CBB Matchups

Every D1 game with tempo-free ratings, four factors and market lines, one place.

College basketball is being built for the 2026-27 season (tip-off Nov 3). What's here fills in as games are played.

Non-conferenceLeavey Center, Santa Clara, CA

Milwaukee

Efficiency #262

2025-26: 12-20 · 8-13 conf

Santa Clara

Efficiency #33

2025-26: 26-9 · 17-4 conf

Wed, Nov 4 · TBD

70.4

win 9%

Projected

86.3

win 91%

No line posted yet.

Model: SCU −15.8 · total 156.7 · ratings as of Sat, Oct 3

Preseason ratings start from 2025-26's final adjusted ratings, regressed toward the D1 average. The stats below are 2025-26's too; both update once 2026-27 games are played.

How the projection is built

each step, from an average D-I game to this one

Projected total

Average D-I game

148.2

PaceAdjusted tempo: Santa Clara 69.5, Milwaukee 68.5 → 69.6 possessions

+2.9

Santa Clara offense vs Milwaukee defense

+8.7

Milwaukee offense vs Santa Clara defense

−3.1

Projected total

156.7

Axis starts at 140 pointsPoints added or removed at each step

Projected margin

Even game

0.0

Santa Clara offense vs Milwaukee defense

+8.7

Milwaukee offense vs Santa Clara defense

+3.1

Home court+2.9 points per 100 possessions to the home offense, −2.9 to the visitors

+4.0

Santa Clara by 15.8

15.8

Milwaukee side ◂▸ Santa Clara side

Steps are rounded to one decimal, so they can differ from the total by 0.1. The margin is the same build seen from the home side; positive numbers help Santa Clara.

Pace & total

possessions per 40 minutes

Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes

Projected possessions: 69.6, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw 2025-26 season pace, Santa Clara is the faster team (69.5, #113 of 365) and Milwaukee the slower (69.1, #143). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (study weights 0.80 vs 0.66).

Projected possessions

69.6

per team, 40 min

Projected total

156.7

model

Projected team totals

70.4 / 86.3

Milwaukee / Santa Clara

Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent

68.5#168

Milwaukee

69.5#84

Santa Clara

How this game plays

what the study found each side's numbers actually do when these two teams meet

AdvantageSanta Clara

Where Santa Clara scores: shooting

Santa Clara shoots an effective 54.4% (#53); Milwaukee allows 55.5% (#340). Expect about 55.3%, 4.0 points above an average D1 matchup — worth roughly +5.7 points per 100 possessions.

GlassSanta Clara

Santa Clara owns the glass

Projected offensive rebound rate of 34.0% is worth roughly +2.2 points per 100 possessions for Santa Clara's offense.

Watch for noise

3-point caution

A notable season 3-point number here (Milwaukee's defense) is close to a coin flip going forward — the study's model of next-game 3P% barely beats guessing the D1 average. Shot volume is what actually carries: expect Milwaukee at about 37.7% of its shots from three, Santa Clara about 44.3%.

TurnoversSanta Clara

Santa Clara protects the ball

Projected turnover rate of 15.4% is worth roughly +1.7 points per 100 possessions for Santa Clara's offense.

AdvantageMilwaukee

Where Milwaukee scores: the offensive glass

Milwaukee rebounds 33.0% of its own misses (#88); Santa Clara lets opponents grab 32.1% of their own misses (#262). Expect about 33.1%, 2.7 points above an average D1 matchup — worth roughly +1.6 points per 100 possessions.

DefenseSanta Clara

Santa Clara's ball-hawking

Santa Clara ranks #17 nationally in steal rate — one of the few defensive numbers that travels. Expect about 11.0% of Milwaukee's possessions to end in a steal against this defense.

