Southern Jaguars vs Drake Bulldogs basketball final score
Sun, Nov 8 · 3:00 PM ET · Knapp Center, Des Moines, IA
Non-conferenceESPN+Knapp Center, Des Moines, IA
Southern
0-2 · 0-0 conf
Efficiency #312
@
Drake
2025-26: 14-20 · 8-15 conf
Efficiency #187
Final
6875
Final score
Projected 69.7 – 80.8
SOU win 17%DRKE win 83%
MarketClose
Spread
DRKE −14.0
open DRKE −15.0
Total
151.0
open 150.5
Our line
DRKE −11.2
as of Sun, Nov 8 · 2:51 PM ET
Our play
How our line is built
each step, from an even game to our lineSpread
Even game
0.0
Drakerated 1.4 below average
−1.4
Southernrated 8.4 below average
+8.4
Home court
+4.2
Our line
DRKE −11.2
◂ Southern sideDrake side ▸
The spread is seen from the home side: a plus moves it toward Drake. Our total joins once both teams have played 3 games.
Pace & total
possessions per 40 minutesTempo, possessions per 40 minutes
Projected possessions: 71.9, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw 2025-26 season pace, Southern is the faster team (74.2, #85 of 365) and Drake the slower (67.9, #210). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (weights 0.80 vs 0.66).
Projected possessions
71.9
per team, 40 min
Market total
151.0
Market close · open 150.5
Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent
72.1#95
Southern
70.5#203
Drake
How this game plays
points this game from the four factors, vs an average D-I matchupOur line
DRKE −11.2
Four factors +13.3 · not in these stats −2.1
From the four factors
Drake has the ball+7.8
Southern has the ball−5.5
Drake has the ball
✓Shoots it welleFG% 51.4% #179 · SOU allows 59.1% #300+5.3
✓Gets to the lineFTR 33.5% #223 · SOU allows 67.3% #344 · FT 71.4% #226+1.5
✓Wins second chancesOR% 26.6% #310 · SOU allows 45.2% #334+1.3
✗Coughs it upTO% 15.0% #65 · SOU forces 21.6% #78 · ~13 turnovers−0.3
Southern has the ball
✗Tough shooting lookeFG% 43.9% #271 · DRKE allows 52.6% #246−2.6
✗Coughs it upTO% 27.0% #340 · DRKE forces 14.6% #315 · ~15 turnovers−2.4
✗Few second chancesOR% 31.4% #177 · DRKE allows 29.9% #155−0.4
✗Few trips to the lineFTR 28.9% #254 · DRKE allows 32.0% #102 · FT 78.8% #58−0.1
Shot diet
Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot · 2025-26 numbersSouthernoffense vsDrakedefense
Share of shots by zone
Southern shoots
40.9
2.2
24.7
32.3
Drake allows
32.7
7.1
17.4
42.8
D-I average
38.0
7.9
12.4
41.6
FG% by zone
| Zone | D-I avg | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Rim | 44.7%#306 | 62.4%#309 | 58.0% |
| Short 2 (≤9 ft) | 50.0%#79 | 39.1%#159 | 38.0% |
| Mid 2 (10 ft+) | 39.1%#132 | 34.7%#66 | 34.9% |
| Three | 31.3%#189 | 36.4%#323 | 32.3% |
Drakeoffense vsSoutherndefense
Share of shots by zone
Drake shoots
32.3
5.6
17.1
45.0
Southern allows
42.7
9.3
8.0
40.0
D-I average
38.0
7.9
12.4
41.6
FG% by zone
| Zone | D-I avg | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Rim | 59.8%#125 | 68.8%#284 | 58.0% |
| Short 2 (≤9 ft) | 43.9%#83 | 42.9%#210 | 38.0% |
| Mid 2 (10 ft+) | 39.5%#132 | 50.0%#269 | 34.9% |
| Three | 34.0%#172 | 45.5%#332 | 32.3% |
RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three
Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).
