CBB Matchups

Every D1 game with tempo-free ratings, four factors and market lines, one place.

College basketball is being built for the 2026-27 season (tip-off Nov 3). What's here fills in as games are played.

Non-conferenceColonial Life Arena, Columbia, SC

SE Missouri

Efficiency #209

2025-26: 20-13 · 15-7 conf

South Carolina

Efficiency #123

2025-26: 13-19 · 4-15 conf

Sun, Nov 8 · TBD

69.4

win 28%

Projected

76.2

win 72%

No line posted yet.

Model: SC −6.8 · total 145.6 · ratings as of Sat, Oct 3

Preseason ratings start from 2025-26's final adjusted ratings, regressed toward the D1 average. The stats below are 2025-26's too; both update once 2026-27 games are played.

How the projection is built

each step, from an average D-I game to this one

Projected total

Average D-I game

148.2

PaceAdjusted tempo: South Carolina 67.6, SE Missouri 69.4 → 68.7 possessions

+0.8

South Carolina offense vs SE Missouri defense

−0.3

SE Missouri offense vs South Carolina defense

−3.1

Projected total

145.6

Axis starts at 144 pointsPoints added or removed at each step

Projected margin

Even game

0.0

South Carolina offense vs SE Missouri defense

−0.3

SE Missouri offense vs South Carolina defense

+3.1

Home court+2.9 points per 100 possessions to the home offense, −2.9 to the visitors

+4.0

South Carolina by 6.8

6.8

SE Missouri side ◂▸ South Carolina side

Steps are rounded to one decimal, so they can differ from the total by 0.1. The margin is the same build seen from the home side; positive numbers help South Carolina.

Pace & total

possessions per 40 minutes

Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes

Projected possessions: 68.7, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw 2025-26 season pace, SE Missouri is the faster team (69.9, #98 of 365) and South Carolina the slower (68.0, #202). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (study weights 0.80 vs 0.66).

Projected possessions

68.7

per team, 40 min

Projected total

145.6

model

Projected team totals

69.4 / 76.2

SE Missouri / South Carolina

Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent

69.4#92

SE Missouri

67.6#241

South Carolina

How this game plays

what the study found each side's numbers actually do when these two teams meet

AdvantageSouth Carolina

Where South Carolina struggles: shooting

South Carolina shoots an effective 50.3% (#226); SE Missouri allows 48.8% (#57). Expect about 49.4%, 1.8 points below an average D1 matchup — worth roughly -2.6 points per 100 possessions.

GlassSouth Carolina

South Carolina gets out-rebounded

Projected offensive rebound rate of 27.1% is worth roughly -2.0 points per 100 possessions against South Carolina's offense.

Watch for noise

3-point caution

A notable season 3-point number here (South Carolina, SE Missouri) is close to a coin flip going forward — the study's model of next-game 3P% barely beats guessing the D1 average. Shot volume is what actually carries: expect SE Missouri at about 34.3% of its shots from three, South Carolina about 39.4%.

AdvantageSE Missouri

Where SE Missouri scores: ball control

SE Missouri turns it over on 16.9% of possessions (#192); South Carolina forces turnovers on 14.6% of opponent possessions (#314). Expect about 15.5%, 1.3 points below an average D1 matchup — worth roughly +1.6 points per 100 possessions.

ClashSE Missouri

Style match: 3-point volume

SE Missouri rarely shoots threes (36.0% of its shots); South Carolina runs teams off the line (35.8% of shots allowed from three) (D1 average 39.5%). Expect about 34.3% — both habits push the same way.

ClashSE Missouri

Style match: paint scoring

SE Missouri scores 46.3% of its points in the paint; South Carolina gives up 47.2% of opponents' points in the paint (D1 average 42.8%). Expect about 45.2% — both habits push the same way.

SE Missouri has the ball

OffenseSouth Carolina allowsvs D1 avg

49.8% #244

51.6% #188

-1.0 pt/100

16.9% #192

14.6% #314

+1.6 pt/100

29.6% #218

32.1% #263

+0.2 pt/100

38.8% #84

34.0% #151

+0.2 pt/100

69.5% #281

—

-0.3 pt/100

SE Missouri net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: +0.7 pts/100

South Carolina has the ball

OffenseSE Missouri allowsvs D1 avg

50.3% #226

48.8% #57

-2.6 pt/100

14.5% #42

18.1% #91

+0.6 pt/100

27.2% #289

28.2% #76

-2.0 pt/100

36.7% #137

48.0% #361

+1.1 pt/100

78.1% #14

—

+0.5 pt/100

South Carolina net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: -2.5 pts/100

Shot diet

Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot · 2025-26 numbers

SE Missourioffense vsSouth Carolinadefense

Share of shots by zone

SE Missouri shoots

43.5

6.5

14.5

35.5

South Carolina allows

38.5

7.1

18.2

36.2

D-I average

38.5

6.4

15.8

39.3

FG% by zone

Zone			D-I avg
Rim	58.7%#168	63.9%#340	58.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)	34.7%#292	35.3%#65	39.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)	34.8%#295	40.5%#258	38.0%
Three	30.9%#324	31.8%#56	33.7%

South Carolinaoffense vsSE Missouridefense

Share of shots by zone

South Carolina shoots

33.0

7.1

15.4

44.5

SE Missouri allows

40.5

9.7

17.0

32.7

D-I average

38.5

6.4

15.8

39.3

FG% by zone

Zone			D-I avg
Rim	59.7%#130	53.5%#30	58.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)	38.8%#200	36.6%#104	39.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)	43.4%#32	41.9%#299	38.0%
Three	31.1%#317	33.1%#130	33.7%

RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three

Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).

