CBB Matchups

Every D1 game with tempo-free ratings, four factors and market lines, one place.

College basketball is being built for the 2026-27 season (tip-off Nov 3). What's here fills in as games are played.

Non-conferenceExtraMile Arena, Boise, ID

Butler

Efficiency #87

2025-26: 16-16 · 7-14 conf

Boise St

Efficiency #63

2025-26: 20-12 · 12-9 conf

Sun, Nov 8 · TBD

72.7

win 31%

Projected

78.5

win 69%

No line posted yet.

Model: BOIS −5.8 · total 151.2 · ratings as of Sat, Oct 3

Preseason ratings start from 2025-26's final adjusted ratings, regressed toward the D1 average. The stats below are 2025-26's too; both update once 2026-27 games are played.

How the projection is built

each step, from an average D-I game to this one

Projected total

Average D-I game

148.2

PaceAdjusted tempo: Boise St 67.2, Butler 69.3 → 68.3 possessions

−0.1

Boise St offense vs Butler defense

+2.5

Butler offense vs Boise St defense

+0.6

Projected total

151.2

Axis starts at 146 pointsPoints added or removed at each step

Projected margin

Even game

0.0

Boise St offense vs Butler defense

+2.5

Butler offense vs Boise St defense

−0.6

Home court+2.9 points per 100 possessions to the home offense, −2.9 to the visitors

+3.9

Boise St by 5.8

5.8

Butler side ◂▸ Boise St side

Steps are rounded to one decimal, so they can differ from the total by 0.1. The margin is the same build seen from the home side; positive numbers help Boise St.

Pace & total

possessions per 40 minutes

Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes

Projected possessions: 68.3, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw 2025-26 season pace, Butler is the faster team (70.0, #95 of 365) and Boise St the slower (66.6, #262). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (study weights 0.80 vs 0.66).

Projected possessions

68.3

per team, 40 min

Projected total

151.2

model

Projected team totals

72.7 / 78.5

Butler / Boise St

Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent

69.3#97

Butler

67.2#270

Boise St

How this game plays

what the study found each side's numbers actually do when these two teams meet

AdvantageButler

Where Butler scores: ball control

Butler turns it over on 15.9% of possessions (#132); Boise St forces turnovers on 14.5% of opponent possessions (#318). Expect about 14.9%, 1.9 points below an average D1 matchup — worth roughly +2.3 points per 100 possessions.

ClashButler

Style clash: ball movement

Butler assists on 57.2% of its made baskets; Boise St breaks up passing offenses (assists on 45.1% allowed) (D1 average 52.4%). Expect about 50.8% — the offense's habit usually carries a bit more weight (0.65 vs 0.65).

ClashBoise St

Strength vs strength: free-throw rate

Boise St (#23 in free-throw rate) against Butler (#6 in the same stat allowed) — both rank inside the national top 60. Expect about 32.6%. Historically Butler's own number has carried a bit more weight in that exchange (0.50 vs 0.61).

ClashButler

Strength vs strength: offensive rebounding

Butler (#58 in offensive rebounding) against Boise St (#3 in the same stat allowed) — both rank inside the national top 60. Expect about 30.0%. Historically Butler's own number has carried a bit more weight in that exchange (0.70 vs 0.49).

Butler has the ball

OffenseBoise St allowsvs D1 avg

50.9% #199

52.7% #250

+0.7 pt/100

15.9% #132

14.5% #318

+2.3 pt/100

34.6% #58

23.6% #3

-0.2 pt/100

42.1% #29

32.1% #108

+0.2 pt/100

71.9% #210

—

-0.0 pt/100

Butler net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: +3.0 pts/100

Boise St has the ball

OffenseButler allowsvs D1 avg

52.2% #138

51.9% #208

+1.2 pt/100

16.9% #201

15.1% #275

+1.2 pt/100

33.2% #85

30.0% #163

+1.1 pt/100

42.7% #23

24.9% #6

-0.3 pt/100

78.7% #9

—

+0.6 pt/100

Boise St net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: +3.7 pts/100

Shot diet

Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot · 2025-26 numbers

Butleroffense vsBoise Stdefense

Share of shots by zone

Butler shoots

45.1

6.1

14.4

34.3

Boise St allows

35.0

9.0

19.4

36.6

D-I average

38.5

6.4

15.8

39.3

FG% by zone

Zone			D-I avg
Rim	57.3%#216	60.2%#238	58.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)	36.2%#265	39.7%#184	39.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)	36.9%#225	41.9%#295	38.0%
Three	32.7%#242	34.4%#213	33.7%

Boise Stoffense vsButlerdefense

Share of shots by zone

Boise St shoots

37.0

7.3

12.3

43.4

Butler allows

38.3

7.0

16.9

37.8

D-I average

38.5

6.4

15.8

39.3

FG% by zone

Zone			D-I avg
Rim	56.8%#248	62.3%#305	58.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)	46.9%#39	47.7%#337	39.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)	37.6%#198	33.6%#39	38.0%
Three	34.3%#151	33.3%#141	33.7%

RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three

Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).