Milwaukee has the ball

OffenseSanta Clara allowsvs D1 avg

49.9% #242

52.0% #213

-0.6 pt/100

15.2% #81

19.9% #25

-1.4 pt/100

33.0% #88

32.1% #262

+1.6 pt/100

32.1% #256

38.2% #264

+0.1 pt/100

68.7% #307

—

-0.3 pt/100

Milwaukee net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: -0.7 pts/100

Santa Clara has the ball

OffenseMilwaukee allowsvs D1 avg

54.4% #53

55.5% #340

+5.7 pt/100

15.4% #99

15.8% #228

+1.7 pt/100

36.4% #20

29.2% #121

+2.2 pt/100

25.5% #363

35.9% #208

-0.5 pt/100

74.4% #106

—

+0.2 pt/100

Santa Clara net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: +9.2 pts/100

Shot diet

Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot · 2025-26 numbers

Milwaukeeoffense vsSanta Claradefense

Share of shots by zone

Milwaukee shoots

39.4

5.6

17.0

38.1

Santa Clara allows

43.0

5.2

13.7

38.1

D-I average

38.5

6.4

15.8

39.3

FG% by zone

Zone			D-I avg
Rim	55.2%#295	61.4%#281	58.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)	41.2%#140	38.4%#144	39.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)	39.7%#124	32.9%#26	38.0%
Three	32.3%#266	33.1%#127	33.7%

Santa Claraoffense vsMilwaukeedefense

Share of shots by zone

Santa Clara shoots

35.1

10.4

10.2

44.2

Milwaukee allows

41.9

5.8

12.1

40.1

D-I average

38.5

6.4

15.8

39.3

FG% by zone

Zone			D-I avg
Rim	61.3%#84	61.6%#287	58.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)	47.2%#37	46.9%#330	39.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)	44.1%#24	38.7%#189	38.0%
Three	34.9%#125	36.5%#329	33.7%

RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three

Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).

Shot volume

Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line · 2025-26 numbers

Milwaukee

+0.9extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#146 of 365

Off reb %

33.0%

#88

Def reb %

70.8%

#121

Turnover %

15.2%

#81

Forced TO %

15.8%

#228

FT rate

32.1%

#256

FT allowed

35.9%

#208

Where the chances come from (per game)

Offensive rebounding+0.9

Defensive rebounding+0.4

Ball security+1.1

Forcing turnovers−0.6

Foul shots drawn−0.8

Foul shots allowed−0.2

Santa Clara

+1.4extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#123 of 365

Off reb %

36.4%

#20

Def reb %

67.9%

#262

Turnover %

15.4%

#99

Forced TO %

19.9%

#25

FT rate

25.5%

#363

FT allowed

38.2%

#264

Where the chances come from (per game)

Offensive rebounding+1.9

Defensive rebounding−0.5

Ball security+0.9

Forcing turnovers+2.2

Foul shots drawn−2.4

Foul shots allowed−0.8

Santa Clara has more extra scoring chances per game: +1.4 (#123 of 365) to Milwaukee’s +0.9 (#146).

Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).

