CBB Matchups

Every D1 game with tempo-free ratings, four factors and market lines, one place.

College basketball is being built for the 2026-27 season (tip-off Nov 3). What's here fills in as games are played.
Non-conferenceMadison Square Garden, New York, NY
Iona
Efficiency #227
2025-26: 18-14 · 10-11 conf
@
St John's
Efficiency #16
2025-26: 30-7 · 21-2 conf
Sun, Nov 8 · TBD
66.3
win 7%
Projected
83.7
win 93%
No line posted yet.
Model: SJU −17.4 · total 150.0 · ratings as of Sat, Oct 3
Preseason ratings start from 2025-26's final adjusted ratings, regressed toward the D1 average. The stats below are 2025-26's too; both update once 2026-27 games are played.

How the projection is built

each step, from an average D-I game to this one
Projected total
Average D-I game
148.2
PaceAdjusted tempo: St John's 69.7, Iona 69.4 → 70.8 possessions
+5.4
St John's offense vs Iona defense
+4.8
Iona offense vs St John's defense
−8.5
Projected total
150.0
Axis starts at 140 pointsPoints added or removed at each step
Projected margin
Even game
0.0
St John's offense vs Iona defense
+4.8
Iona offense vs St John's defense
+8.5
Home court+2.9 points per 100 possessions to the home offense, −2.9 to the visitors
+4.1
St John's by 17.4
17.4
Iona side ◂▸ St John's side

Steps are rounded to one decimal, so they can differ from the total by 0.1: the total steps add to 149.9 against a projected 150.0. The margin is the same build seen from the home side; positive numbers help St John's.

Pace & total

possessions per 40 minutes
Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes

Projected possessions: 70.8, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw 2025-26 season pace, St John's is the faster team (70.6, #74 of 365) and Iona the slower (68.4, #177). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (study weights 0.80 vs 0.66).

Projected possessions
70.8
per team, 40 min
Projected total
150.0
model
Projected team totals
66.3 / 83.7
Iona / St John's
Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent
69.4#87
Iona
69.7#70
St John's

How this game plays

what the study found each side's numbers actually do when these two teams meet
AdvantageSt John's
Where St John's scores: the offensive glass
St John's rebounds 35.2% of its own misses (#43); Iona lets opponents grab 31.2% of their own misses (#212). Expect about 34.2%, 3.8 points above an average D1 matchup — worth roughly +2.3 points per 100 possessions.
AdvantageIona
Where Iona struggles: shooting
Iona shoots an effective 51.9% (#149); St John's allows 47.5% (#32). Expect about 49.7%, 1.6 points below an average D1 matchup — worth roughly -2.2 points per 100 possessions.
TurnoversIona
Iona turns it over
Projected turnover rate of 18.5% is worth roughly -2.1 points per 100 possessions against Iona's offense.
Watch for noise
3-point caution
A notable season 3-point number here (St John's's defense, Iona's defense) is close to a coin flip going forward — the study's model of next-game 3P% barely beats guessing the D1 average. Shot volume is what actually carries: expect Iona at about 40.5% of its shots from three, St John's about 36.8%.
ClashSt John's
Style match: ball movement
St John's assists on 57.9% of its made baskets; Iona allows assists on 56.5% of opponents' baskets (D1 average 52.4%). Expect about 58.7% — both habits push the same way.
TurnoversSt John's
St John's protects the ball
Projected turnover rate of 15.3% is worth roughly +1.8 points per 100 possessions for St John's's offense.
Iona has the ball
OffenseSt John's allowsvs D1 avg
51.9% #149
47.5% #32
-2.2 pt/100
17.2% #221
19.1% #44
-2.1 pt/100
27.8% #274
29.9% #154
-1.3 pt/100
29.3% #326
31.8% #100
-0.6 pt/100
70.7% #250
—
-0.2 pt/100
Iona net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: -6.4 pts/100
St John's has the ball
OffenseIona allowsvs D1 avg
51.1% #192
48.9% #64
-1.9 pt/100
14.4% #39
16.6% #178
+1.8 pt/100
35.2% #43
31.2% #212
+2.3 pt/100
40.2% #57
28.8% #40
-0.2 pt/100
72.2% #200
—
-0.0 pt/100
St John's net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: +2.0 pts/100

Shot diet

Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot · 2025-26 numbers
Ionaoffense vsSt John'sdefense
Share of shots by zone
Iona shoots
St John's allows
D-I average
FG% by zone
ZoneD-I avg
Rim55.7%#28153.8%#3858.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)37.2%#24133.6%#3639.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)39.8%#11739.0%#20138.0%
Three35.1%#10531.3%#3933.7%
St John'soffense vsIonadefense
Share of shots by zone
St John's shoots
Iona allows
D-I average
FG% by zone
ZoneD-I avg
Rim58.5%#17757.4%#12658.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)34.1%#30239.5%#17439.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)37.2%#21535.9%#10738.0%
Three33.5%#19630.6%#2533.7%
RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three

Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).

Shot volume

Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line · 2025-26 numbers
Iona
−1.2extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#242 of 365
Off reb %
27.8%
#274
Def reb %
68.8%
#212
Turnover %
17.2%
#221
Forced TO %
16.6%
#178
FT rate
29.3%
#326
FT allowed
28.8%
#40
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding−0.8
Defensive rebounding−0.2
Ball security−0.3
Forcing turnovers−0.1
Foul shots drawn−1.5
Foul shots allowed+1.7
St John's
+7.2extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#6 of 365
Off reb %
35.2%
#43
Def reb %
70.1%
#154
Turnover %
14.4%
#39
Forced TO %
19.1%
#44
FT rate
40.2%
#57
FT allowed
31.8%
#100
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding+1.6
Defensive rebounding+0.2
Ball security+1.6
Forcing turnovers+1.6
Foul shots drawn+1.3
Foul shots allowed+0.9

St John's has more extra scoring chances per game: +7.2 (#6 of 365) to Iona’s −1.2 (#242).

Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).

Rotation

Iona2025-26 numbers
#PlayerPosClHtGP-GSMPGPPGRPGAPGTOVeFG%3P%3PA/gFT%UsageStatus
5Kevon Vanderhorstat DrexelGSr6'2"33-3329.99.32.82.91.550.0%26.3%2.976.1%20.8%
95Martin Kheilat Idaho StGJr6'5"31-2729.69.12.41.20.951.7%35.3%6.178.8%18.6%
8Aiden Disuat Holy CrossFSo6'7"29-2927.410.85.10.81.650.0%29.6%2.479.7%25.4%
3Kosy AkametuGSr6'5"29-2824.311.05.00.91.547.2%30.1%3.276.7%29.1%
44Alliou FallFSo6'10"31-1318.92.74.11.11.343.9%0.0%0.150.0%13.2%
7Luke JungersFSr6'9"30-116.26.01.90.20.565.7%43.9%3.378.1%18.2%
11Sadiku Ibine Ayoat St John'sFSr6'6"30-17.71.81.00.40.349.1%31.6%0.6100.0%14.7%
22Keyshawn Mitchellat VCUFSr6'11"20-210.63.22.60.50.545.7%20.8%1.265.6%19.2%
12Oscar Hourruitiner Jr.GSo6'0"6-01.70.00.30.00.00.0%0.0%0.2—17.7%
00Ore OdutayoFFr6'8"0-00.00.00.00.00.0——0.0——
10Abram WilliamsGFr6'4"0-00.00.00.00.00.0——0.0——
2Daniel DoyleGFr6'3"0-00.00.00.00.00.0——0.0——
24Max MoshinskiGFr6'6"0-00.00.00.00.00.0——0.0——
4Micah TannenbaumGFr6'3"0-00.00.00.00.00.0——0.0——
21Nathan KirkGFr6'1"0-00.00.00.00.00.0——0.0——
13Oliver SassellaGFr6'5"0-00.00.00.00.00.0——0.0——
1Panagiotis LefasGFr6'6"0-00.00.00.00.00.0——0.0——
Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.
Transfers in: Aiden Disu (from Holy Cross), Sadiku Ibine Ayo (from St John's), Martin Kheil (from Idaho St), Keyshawn Mitchell (from VCU), Kevon Vanderhorst (from Drexel)

Tale of the tape

national rank toned left for away, right for home
IonaSt John's
Efficiency
105.8
115.2
108.5
99.2
69.4
69.7
—
—
Shooting
51.9%
51.1%
51.2%
51.5%
35.1%
33.5%
70.7%
72.2%
29.3%
40.2%
Ball control & glass
17.2%
14.4%
16.6%
19.1%
27.8%
35.2%
31.2%
29.9%
10.7%
8.6%
11.1%
10.0%
Style
45.9%
35.2%
40.3%
45.0%
11.8%
16.7%
53.7%
57.9%
31.4%
31.0%
Roster
3.25
2.24
6'6"
6'4.7"
27.4%
39.3%

Offseason

roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model input
Iona
Returning minutes: 27.4%Returning production: 24.8%
Lost
  • CJ Anthony 30.8 mpg, 13.9 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
  • Lamin Sabally 29.4 mpg, 11.0 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
  • Denver Anglin 27.2 mpg, 9.0 ppg · transferred to Merrimack
  • Toby Harris 26.2 mpg, 11.2 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
  • Keshawn Williams 11.5 mpg, 4.3 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
  • Khalil Badru 9.8 mpg, 3.5 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
Added
  • Kevon Vanderhorst from Drexel · 29.9 mpg, 9.3 ppg last season
  • Martin Kheil from Idaho St · 27.8 mpg, 8.5 ppg last season
  • Aiden Disu from Holy Cross · 24.1 mpg, 9.5 ppg last season
  • Sadiku Ibine Ayo from St John's · 6.2 mpg, 1.4 ppg last season
  • Keyshawn Mitchell from VCU · 5.9 mpg, 1.8 ppg last season
  • Ore Odutayo no D1 minutes last season

Returns 27% of last season's minutes; lost 4 of its top 5 (1 transferred). Teams returning under 40% of last season's minutes have historically fallen about 0.8 points of AdjEM (n=716 team-seasons, 2022-2026).

St John's
Returning minutes: 39.3%Returning production: 32.0%
Lost
  • Zuby Ejiofor 30.1 mpg, 16.3 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
  • Bryce Hopkins 28.8 mpg, 13.6 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
  • Oziyah Sellers 28.6 mpg, 10.3 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
  • Dillon Mitchell 28.1 mpg, 8.3 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
  • Sadiku Ibine Ayo 6.2 mpg, 1.4 ppg · transferred to Iona
Added
  • Imran Suljanovic no D1 minutes last season

No incoming D1 transfers are listed on ESPN's roster yet — until they are, returning shares read high.

Returns 39% of last season's minutes; lost 4 of its top 5. Teams returning under 40% of last season's minutes have historically fallen about 0.8 points of AdjEM (n=716 team-seasons, 2022-2026).

Head-to-head

this season and last
DateSeasonResult
Sat, Dec 132025-26Iona 64 – 91 St John's

The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — Pinnacle's spread and total (the median across books when Pinnacle has no line). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, built bottom-up from those same numbers: expected possessions times each side's opponent-adjusted points per possession, plus home court.

What these numbers mean: line shopping.