CBB Matchups

Every D1 game with tempo-free ratings, four factors and market lines, one place.

College basketball is being built for the 2026-27 season (tip-off Nov 3). What's here fills in as games are played.

Non-conferenceIcardo Center, Bakersfield, CA

N Dakota St

Efficiency #90

2025-26: 27-8 · 17-2 conf

Bakersfield

Efficiency #339

2025-26: 8-24 · 2-18 conf

Sun, Nov 8 · 6:00 PM ET

79.0

win 73%

Projected

71.9

win 27%

No line posted yet.

Model: NDSU −7.0 · total 150.9 · ratings as of Sat, Oct 3

Preseason ratings start from 2025-26's final adjusted ratings, regressed toward the D1 average. The stats below are 2025-26's too; both update once 2026-27 games are played.

How the projection is built

each step, from an average D-I game to this one

Projected total

Average D-I game

148.2

PaceAdjusted tempo: Bakersfield 70.2, N Dakota St 67.8 → 69.6 possessions

+2.9

Bakersfield offense vs N Dakota St defense

−5.6

N Dakota St offense vs Bakersfield defense

+5.4

Projected total

150.9

Axis starts at 140 pointsPoints added or removed at each step

Projected margin

Even game

0.0

Bakersfield offense vs N Dakota St defense

−5.6

N Dakota St offense vs Bakersfield defense

−5.4

Home court+2.9 points per 100 possessions to the home offense, −2.9 to the visitors

+4.0

N Dakota St by 7.0

7.0

N Dakota St side ◂▸ Bakersfield side

Steps are rounded to one decimal, so they can differ from the total by 0.1. The margin is the same build seen from the home side; positive numbers help Bakersfield.

Pace & total

possessions per 40 minutes

Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes

Projected possessions: 69.6, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw 2025-26 season pace, Bakersfield is the faster team (72.6, #14 of 365) and N Dakota St the slower (68.1, #196). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (study weights 0.80 vs 0.66).

Projected possessions

69.6

per team, 40 min

Projected total

150.9

model

Projected team totals

79.0 / 71.9

N Dakota St / Bakersfield

Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent

67.8#225

N Dakota St

70.2#39

Bakersfield

How this game plays

what the study found each side's numbers actually do when these two teams meet

AdvantageBakersfield

Where Bakersfield struggles: shooting

Bakersfield shoots an effective 45.7% (#355); N Dakota St allows 52.0% (#215). Expect about 48.4%, 2.9 points below an average D1 matchup — worth roughly -4.1 points per 100 possessions.

AdvantageN Dakota St

Where N Dakota St scores: shooting

N Dakota St shoots an effective 53.2% (#92); Bakersfield allows 54.0% (#301). Expect about 53.8%, 2.5 points above an average D1 matchup — worth roughly +3.6 points per 100 possessions.

TurnoversBakersfield

Bakersfield turns it over

Projected turnover rate of 19.2% is worth roughly -2.9 points per 100 possessions against Bakersfield's offense.

Pace

Tempo tug-of-war

Bakersfield averages 72.6 possessions per 40, N Dakota St 68.1. Slower teams pull the pace toward themselves more than fast teams push it (0.80 vs 0.66 in five seasons of games), so expect about 71 — more possessions mean more points in the total and more chances for the better team to separate.

DefenseBakersfield

Bakersfield's shot-blocking

Bakersfield ranks #18 nationally in block rate — one of the few defensive numbers that travels. Expect about 12.2% of N Dakota St's two-point attempts to get blocked against this defense.

GlassN Dakota St

N Dakota St owns the glass

Projected offensive rebound rate of 34.7% is worth roughly +2.6 points per 100 possessions for N Dakota St's offense.

