CBB Matchups
Every D1 game with tempo-free ratings, four factors and market lines, one place.
College basketball is being built for the 2026-27 season (tip-off Nov 3). What's here fills in as games are played.
Non-conferenceCapital One Arena, Washington, DC
Arkansas
Efficiency #19
2025-26: 28-9 · 16-5 conf
@
Virginia
Efficiency #15
2025-26: 30-6 · 17-4 conf
Sun, Nov 8 · 1:00 PM ET
76.8
win 35%
Projected
81.4
win 65%
No line posted yet.
Model: UVA −4.6 · total 158.2 · ratings as of Sat, Oct 3
Preseason ratings start from 2025-26's final adjusted ratings, regressed toward the D1 average. The stats below are 2025-26's too; both update once 2026-27 games are played.
How the projection is built
each step, from an average D-I game to this oneProjected total
Average D-I game
148.2
PaceAdjusted tempo: Virginia 67.1, Arkansas 70.9 → 69.8 possessions
+3.2
Virginia offense vs Arkansas defense
+3.7
Arkansas offense vs Virginia defense
+3.1
Projected total
158.2
Axis starts at 140 pointsPoints added or removed at each step
Projected margin
Even game
0.0
Virginia offense vs Arkansas defense
+3.7
Arkansas offense vs Virginia defense
−3.1
Home court+2.9 points per 100 possessions to the home offense, −2.9 to the visitors
+4.0
Virginia by 4.6
4.6
Arkansas side ◂▸ Virginia side
Steps are rounded to one decimal, so they can differ from the total by 0.1. The margin is the same build seen from the home side; positive numbers help Virginia.
Pace & total
possessions per 40 minutesTempo, possessions per 40 minutes
Projected possessions: 69.8, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw 2025-26 season pace, Arkansas is the faster team (72.8, #13 of 365) and Virginia the slower (66.4, #276). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (study weights 0.80 vs 0.66).
Projected possessions
69.8
per team, 40 min
Projected total
158.2
model
Projected team totals
76.8 / 81.4
Arkansas / Virginia
Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent
70.9#17
Arkansas
67.1#278
Virginia
How this game plays
what the study found each side's numbers actually do when these two teams meetAdvantageArkansas
Where Arkansas scores: ball control
Arkansas turns it over on 12.2% of possessions (#1); Virginia forces turnovers on 15.4% of opponent possessions (#255). Expect about 13.3%, 3.5 points below an average D1 matchup — worth roughly +4.3 points per 100 possessions.
ClashArkansas
Strength vs strength: shot-blocking exposure
Arkansas (#12 in shot-blocking exposure) against Virginia (#2 in the same stat allowed) — both rank inside the national top 60. Expect about 13.6%. Historically Virginia's own number has carried a bit more weight in that exchange (0.41 vs 0.68).
AdvantageVirginia
Where Virginia scores: the offensive glass
Virginia rebounds 37.9% of its own misses (#9); Arkansas lets opponents grab 30.9% of their own misses (#197). Expect about 35.9%, 5.5 points above an average D1 matchup — worth roughly +3.3 points per 100 possessions.
Pace
Tempo tug-of-war
Virginia averages 66.4 possessions per 40, Arkansas 72.8. Slower teams pull the pace toward themselves more than fast teams push it (0.80 vs 0.66 in five seasons of games), so expect about 70 — more possessions mean more points in the total and more chances for the better team to separate.
DefenseArkansas
Arkansas's shot-blocking
Arkansas ranks #25 nationally in block rate — one of the few defensive numbers that travels. Expect about 12.1% of Virginia's two-point attempts to get blocked against this defense.
Watch for noise
3-point caution
A notable season 3-point number here (Virginia, Arkansas, Virginia's defense) is close to a coin flip going forward — the study's model of next-game 3P% barely beats guessing the D1 average. Shot volume is what actually carries: expect Arkansas at about 33.2% of its shots from three, Virginia about 44.4%.