Rotation

Milwaukee2025-26 numbers

ESPN hasn't posted Milwaukee's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
29	Aaron Franklin	G	Sr	6'5"	32-22	25.2	6.8	6.3	1.2	0.7	59.4%	34.5%	0.9	44.4%	15.2%
5	Isaiah Dorceus	G	Jr	6'0"	31-16	22.2	5.5	1.5	3.7	1.7	43.8%	32.5%	2.5	65.7%	20.0%
8	Stevie Elam	G	Fr	6'3"	25-12	26.2	10.5	4.7	0.8	0.5	50.2%	35.4%	5.8	81.1%	22.5%
1	Amar Augillard	G	Sr	6'5"	31-24	20.8	12.6	2.6	1.1	1.8	47.7%	32.4%	5.7	83.3%	38.3%
2	Josh Dixon	G	Fr	6'1"	32-12	18.5	9.0	1.1	1.6	1.3	44.5%	31.2%	2.9	87.1%	33.0%
24	Esyah Pippa-White	G	Jr	6'2"	32-15	18.5	4.4	1.8	2.3	1.0	35.3%	23.9%	2.8	56.9%	20.4%
11	Chandler Jackson	F	Jr	6'7"	24-9	23.0	9.7	2.8	0.9	1.1	57.5%	32.9%	2.9	79.4%	23.1%
3	Danilo Jovanovich	F	Sr	6'8"	17-17	30.2	12.4	6.1	2.2	1.0	61.8%	53.8%	0.8	71.0%	20.7%
22	Faizon Fields	F	Sr	6'10"	21-20	21.2	6.7	5.6	0.4	1.0	62.0%	66.7%	0.1	58.9%	17.5%
25	Sekou Konneh	F	Fr	6'9"	31-3	13.4	6.4	4.7	0.3	0.7	56.1%	11.1%	0.3	57.1%	27.2%
12	Seth Hubbard	G	Sr	6'4"	9-9	30.7	16.6	3.3	2.1	1.1	50.4%	35.9%	4.3	75.8%	29.6%
34	Tate Mackenzie	F	Jr	6'10"	18-1	7.0	0.9	1.2	0.1	0.3	45.5%	—	0.0	50.0%	10.3%
9	Simeon Murchison	F	So	6'9"	16-0	5.4	1.3	0.9	0.1	0.3	50.0%	—	0.0	85.7%	14.2%
23	Austin Villarreal	G	So	6'1"	4-0	1.8	0.5	1.0	0.0	0.0	25.0%	0.0%	0.8	—	30.6%
00	John Lovelace Jr.	G	Sr	6'8"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—
10	Ned Renfree	G	Fr	6'2"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Santa Clara2025-26 numbers

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
1	Christian Hammond	G	So	6'4"	34-34	30.3	15.6	3.0	2.5	1.7	54.9%	39.3%	4.0	78.7%	28.7%
44	Jake Ensminger	G	Jr	6'9"	32-32	28.8	6.5	5.5	2.9	0.9	66.1%	39.8%	2.8	66.7%	11.6%
0	Brenton Knapper	G	Sr	6'0"	33-33	21.5	7.5	1.8	2.2	1.2	45.6%	27.4%	3.4	79.2%	23.4%
2	Sash Gavalyugov	G	Fr	6'3"	35-2	20.0	9.0	1.9	2.7	1.4	51.6%	35.8%	5.3	72.0%	28.4%
15	Thierry Darlan	G	Jr	6'8"	35-1	17.9	6.1	3.6	0.9	1.4	50.3%	33.9%	3.4	88.6%	22.0%
7	KJ Cochran	G	Fr	6'5"	34-0	11.8	4.7	1.4	0.6	0.4	51.4%	27.1%	2.5	65.2%	23.5%
3	Francis Chukwudebelu	C	Fr	6'10"	24-0	6.8	1.4	1.3	0.7	0.0	52.0%	40.0%	0.2	50.0%	11.5%
50	Brendan Yarusso	G	Sr	6'1"	8-0	1.3	2.0	0.3	0.0	0.0	50.0%	36.4%	1.4	100.0%	77.2%
51	Juan Reyna	G	Sr	6'3"	1-0	2.0	0.0	2.0	0.0	1.0	—	—	0.0	—	27.7%
4	Brad Longcor III	G	Fr	6'4"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—
14	Chris Tadjo	F	So	6'7"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—
9	Gehrig Normand	G	So	6'6"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—
54	Malachi Douyon	G	Sr	6'3"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—
10	Noah Badibanga	F	Fr	6'8"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Milwaukee2025-26 numbers

