CBB Matchups
Every D1 game with tempo-free ratings, four factors and market lines, one place.
College basketball is being built for the 2026-27 season (tip-off Nov 3). What's here fills in as games are played.
Non-conferenceLeede Arena, Hanover, NH
C Connecticut
Efficiency #277
2025-26: 18-12 · 12-7 conf
@
Dartmouth
Efficiency #254
2025-26: 11-16 · 5-9 conf
Sun, Nov 8 · 2:00 PM ET
72.2
win 34%
Projected
77.0
win 66%
No line posted yet.
Model: DART −4.9 · total 149.2 · ratings as of Sat, Oct 3
Preseason ratings start from 2025-26's final adjusted ratings, regressed toward the D1 average. The stats below are 2025-26's too; both update once 2026-27 games are played.
How the projection is built
each step, from an average D-I game to this oneProjected total
Average D-I game
148.2
PaceAdjusted tempo: Dartmouth 69.7, C Connecticut 66.7 → 68.0 possessions
−0.7
Dartmouth offense vs C Connecticut defense
+1.3
C Connecticut offense vs Dartmouth defense
+0.3
Projected total
149.2
Axis starts at 146 pointsPoints added or removed at each step
Projected margin
Even game
0.0
Dartmouth offense vs C Connecticut defense
+1.3
C Connecticut offense vs Dartmouth defense
−0.3
Home court+2.9 points per 100 possessions to the home offense, −2.9 to the visitors
+3.9
Dartmouth by 4.9
4.9
C Connecticut side ◂▸ Dartmouth side
Steps are rounded to one decimal, so they can differ from the total by 0.1: the total steps add to 149.1 against a projected 149.2. The margin is the same build seen from the home side; positive numbers help Dartmouth.
Pace & total
possessions per 40 minutesTempo, possessions per 40 minutes
Projected possessions: 68.0, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw 2025-26 season pace, Dartmouth is the faster team (69.2, #130 of 365) and C Connecticut the slower (65.2, #325). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (study weights 0.80 vs 0.66).
Projected possessions
68.0
per team, 40 min
Projected total
149.2
model
Projected team totals
72.2 / 77.0
C Connecticut / Dartmouth
Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent
66.7#308
C Connecticut
69.7#74
Dartmouth
How this game plays
what the study found each side's numbers actually do when these two teams meetAdvantageDartmouth
Where Dartmouth struggles: the offensive glass
Dartmouth rebounds 23.7% of its own misses (#346); C Connecticut lets opponents grab 30.4% of their own misses (#179). Expect about 25.8%, 4.6 points below an average D1 matchup — worth roughly -2.8 points per 100 possessions.
AdvantageC Connecticut
Where C Connecticut scores: ball control
C Connecticut turns it over on 16.2% of possessions (#153); Dartmouth forces turnovers on 13.8% of opponent possessions (#340). Expect about 14.6%, 2.2 points below an average D1 matchup — worth roughly +2.7 points per 100 possessions.
TurnoversDartmouth
Dartmouth protects the ball
Projected turnover rate of 15.5% is worth roughly +1.6 points per 100 possessions for Dartmouth's offense.
C Connecticut has the ball
OffenseDartmouth allowsvs D1 avg
51.6% #165
52.7% #254
+1.3 pt/100
16.2% #153
13.8% #340
+2.7 pt/100
27.5% #281
29.7% #148
-1.4 pt/100
31.2% #276
30.7% #80
-0.5 pt/100
76.7% #38
—
+0.4 pt/100
C Connecticut net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: +2.4 pts/100
Dartmouth has the ball
OffenseC Connecticut allowsvs D1 avg
51.8% #156
50.2% #113
-0.4 pt/100
17.6% #247
14.0% #336
+1.6 pt/100
23.7% #346
30.4% #179
-2.8 pt/100
38.0% #103
26.9% #22
-0.4 pt/100
74.2% #119
—
+0.2 pt/100
Dartmouth net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: -1.9 pts/100
Shot diet
Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot · 2025-26 numbersC Connecticutoffense vsDartmouthdefense
Share of shots by zone
C Connecticut shoots
34.6
6.0
24.9
34.5
Dartmouth allows
44.0
4.8
11.8
39.3
D-I average
38.5
6.4
15.8
39.3
FG% by zone
| Zone | D-I avg | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Rim | 59.0%#163 | 58.3%#156 | 58.6% |
| Short 2 (≤9 ft) | 54.1%#2 | 44.8%#291 | 39.5% |
| Mid 2 (10 ft+) | 36.8%#231 | 32.9%#27 | 38.0% |
| Three | 35.8%#69 | 34.6%#227 | 33.7% |
Dartmouthoffense vsC Connecticutdefense
Share of shots by zone
Dartmouth shoots
34.0
5.1
12.2
48.6
C Connecticut allows
41.3
7.1
12.7
38.9
D-I average
38.5
6.4
15.8
39.3
FG% by zone
| Zone | D-I avg | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Rim | 56.0%#274 | 54.5%#50 | 58.6% |
| Short 2 (≤9 ft) | 33.3%#312 | 47.7%#338 | 39.5% |
| Mid 2 (10 ft+) | 39.7%#119 | 42.0%#302 | 38.0% |
| Three | 36.1%#51 | 33.4%#146 | 33.7% |
RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three
Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).