Arkansas has the ball
OffenseVirginia allowsvs D1 avg
56.4% #16
45.7% #8
+0.2 pt/100
12.2% #1
15.4% #255
+4.3 pt/100
32.0% #121
29.2% #120
+0.3 pt/100
35.9% #155
32.9% #129
-0.1 pt/100
75.1% #77
—
+0.2 pt/100
Arkansas net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: +4.9 pts/100
Virginia has the ball
OffenseArkansas allowsvs D1 avg
54.6% #49
51.8% #201
+3.2 pt/100
16.0% #140
15.6% #246
+1.5 pt/100
37.9% #9
30.9% #197
+3.3 pt/100
32.3% #253
31.2% #87
-0.4 pt/100
72.8% #177
—
+0.0 pt/100
Virginia net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: +7.6 pts/100
Shot diet
Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot · 2025-26 numbersArkansasoffense vsVirginiadefense
Share of shots by zone
Arkansas shoots
41.8
6.3
19.1
32.8
Virginia allows
34.2
7.9
21.0
36.8
D-I average
38.5
6.4
15.8
39.3
FG% by zone
| Zone | D-I avg | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Rim | 66.7%#10 | 50.9%#7 | 58.6% |
| Short 2 (≤9 ft) | 32.3%#325 | 38.6%#150 | 39.5% |
| Mid 2 (10 ft+) | 36.3%#258 | 35.7%#97 | 38.0% |
| Three | 38.2%#16 | 31.6%#46 | 33.7% |
Virginiaoffense vsArkansasdefense
Share of shots by zone
Virginia shoots
36.0
6.7
10.5
46.7
Arkansas allows
40.1
6.9
15.3
37.7
D-I average
38.5
6.4
15.8
39.3
FG% by zone
| Zone | D-I avg | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Rim | 60.6%#105 | 62.6%#313 | 58.6% |
| Short 2 (≤9 ft) | 45.3%#59 | 45.4%#308 | 39.5% |
| Mid 2 (10 ft+) | 38.6%#164 | 34.7%#66 | 38.0% |
| Three | 36.2%#48 | 31.8%#54 | 33.7% |
RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three
Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).
Shot volume
Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line · 2025-26 numbersArkansas
+4.1extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#35 of 365
Off reb %
32.0%
#121
Def reb %
69.1%
#197
Turnover %
12.2%
#1
Forced TO %
15.6%
#246
FT rate
35.9%
#155
FT allowed
31.2%
#87
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding+0.5
Defensive rebounding−0.1
Ball security+3.2
Forcing turnovers−0.8
Foul shots drawn+0.2
Foul shots allowed+1.0
Virginia
+2.5extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#79 of 365
Off reb %
37.9%
#9
Def reb %
70.8%
#120
Turnover %
16.0%
#140
Forced TO %
15.4%
#255
FT rate
32.3%
#253
FT allowed
32.9%
#129
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding+2.4
Defensive rebounding+0.5
Ball security+0.5
Forcing turnovers−0.9
Foul shots drawn−0.7
Foul shots allowed+0.6
Arkansas has more extra scoring chances per game: +4.1 (#35 of 365) to Virginia’s +2.5 (#79).
Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).
Rotation
Arkansas2025-26 numbers
| # | Player | Pos | Cl | Ht | GP-GS | MPG | PPG | RPG | APG | TOV | eFG% | 3P% | 3PA/g | FT% | Usage | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 | Billy Richmond III | G | Jr | 6'7" | 37-19 | 27.6 | 11.2 | 4.3 | 2.0 | 1.2 | 58.8% | 25.9% | 1.6 | 78.4% | 20.6% | |
| 5 | Jeremiah Wilkinsonat Georgia | G | Jr | 6'1" | 31-21 | 25.6 | 17.4 | 2.0 | 1.7 | 1.4 | 50.6% | 35.7% | 7.1 | 78.6% | 36.1% | |
| 21 | Cooper Bowserat Furman | F | Sr | 6'11" | 25-22 | 29.6 | 13.8 | 5.9 | 1.8 | 1.4 | 76.6% | 0.0% | 0.0 | 62.2% | 21.4% | |
| 30 | Isaiah Sealy | F | So | 6'7" | 19-0 | 6.9 | 2.9 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 50.0% | 0.0% | 0.4 | 75.0% | 21.1% | |
| 2 | Amere Brown | G | So | 5'9" | 7-0 | 1.7 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.1 | 25.0% | 26.3% | |
| 4 | Ayden Kelley | G | Jr | 5'10" | 7-0 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 75.0% | 100.0% | 0.1 | 50.0% | 14.4% | |
| 99 | Paulo Semedo | F | So | 7'1" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 1 | Abdou Toure | F | Fr | 6'5" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 0 | Caleb Ourigou | F | Fr | 6'11" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 9 | Davion Thompson | G | Fr | 6'2" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 14 | Ilia Frolov | F | Fr | 7'0" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 7 | JJ Andrews | F | Fr | 6'6" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 23 | Jordan Smith Jr. | G | Fr | 6'2" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 8 | Maper Maker | F | Fr | 7'0" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 3 | Miikka Muurinen | F | Fr | 7'0" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — |
Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.