ESPN hasn't posted Milwaukee's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
29	Aaron Franklin	G	Sr	6'5"	32-22	25.2	6.8	6.3	1.2	0.7	59.4%	34.5%	0.9	44.4%	15.2%
5	Isaiah Dorceus	G	Jr	6'0"	31-16	22.2	5.5	1.5	3.7	1.7	43.8%	32.5%	2.5	65.7%	20.0%
8	Stevie Elam	G	Fr	6'3"	25-12	26.2	10.5	4.7	0.8	0.5	50.2%	35.4%	5.8	81.1%	22.5%
1	Amar Augillard	G	Sr	6'5"	31-24	20.8	12.6	2.6	1.1	1.8	47.7%	32.4%	5.7	83.3%	38.3%
2	Josh Dixon	G	Fr	6'1"	32-12	18.5	9.0	1.1	1.6	1.3	44.5%	31.2%	2.9	87.1%	33.0%
24	Esyah Pippa-White	G	Jr	6'2"	32-15	18.5	4.4	1.8	2.3	1.0	35.3%	23.9%	2.8	56.9%	20.4%
11	Chandler Jackson	F	Jr	6'7"	24-9	23.0	9.7	2.8	0.9	1.1	57.5%	32.9%	2.9	79.4%	23.1%
3	Danilo Jovanovich	F	Sr	6'8"	17-17	30.2	12.4	6.1	2.2	1.0	61.8%	53.8%	0.8	71.0%	20.7%
22	Faizon Fields	F	Sr	6'10"	21-20	21.2	6.7	5.6	0.4	1.0	62.0%	66.7%	0.1	58.9%	17.5%
25	Sekou Konneh	F	Fr	6'9"	31-3	13.4	6.4	4.7	0.3	0.7	56.1%	11.1%	0.3	57.1%	27.2%
12	Seth Hubbard	G	Sr	6'4"	9-9	30.7	16.6	3.3	2.1	1.1	50.4%	35.9%	4.3	75.8%	29.6%
34	Tate Mackenzie	F	Jr	6'10"	18-1	7.0	0.9	1.2	0.1	0.3	45.5%	—	0.0	50.0%	10.3%
9	Simeon Murchison	F	So	6'9"	16-0	5.4	1.3	0.9	0.1	0.3	50.0%	—	0.0	85.7%	14.2%
23	Austin Villarreal	G	So	6'1"	4-0	1.8	0.5	1.0	0.0	0.0	25.0%	0.0%	0.8	—	30.6%
00	John Lovelace Jr.	G	Sr	6'8"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—
10	Ned Renfree	G	Fr	6'2"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Trends

Last 10 games of 2025-26

Milwaukee

Against the spread

Season

11-19-1

Home

6-8

Road

5-11-1

Last 10

4-6

avg cover −4.8

Missed the spread in the last gameCovered 2 of 5 as a favoriteCovered 2 of 5 as an underdog

Over / under

Season

14-17

Home

6-8

Road

8-9

Last 10

4-6

avg vs total −0.8

Under 3 straightOver in 4 of 5 as a favoriteOver in 0 of 5 as an underdog

Last 10 games, newest first

Date	Opponent	Site	Result			Total		PPP for	PPP vs	Pace
Mar 4	Detroit MercyAdjEM #224	A	L 63–84	+1.0	L−20.0	151.5	U147	93.7	124.9	67.2
Feb 25	Youngstown StAdjEM #204	H	W 78–65	+1.0	W+14.0	148.5	U143	113.9	94.9	68.5
Feb 22	OaklandAdjEM #172	A	L 70–81	+6.5	L−4.5	160.0	U151	107.1	123.9	65.4
Feb 20	Detroit MercyAdjEM #224	A	L 86–91	−1.0	L−6.0	153.0	O177	122.5	129.7	70.2
Feb 15	Green BayAdjEM #222	H	W 75–72	−2.5	W+0.5	145.5	O147	121.8	117.0	61.6
Feb 10	IU IndyAdjEM #315	A	W 92–88	−2.0	W+2.0	158.0	O180	118.7	113.6	77.5
Feb 7	N KentuckyAdjEM #164	A	L 62–67	+7.0	W+2.0	156.5	U129	99.1	107.1	62.6
Feb 4	Detroit MercyAdjEM #224	H	L 63–76	−6.0	L−19.0	159.0	U139	98.6	119.0	63.9
Feb 1	Cleveland StAdjEM #330	H	L 88–90	−10.0	L−12.0	160.5	O178	126.5	129.3	69.6
Jan 30	Wright StAdjEM #119	H	L 69–76	+2.5	L−4.5	151.5	U145	94.8	104.4	72.8