N Dakota St has the ball

OffenseBakersfield allowsvs D1 avg

53.2% #92

54.0% #301

+3.6 pt/100

15.6% #112

17.9% #100

-0.1 pt/100

32.9% #89

35.6% #349

+2.6 pt/100

30.6% #289

42.6% #334

+0.3 pt/100

71.4% #227

—

-0.1 pt/100

N Dakota St net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: +6.3 pts/100

Bakersfield has the ball

OffenseN Dakota St allowsvs D1 avg

45.7% #355

52.0% #215

-4.1 pt/100

18.9% #316

18.7% #65

-2.9 pt/100

30.4% #181

25.5% #15

-1.4 pt/100

42.2% #27

29.2% #46

+0.0 pt/100

73.8% #142

—

+0.1 pt/100

Bakersfield net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: -8.3 pts/100

Shot diet

Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot · 2025-26 numbers

N Dakota Stoffense vsBakersfielddefense

Share of shots by zone

N Dakota St shoots

36.1

8.0

13.0

43.0

Bakersfield allows

39.9

6.4

14.1

39.6

D-I average

38.5

6.4

15.8

39.3

FG% by zone

Zone			D-I avg
Rim	60.2%#115	60.1%#228	58.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)	42.9%#105	42.6%#240	39.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)	39.5%#134	40.7%#269	38.0%
Three	35.4%#93	36.0%#305	33.7%

Bakersfieldoffense vsN Dakota Stdefense

Share of shots by zone

Bakersfield shoots

38.4

7.3

25.7

28.6

N Dakota St allows

35.5

6.0

15.5

43.1

D-I average

38.5

6.4

15.8

39.3

FG% by zone

Zone			D-I avg
Rim	55.4%#289	60.0%#225	58.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)	31.3%#339	42.7%#241	39.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)	37.0%#222	38.2%#166	38.0%
Three	29.0%#353	33.9%#173	33.7%

RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three

Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).

Shot volume

Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line · 2025-26 numbers

N Dakota St

+5.0extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#24 of 365

Off reb %

32.9%

#89

Def reb %

74.5%

#15

Turnover %

15.6%

#112

Forced TO %

18.7%

#65

FT rate

30.6%

#289

FT allowed

29.2%

#46

Where the chances come from (per game)

Offensive rebounding+0.8

Defensive rebounding+1.6

Ball security+0.8

Forcing turnovers+1.3

Foul shots drawn−1.1

Foul shots allowed+1.5

Bakersfield

−2.3extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#277 of 365

Off reb %

30.4%

#181

Def reb %

64.4%

#349

Turnover %

18.9%

#316

Forced TO %

17.9%

#100

FT rate

42.2%

#27

FT allowed

42.6%

#334

Where the chances come from (per game)

Offensive rebounding0.0

Defensive rebounding−1.6

Ball security−1.4

Forcing turnovers+0.8

Foul shots drawn+1.8

Foul shots allowed−1.9

N Dakota St has more extra scoring chances per game: +5.0 (#24 of 365) to Bakersfield’s −2.3 (#277).

Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).