Transfers in: Cooper Bowser (from Furman), Jeremiah Wilkinson (from Georgia)
Virginia2025-26 numbers
| # | Player | Pos | Cl | Ht | GP-GS | MPG | PPG | RPG | APG | TOV | eFG% | 3P% | 3PA/g | FT% | Usage | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 | Dallin Hall | G | Sr | 6'4" | 36-36 | 28.4 | 5.9 | 3.6 | 4.4 | 1.3 | 50.9% | 32.0% | 2.9 | 81.3% | 14.3% | |
| 28 | Thijs De Ridder | F | Fr | 6'9" | 36-36 | 27.7 | 15.6 | 6.2 | 1.6 | 1.8 | 55.9% | 35.7% | 3.1 | 70.9% | 32.5% | |
| 5 | Sam Lewis | G | Jr | 6'7" | 36-35 | 25.6 | 10.6 | 3.6 | 1.4 | 1.3 | 55.9% | 40.3% | 4.3 | 75.0% | 24.7% | |
| 2 | Chance Mallory | G | Fr | 5'10" | 36-0 | 24.1 | 9.3 | 3.7 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 50.6% | 34.5% | 3.1 | 77.5% | 23.3% | |
| 17 | Johann Grunloh | C | Fr | 7'0" | 36-36 | 21.0 | 7.1 | 5.2 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 59.0% | 35.0% | 1.7 | 55.7% | 19.5% | |
| 11 | Devin Tillis | F | Sr | 6'7" | 31-1 | 15.9 | 4.1 | 2.7 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 50.5% | 37.5% | 2.1 | 78.3% | 17.7% | |
| 12 | Elijah Gertrude | G | So | 6'4" | 17-0 | 6.2 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 45.2% | 14.3% | 0.8 | 33.3% | 20.6% | |
| 7 | Martin Carrere | G | Fr | 6'9" | 16-0 | 4.0 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 42.3% | 16.7% | 0.4 | 50.0% | 19.3% | |
| 35 | Carter Lang | F | So | 6'9" | 12-0 | 2.2 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.0 | 35.7% | 33.3% | 0.3 | 0.0% | 18.1% | |
| 13 | Desmond Roberts | G | So | 6'4" | 12-0 | 1.5 | 0.0 | 0.4 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.1 | — | 9.9% | |
| 22 | Owen Odom | G | Fr | 6'1" | 11-0 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 50.0% | 0.0% | 0.2 | — | 25.2% | |
| 21 | Silas Barksdale | F | Fr | 6'9" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — |
Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.
