CBB Matchups

Every D1 game with tempo-free ratings, four factors and market lines, one place.

College basketball is being built for the 2026-27 season (tip-off Nov 3). What's here fills in as games are played.
Non-conferenceHaas Pavilion, Berkeley, CA
Radford
Efficiency #245
2025-26: 16-16 · 9-8 conf
@
California
Efficiency #79
2025-26: 22-12 · 9-10 conf
Wed, Nov 4 · TBD
71.6
win 17%
Projected
82.6
win 83%
No line posted yet.
Model: CAL −11.1 · total 154.2 · ratings as of Sat, Oct 3
Preseason ratings start from 2025-26's final adjusted ratings, regressed toward the D1 average. The stats below are 2025-26's too; both update once 2026-27 games are played.

How the projection is built

each step, from an average D-I game to this one
Projected total
Average D-I game
148.2
PaceAdjusted tempo: California 68.7, Radford 70.6 → 71.0 possessions
+5.8
California offense vs Radford defense
+3.6
Radford offense vs California defense
−3.4
Projected total
154.2
Axis starts at 140 pointsPoints added or removed at each step
Projected margin
Even game
0.0
California offense vs Radford defense
+3.6
Radford offense vs California defense
+3.4
Home court+2.9 points per 100 possessions to the home offense, −2.9 to the visitors
+4.1
California by 11.1
11.1
Radford side ◂▸ California side

Steps are rounded to one decimal, so they can differ from the total by 0.1. The margin is the same build seen from the home side; positive numbers help California.

Pace & total

possessions per 40 minutes
Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes

Projected possessions: 71.0, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw 2025-26 season pace, Radford is the faster team (72.3, #18 of 365) and California the slower (69.3, #125). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (study weights 0.80 vs 0.66).

Projected possessions
71.0
per team, 40 min
Projected total
154.2
model
Projected team totals
71.6 / 82.6
Radford / California
Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent
70.6#24
Radford
68.7#141
California

How this game plays

what the study found each side's numbers actually do when these two teams meet
Pace
Track meet
California averages 69.3 possessions per 40, Radford 72.3. Slower teams pull the pace toward themselves more than fast teams push it (0.80 vs 0.66 in five seasons of games), so expect about 72 — more possessions mean more points in the total and more chances for the better team to separate.
AdvantageCalifornia
Where California scores: shooting
California shoots an effective 52.7% (#119); Radford allows 53.0% (#271). Expect about 53.0%, 1.7 points above an average D1 matchup — worth roughly +2.4 points per 100 possessions.
Watch for noise
3-point caution
A notable season 3-point number here (California, California's defense) is close to a coin flip going forward — the study's model of next-game 3P% barely beats guessing the D1 average. Shot volume is what actually carries: expect Radford at about 45.1% of its shots from three, California about 41.4%.
Radford has the ball
OffenseCalifornia allowsvs D1 avg
51.3% #181
49.8% #91
-1.0 pt/100
17.1% #208
16.1% #218
+0.3 pt/100
29.8% #207
30.5% #180
-0.2 pt/100
42.4% #25
36.3% #220
+0.5 pt/100
71.0% #236
—
-0.1 pt/100
Radford net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: -0.5 pts/100
California has the ball
OffenseRadford allowsvs D1 avg
52.7% #119
53.0% #271
+2.4 pt/100
15.1% #76
18.5% #73
-0.2 pt/100
26.0% #322
32.2% #267
-1.4 pt/100
36.2% #146
40.0% #301
+0.4 pt/100
77.4% #25
—
+0.4 pt/100
California net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: +1.7 pts/100

Shot diet

Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot · 2025-26 numbers
Radfordoffense vsCaliforniadefense
Share of shots by zone
Radford shoots
California allows
D-I average
FG% by zone
ZoneD-I avg
Rim56.8%#24660.8%#26058.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)42.6%#10935.2%#6339.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)39.2%#14136.7%#12338.0%
Three33.5%#19931.0%#3433.7%
Californiaoffense vsRadforddefense
Share of shots by zone
California shoots
Radford allows
D-I average
FG% by zone
ZoneD-I avg
Rim57.8%#20257.5%#13158.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)26.9%#36339.8%#19039.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)40.2%#10542.4%#31638.0%
Three36.9%#3035.5%#27933.7%
RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three

Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).