Shot volume
Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line · 2025-26 numbersSouthern
−18.3extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#348 of 365
Off reb %
31.4%
#177
Def reb %
54.8%
#334
Turnover %
27.0%
#340
Forced TO %
21.6%
#78
FT rate
28.9%
#254
FT allowed
67.3%
#344
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding−0.1
Defensive rebounding−4.5
Ball security−6.2
Forcing turnovers+2.4
Foul shots drawn−2.2
Foul shots allowed−7.7
Drake
−0.8extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#214 of 365
Off reb %
26.6%
#310
Def reb %
70.1%
#155
Turnover %
15.0%
#65
Forced TO %
14.6%
#315
FT rate
33.5%
#223
FT allowed
32.0%
#102
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding−1.2
Defensive rebounding+0.2
Ball security+1.2
Forcing turnovers−1.4
Foul shots drawn−0.4
Foul shots allowed+0.8
Drake has more extra scoring chances per game: −0.8 (#214 of 365) to Southern’s −18.3 (#348).
Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).
Rotation
Who has been playing, and who has notSouthern2026-27 numbers through Sun, Nov 8 · last game: TCU, Nov 6
| # | Player | Pos | Cl | Ht | GP-GS | MPG | Min/40, last 8 | Last 3 vs before | Status | PPG | RPG | APG | TOV | eFG% | 3P% | 3PA/g | FT% | Usage |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | G | Jr | 5'10" | 3-0 | 25.0 | 24 | — | Bench | 9.0 | 1.0 | 4.3 | 3.7 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 3.3 | 66.7% | 27.4% | |
| 5 | G | Sr | 6'5" | 3-3 | 21.7 | 15 | — | Started last | 7.0 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 1.3 | 47.2% | 42.9% | 2.3 | 100.0% | 20.1% | |
| 1 | G | Sr | 6'4" | 3-0 | 20.7 | 24 | — | Bench | 9.3 | 1.7 | 0.3 | 0.7 | 57.7% | 50.0% | 2.0 | 86.7% | 19.6% | |
| 23 | F | So | 6'7" | 3-0 | 20.7 | 18 | — | Bench | 8.0 | 3.3 | 0.3 | 2.0 | 60.0% | — | 0.0 | 66.7% | 22.5% | |
| 13 | G | Sr | 6'6" | 3-2 | 17.7 | 17 | — | Started last | 1.3 | 2.3 | 0.3 | 1.7 | 40.0% | — | 0.0 | 0.0% | 11.4% | |
| 4 | F | Sr | 6'8" | 3-1 | 15.3 | 12 | — | Bench | 6.0 | 4.0 | 0.7 | 1.0 | 35.3% | 0.0% | 1.0 | 85.7% | 28.0% | |
| 2 | G | Jr | 6'3" | 3-2 | 14.3 | 20 | — | Started last | 4.0 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 1.7 | 41.7% | 0.0% | 0.7 | 40.0% | 24.9% | |
| 0 | G | Sr | 6'3" | 2-1 | 16.0 | — | — | 6.5 | 2.0 | 3.0 | 0.5 | 45.5% | 40.0% | 2.5 | 100.0% | 23.6% | ||
| 9 | G | Fr | 6'2" | 3-1 | 10.0 | 4 | — | Bench | 2.7 | 2.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 37.5% | 25.0% | 2.7 | 100.0% | 18.0% | |
| 11 | G | Jr | 6'0" | 3-2 | 10.0 | — | — | 2.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 2.0 | 42.9% | 0.0% | 0.3 | — | 24.2% | ||
| 35 | C | Sr | 6'10" | 3-0 | 8.7 | 2 | — | Bench | 1.3 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 66.7% | — | 0.0 | — | 12.6% | |
| 8 | G | So | 6'6" | 3-0 | 6.7 | 8 | — | Bench | 2.3 | 0.3 | 0.0 | 0.7 | 87.5% | 50.0% | 0.7 | — | 16.3% | |
| 7 | G | So | 6'6" | 3-0 | 6.3 | 9 | — | Bench | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.0 | 0.7 | 28.6% | — | 0.0 | 100.0% | 27.6% | |
| 6 | G | Fr | 6'2" | 2-0 | 7.5 | — | — | 4.0 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 2.0 | 37.5% | 0.0% | 1.0 | 100.0% | 46.4% | ||
| 10 | C | So | 6'10" | 2-3 | 7.5 | — | — | 4.5 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 1.0 | 60.0% | — | 0.0 | 75.0% | 32.6% | ||
| 24 | C | Sr | 7'0" | 3-0 | 2.3 | — | — | 0.0 | 0.3 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0% | — | 0.0 | — | 7.9% |
Competitive minutes leave out garbage time (provisional rule: a second-half lead of 25+ inside 15:00, 20+ inside 10:00, 15+ inside 5:00 or 10+ inside 2:00, held to the end) and are shown per 40 minutes. Status says only whether a player appeared; the reason is not published.