Arkansas2025-26 numbers
| # | Player | Pos | Cl | Ht | GP-GS | MPG | PPG | RPG | APG | TOV | eFG% | 3P% | 3PA/g | FT% | Usage | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 | Billy Richmond III | G | Jr | 6'7" | 37-19 | 27.6 | 11.2 | 4.3 | 2.0 | 1.2 | 58.8% | 25.9% | 1.6 | 78.4% | 20.6% | |
| 5 | Jeremiah Wilkinsonat Georgia | G | Jr | 6'1" | 31-21 | 25.6 | 17.4 | 2.0 | 1.7 | 1.4 | 50.6% | 35.7% | 7.1 | 78.6% | 36.1% | |
| 21 | Cooper Bowserat Furman | F | Sr | 6'11" | 25-22 | 29.6 | 13.8 | 5.9 | 1.8 | 1.4 | 76.6% | 0.0% | 0.0 | 62.2% | 21.4% | |
| 30 | Isaiah Sealy | F | So | 6'7" | 19-0 | 6.9 | 2.9 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 50.0% | 0.0% | 0.4 | 75.0% | 21.1% | |
| 2 | Amere Brown | G | So | 5'9" | 7-0 | 1.7 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.1 | 25.0% | 26.3% | |
| 4 | Ayden Kelley | G | Jr | 5'10" | 7-0 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 75.0% | 100.0% | 0.1 | 50.0% | 14.4% | |
| 99 | Paulo Semedo | F | So | 7'1" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 1 | Abdou Toure | F | Fr | 6'5" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 0 | Caleb Ourigou | F | Fr | 6'11" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 9 | Davion Thompson | G | Fr | 6'2" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 14 | Ilia Frolov | F | Fr | 7'0" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 7 | JJ Andrews | F | Fr | 6'6" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 23 | Jordan Smith Jr. | G | Fr | 6'2" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 8 | Maper Maker | F | Fr | 7'0" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 3 | Miikka Muurinen | F | Fr | 7'0" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — |
Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.
Transfers in: Cooper Bowser (from Furman), Jeremiah Wilkinson (from Georgia)
Trends
Last 10 games of 2025-26Arkansas
Against the spread
Season
23-14
Home
13-5
Road
6-4
Last 10
5-5
avg cover −0.7
Missed the spread 2 straightCovered 3 of 6 as a favoriteCovered 2 of 4 as an underdog
Over / under
Season
21-15-1
Home
11-6-1
Road
4-6
Last 10
8-2
avg vs total +14.2
Over 3 straightOver in 5 of 6 as a favoriteOver in 3 of 4 as an underdog
Last 10 games, newest first
| Date | Opponent | Site | Result | Total | PPP for | PPP vs | Pace | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 26 | #1Arizona | N | L 88–109 | +8.0 | L−13.0 | 165.5 | O197 | 110.1 | 136.4 | 79.9 |
| Mar 21 | #12High Point | N | W 94–88 | −12.0 | L−6.0 | 170.5 | O182 | 121.5 | 113.8 | 77.4 |
| Mar 19 | #13Hawai'i | N | W 97–78 | −15.0 | W+4.0 | 158.0 | O175 | 126.5 | 101.8 | 76.7 |
| Mar 15 | #22Vanderbilt | N | W 86–75 | +2.0 | W+13.0 | 164.5 | U161 | 122.6 | 107.0 | 70.1 |
| Mar 14 | Ole Miss | N | W 93–90 OT | −8.5 | L−5.5 | 158.5 | O183 | 119.7 | 115.8 | 77.7 |
| Mar 13 | Oklahoma | N | W 82–79 | −6.0 | L−3.0 | 167.0 | U161 | 117.2 | 112.9 | 70.0 |
| Mar 7 | Missouri | A | W 88–84 OT | +2.5 | W+6.5 | 161.5 | O172 | 115.1 | 109.9 | 76.4 |
| Mar 4 | Texas | H | W 105–85 | −7.0 | W+13.0 | 164.5 | O190 | 132.8 | 107.5 | 79.0 |
| Feb 28 | #7Florida | A | L 77–111 | +10.5 | L−23.5 | 170.0 | O188 | 95.3 | 137.4 | 80.8 |
| Feb 25 | Texas A&M | H | W 99–84 | −7.5 | W+7.5 | 170.0 | O183 | 128.1 | 108.7 | 77.3 |
Virginia
Against the spread
Season
17-18-1
Home
9-8
Road
5-5
Last 10
3-6-1
avg cover −0.8
Missed the spread 2 straightCovered 2 of 7 as a favorite, 1 pushCovered 0 of 4 with a line of 10+
Over / under
Season
17-19
Home
6-11
Road
4-6
Last 10
7-3
avg vs total +3.5
Over 6 straightOver in 5 of 7 as a favoriteOver in 2 of 4 with a line of 10+