Shot volume

Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line · 2025-26 numbers

Butler

+5.5extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#16 of 365

Off reb %

34.6%

#58

Def reb %

70.0%

#163

Turnover %

15.9%

#132

Forced TO %

15.1%

#275

FT rate

42.1%

#29

FT allowed

24.9%

Where the chances come from (per game)

Offensive rebounding+1.3

Defensive rebounding+0.2

Ball security+0.6

Forcing turnovers−1.1

Foul shots drawn+1.8

Foul shots allowed+2.7

Boise St

+4.3extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#32 of 365

Off reb %

33.2%

#85

Def reb %

76.4%

Turnover %

16.9%

#201

Forced TO %

14.5%

#318

FT rate

42.7%

#23

FT allowed

32.1%

#108

Where the chances come from (per game)

Offensive rebounding+0.9

Defensive rebounding+2.3

Ball security−0.1

Forcing turnovers−1.5

Foul shots drawn+2.0

Foul shots allowed+0.8

Butler has more extra scoring chances per game: +5.5 (#16 of 365) to Boise St’s +4.3 (#32).

Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).

Rotation

Butler2025-26 numbers

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
11	Finley Bizjack	G	Jr	6'4"	31-31	34.0	17.1	2.2	2.5	1.7	51.4%	34.9%	6.3	85.0%	27.9%
7	Jamie Kaiser Jr.	G	So	6'6"	30-29	29.0	9.5	4.3	1.0	0.7	52.4%	34.5%	3.9	75.8%	18.3%
21	Yohan Traore	F	Sr	6'11"	32-0	19.6	8.3	3.0	0.8	0.6	55.5%	20.0%	0.5	70.9%	21.8%
13	Drayton Jones	C	Jr	6'11"	32-32	19.5	6.3	4.6	1.4	0.7	58.6%	0.0%	0.0	72.0%	16.9%
1	Evan Haywood	G	So	6'4"	29-3	19.4	7.2	1.9	1.2	0.4	49.7%	35.9%	5.3	75.0%	22.1%
8	Yame Butler	G	Sr	6'5"	31-2	13.6	4.2	1.2	1.4	0.7	50.5%	28.9%	1.2	74.3%	18.9%
4	Efeosa Oliogu-Elabor	F	Fr	6'6"	25-10	16.4	5.0	2.2	2.0	1.4	41.9%	10.5%	0.8	62.1%	24.0%
23	Azavier Robinson	G	Fr	6'2"	22-15	18.3	6.1	1.9	2.5	1.9	53.5%	43.3%	1.4	71.1%	22.6%
0	Jackson Keith	F	Fr	6'5"	26-0	8.6	2.0	1.7	0.2	0.2	50.0%	29.4%	0.7	57.1%	13.6%
2	Jalen Jackson	G	Sr	6'2"	6-6	22.5	9.5	3.5	3.8	3.0	53.5%	40.0%	0.8	57.9%	27.6%
6	Jack McCaffery	F	Fr	6'9"	9-0	9.6	2.8	1.6	0.4	0.4	47.5%	21.4%	1.6	75.0%	17.3%
3	Ethan McComb	G	Jr	6'1"	6-0	1.2	0.3	0.0	0.3	0.0	100.0%	—	0.0	—	7.7%
35	Bryson Cardinal	F	Fr	6'7"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—
39	Kevin Ndzie	C	Jr	7'1"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Boise St2025-26 numbers

