CBB Matchups

Every D1 game with tempo-free ratings, four factors and market lines, one place.

College basketball is being built for the 2026-27 season (tip-off Nov 3). What's here fills in as games are played.

Non-conferenceHinkle Fieldhouse, Indianapolis, IN

FDU

Efficiency #332

2025-26: 11-21 · 8-11 conf

Butler

Efficiency #87

2025-26: 16-16 · 7-14 conf

Wed, Nov 4 · TBD

66.7

win 11%

Projected

80.6

win 89%

No line posted yet.

Model: BTLR −13.9 · total 147.3 · ratings as of Sat, Oct 3

Preseason ratings start from 2025-26's final adjusted ratings, regressed toward the D1 average. The stats below are 2025-26's too; both update once 2026-27 games are played.

How the projection is built

each step, from an average D-I game to this one

Projected total

Average D-I game

148.2

PaceAdjusted tempo: Butler 69.3, FDU 66.2 → 67.2 possessions

−2.5

Butler offense vs FDU defense

+5.8

FDU offense vs Butler defense

−4.2

Projected total

147.3

Axis starts at 140 pointsPoints added or removed at each step

Projected margin

Even game

0.0

Butler offense vs FDU defense

+5.8

FDU offense vs Butler defense

+4.2

Home court+2.9 points per 100 possessions to the home offense, −2.9 to the visitors

+3.9

Butler by 13.9

13.9

FDU side ◂▸ Butler side

Steps are rounded to one decimal, so they can differ from the total by 0.1. The margin is the same build seen from the home side; positive numbers help Butler.

Pace & total

possessions per 40 minutes

Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes

Projected possessions: 67.2, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw 2025-26 season pace, Butler is the faster team (70.0, #95 of 365) and FDU the slower (64.1, #352). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (study weights 0.80 vs 0.66).

Projected possessions

67.2

per team, 40 min

Projected total

147.3

model

Projected team totals

66.7 / 80.6

FDU / Butler

Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent

66.2#337

FDU

69.3#97

Butler

How this game plays

what the study found each side's numbers actually do when these two teams meet

AdvantageFDU

Where FDU struggles: shooting

FDU shoots an effective 47.1% (#333); Butler allows 51.9% (#208). Expect about 49.2%, 2.1 points below an average D1 matchup — worth roughly -2.9 points per 100 possessions.

Pace

Tempo tug-of-war

Butler averages 70.0 possessions per 40, FDU 64.1. Slower teams pull the pace toward themselves more than fast teams push it (0.80 vs 0.66 in five seasons of games), so expect about 66 — more possessions mean more points in the total and more chances for the better team to separate.

AdvantageButler

Where Butler scores: shooting

Butler shoots an effective 50.9% (#199); FDU allows 55.2% (#336). Expect about 53.1%, 1.8 points above an average D1 matchup — worth roughly +2.5 points per 100 possessions.

Watch for noise

3-point caution

A notable season 3-point number here (FDU, FDU's defense) is close to a coin flip going forward — the study's model of next-game 3P% barely beats guessing the D1 average. Shot volume is what actually carries: expect FDU at about 42.8% of its shots from three, Butler about 36.5%.

ClashButler

Strength vs strength: offensive rebounding

Butler (#58 in offensive rebounding) against FDU (#46 in the same stat allowed) — both rank inside the national top 60. Expect about 31.8%. Historically Butler's own number has carried a bit more weight in that exchange (0.70 vs 0.49).