Rotation

N Dakota St2025-26 numbers

ESPN hasn't posted N Dakota St's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
5	Andy Stefonowicz	G	So	6'2"	35-33	32.5	9.1	3.1	4.8	2.1	52.6%	37.7%	4.2	90.3%	18.0%
0	Trevian Carson	G	Jr	6'3"	35-34	31.6	11.9	6.5	2.9	1.6	54.9%	37.5%	3.4	80.3%	22.1%
1	Damari Wheeler-Thomas	G	Jr	6'0"	32-32	30.5	14.5	3.5	2.8	1.5	50.7%	38.3%	5.9	76.9%	27.7%
30	Markhi Strickland	G	Sr	6'6"	35-33	24.3	11.6	3.4	1.3	1.3	59.6%	0.0%	0.0	48.4%	27.0%
34	Noah Feddersen	F	Jr	6'10"	35-16	21.1	9.3	5.0	1.0	1.3	55.6%	29.3%	1.7	80.0%	24.1%
3	Tay Smith	G	Sr	6'2"	35-5	19.8	7.7	2.5	0.8	0.5	56.7%	39.1%	5.5	76.5%	21.2%
44	Treyson Anderson	F	So	6'9"	35-19	18.3	10.4	5.3	0.8	1.4	57.5%	35.8%	3.0	65.8%	32.6%
8	Emil Skytta	G	Jr	6'5"	26-0	12.1	3.7	1.8	0.7	0.3	58.6%	37.5%	0.3	40.0%	17.6%
2	Riley Massey	G	Fr	6'3"	32-1	8.6	1.4	1.0	0.5	0.3	37.0%	22.9%	1.1	71.4%	12.7%
7	Carson Smith	G	Fr	6'6"	24-2	9.9	3.0	1.3	0.2	0.3	42.4%	22.6%	1.3	91.7%	20.1%
11	Max Majerle	G	Jr	6'4"	18-0	5.5	1.0	0.9	0.5	0.4	29.5%	12.5%	0.4	100.0%	18.4%
22	Caleb Schoenrock	F	Fr	6'7"	8-0	2.3	0.3	0.5	0.1	0.1	33.3%	—	0.0	—	12.1%
13	Riley Saunders	G	Fr	5'11"	9-0	2.0	1.7	0.2	0.2	0.1	93.8%	62.5%	0.9	—	27.0%
14	Dom Clay	G	Fr	6'3"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Bakersfield2025-26 numbers

ESPN hasn't posted Bakersfield's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
15	Dailin Smith	G	Sr	6'6"	30-27	29.3	16.5	2.4	0.9	1.6	41.2%	28.0%	5.4	80.6%	32.8%
10	AJ George	G	Sr	6'5"	30-29	28.1	8.2	3.5	1.5	1.7	41.3%	20.8%	1.6	65.0%	21.7%
21	Ronald Jessamy	F	Jr	6'8"	31-23	26.0	13.5	6.6	1.2	2.8	52.8%	20.0%	0.5	67.6%	31.0%
1	Tom Mark	F	Sr	6'7"	27-19	25.0	6.7	4.2	1.0	1.0	51.7%	32.7%	2.0	68.1%	15.4%
12	Kadar Waller	G	Sr	5'11"	32-6	20.5	3.3	1.8	2.8	1.3	38.5%	29.6%	0.8	73.8%	13.0%
0	CJ Hardy	G	Sr	6'3"	22-21	28.1	12.4	3.8	2.9	2.4	50.0%	31.3%	3.0	83.2%	25.7%
2	Mike Price	G	Fr	6'3"	31-5	18.2	6.5	1.1	0.8	1.2	43.9%	32.3%	3.1	70.4%	24.8%
7	Pierre Geneste Jr.	C	Sr	6'11"	26-19	18.9	3.0	7.0	0.3	0.8	61.1%	—	0.0	36.7%	10.3%
25	Jaden Alexander	G	Jr	6'4"	20-10	19.6	9.3	3.4	0.5	1.4	47.0%	35.3%	1.7	82.9%	27.6%
5	Bentley Waller	G	Fr	6'4"	22-1	11.1	4.0	1.3	0.6	1.0	49.3%	36.8%	0.9	87.5%	22.5%
3	Dylan Purnell	G	So	6'5"	16-0	8.6	2.6	1.9	0.3	0.6	39.3%	10.0%	0.6	42.9%	23.4%
4	Caleb McCarty	F	Sr	6'8"	6-0	8.7	3.2	2.5	0.3	0.2	61.5%	—	0.0	75.0%	16.6%
40	TJ James Jr.	G	Fr	6'1"	10-0	4.0	1.0	0.6	0.2	0.0	31.3%	15.4%	1.3	0.0%	21.2%
11	Colin Darby	F	So	6'7"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