Shot volume
Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line · 2025-26 numbersC Connecticut
−1.2extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#243 of 365
Off reb %
27.5%
#281
Def reb %
69.6%
#179
Turnover %
16.2%
#153
Forced TO %
14.0%
#336
FT rate
31.2%
#276
FT allowed
26.9%
#22
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding−0.9
Defensive rebounding+0.1
Ball security+0.4
Forcing turnovers−1.9
Foul shots drawn−1.0
Foul shots allowed+2.1
Dartmouth
−2.5extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#285 of 365
Off reb %
23.7%
#346
Def reb %
70.3%
#148
Turnover %
17.6%
#247
Forced TO %
13.8%
#340
FT rate
38.0%
#103
FT allowed
30.7%
#80
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding−2.1
Defensive rebounding+0.3
Ball security−0.6
Forcing turnovers−2.0
Foul shots drawn+0.8
Foul shots allowed+1.2
C Connecticut has more extra scoring chances per game: −1.2 (#243 of 365) to Dartmouth’s −2.5 (#285).
Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).
Rotation
C Connecticut2025-26 numbers
ESPN hasn't posted C Connecticut's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.
| # | Player | Pos | Cl | Ht | GP-GS | MPG | PPG | RPG | APG | TOV | eFG% | 3P% | 3PA/g | FT% | Usage | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Darin Smith Jr. | F | So | 6'7" | 30-30 | 32.7 | 20.7 | 5.4 | 1.2 | 1.6 | 51.9% | 37.6% | 5.0 | 89.8% | 35.9% | |
| 1 | Jay Rodgers | G | Sr | 6'3" | 30-28 | 29.2 | 11.0 | 2.2 | 6.9 | 2.7 | 48.9% | 36.2% | 3.1 | 81.7% | 27.0% | |
| 34 | Max Frazier | F | Jr | 6'9" | 30-30 | 28.2 | 12.0 | 7.2 | 0.9 | 1.3 | 65.8% | 0.0% | 0.1 | 60.0% | 22.7% | |
| 24 | James Jones | G | So | 6'6" | 26-23 | 28.8 | 4.2 | 5.6 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 42.5% | 28.6% | 1.1 | 59.1% | 11.8% | |
| 6 | Melo Sanchez | G | Sr | 6'4" | 29-26 | 24.8 | 9.6 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 59.7% | 42.8% | 4.8 | 80.0% | 21.5% | |
| 0 | Elijah Parker | G | Fr | 6'3" | 29-2 | 14.6 | 2.4 | 2.0 | 1.1 | 0.8 | 45.5% | 26.9% | 0.9 | 42.1% | 14.1% | |
| 22 | Daniel James | F | So | 6'8" | 28-5 | 12.6 | 3.5 | 3.1 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 56.3% | 31.8% | 0.8 | 73.9% | 16.2% | |
| 3 | Roddy Jones | G | Fr | 6'1" | 23-0 | 10.7 | 4.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 56.3% | 38.8% | 3.5 | 100.0% | 22.7% | |
| 13 | Ashton Reynolds | G | Fr | 6'4" | 23-1 | 10.1 | 3.7 | 2.0 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 50.8% | 31.6% | 0.8 | 81.5% | 21.6% | |
| 2 | Nico Ashley | F | Sr | 6'7" | 18-1 | 9.8 | 3.3 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 58.0% | 25.0% | 0.7 | 69.2% | 19.6% | |
| 12 | Gabe Spinelli | G | Sr | 6'3" | 11-0 | 14.7 | 4.7 | 1.7 | 1.1 | 0.9 | 53.7% | 44.4% | 0.8 | 100.0% | 19.3% | |
| 10 | Ja'Kobe Williams | G | Sr | 6'3" | 7-4 | 18.1 | 3.3 | 2.9 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 28.6% | 20.0% | 1.4 | 70.0% | 17.9% | |
| 11 | Jayden Mott | F | So | 6'8" | 14-0 | 8.9 | 1.9 | 1.9 | 0.3 | 0.8 | 47.9% | 33.3% | 0.2 | 40.0% | 18.7% | |
| 15 | Adam Fox | G | Fr | 6'5" | 2-0 | 5.5 | 1.5 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 50.0% | 33.3% | 1.5 | — | 14.0% | |
| 20 | Corsley Edwards Jr. | G | Fr | 6'2" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 23 | Rashawn Tibby | F | Fr | 6'8" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — |
Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.