Trends
Results against the closing spread and total, last ten games, entering this gameSouthern
Against the spread
Season
1-1
Home
0-0
Road
1-1
Last 10
1-1
avg cover −6.2
Missed the spread in the last game
Over / under
Season
1-1
Home
0-0
Road
1-1
Last 10
1-1
avg vs total +2.0
Over in the last game
Last 10 games, newest first
| Date | Opponent | Site | Result | Total | PPP for | PPP vs | Pace | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 6 | TCU | A | L 54–106 | +27.0 | L−25.0 | 153.0 | O160 | 74.1 | 145.5 | 72.8 |
| Nov 2 | SMU | A | L 72–85 | +25.5 | W+12.5 | 160.0 | U157 | 95.3 | 112.5 | 75.6 |
| Mar 14 | Prairie View | N | L 66–72 | −3.5 | L−9.5 | 145.0 | U138 | 100.2 | 109.3 | 65.9 |
| Mar 13 | Florida A&M | N | W 73–70 | −2.0 | W+1.0 | 140.5 | O143 | 101.9 | 97.7 | 71.6 |
| Mar 12 | AR-Pine Bluff | N | W 84–81 | −5.0 | L−2.0 | 150.5 | O165 | 128.4 | 123.9 | 65.4 |
| Mar 5 | Alabama A&M | A | W 88–85 | −1.0 | W+2.0 | 145.0 | O173 | 121.1 | 117.0 | 72.7 |
| Mar 3 | Alabama St | A | W 71–64 | −1.0 | W+6.0 | 153.0 | U135 | 100.0 | 90.2 | 71.0 |
| Feb 28 | Bethune | H | L 79–82 | −2.0 | L−5.0 | 153.0 | O161 | 106.6 | 110.6 | 74.1 |
| Feb 26 | Florida A&M | H | L 71–82 | −9.0 | L−20.0 | 146.5 | O153 | 100.9 | 116.6 | 70.3 |
| Feb 21 | Grambling | H | W 87–73 | −5.5 | W+8.5 | 143.0 | O160 | 116.6 | 97.8 | 74.6 |
Drake
Against the spread
Season
10-21-1
Home
3-12
Road
3-7-1
Last 10
2-7-1
avg cover −3.1
Missed the spread in the last gameCovered 2 of 8 as an underdog, 1 push
Over / under
Season
18-14
Home
9-6
Road
6-5
Last 10
5-5
avg vs total +0.5
Under in the last gameOver in 3 of 8 as an underdog
Last 10 games, newest first
| Date | Opponent | Site | Result | Total | PPP for | PPP vs | Pace | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 4 | Central College Dutch | H | W 101–48 | — | — | — | — | 139.3 | 66.2 | 72.5 |
| Mar 7 | UIC | N | L 51–72 | +4.5 | L−16.5 | 143.5 | U123 | 82.1 | 115.9 | 62.1 |
| Mar 6 | Belmont | N | W 100–79 | +12.5 | W+33.5 | 153.5 | O179 | 138.6 | 109.5 | 72.2 |
| Mar 5 | S Illinois | N | W 67–63 | +4.5 | W+8.5 | 138.0 | U130 | 104.0 | 97.8 | 64.4 |
| Mar 1 | Northern Iowa | H | L 53–75 | +4.0 | L−18.0 | 137.5 | U128 | 84.2 | 119.1 | 63.0 |
| Feb 25 | Valparaiso | A | L 71–74 | +3.0 | P0.0 | 147.5 | U145 | 111.6 | 116.3 | 63.6 |
| Feb 18 | S Illinois | H | L 61–66 | +1.5 | L−3.5 | 150.0 | U127 | 86.4 | 93.5 | 70.6 |
| Feb 15 | Northern Iowa | A | L 62–86 | +8.5 | L−15.5 | 138.5 | O148 | 94.5 | 131.0 | 65.6 |
| Feb 12 | UIC | H | L 70–80 | −1.0 | L−11.0 | 146.5 | O150 | 106.7 | 122.0 | 65.6 |