Shot volume

Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line · 2025-26 numbers

SE Missouri

−0.9extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#224 of 365

Off reb %

29.6%

#218

Def reb %

71.8%

#76

Turnover %

16.9%

#192

Forced TO %

18.1%

#91

FT rate

38.8%

#84

FT allowed

48.0%

#361

Where the chances come from (per game)

Offensive rebounding−0.3

Defensive rebounding+0.8

Ball security−0.1

Forcing turnovers+1.0

Foul shots drawn+1.0

Foul shots allowed−3.3

South Carolina

−0.6extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#203 of 365

Off reb %

27.2%

#289

Def reb %

67.9%

#263

Turnover %

14.5%

#42

Forced TO %

14.6%

#314

FT rate

36.7%

#137

FT allowed

34.0%

#151

Where the chances come from (per game)

Offensive rebounding−1.0

Defensive rebounding−0.5

Ball security+1.6

Forcing turnovers−1.4

Foul shots drawn+0.4

Foul shots allowed+0.3

South Carolina has more extra scoring chances per game: −0.6 (#203 of 365) to SE Missouri’s −0.9 (#224).

Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).

Rotation

SE Missouri2025-26 numbers

ESPN hasn't posted SE Missouri's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
2	BJ Ward	G	Jr	6'0"	33-33	30.2	10.9	2.1	3.7	2.0	46.4%	35.0%	4.3	81.0%	24.3%
44	Braxton Stacker	G	Sr	6'5"	33-33	28.2	11.8	3.4	1.4	1.4	48.7%	31.9%	4.4	80.3%	24.6%
10	Luke Almodovar	G	Jr	6'3"	33-23	27.0	14.1	3.7	0.7	1.0	51.5%	31.6%	6.3	76.0%	28.8%
15	Brendan Terry	F	Sr	6'7"	33-24	25.1	11.3	5.3	2.0	1.8	55.8%	34.6%	0.8	61.5%	26.6%
55	Marqueas Bell	G	Jr	6'3"	33-10	22.1	9.1	5.2	1.8	1.4	53.5%	30.8%	0.4	73.9%	23.6%
7	Landren Blocker	G	So	6'5"	33-28	17.8	5.2	3.8	0.5	0.8	54.5%	41.7%	0.7	48.2%	18.1%
4	Troy Cole Jr.	G	Sr	6'4"	33-4	13.5	4.2	2.3	0.6	0.8	43.4%	7.0%	1.3	68.3%	21.6%
18	David Idada	C	Sr	7'0"	33-10	10.7	1.8	2.5	0.3	0.5	54.8%	—	0.0	54.3%	10.8%
1	PJ Farmer	G	Fr	6'2"	32-0	9.3	1.9	1.4	1.0	0.8	43.1%	10.5%	0.6	58.8%	17.1%
9	Blaize Sagna	G	Sr	6'3"	27-0	8.9	1.5	1.0	0.4	0.3	41.9%	25.0%	1.0	90.0%	11.7%
30	Elliot Lowndes	F	Sr	7'0"	32-0	7.1	2.5	1.3	0.2	0.3	58.5%	34.3%	1.1	50.0%	19.3%
25	Jay Reynolds	G	Fr	6'3"	10-0	5.2	1.2	0.3	0.1	0.2	28.9%	20.0%	1.5	50.0%	22.8%
3	Trace Sadler	F	Fr	7'1"	12-0	4.0	1.0	0.4	0.0	0.2	85.7%	—	0.0	0.0%	10.7%
22	Saxton Hoepker	F	Sr	6'8"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

South Carolina2025-26 numbers

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
15	Eli Ellis	G	Fr	6'0"	28-0	26.9	8.6	2.8	2.0	1.0	44.2%	28.0%	2.9	87.9%	20.8%
10	Myles Stute	G	Sr	6'7"	27-24	23.3	5.6	3.7	0.9	1.0	47.6%	30.9%	4.1	64.0%	16.8%
31	Elijah Strong	F	Jr	6'8"	32-18	17.1	10.0	2.3	0.9	0.9	49.3%	27.8%	3.0	75.9%	36.1%
13	Grant Polk	G	Fr	6'6"	30-0	12.9	3.8	1.1	0.1	0.2	51.5%	32.9%	2.6	90.9%	17.1%
6	EJ Walker	F	Fr	6'7"	22-6	15.9	2.9	2.7	0.4	0.8	49.1%	24.1%	1.3	47.1%	13.9%
24	Nordin Kapic	F	Sr	6'8"	22-4	10.8	3.9	2.0	0.4	0.4	52.1%	34.0%	2.1	69.2%	21.7%
20	Hayden Assemian	F	Fr	6'6"	24-4	9.8	2.4	2.5	0.3	0.5	69.4%	—	0.0	57.1%	13.7%
0	Jordan Butler	F	Jr	7'0"	25-4	8.9	2.8	1.8	0.2	0.2	53.4%	25.0%	0.8	77.4%	17.1%
14	Eli Sparkman	G	Sr	6'0"	12-0	3.5	0.5	0.3	0.3	0.0	42.9%	28.6%	0.6	—	9.7%
7	Abu Yarmah	G	Fr	6'6"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—
23	Cam Scott	G	So	6'6"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