ESPN hasn't posted Boise St's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
13	Andrew Meadow	F	Jr	6'7"	32-32	30.0	12.1	3.6	1.0	0.9	59.4%	38.6%	3.6	65.5%	21.4%
4	Dylan Andrews	G	Sr	6'3"	32-32	29.3	12.5	2.5	3.2	2.1	45.7%	31.3%	4.6	88.7%	27.5%
22	Javan Buchanan	F	Sr	6'7"	31-31	27.9	12.6	5.0	1.5	1.1	48.0%	31.7%	3.3	83.6%	26.4%
20	Drew Fielder	C	Jr	6'11"	32-30	23.7	14.7	5.7	1.3	1.7	60.8%	40.9%	2.9	78.5%	33.2%
5	RJ Keene II	G	Sr	6'7"	31-24	22.2	2.6	4.6	1.9	0.5	50.0%	34.5%	1.8	50.0%	8.5%
1	Aginaldo Neto	G	Fr	6'3"	32-2	19.7	4.3	1.4	1.9	1.6	43.3%	32.6%	1.4	71.9%	17.9%
6	Pearson Carmichael	F	So	6'7"	31-6	19.1	7.9	3.1	0.8	1.0	50.5%	30.5%	3.8	82.8%	25.4%
9	Dominic Parolin	F	Sr	6'9"	32-3	17.0	5.5	4.7	0.6	0.8	54.3%	29.2%	0.8	81.0%	18.6%
16	Spencer Ahrens	F	Fr	6'10"	32-0	13.0	4.9	2.3	0.7	1.0	52.8%	35.5%	1.9	71.9%	24.7%
3	Bhan Buom	F	Fr	6'8"	20-0	4.5	1.8	0.6	0.3	0.3	70.0%	40.0%	0.5	58.3%	21.0%
0	Julian Bowie	G	So	6'3"	8-0	5.9	1.0	0.1	0.3	0.6	44.4%	33.3%	0.8	—	17.0%
11	Rayzhon Bergersen	G	Jr	6'2"	6-0	2.0	0.3	0.2	0.3	0.0	100.0%	—	0.0	—	4.9%
30	Ethan Lathan	F	Fr	6'10"	5-0	2.2	1.8	1.0	0.0	0.0	60.0%	—	0.0	75.0%	36.9%
21	Brennan Ramirez	G	Sr	6'2"	2-0	1.5	1.5	0.0	0.0	0.0	150.0%	100.0%	0.5	—	20.5%
23	Noah Bendinger	G	Fr	6'4"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Butler2025-26 numbers

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
11	Finley Bizjack	G	Jr	6'4"	31-31	34.0	17.1	2.2	2.5	1.7	51.4%	34.9%	6.3	85.0%	27.9%
7	Jamie Kaiser Jr.	G	So	6'6"	30-29	29.0	9.5	4.3	1.0	0.7	52.4%	34.5%	3.9	75.8%	18.3%
21	Yohan Traore	F	Sr	6'11"	32-0	19.6	8.3	3.0	0.8	0.6	55.5%	20.0%	0.5	70.9%	21.8%
13	Drayton Jones	C	Jr	6'11"	32-32	19.5	6.3	4.6	1.4	0.7	58.6%	0.0%	0.0	72.0%	16.9%
1	Evan Haywood	G	So	6'4"	29-3	19.4	7.2	1.9	1.2	0.4	49.7%	35.9%	5.3	75.0%	22.1%
8	Yame Butler	G	Sr	6'5"	31-2	13.6	4.2	1.2	1.4	0.7	50.5%	28.9%	1.2	74.3%	18.9%
4	Efeosa Oliogu-Elabor	F	Fr	6'6"	25-10	16.4	5.0	2.2	2.0	1.4	41.9%	10.5%	0.8	62.1%	24.0%
23	Azavier Robinson	G	Fr	6'2"	22-15	18.3	6.1	1.9	2.5	1.9	53.5%	43.3%	1.4	71.1%	22.6%
0	Jackson Keith	F	Fr	6'5"	26-0	8.6	2.0	1.7	0.2	0.2	50.0%	29.4%	0.7	57.1%	13.6%
2	Jalen Jackson	G	Sr	6'2"	6-6	22.5	9.5	3.5	3.8	3.0	53.5%	40.0%	0.8	57.9%	27.6%
6	Jack McCaffery	F	Fr	6'9"	9-0	9.6	2.8	1.6	0.4	0.4	47.5%	21.4%	1.6	75.0%	17.3%
3	Ethan McComb	G	Jr	6'1"	6-0	1.2	0.3	0.0	0.3	0.0	100.0%	—	0.0	—	7.7%
35	Bryson Cardinal	F	Fr	6'7"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—
39	Kevin Ndzie	C	Jr	7'1"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Trends