Dartmouth2025-26 numbers
ESPN hasn't posted Dartmouth's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.
| # | Player | Pos | Cl | Ht | GP-GS | MPG | PPG | RPG | APG | TOV | eFG% | 3P% | 3PA/g | FT% | Usage | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Kareem Thomas | G | So | 6'5" | 26-25 | 29.2 | 15.9 | 3.0 | 1.5 | 2.3 | 53.5% | 44.7% | 4.0 | 79.5% | 30.6% | |
| 30 | Connor Amundsen | PG | So | 5'11" | 26-25 | 29.1 | 9.5 | 2.0 | 3.7 | 1.1 | 48.0% | 33.3% | 4.5 | 74.6% | 20.2% | |
| 21 | Brandon Mitchell-Day | F | Sr | 6'8" | 27-27 | 28.0 | 12.1 | 9.0 | 2.3 | 2.6 | 53.7% | 35.8% | 2.5 | 75.0% | 27.0% | |
| 22 | Jayden Williams | F | Sr | 6'6" | 26-26 | 27.3 | 11.8 | 3.9 | 1.1 | 1.9 | 54.0% | 35.6% | 6.9 | 84.8% | 25.9% | |
| 33 | Jackson Munro | F | Sr | 6'8" | 27-27 | 24.7 | 7.8 | 4.2 | 2.0 | 0.9 | 59.3% | 37.3% | 3.1 | 80.6% | 16.7% | |
| 5 | Cameron McNamee | G | So | 6'6" | 27-1 | 20.3 | 6.0 | 3.6 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 53.8% | 38.1% | 3.1 | 66.0% | 17.3% | |
| 11 | Cam Hiatt | G | Fr | 6'4" | 23-1 | 17.3 | 3.7 | 1.8 | 1.2 | 0.9 | 44.0% | 31.7% | 2.6 | 84.6% | 15.7% | |
| 23 | Nikola Abusara | G | Jr | 6'5" | 23-0 | 17.2 | 5.4 | 2.4 | 1.4 | 0.9 | 45.0% | 17.6% | 0.7 | 73.9% | 20.4% | |
| 0 | Ben Brown | G | Jr | 6'2" | 16-2 | 9.3 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 50.0% | 34.5% | 1.8 | — | 14.7% | |
| 10 | Anton Strelnikov | C | Fr | 6'8" | 18-0 | 5.8 | 4.1 | 1.2 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 66.3% | 50.0% | 0.1 | 53.3% | 33.7% | |
| 7 | Patrick Tivnan Jr. | F | Jr | 6'8" | 13-0 | 6.4 | 1.0 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 60.0% | 0.0% | 0.1 | 14.3% | 10.2% | |
| 44 | Shanon Simango | F | So | 6'8" | 10-0 | 4.5 | 3.0 | 1.6 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 66.7% | 0.0% | 0.1 | 60.9% | 31.1% | |
| 50 | Tyler Garrett | F | Fr | 6'10" | 8-0 | 5.3 | 2.5 | 2.8 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 59.4% | 33.3% | 1.1 | 50.0% | 26.3% | |
| 3 | Khai Lockwood | G | So | 6'1" | 7-0 | 1.7 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.4 | 0.0 | 0.0% | — | 0.0 | 0.0% | 9.2% |
Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.