Shot volume

Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line · 2025-26 numbers
Radford
+1.0extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#136 of 365
Off reb %
29.8%
#207
Def reb %
67.8%
#267
Turnover %
17.1%
#208
Forced TO %
18.5%
#73
FT rate
42.4%
#25
FT allowed
40.0%
#301
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding−0.2
Defensive rebounding−0.5
Ball security−0.2
Forcing turnovers+1.2
Foul shots drawn+1.9
Foul shots allowed−1.2
California
−0.6extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#208 of 365
Off reb %
26.0%
#322
Def reb %
69.5%
#180
Turnover %
15.1%
#76
Forced TO %
16.1%
#218
FT rate
36.2%
#146
FT allowed
36.3%
#220
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding−1.4
Defensive rebounding+0.1
Ball security+1.1
Forcing turnovers−0.4
Foul shots drawn+0.3
Foul shots allowed−0.3

Radford has more extra scoring chances per game: +1.0 (#136 of 365) to California’s −0.6 (#208).

Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).

Rotation

Radford2025-26 numbers
ESPN hasn't posted Radford's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.
#PlayerPosClHtGP-GSMPGPPGRPGAPGTOVeFG%3P%3PA/gFT%UsageStatus
10Del JonesGSo6'3"32-3231.817.23.53.53.046.5%30.9%4.380.9%33.8%
11Dennis Parker Jr.GJr6'6"32-3229.318.35.91.32.355.8%37.7%5.065.7%33.9%
3Jaylon JohnsonGSr6'0"29-2731.311.92.83.42.146.8%32.4%7.280.0%24.2%
21Tyson BrownFSr6'9"32-3227.66.57.30.71.359.4%0.0%0.043.0%14.3%
24Lukas WallsGJr6'5"32-2623.97.92.51.11.167.6%45.5%3.275.4%15.5%
4Brennan Rigsby Jr.GSr6'3"32-319.04.62.31.30.548.1%27.9%2.775.0%14.7%
5Mari JordanGSo6'5"32-813.75.32.70.70.655.4%31.8%1.494.6%19.9%
7Frederik ErichsenFFr6'9"32-013.25.62.40.70.954.7%30.0%1.674.3%23.5%
6Louie JordanFSr6'9"29-010.94.11.40.30.454.5%36.0%3.162.5%20.9%
12Gabriel FerreiraCFr6'10"11-08.12.62.80.10.252.2%0.0%0.155.6%18.2%
30Warren Keel Jr.GFr6'0"13-06.31.00.21.00.240.6%20.0%0.4—12.3%
13Bradley LandGJr6'6"9-03.90.90.70.10.344.4%0.0%0.20.0%20.2%
31Diogo AlvesGFr6'2"0-00.00.00.00.00.0——0.0——
1Zion WalkerGSo6'2"0-00.00.00.00.00.0——0.0——
Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Tale of the tape

national rank toned left for away, right for home
RadfordCalifornia
Efficiency
107.2
111.2
110.9
105.0
70.6
68.7
—
—
Shooting
51.3%
52.7%
52.3%
50.6%
33.5%
36.9%
71.0%
77.4%
42.4%
36.2%
Ball control & glass
17.1%
15.1%
18.5%
16.1%
29.8%
26.0%
32.2%
30.5%
9.7%
7.5%
9.6%
11.1%
Style
45.4%
43.1%
38.3%
35.6%
16.6%
12.1%
45.7%
54.1%
30.0%
27.5%
Roster
3.01
2.90
6'5"
6'5.2"
—
20.5%

Offseason

roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model input
Radford
Returning minutes: 100.0%Returning production: 100.0%
ESPN hasn't posted Radford's roster for this season yet — no movement to show.

Returns 100% of last season's minutes. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026). (ESPN hasn't posted this season's roster yet -- this may still be last season's list.)

California
Returning minutes: 20.5%Returning production: 20.2%
Lost
  • Dai Dai Ames 31.9 mpg, 16.9 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
  • John Camden 30.6 mpg, 13.4 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
  • Justin Pippen 29.0 mpg, 13.4 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
  • Chris Bell 27.8 mpg, 14.2 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
  • Milos Ilic 17.3 mpg, 3.6 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
  • DeJuan Campbell 10.3 mpg, 2.2 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
Added
  • Nojus Indrusaitis from Pitt · 23.6 mpg, 9.1 ppg last season
  • Michael Cooper from Wright St · 23.4 mpg, 11.9 ppg last season
  • Jordan Ross from Georgia · 20.2 mpg, 6.5 ppg last season
  • Jake Wilkins from Georgia · 9.9 mpg, 4.8 ppg last season
  • Amier Ali from Mississippi St · 2.7 mpg, 1.2 ppg last season
  • Jorell Clark no D1 minutes last season

Returns 21% of last season's minutes; lost 4 of its top 5. Teams returning under 40% of last season's minutes have historically fallen about 0.8 points of AdjEM (n=716 team-seasons, 2022-2026).

Head-to-head

this season and last
No meetings the last two seasons.

The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — Pinnacle's spread and total (the median across books when Pinnacle has no line). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, built bottom-up from those same numbers: expected possessions times each side's opponent-adjusted points per possession, plus home court.

What these numbers mean: line shopping.