FDU has the ball

OffenseButler allowsvs D1 avg

47.1% #333

51.9% #208

-2.9 pt/100

18.1% #280

15.1% #275

+0.3 pt/100

32.0% #125

30.0% #163

+0.6 pt/100

32.8% #240

24.9% #6

-0.9 pt/100

70.1% #272

—

-0.2 pt/100

FDU net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: -3.2 pts/100

Butler has the ball

OffenseFDU allowsvs D1 avg

50.9% #199

55.2% #336

+2.5 pt/100

15.9% #132

16.1% #216

+1.1 pt/100

34.6% #58

27.3% #46

+0.9 pt/100

42.1% #29

36.3% #217

+0.5 pt/100

71.9% #210

—

-0.0 pt/100

Butler net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: +5.0 pts/100

Shot diet

Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot · 2025-26 numbers

FDUoffense vsButlerdefense

Share of shots by zone

FDU shoots

35.6

5.8

14.0

44.6

Butler allows

38.3

7.0

16.9

37.8

D-I average

38.5

6.4

15.8

39.3

FG% by zone

Zone			D-I avg
Rim	57.1%#236	62.3%#305	58.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)	37.3%#239	47.7%#337	39.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)	32.5%#337	33.6%#39	38.0%
Three	30.3%#339	33.3%#141	33.7%

Butleroffense vsFDUdefense

Share of shots by zone

Butler shoots

45.1

6.1

14.4

34.3

FDU allows

35.4

6.8

17.0

40.7

D-I average

38.5

6.4

15.8

39.3

FG% by zone

Zone			D-I avg
Rim	57.3%#216	60.0%#224	58.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)	36.2%#265	38.5%#148	39.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)	36.9%#225	43.3%#331	38.0%
Three	32.7%#242	37.8%#354	33.7%

RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three

Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).

Shot volume

Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line · 2025-26 numbers

FDU

−0.6extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#205 of 365

Off reb %

32.0%

#125

Def reb %

72.7%

#46

Turnover %

18.1%

#280

Forced TO %

16.1%

#216

FT rate

32.8%

#240

FT allowed

36.3%

#217

Where the chances come from (per game)

Offensive rebounding+0.5

Defensive rebounding+1.1

Ball security−0.9

Forcing turnovers−0.4

Foul shots drawn−0.6

Foul shots allowed−0.3

Butler

+5.5extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#16 of 365

Off reb %

34.6%

#58

Def reb %

70.0%

#163

Turnover %

15.9%

#132

Forced TO %

15.1%

#275

FT rate

42.1%

#29

FT allowed

24.9%

Where the chances come from (per game)

Offensive rebounding+1.3

Defensive rebounding+0.2

Ball security+0.6

Forcing turnovers−1.1

Foul shots drawn+1.8

Foul shots allowed+2.7

Butler has more extra scoring chances per game: +5.5 (#16 of 365) to FDU’s −0.6 (#205).

Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).

Rotation

FDU2025-26 numbers

ESPN hasn't posted FDU's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
0	Joey Niesman	G	Sr	6'2"	32-28	33.9	12.3	3.8	3.2	1.9	50.3%	34.3%	5.4	74.1%	24.8%
2	Taeshaud Jackson	F	Sr	6'6"	32-32	29.6	10.3	8.4	1.6	1.8	48.6%	21.6%	1.6	76.2%	23.9%
7	Eric Parnell	G	Sr	6'3"	32-31	25.7	10.7	2.2	0.7	0.5	49.8%	33.1%	7.6	81.8%	26.2%
22	Cyril Martynov	C	Sr	7'0"	32-32	25.6	8.1	5.4	2.3	1.9	53.9%	14.3%	0.2	53.6%	22.8%
35	David Jevtic	G	Fr	6'8"	31-10	20.3	6.6	3.4	1.2	1.3	48.0%	32.6%	3.0	66.0%	24.0%
55	Arthur Cox	F	Sr	6'8"	29-1	20.1	8.8	3.7	1.3	1.6	48.9%	29.2%	2.2	78.0%	29.3%
3	Raysean Johnson	G	So	6'1"	31-17	17.4	4.6	1.8	0.7	0.9	43.4%	27.6%	1.9	67.9%	20.1%
8	Noah Melson	G	Jr	6'6"	25-6	17.3	6.0	1.6	0.5	0.6	45.6%	32.7%	3.9	53.8%	24.7%
24	Ras Elijah Godbolt	G	Fr	6'0"	30-2	11.7	1.3	0.8	0.9	0.3	30.2%	21.1%	0.6	86.7%	10.5%
15	Josiah Francis	G	So	6'8"	14-0	6.9	1.4	2.1	0.0	0.6	31.8%	18.2%	0.8	83.3%	20.7%
9	Sebastian Haubro	F	Fr	6'10"	23-0	3.7	0.6	0.9	0.2	0.2	40.0%	—	0.0	90.0%	10.7%
5	Chid Ekwommadu	G	So	6'6"	2-0	8.0	0.0	0.5	0.0	1.0	0.0%	0.0%	1.0	—	14.2%
11	Tyler McQuaid	G	Fr	6'0"	7-0	1.6	0.3	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0%	0.0%	0.3	100.0%	16.1%
21	Cole Alexander	F	Sr	6'7"	5-1	1.2	0.6	0.6	0.0	0.0	50.0%	0.0%	0.2	50.0%	30.3%
30	Andrew Canda	G	So	6'0"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—
1	Kody Frey	G	Fr	6'6"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Butler2025-26 numbers