Last 10 games, newest first
| Date | Opponent | Site | Result | Total | PPP for | PPP vs | Pace | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 22 | #6Tennessee | N | L 72–79 | +1.0 | L−6.0 | 136.5 | O151 | 109.8 | 120.5 | 65.5 |
| Mar 20 | #14Wright St | N | W 82–73 | −18.0 | L−9.0 | 146.5 | O155 | 126.3 | 112.4 | 64.9 |
| Mar 14 | #1Duke | N | L 70–74 | +6.5 | W+2.5 | 139.5 | O144 | 110.1 | 116.4 | 63.5 |
| Mar 13 | Miami | N | W 84–62 | −3.5 | W+18.5 | 145.0 | O146 | 134.6 | 99.3 | 62.4 |
| Mar 12 | NC State | N | W 81–74 | −7.0 | P0.0 | 152.0 | O155 | 118.2 | 108.0 | 68.5 |
| Mar 7 | Virginia Tech | H | W 76–72 | −12.0 | L−8.0 | 146.5 | O148 | 114.6 | 108.5 | 66.3 |
| Mar 3 | Wake Forest | H | W 75–70 | −14.0 | L−9.0 | 149.5 | U145 | 110.3 | 102.9 | 68.0 |
| Feb 28 | #1Duke | A | L 51–77 | +10.0 | L−16.0 | 143.0 | U128 | 83.7 | 126.4 | 60.9 |
| Feb 24 | NC State | H | W 90–61 | −6.0 | W+23.0 | 152.0 | U151 | 128.0 | 86.7 | 70.3 |
| Feb 21 | Miami | H | W 86–83 | −7.5 | L−4.5 | 146.5 | O169 | 132.7 | 128.1 | 64.8 |
Records vs the closing line describe the past; ten games is a small sample.
Tale of the tape
national rank toned left for away, right for homeArkansasVirginia
Efficiency
120.3
117.4
104.8
101.2
70.9
67.1
—
—
Shooting
56.4%
54.6%
56.0%
54.9%
38.2%
36.2%
75.1%
72.8%
35.9%
32.3%
Ball control & glass
12.2%
16.0%
15.6%
15.4%
32.0%
37.9%
30.9%
29.2%
6.7%
9.6%
6.4%
10.0%
Style
33.0%
46.7%
47.6%
40.8%
20.9%
14.1%
53.1%
58.3%
28.5%
38.2%
Roster
3.22
2.24
6'6.3"
6'6"
15.7%
72.1%
Offseason
roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model inputArkansas
Returning minutes: 15.7%Returning production: 15.1%
Lost
- Darius Acuff Jr. 34.3 mpg, 22.8 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Trevon Brazile 30.6 mpg, 12.7 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Meleek Thomas 30.5 mpg, 15.6 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- D.J. Wagner 22.3 mpg, 7.0 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Malique Ewin 21.0 mpg, 9.8 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Nick Pringle 17.9 mpg, 4.4 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
Added
- Jeremiah Wilkinson from Georgia · 24.1 mpg, 16.4 ppg last season
- Cooper Bowser from Furman · 21.1 mpg, 9.8 ppg last season
- Miikka Muurinen no D1 minutes last season
- Caleb Ourigou no D1 minutes last season
- Maper Maker no D1 minutes last season
- Paulo Semedo no D1 minutes last season
Returns 16% of last season's minutes; lost 4 of its top 5. Teams returning under 40% of last season's minutes have historically fallen about 0.8 points of AdjEM (n=716 team-seasons, 2022-2026).
Virginia
Returning minutes: 72.1%Returning production: 68.7%
Lost
- Malik Thomas 22.7 mpg, 12.4 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Ugonna Onyenso 18.7 mpg, 6.5 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Jacari White 15.4 mpg, 8.1 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
Added
- Silas Barksdale no D1 minutes last season
No incoming D1 transfers are listed on ESPN's roster yet — until they are, returning shares read high.
Returns 72% of last season's minutes; lost 1 of its top 5. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026).
Head-to-head
this season and lastNo meetings the last two seasons.
The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — Pinnacle's spread and total (the median across books when Pinnacle has no line). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, built bottom-up from those same numbers: expected possessions times each side's opponent-adjusted points per possession, plus home court.
What these numbers mean: line shopping.