C Connecticut2025-26 numbers
ESPN hasn't posted C Connecticut's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.
| # | Player | Pos | Cl | Ht | GP-GS | MPG | PPG | RPG | APG | TOV | eFG% | 3P% | 3PA/g | FT% | Usage | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Darin Smith Jr. | F | So | 6'7" | 30-30 | 32.7 | 20.7 | 5.4 | 1.2 | 1.6 | 51.9% | 37.6% | 5.0 | 89.8% | 35.9% | |
| 1 | Jay Rodgers | G | Sr | 6'3" | 30-28 | 29.2 | 11.0 | 2.2 | 6.9 | 2.7 | 48.9% | 36.2% | 3.1 | 81.7% | 27.0% | |
| 34 | Max Frazier | F | Jr | 6'9" | 30-30 | 28.2 | 12.0 | 7.2 | 0.9 | 1.3 | 65.8% | 0.0% | 0.1 | 60.0% | 22.7% | |
| 24 | James Jones | G | So | 6'6" | 26-23 | 28.8 | 4.2 | 5.6 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 42.5% | 28.6% | 1.1 | 59.1% | 11.8% | |
| 6 | Melo Sanchez | G | Sr | 6'4" | 29-26 | 24.8 | 9.6 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 59.7% | 42.8% | 4.8 | 80.0% | 21.5% | |
| 0 | Elijah Parker | G | Fr | 6'3" | 29-2 | 14.6 | 2.4 | 2.0 | 1.1 | 0.8 | 45.5% | 26.9% | 0.9 | 42.1% | 14.1% | |
| 22 | Daniel James | F | So | 6'8" | 28-5 | 12.6 | 3.5 | 3.1 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 56.3% | 31.8% | 0.8 | 73.9% | 16.2% | |
| 3 | Roddy Jones | G | Fr | 6'1" | 23-0 | 10.7 | 4.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 56.3% | 38.8% | 3.5 | 100.0% | 22.7% | |
| 13 | Ashton Reynolds | G | Fr | 6'4" | 23-1 | 10.1 | 3.7 | 2.0 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 50.8% | 31.6% | 0.8 | 81.5% | 21.6% | |
| 2 | Nico Ashley | F | Sr | 6'7" | 18-1 | 9.8 | 3.3 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 58.0% | 25.0% | 0.7 | 69.2% | 19.6% | |
| 12 | Gabe Spinelli | G | Sr | 6'3" | 11-0 | 14.7 | 4.7 | 1.7 | 1.1 | 0.9 | 53.7% | 44.4% | 0.8 | 100.0% | 19.3% | |
| 10 | Ja'Kobe Williams | G | Sr | 6'3" | 7-4 | 18.1 | 3.3 | 2.9 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 28.6% | 20.0% | 1.4 | 70.0% | 17.9% | |
| 11 | Jayden Mott | F | So | 6'8" | 14-0 | 8.9 | 1.9 | 1.9 | 0.3 | 0.8 | 47.9% | 33.3% | 0.2 | 40.0% | 18.7% | |
| 15 | Adam Fox | G | Fr | 6'5" | 2-0 | 5.5 | 1.5 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 50.0% | 33.3% | 1.5 | — | 14.0% | |
| 20 | Corsley Edwards Jr. | G | Fr | 6'2" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 23 | Rashawn Tibby | F | Fr | 6'8" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — |
Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.
Trends
Last 10 games of 2025-26C Connecticut
Against the spread
Season
14-14
Home
3-9
Road
11-5
Last 10
4-6
avg cover −4.0
Missed the spread 5 straightCovered 4 of 9 as a favorite
Over / under
Season
16-12
Home
9-3
Road
7-9
Last 10
5-5
avg vs total +1.2
Under 2 straightOver in 5 of 9 as a favorite
Last 10 games, newest first
| Date | Opponent | Site | Result | Total | PPP for | PPP vs | Pace | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 4 | Wagner | H | L 60–70 | −3.5 | L−13.5 | 138.5 | U130 | 97.7 | 114.0 | 61.4 |
| Feb 28 | Saint Francis Red Wolves | H | W 69–64 | −8.0 | L−3.0 | 153.0 | U133 | 106.3 | 98.6 | 64.9 |
| Feb 26 | Mercyhurst | H | W 80–78 | −4.0 | L−2.0 | 141.0 | O158 | 117.7 | 114.7 | 68.0 |
| Feb 21 | Chicago St | A | L 51–70 | −3.0 | L−22.0 | 138.5 | U121 | 82.4 | 113.1 | 61.9 |
| Feb 19 | Le Moyne | H | W 78–77 | −3.5 | L−2.5 | 146.5 | O155 | 110.2 | 108.8 | 70.8 |