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
11	Finley Bizjack	G	Jr	6'4"	31-31	34.0	17.1	2.2	2.5	1.7	51.4%	34.9%	6.3	85.0%	27.9%
7	Jamie Kaiser Jr.	G	So	6'6"	30-29	29.0	9.5	4.3	1.0	0.7	52.4%	34.5%	3.9	75.8%	18.3%
21	Yohan Traore	F	Sr	6'11"	32-0	19.6	8.3	3.0	0.8	0.6	55.5%	20.0%	0.5	70.9%	21.8%
13	Drayton Jones	C	Jr	6'11"	32-32	19.5	6.3	4.6	1.4	0.7	58.6%	0.0%	0.0	72.0%	16.9%
1	Evan Haywood	G	So	6'4"	29-3	19.4	7.2	1.9	1.2	0.4	49.7%	35.9%	5.3	75.0%	22.1%
8	Yame Butler	G	Sr	6'5"	31-2	13.6	4.2	1.2	1.4	0.7	50.5%	28.9%	1.2	74.3%	18.9%
4	Efeosa Oliogu-Elabor	F	Fr	6'6"	25-10	16.4	5.0	2.2	2.0	1.4	41.9%	10.5%	0.8	62.1%	24.0%
23	Azavier Robinson	G	Fr	6'2"	22-15	18.3	6.1	1.9	2.5	1.9	53.5%	43.3%	1.4	71.1%	22.6%
0	Jackson Keith	F	Fr	6'5"	26-0	8.6	2.0	1.7	0.2	0.2	50.0%	29.4%	0.7	57.1%	13.6%
2	Jalen Jackson	G	Sr	6'2"	6-6	22.5	9.5	3.5	3.8	3.0	53.5%	40.0%	0.8	57.9%	27.6%
6	Jack McCaffery	F	Fr	6'9"	9-0	9.6	2.8	1.6	0.4	0.4	47.5%	21.4%	1.6	75.0%	17.3%
3	Ethan McComb	G	Jr	6'1"	6-0	1.2	0.3	0.0	0.3	0.0	100.0%	—	0.0	—	7.7%
35	Bryson Cardinal	F	Fr	6'7"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—
39	Kevin Ndzie	C	Jr	7'1"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