| Feb 9 | Valparaiso | H | L 76–81 | −3.5 | L−8.5 | 144.5 | O157 | 113.9 | 121.4 | 66.7 |
Records vs the closing line describe the past; ten games is a small sample.
Team comparison
national rank toned left for away, right for homeSouthernDrake
Efficiency
100.9
106.6
111.8
108.3
72.1
70.5
13.8
—
Shooting
43.9%
51.4%
42.7%
51.7%
31.3%
34.0%
78.8%
71.4%
28.9%
33.5%
Ball control & glass
27.0%
15.0%
21.6%
14.6%
31.4%
26.6%
45.2%
29.9%
18.2%
8.8%
13.4%
8.6%
Style
28.1%
45.7%
39.7%
38.1%
15.1%
10.4%
55.6%
51.6%
67.3%
28.6%
Roster
3.02
3.53
6'4.5"
6'4.7"
12.5%
45.6%
Offseason
roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model inputSouthern
Returning minutes: 1.5%Returning production: 1.1%
Lost
- Michael Jacobs 30.2 mpg, 16.3 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- DaMariee Jones 22.4 mpg, 8.7 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Cam Amboree 22.2 mpg, 7.9 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Terrance Dixon Jr. 20.5 mpg, 9.0 ppg · transferred to Georgia St
- Fazl Oshodi 20.3 mpg, 8.9 ppg · transferred to Marshall
- Brandon Hardy 18.4 mpg, 3.7 ppg · transferred to Grambling
Added
- Justin Page from Niagara · 21.1 mpg, 8.5 ppg last season
- Ibrahim Olajuwon from FIU · 14.2 mpg, 4.0 ppg last season
- Malik Ferguson from Tennessee Tech · 12.5 mpg, 3.7 ppg last season
- Daniel Dormu from Tarleton St · 11.8 mpg, 3.4 ppg last season
- R'Chaun King from Alabama St · 11.6 mpg, 4.5 ppg last season
- Noah Boyde from Western KY · 8.0 mpg, 1.8 ppg last season
Returns 2% of last season's minutes; lost 5 of its top 5 (2 transferred). Teams returning under 40% of last season's minutes have historically fallen about 0.8 points of AdjEM (n=716 team-seasons, 2022-2026).
Drake
Returning minutes: 45.6%Returning production: 39.9%
Lost
- Jalen Quinn 33.6 mpg, 19.7 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Okku Federiko 23.3 mpg, 8.6 ppg · transferred to Northwestern
- Jaehshon Thomas 20.7 mpg, 8.6 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Isaiah Carr 11.0 mpg, 3.5 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Braden Appelhans 10.9 mpg, 4.2 ppg · transferred to Xavier
- Wilguens Jr. Exacte 10.3 mpg, 3.9 ppg · transferred to Mount St Marys
Added
- Gabe Oldham from Denver · 25.6 mpg, 5.6 ppg last season
- Jon Carroll from Morehead St · 24.6 mpg, 11.2 ppg last season
- Dre Kindell from Wichita St · 17.3 mpg, 5.9 ppg last season
- Bryson Bahl no D1 minutes last season
- Justin Burns no D1 minutes last season
- LJ Rush no D1 minutes last season
Returns 46% of last season's minutes; lost 2 of its top 5 (1 transferred).