Last 10 games of 2025-26

Butler

Against the spread

Season

16-15-1

Home

8-8-1

Road

6-5

Last 10

5-5

avg cover −2.1

Missed the spread in the last gameCovered 4 of 8 as an underdog

Over / under

Season

19-12-1

Home

9-7-1

Road

8-3

Last 10

6-4

avg vs total +0.9

Over 2 straightOver in 6 of 8 as an underdog

Last 10 games, newest first

Date	Opponent	Site	Result			Total		PPP for	PPP vs	Pace
Mar 11	ProvidenceAdjEM #81	N	L 81–91	+2.0	L−8.0	162.5	O172	111.6	125.4	72.6
Mar 7	DePaulAdjEM #113	A	W 81–71	+4.0	W+14.0	142.5	O152	110.4	96.8	73.4
Mar 4	CreightonAdjEM #92	H	L 59–76	−2.5	L−19.5	155.5	U135	83.4	107.4	70.8
Feb 25	VillanovaAdjEM #40	A	L 73–82	+10.5	W+1.5	147.0	O155	103.9	116.7	70.2
Feb 21	XavierAdjEM #129	H	W 80–75	−4.5	W+0.5	159.5	U155	117.7	110.4	67.9
Feb 18	GeorgetownAdjEM #95	A	W 93–89	+6.0	W+10.0	147.0	O182	136.4	130.5	68.2
Feb 15	Seton HallAdjEM #56	H	L 56–63	+4.0	L−3.0	138.5	U119	83.6	94.1	67.0
Feb 11	#6UConnAdjEM #10	H	L 70–80	+11.5	W+1.5	143.5	O150	115.8	132.4	60.4
Feb 7	MarquetteAdjEM #100	A	L 55–70	+3.5	L−11.5	155.5	U125	82.2	104.6	66.9
Feb 4	ProvidenceAdjEM #81	A	L 87–97 2OT	+3.0	L−7.0	168.5	O184	110.4	123.0	78.8

Boise St

Against the spread

Season

17-13

Home

8-7

Road

7-4

Last 10

5-5

avg cover −1.9

Missed the spread in the last gameCovered 4 of 8 as a favorite

Over / under

Season

17-12-1

Home

8-6-1

Road

8-3

Last 10

7-3

avg vs total +5.8

Over 3 straightOver in 6 of 8 as a favorite

Last 10 games, newest first

Date	Opponent	Site	Result			Total		PPP for	PPP vs	Pace
Mar 11	San José StAdjEM #282	N	L 74–84	−14.5	L−24.5	146.0	O158	106.0	120.3	69.8
Mar 7	Colorado StAdjEM #88	A	W 78–67	−1.5	W+9.5	144.0	O145	127.3	109.4	61.3
Mar 3	San Diego StAdjEM #53	H	W 86–77	−1.0	W+8.0	145.0	O163	126.3	113.1	68.1
Feb 28	Fresno StAdjEM #169	A	W 69–53	−7.0	W+9.0	149.0	U122	114.9	88.3	60.0
Feb 24	WyomingAdjEM #98	H	W 72–62	−8.5	W+1.5	146.0	U134	113.1	97.4	63.7
Feb 21	San José StAdjEM #282	H	W 84–69	−17.5	L−2.5	146.0	O153	127.9	105.0	65.7
Feb 18	Utah StateAdjEM #24	A	L 56–75	+9.5	L−9.5	152.5	U131	93.0	124.5	60.2
Feb 13	UNLVAdjEM #124	H	L 83–86 OT	−10.0	L−13.0	154.0	O169	119.3	123.7	69.5
Feb 7	New MexicoAdjEM #42	A	W 91–90	+4.5	W+5.5	152.0	O181	135.0	133.5	67.4
Feb 3	NevadaAdjEM #71	H	W 91–87 OT	−6.5	L−2.5	142.0	O178	122.4	117.1	74.3

Records vs the closing line describe the past; ten games is a small sample.

Tale of the tape

national rank toned left for away, right for home

ButlerBoise St

Efficiency

112.2

113.2

107.4

105.6

69.3

67.2

—

Shooting

50.9%

52.2%

51.9%

52.7%

32.7%

34.3%

71.9%

78.7%

42.1%

42.7%

Ball control & glass

15.9%

16.9%

15.1%

14.5%

34.6%

33.2%

30.0%

23.6%

9.5%

8.6%

11.9%

9.8%

Style

34.9%

43.1%

46.6%

39.4%

15.0%

9.6%

57.2%

49.5%

32.1%

34.1%

Roster

2.54

3.02

6'6.1"

6'6.8"

83.4%

—

Offseason

roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model input

Butler

Returning minutes: 83.4%Returning production: 78.3%

Lost

Michael Ajayi 33.6 mpg, 16.4 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet

Added

Bryson Cardinal no D1 minutes last season
Kevin Ndzie no D1 minutes last season

No incoming D1 transfers are listed on ESPN's roster yet — until they are, returning shares read high.

Returns 83% of last season's minutes; lost 1 of its top 5. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026).

Boise St

Returning minutes: 100.0%Returning production: 100.0%

ESPN hasn't posted Boise St's roster for this season yet — no movement to show.

Returns 100% of last season's minutes. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026). (ESPN hasn't posted this season's roster yet -- this may still be last season's list.)

Head-to-head

this season and last

Date	Season	Result
Sat, Dec 6	2025-26	Boise St 77 – 68 Butler

The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — Pinnacle's spread and total (the median across books when Pinnacle has no line). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, built bottom-up from those same numbers: expected possessions times each side's opponent-adjusted points per possession, plus home court.

What these numbers mean: line shopping.