Santa Clara

Against the spread

Season

17-16-1

Home

9-5

Road

6-5

Last 10

3-7

avg cover +0.1

Missed the spread 2 straightCovered 2 of 5 as a favoriteCovered 1 of 5 as an underdog

Over / under

Season

19-15

Home

8-6

Road

7-4

Last 10

6-4

avg vs total +7.6

Over in the last gameOver in 4 of 5 as a favoriteOver in 2 of 5 as an underdog

Last 10 games, newest first

Date	Opponent	Site	Result			Total		PPP for	PPP vs	Pace
Mar 20	#7KentuckyAdjEM #27	N	L 84–89 OT	+3.5	L−1.5	157.5	O173	112.6	119.3	74.6
Mar 10	#12GonzagaAdjEM #8	N	L 68–79	+8.0	L−3.0	156.5	U147	112.7	130.9	60.4
Mar 9	#21Saint Mary'sAdjEM #23	N	W 76–71	+4.5	W+9.5	150.0	U147	122.9	114.8	61.8
Mar 8	PacificAdjEM #126	N	W 76–68	−9.5	L−1.5	148.0	U144	128.4	114.9	59.2
Feb 28	Oregon StAdjEM #219	H	W 93–72	−16.5	W+4.5	153.0	O165	135.8	105.2	68.5
Feb 25	Saint Mary'sAdjEM #23	A	L 67–86	+5.5	L−13.5	154.0	U153	102.4	131.5	65.4
Feb 21	San FranciscoAdjEM #148	A	W 94–73	−6.5	W+14.5	159.0	O167	125.9	97.8	74.7
Feb 14	#12GonzagaAdjEM #8	H	L 86–94	+5.0	L−3.0	158.5	O180	112.6	123.1	76.4
Feb 11	Seattle UAdjEM #125	H	W 84–72	−12.5	L−0.5	147.0	O156	122.8	105.2	68.4
Feb 7	Washington StAdjEM #174	A	W 96–92	−8.5	L−4.5	160.5	O188	135.5	129.8	70.9

Records vs the closing line describe the past; ten games is a small sample.

Tale of the tape

national rank toned left for away, right for home

MilwaukeeSanta Clara

Efficiency

107.1

117.3

112.2

105.4

68.5

69.5

—

Shooting

49.9%

54.4%

50.8%

56.1%

32.3%

34.9%

68.7%

74.4%

32.1%

25.5%

Ball control & glass

15.2%

15.4%

15.8%

19.9%

33.0%

36.4%

29.2%

32.1%

8.4%

9.2%

9.5%

9.0%

Style

38.1%

45.0%

44.2%

43.7%

16.7%

15.2%

48.1%

55.0%

35.0%

35.7%

Roster

2.89

2.38

6'4.7"

6'5.1"

—

65.0%

Offseason

roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model input

Milwaukee

Returning minutes: 100.0%Returning production: 100.0%

ESPN hasn't posted Milwaukee's roster for this season yet — no movement to show.

Returns 100% of last season's minutes. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026). (ESPN hasn't posted this season's roster yet -- this may still be last season's list.)

Santa Clara

Returning minutes: 65.0%Returning production: 55.6%

Lost

Elijah Mahi 30.4 mpg, 14.1 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
Allen Graves 22.6 mpg, 11.8 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
Bukky Oboye 17.3 mpg, 7.7 ppg · transferred to Auburn

Added

Brad Longcor III no D1 minutes last season
Malachi Douyon no D1 minutes last season
Noah Badibanga no D1 minutes last season
Chris Tadjo no D1 minutes last season
Gehrig Normand no D1 minutes last season

No incoming D1 transfers are listed on ESPN's roster yet — until they are, returning shares read high.

Returns 65% of last season's minutes; lost 2 of its top 5. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026).

Head-to-head

this season and last

No meetings the last two seasons.

The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — Pinnacle's spread and total (the median across books when Pinnacle has no line). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, built bottom-up from those same numbers: expected possessions times each side's opponent-adjusted points per possession, plus home court.

What these numbers mean: line shopping.