FDU2025-26 numbers

ESPN hasn't posted FDU's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
0	Joey Niesman	G	Sr	6'2"	32-28	33.9	12.3	3.8	3.2	1.9	50.3%	34.3%	5.4	74.1%	24.8%
2	Taeshaud Jackson	F	Sr	6'6"	32-32	29.6	10.3	8.4	1.6	1.8	48.6%	21.6%	1.6	76.2%	23.9%
7	Eric Parnell	G	Sr	6'3"	32-31	25.7	10.7	2.2	0.7	0.5	49.8%	33.1%	7.6	81.8%	26.2%
22	Cyril Martynov	C	Sr	7'0"	32-32	25.6	8.1	5.4	2.3	1.9	53.9%	14.3%	0.2	53.6%	22.8%
35	David Jevtic	G	Fr	6'8"	31-10	20.3	6.6	3.4	1.2	1.3	48.0%	32.6%	3.0	66.0%	24.0%
55	Arthur Cox	F	Sr	6'8"	29-1	20.1	8.8	3.7	1.3	1.6	48.9%	29.2%	2.2	78.0%	29.3%
3	Raysean Johnson	G	So	6'1"	31-17	17.4	4.6	1.8	0.7	0.9	43.4%	27.6%	1.9	67.9%	20.1%
8	Noah Melson	G	Jr	6'6"	25-6	17.3	6.0	1.6	0.5	0.6	45.6%	32.7%	3.9	53.8%	24.7%
24	Ras Elijah Godbolt	G	Fr	6'0"	30-2	11.7	1.3	0.8	0.9	0.3	30.2%	21.1%	0.6	86.7%	10.5%
15	Josiah Francis	G	So	6'8"	14-0	6.9	1.4	2.1	0.0	0.6	31.8%	18.2%	0.8	83.3%	20.7%
9	Sebastian Haubro	F	Fr	6'10"	23-0	3.7	0.6	0.9	0.2	0.2	40.0%	—	0.0	90.0%	10.7%
5	Chid Ekwommadu	G	So	6'6"	2-0	8.0	0.0	0.5	0.0	1.0	0.0%	0.0%	1.0	—	14.2%
11	Tyler McQuaid	G	Fr	6'0"	7-0	1.6	0.3	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0%	0.0%	0.3	100.0%	16.1%
21	Cole Alexander	F	Sr	6'7"	5-1	1.2	0.6	0.6	0.0	0.0	50.0%	0.0%	0.2	50.0%	30.3%
30	Andrew Canda	G	So	6'0"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—
1	Kody Frey	G	Fr	6'6"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Trends

Last 10 games of 2025-26

FDU

Against the spread

Season

9-19-1

Home

4-6-1

Road

5-13

Last 10

2-7-1

avg cover −2.7

Missed the spread 6 straightCovered 2 of 6 as a favorite, 1 pushCovered 0 of 4 as an underdog

Over / under

Season

10-19

Home

4-7

Road

6-12

Last 10

3-7

avg vs total −2.9

Under 3 straightOver in 3 of 6 as a favoriteOver in 0 of 4 as an underdog

Last 10 games, newest first

Date	Opponent	Site	Result			Total		PPP for	PPP vs	Pace
Mar 4	MercyhurstAdjEM #261	A	L 61–70	+4.0	L−5.0	132.5	U131	94.2	108.0	64.8
Feb 28	Long IslandAdjEM #195	A	L 60–74	+9.0	L−5.0	137.5	U134	95.3	117.6	62.9
Feb 26	Le MoyneAdjEM #270	A	L 59–76	+4.5	L−12.5	139.5	U135	92.2	118.7	64.0
Feb 21	New HavenAdjEM #326	H	L 77–84	−2.5	L−9.5	124.5	O161	122.6	133.7	62.8
Feb 19	Chicago StAdjEM #342	A	W 60–59	−2.0	L−1.0	132.0	U119	113.5	111.6	52.9
Feb 14	C ConnecticutAdjEM #277	H	L 57–63	+1.0	L−5.0	134.0	U120	100.9	111.5	56.5
Feb 12	Saint Francis Red Wolves	H	W 66–59	−7.0	P0.0	142.5	U125	100.9	90.2	65.4
Feb 7	MercyhurstAdjEM #261	H	W 55–52	−2.5	W+0.5	131.0	U107	101.4	95.9	54.3
Feb 5	StonehillAdjEM #320	H	W 74–58	−1.0	W+15.0	131.0	O132	116.1	91.0	63.7
Jan 31	WagnerAdjEM #285	A	L 72–75 OT	−1.5	L−4.5	135.5	O147	105.0	109.4	68.6

