6'9"	13-0	3.8	1.0	0.9	0.1	0.2	75.0%	—	0.0	58.3%	13.0%
30	Jerome Williams	G	Fr	6'0"	9-0	5.1	1.3	0.2	0.6	0.3	35.0%	20.0%	0.6	83.3%	19.1%
10	Gerald Burr III	G	Fr	6'2"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—
35	Quadri Bashiru	F	Fr	6'10"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Trends

Last 10 games of 2025-26

Longwood

Against the spread

Season

13-16

Home

7-5

Road

6-8

Last 10

5-5

avg cover +1.8

Missed the spread in the last gameCovered 3 of 6 as a favoriteCovered 2 of 4 as an underdog

Over / under

Season

17-12

Home

9-3

Road

7-7

Last 10

7-3

avg vs total +5.6

Over 3 straightOver in 5 of 6 as a favoriteOver in 2 of 4 as an underdog

Last 10 games, newest first

Date	Opponent	Site	Result			Total		PPP for	PPP vs	Pace
Mar 6	UNC AshevilleAdjEM #226	N	L 82–85 OT	−1.0	L−4.0	141.0	O167	107.1	111.0	76.5
Feb 28	RadfordAdjEM #245	H	W 90–74	−2.0	W+14.0	156.0	O164	122.0	100.3	73.8
Feb 21	Charleston SoAdjEM #220	A	W 107–96 2OT	+2.5	W+13.5	154.0	O203	125.8	112.9	85.0
Feb 19	PresbyterianAdjEM #252	A	L 65–72	+2.5	L−4.5	140.0	U137	97.8	108.3	66.5
Feb 14	SC UpstateAdjEM #284	H	W 82–75 OT	−6.0	W+1.0	146.5	O157	98.0	89.6	83.7
Feb 12	UNC AshevilleAdjEM #226	H	L 74–79	−2.0	L−7.0	142.5	O153	109.7	117.1	67.5
Feb 7	WinthropAdjEM #116	A	L 74–79	+10.0	W+5.0	152.5	O153	95.7	102.2	77.3
Feb 4	Gardner-WebbAdjEM #363	A	W 86–66	−12.5	W+7.5	148.0	O152	121.1	93.0	71.0
Jan 31	High PointAdjEM #50	H	L 59–71	+10.5	L−1.5	157.0	U130	93.5	112.5	63.1
Jan 29	SC UpstateAdjEM #284	A	L 60–65	−1.5	L−6.5	147.5	U125	85.2	92.3	70.4

Saint Joseph's

Against the spread

Season

20-14

Home

8-6

Road

10-6

Last 10

8-2

avg cover +5.5

Missed the spread in the last gameCovered 5 of 7 as an underdog

Over / under

Season

10-23-1

Home

7-7

Road

3-12-1

Last 10

2-7-1

avg vs total −2.6

Under 5 straightOver in 1 of 7 as an underdog, 1 push

Last 10 games, newest first

Date	Opponent	Site	Result			Total		PPP for	PPP vs	Pace
Mar 24	New MexicoAdjEM #42	A	L 69–84	+10.5	L−4.5	155.0	U153	93.5	113.9	73.8
Mar 22	CaliforniaAdjEM #79	A	W 76–75	+5.5	W+6.5	151.5	U151	111.9	110.4	67.9
Mar 18	Colorado StAdjEM #88	A	W 69–64	+6.0	W+11.0	145.5	U133	103.0	95.5	67.0
Mar 14	VCUAdjEM #39	N	L 64–77	+6.5	L−6.5	146.0	U141	98.4	118.4	65.0
Mar 13	DavidsonAdjEM #112	N	W 70–58	−2.0	W+10.0	132.5	U128	114.6	95.0	61.1
Mar 7	La SalleAdjEM #256	H	W 88–76	−10.5	W+1.5	142.5	O164	128.0	110.5	68.8
Mar 4	DavidsonAdjEM #112	A	W 70–67	+2.5	W+5.5	137.0	P137	106.7	102.1	65.6
Feb 28	Rhode IslandAdjEM #137	A	W 61–55	+2.0	W+8.0	141.0	U116	86.8	78.3	70.3
Feb 25	George MasonAdjEM #83	H	W 81–63	+1.0	W+19.0	136.5	O144	125.7	97.7	64.5
Feb 21	Loyola ChicagoAdjEM #309	H	W 75–61	−9.5	W+4.5	142.0	U136	113.9	92.6	65.9

Records vs the closing line describe the past; ten games is a small sample.

Tale of the tape

national rank toned left for away, right for home

LongwoodSaint Joseph's

Efficiency

105.7

107.1

109.5

104.5

69.0

68.8

—

Shooting

49.7%

49.2%

51.1%

51.7%

31.4%

30.8%

74.0%

73.8%

41.3%

29.7%

Ball control & glass

19.1%

16.8%

19.8%

15.0%

34.6%

31.4%

27.7%

30.6%

10.9%

9.7%

9.4%

10.8%

Style

34.8%

45.1%

44.2%

44.1%

11.8%

15.5%

47.1%

59.6%

39.8%

26.1%

Roster

3.25

2.54

6'5.6"

6'5.5"

76.6%

90.9%

Offseason

roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model input

Longwood

Returning minutes: 76.6%Returning production: 79.5%

Lost

Emanuel Richards 26.0 mpg, 9.7 ppg · transferred to E Michigan
Redd Thompson Jr. 22.1 mpg, 10.3 ppg · transferred to Mount St Marys

Added

Gerald Burr III no D1 minutes last season
Quadri Bashiru no D1 minutes last season

No incoming D1 transfers are listed on ESPN's roster yet — until they are, returning shares read high.

Returns 77% of last season's minutes; lost 1 of its top 5 (1 transferred). Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026).

Saint Joseph's

Returning minutes: 90.9%Returning production: 91.4%

Lost

Jaden Smith 9.1 mpg, 2.8 ppg · transferred to Ball State
Deuce Jones 7.5 mpg, 4.4 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
Kevin Kearney 1.6 mpg, 0.3 ppg · transferred to Manhattan

Added

Owen Verna no D1 minutes last season

No incoming D1 transfers are listed on ESPN's roster yet — until they are, returning shares read high.

Returns 91% of last season's minutes. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026).

Head-to-head

this season and last

No meetings the last two seasons.

The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — Pinnacle's spread and total (the median across books when Pinnacle has no line). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, built bottom-up from those same numbers: expected possessions times each side's opponent-adjusted points per possession, plus home court.

What these numbers mean: line shopping.