N Dakota St2025-26 numbers

ESPN hasn't posted N Dakota St's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
5	Andy Stefonowicz	G	So	6'2"	35-33	32.5	9.1	3.1	4.8	2.1	52.6%	37.7%	4.2	90.3%	18.0%
0	Trevian Carson	G	Jr	6'3"	35-34	31.6	11.9	6.5	2.9	1.6	54.9%	37.5%	3.4	80.3%	22.1%
1	Damari Wheeler-Thomas	G	Jr	6'0"	32-32	30.5	14.5	3.5	2.8	1.5	50.7%	38.3%	5.9	76.9%	27.7%
30	Markhi Strickland	G	Sr	6'6"	35-33	24.3	11.6	3.4	1.3	1.3	59.6%	0.0%	0.0	48.4%	27.0%
34	Noah Feddersen	F	Jr	6'10"	35-16	21.1	9.3	5.0	1.0	1.3	55.6%	29.3%	1.7	80.0%	24.1%
3	Tay Smith	G	Sr	6'2"	35-5	19.8	7.7	2.5	0.8	0.5	56.7%	39.1%	5.5	76.5%	21.2%
44	Treyson Anderson	F	So	6'9"	35-19	18.3	10.4	5.3	0.8	1.4	57.5%	35.8%	3.0	65.8%	32.6%
8	Emil Skytta	G	Jr	6'5"	26-0	12.1	3.7	1.8	0.7	0.3	58.6%	37.5%	0.3	40.0%	17.6%
2	Riley Massey	G	Fr	6'3"	32-1	8.6	1.4	1.0	0.5	0.3	37.0%	22.9%	1.1	71.4%	12.7%
7	Carson Smith	G	Fr	6'6"	24-2	9.9	3.0	1.3	0.2	0.3	42.4%	22.6%	1.3	91.7%	20.1%
11	Max Majerle	G	Jr	6'4"	18-0	5.5	1.0	0.9	0.5	0.4	29.5%	12.5%	0.4	100.0%	18.4%
22	Caleb Schoenrock	F	Fr	6'7"	8-0	2.3	0.3	0.5	0.1	0.1	33.3%	—	0.0	—	12.1%
13	Riley Saunders	G	Fr	5'11"	9-0	2.0	1.7	0.2	0.2	0.1	93.8%	62.5%	0.9	—	27.0%
14	Dom Clay	G	Fr	6'3"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Trends

Last 10 games of 2025-26

N Dakota St

Against the spread

Season

17-13-2

Home

7-4

Road

8-6-1

Last 10

5-5

avg cover +3.9

Missed the spread 2 straightCovered 5 of 8 as a favoriteCovered 2 of 5 with a line of 10+

Over / under

Season

14-16-2

Home

6-5

Road

7-7-1

Last 10

4-6

avg vs total −0.5

Over in the last gameOver in 3 of 8 as a favoriteOver in 3 of 5 with a line of 10+

Last 10 games, newest first

Date	Opponent	Site	Result			Total		PPP for	PPP vs	Pace
Mar 19	#3Michigan StAdjEM #11	N	L 67–92	+16.0	L−9.0	144.5	O159	92.0	126.4	72.8
Mar 8	North DakotaAdjEM #291	N	W 70–62	−11.0	L−3.0	148.0	U132	108.4	96.0	64.6
Mar 7	OmahaAdjEM #257	N	W 74–50	−8.0	W+16.0	147.0	U124	109.2	73.8	67.8
Mar 5	Oral RobertsAdjEM #314	N	W 76–65	−12.0	L−1.0	147.5	U141	113.3	96.9	67.1
Feb 28	North DakotaAdjEM #291	H	W 96–63	−12.0	W+21.0	152.5	O159	131.1	86.1	73.2
Feb 26	St ThomasAdjEM #84	A	L 62–84	+3.0	L−19.0	155.5	U146	95.1	128.8	65.2
Feb 21	Kansas CityAdjEM #359	H	W 95–59	−19.5	W+16.5	147.5	O154	123.0	76.4	77.2
Feb 18	S Dakota StAdjEM #197	A	W 74–66	−1.0	W+7.0	147.0	U140	113.0	100.8	65.5
Feb 14	North DakotaAdjEM #291	A	W 83–66	−5.5	W+11.5	150.5	U149	128.1	101.9	64.8
Feb 7	OmahaAdjEM #257	H	W 92–84	−9.5	L−1.5	144.5	O176	137.2	125.2	67.1