Butler

Against the spread

Season

16-15-1

Home

8-8-1

Road

6-5

Last 10

5-5

avg cover −2.1

Missed the spread in the last gameCovered 4 of 8 as an underdog

Over / under

Season

19-12-1

Home

9-7-1

Road

8-3

Last 10

6-4

avg vs total +0.9

Over 2 straightOver in 6 of 8 as an underdog

Last 10 games, newest first

Date	Opponent	Site	Result			Total		PPP for	PPP vs	Pace
Mar 11	ProvidenceAdjEM #81	N	L 81–91	+2.0	L−8.0	162.5	O172	111.6	125.4	72.6
Mar 7	DePaulAdjEM #113	A	W 81–71	+4.0	W+14.0	142.5	O152	110.4	96.8	73.4
Mar 4	CreightonAdjEM #92	H	L 59–76	−2.5	L−19.5	155.5	U135	83.4	107.4	70.8
Feb 25	VillanovaAdjEM #40	A	L 73–82	+10.5	W+1.5	147.0	O155	103.9	116.7	70.2
Feb 21	XavierAdjEM #129	H	W 80–75	−4.5	W+0.5	159.5	U155	117.7	110.4	67.9
Feb 18	GeorgetownAdjEM #95	A	W 93–89	+6.0	W+10.0	147.0	O182	136.4	130.5	68.2
Feb 15	Seton HallAdjEM #56	H	L 56–63	+4.0	L−3.0	138.5	U119	83.6	94.1	67.0
Feb 11	#6UConnAdjEM #10	H	L 70–80	+11.5	W+1.5	143.5	O150	115.8	132.4	60.4
Feb 7	MarquetteAdjEM #100	A	L 55–70	+3.5	L−11.5	155.5	U125	82.2	104.6	66.9
Feb 4	ProvidenceAdjEM #81	A	L 87–97 2OT	+3.0	L−7.0	168.5	O184	110.4	123.0	78.8

Records vs the closing line describe the past; ten games is a small sample.

Tale of the tape

national rank toned left for away, right for home

FDUButler

Efficiency

103.2

112.2

113.4

107.4

66.2

69.3

—

Shooting

47.1%

50.9%

48.6%

51.9%

30.3%

32.7%

70.1%

71.9%

32.8%

42.1%

Ball control & glass

18.1%

15.9%

16.1%

15.1%

32.0%

34.6%

27.3%

30.0%

9.8%

9.5%

9.4%

11.9%

Style

45.2%

34.9%

40.1%

46.6%

5.7%

15.0%

51.0%

57.2%

32.0%

32.1%

Roster

3.23

2.54

6'5.4"

6'6.1"

—

83.4%

Offseason

roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model input

FDU

Returning minutes: 100.0%Returning production: 100.0%

ESPN hasn't posted FDU's roster for this season yet — no movement to show.

Returns 100% of last season's minutes. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026). (ESPN hasn't posted this season's roster yet -- this may still be last season's list.)

Butler

Returning minutes: 83.4%Returning production: 78.3%

Lost

Michael Ajayi 33.6 mpg, 16.4 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet

Added

Bryson Cardinal no D1 minutes last season
Kevin Ndzie no D1 minutes last season

No incoming D1 transfers are listed on ESPN's roster yet — until they are, returning shares read high.

Returns 83% of last season's minutes; lost 1 of its top 5. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026).

Head-to-head

this season and last

No meetings the last two seasons.

The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — Pinnacle's spread and total (the median across books when Pinnacle has no line). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, built bottom-up from those same numbers: expected possessions times each side's opponent-adjusted points per possession, plus home court.

What these numbers mean: line shopping.