Line history
Market line, home spread or game totalLines by book
| Book | Spread (home) open → now | Total open → now | ML home | ML away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | -12.5→-13.5-115 | 150.5→151.5o-105 u-115 | -1050 | +675 |
| FanDuel | -12.5→-13.5-120 | 150.5→151.5o-110 u-110 | -1450 | +810 |
| BetMGM | -12.5→-14.5-105 | 150.5o-115 u-105 | -1200 | +725 |
| BetRivers | -13.5-114 | 151.5o-107 u-115 | -1250 | +650 |
| Caesars | -12.5→-14-110 | 150.5→151.5o-110 u-110 | -1000 | +650 |
| Fanatics | -12.5→-14-110 | 150.5→151o-110 u-110 | -1200 | +750 |
| BetOnline | -13.5→-14-108 | 151.5→151o-105 u-115 | — | — |
| Bovada | -13.5→-14-120 | 151→150.5o-110 u-110 | -1200 | +700 |
| theScore Bet | -12.5→-14.5-105 | 150.5→151.5o-105 u-115 | -1400 | +750 |
| Hard Rock | -12.5→-13.5-120 | 150.5→151.5o-105 u-115 | -1300 | +650 |
| Kalshi | -13.5-122 | 151.5o+100 u-104 | -1011 | +900 |
| Polymarket | -13.5→-14.5+108 | 151.5o+104 u-108 | -1011 | +900 |
| Novig | -14.5+106 | 150.5→— | -953 | +852 |
DraftKings
FanDuel
BetMGM
BetRivers
Caesars
Fanatics
BetOnline
Bovada
theScore Bet
Hard Rock
Kalshi
Polymarket
Novigopen = first-sighted line for this event · now = latest capture
Head-to-head
this season and lastNo meetings the last two seasons.
More games on Sun, Nov 8
- Iona at St John's · 12:00 PM ET
- Arkansas vs Virginia · 1:00 PM ET
- Fairfield at Bryant · 1:00 PM ET
- Manhattan at Maine · 1:00 PM ET
- Sacred Heart at New Hampshire · 1:00 PM ET
- Marist at UMass Lowell · 1:00 PM ET
- SE Missouri at South Carolina · 1:00 PM ET
- Princeton at Siena · 1:00 PM ET
- Butler at Boise St · 2:00 PM ET
- Brown at Lehigh · 2:00 PM ET
- C Connecticut at Dartmouth · 2:00 PM ET
- Quinnipiac at Vermont · 2:00 PM ET
- Campbell at W Michigan · 2:00 PM ET
- Green Bay at St Thomas · 2:00 PM ET
- Merrimack at UAlbany · 2:00 PM ET
- Idaho St at Air Force · 3:00 PM ET
- Western KY at Tennessee Tech · 3:00 PM ET
- Rider at Binghamton · 4:00 PM ET
- Saint Peter's at NJIT · 4:00 PM ET
- Saint Mary's vs Nevada · 4:30 PM ET
- Richmond vs Temple · 5:00 PM ET
- N Dakota St at Bakersfield · 6:00 PM ET
- Norfolk St at William & Mary · 6:00 PM ET
- Incarnate Word at UTEP · 7:00 PM ET
- Pitt vs Penn State · 8:00 PM ET
- California vs Houston · 8:30 PM ET
- UT Arlington at Hawai'i · 10:00 PM ET
- Wichita St vs USC · 11:00 PM ET
The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — the market spread and total (the median across books when no market line is up). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, from our line: the same view our bets are made from.
What these numbers mean: line shopping.