Bakersfield

Against the spread

Season

12-18

Home

6-9

Road

5-9

Last 10

4-6

avg cover −4.5

Missed the spread in the last gameCovered 4 of 10 as an underdogCovered 2 of 4 with a line of 10+

Over / under

Season

16-13-1

Home

7-8

Road

9-4-1

Last 10

7-3

avg vs total +5.5

Over 7 straightOver in 7 of 10 as an underdogOver in 2 of 4 with a line of 10+

Last 10 games, newest first

Date	Opponent	Site	Result			Total		PPP for	PPP vs	Pace
Mar 7	Cal PolyAdjEM #240	A	L 76–108	+9.0	L−23.0	173.0	O184	92.2	131.0	82.5
Mar 5	CSU NorthridgeAdjEM #196	H	L 84–86	+8.0	W+6.0	165.0	O170	105.7	108.2	79.5
Feb 28	Long Beach StAdjEM #267	H	L 87–88	+3.0	W+2.0	153.5	O175	117.3	118.6	74.2
Feb 26	UC San DiegoAdjEM #121	A	L 72–84	+14.5	W+2.5	149.0	O156	100.8	117.6	71.4
Feb 21	FullertonAdjEM #205	H	L 80–88	+6.0	L−2.0	161.0	O168	108.9	119.8	73.4
Feb 19	UC RiversideAdjEM #288	A	L 65–93	+7.0	L−21.0	151.5	O158	84.3	120.6	77.1
Feb 12	Hawai'iAdjEM #96	H	L 74–89	+13.5	L−1.5	151.5	O163	102.3	123.0	72.3
Feb 7	FullertonAdjEM #205	A	L 66–82	+10.0	L−6.0	158.0	U148	89.0	110.6	74.2
Feb 5	UC IrvineAdjEM #105	A	L 62–78	+17.0	W+1.0	144.5	U140	84.7	106.6	73.2
Jan 31	UC DavisAdjEM #185	H	L 72–80	+5.5	L−2.5	152.5	U152	103.4	114.9	69.6

Records vs the closing line describe the past; ten games is a small sample.

Tale of the tape

national rank toned left for away, right for home

N Dakota StBakersfield

Efficiency

110.7

102.7

106.2

114.0

67.8

70.2

—

Shooting

53.2%

45.7%

53.3%

46.6%

35.4%

29.0%

71.4%

73.8%

30.6%

42.2%

Ball control & glass

15.6%

18.9%

18.7%

17.9%

32.9%

30.4%

25.5%

35.6%

9.2%

10.4%

9.3%

9.1%

Style

42.8%

28.9%

43.2%

41.8%

11.9%

16.0%

53.0%

44.6%

31.2%

32.3%

Roster

2.81

3.37

6'4.2"

6'5.1"

—

Offseason

roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model input

N Dakota St

Returning minutes: 100.0%Returning production: 100.0%

ESPN hasn't posted N Dakota St's roster for this season yet — no movement to show.

Returns 100% of last season's minutes. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026). (ESPN hasn't posted this season's roster yet -- this may still be last season's list.)

Bakersfield

Returning minutes: 100.0%Returning production: 100.0%

ESPN hasn't posted Bakersfield's roster for this season yet — no movement to show.

Head-to-head

this season and last

Date	Season	Result
Sun, Nov 15	2026-27	Bakersfield 0 – 0 N Dakota St
Thu, Dec 11	2025-26	N Dakota St 80 – 69 Bakersfield

The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — Pinnacle's spread and total (the median across books when Pinnacle has no line). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, built bottom-up from those same numbers: expected possessions times each side's opponent-adjusted points per possession, plus home court.

What these numbers mean: line shopping.