| Feb 14 | FDU | A | W 63–57 | −1.0 | W+5.0 | 134.0 | U120 | 111.5 | 100.9 | 56.5 |
| Feb 12 | New Haven | A | W 81–76 | −3.0 | W+2.0 | 129.0 | O157 | 117.5 | 110.2 | 69.0 |
| Feb 7 | Wagner | H | W 84–67 | −5.0 | W+12.0 | 136.5 | O151 | 127.9 | 102.0 | 65.7 |
| Feb 5 | Chicago St | H | W 78–67 | −9.0 | W+2.0 | 137.0 | O145 | 125.1 | 107.5 | 62.3 |
| Jan 31 | Long Island | H | L 59–80 | +2.5 | L−18.5 | 143.0 | U139 | 89.1 | 120.8 | 66.2 |
Dartmouth
Against the spread
Season
11-14
Home
2-9
Road
9-5
Last 10
3-7
avg cover −5.0
Missed the spread 3 straightCovered 3 of 9 as an underdog
Over / under
Season
12-13
Home
4-7
Road
8-6
Last 10
5-5
avg vs total +0.6
Over 2 straightOver in 4 of 9 as an underdog
Last 10 games, newest first
| Date | Opponent | Site | Result | Total | PPP for | PPP vs | Pace | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 7 | Cornell | H | L 90–111 | +4.5 | L−16.5 | 166.0 | O201 | 115.5 | 142.5 | 77.9 |
| Feb 28 | Princeton | A | L 61–82 | +2.0 | L−19.0 | 141.5 | O143 | 94.4 | 126.9 | 64.6 |
| Feb 27 | Penn | A | L 71–80 | +6.5 | L−2.5 | 153.5 | U151 | 102.6 | 115.6 | 69.2 |
| Feb 21 | Columbia | A | W 64–63 | +7.0 | W+8.0 | 151.5 | U127 | 95.3 | 93.8 | 67.2 |
| Feb 14 | Brown | H | L 76–79 | −3.0 | L−6.0 | 139.5 | O155 | 106.4 | 110.6 | 71.5 |
| Feb 13 | Yale | H | L 70–83 | +10.0 | L−3.0 | 151.5 | O153 | 102.5 | 121.5 | 68.3 |
| Feb 7 | Harvard | H | L 58–71 | +1.0 | L−12.0 | 140.5 | U129 | 90.1 | 110.3 | 64.4 |
| Jan 31 | Brown | A | W 77–70 OT | +2.0 | W+9.0 | 143.0 | O147 | 103.1 | 93.7 | 74.7 |
| Jan 30 | Yale | A | L 68–83 | +15.5 | W+0.5 | 155.0 | U151 | 105.8 | 129.1 | 64.3 |
| Jan 24 | Columbia | H | L 69–79 | +2.0 | L−8.0 | 157.0 | U148 | 96.6 | 110.6 | 71.4 |
Records vs the closing line describe the past; ten games is a small sample.
Tale of the tape
national rank toned left for away, right for homeC ConnecticutDartmouth
Efficiency
106.6
106.2
112.6
110.8
66.7
69.7
—
—
Shooting
51.6%
51.8%
50.5%
49.4%
35.8%
36.1%
76.7%
74.2%
31.2%
38.0%
Ball control & glass
16.2%
17.6%
14.0%
13.8%
27.5%
23.7%
30.4%
29.7%
9.6%
10.5%
6.5%
10.4%
Style
34.9%
48.7%
42.0%
34.2%
9.6%
9.5%
50.9%
53.9%
29.0%
32.1%
Roster
2.67
2.80
6'5.5"
6'5.2"
—
—
Offseason
roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model inputC Connecticut
Returning minutes: 100.0%Returning production: 100.0%
ESPN hasn't posted C Connecticut's roster for this season yet — no movement to show.
Returns 100% of last season's minutes. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026). (ESPN hasn't posted this season's roster yet -- this may still be last season's list.)
Dartmouth
Returning minutes: 100.0%Returning production: 100.0%
ESPN hasn't posted Dartmouth's roster for this season yet — no movement to show.
Returns 100% of last season's minutes. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026). (ESPN hasn't posted this season's roster yet -- this may still be last season's list.)
Head-to-head
this season and lastNo meetings the last two seasons.
The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — Pinnacle's spread and total (the median across books when Pinnacle has no line). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, built bottom-up from those same numbers: expected possessions times each side's opponent-adjusted points per possession, plus home court.
What these numbers mean: line shopping.