SE Missouri2025-26 numbers

ESPN hasn't posted SE Missouri's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
2	BJ Ward	G	Jr	6'0"	33-33	30.2	10.9	2.1	3.7	2.0	46.4%	35.0%	4.3	81.0%	24.3%
44	Braxton Stacker	G	Sr	6'5"	33-33	28.2	11.8	3.4	1.4	1.4	48.7%	31.9%	4.4	80.3%	24.6%
10	Luke Almodovar	G	Jr	6'3"	33-23	27.0	14.1	3.7	0.7	1.0	51.5%	31.6%	6.3	76.0%	28.8%
15	Brendan Terry	F	Sr	6'7"	33-24	25.1	11.3	5.3	2.0	1.8	55.8%	34.6%	0.8	61.5%	26.6%
55	Marqueas Bell	G	Jr	6'3"	33-10	22.1	9.1	5.2	1.8	1.4	53.5%	30.8%	0.4	73.9%	23.6%
7	Landren Blocker	G	So	6'5"	33-28	17.8	5.2	3.8	0.5	0.8	54.5%	41.7%	0.7	48.2%	18.1%
4	Troy Cole Jr.	G	Sr	6'4"	33-4	13.5	4.2	2.3	0.6	0.8	43.4%	7.0%	1.3	68.3%	21.6%
18	David Idada	C	Sr	7'0"	33-10	10.7	1.8	2.5	0.3	0.5	54.8%	—	0.0	54.3%	10.8%
1	PJ Farmer	G	Fr	6'2"	32-0	9.3	1.9	1.4	1.0	0.8	43.1%	10.5%	0.6	58.8%	17.1%
9	Blaize Sagna	G	Sr	6'3"	27-0	8.9	1.5	1.0	0.4	0.3	41.9%	25.0%	1.0	90.0%	11.7%
30	Elliot Lowndes	F	Sr	7'0"	32-0	7.1	2.5	1.3	0.2	0.3	58.5%	34.3%	1.1	50.0%	19.3%
25	Jay Reynolds	G	Fr	6'3"	10-0	5.2	1.2	0.3	0.1	0.2	28.9%	20.0%	1.5	50.0%	22.8%
3	Trace Sadler	F	Fr	7'1"	12-0	4.0	1.0	0.4	0.0	0.2	85.7%	—	0.0	0.0%	10.7%
22	Saxton Hoepker	F	Sr	6'8"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Trends

Last 10 games of 2025-26

SE Missouri

Against the spread

Season

13-16-1

Home

5-7

Road

7-7-1

Last 10

6-4

avg cover +0.8

Missed the spread 2 straightCovered 4 of 8 as a favorite

Over / under

Season

13-17

Home

6-6

Road

7-8

Last 10

3-7

avg vs total −5.5

Under 2 straightOver in 3 of 8 as a favorite

Last 10 games, newest first

Date	Opponent	Site	Result			Total		PPP for	PPP vs	Pace
Mar 6	Morehead StAdjEM #266	N	L 61–66	−4.0	L−9.0	139.5	U127	94.4	102.1	64.6
Mar 5	LindenwoodAdjEM #244	N	W 68–66	−3.0	L−1.0	149.0	U134	100.1	97.2	67.9
Feb 28	Tennessee TechAdjEM #298	H	W 89–73	−7.5	W+8.5	142.0	O162	130.8	107.3	68.1
Feb 26	Tennessee StAdjEM #155	H	L 71–79	−3.5	L−11.5	152.0	U150	96.4	107.3	73.6
Feb 21	Little RockAdjEM #300	A	W 70–65	−2.5	W+2.5	144.0	U135	102.6	95.3	68.2
Feb 17	UT MartinAdjEM #182	A	W 56–53 OT	+2.5	W+5.5	138.5	U109	78.4	74.2	71.5
Feb 14	LindenwoodAdjEM #244	A	W 73–61	+2.0	W+14.0	156.5	U134	100.8	84.2	72.4
Feb 12	SIUEAdjEM #229	A	L 56–74	−1.0	L−19.0	137.5	U130	85.4	112.8	65.6
Feb 7	S IndianaAdjEM #333	H	W 90–65	−11.0	W+14.0	140.5	O155	133.2	96.2	67.6
Feb 5	Morehead StAdjEM #266	H	W 82–70	−7.5	W+4.5	144.0	O152	117.1	99.9	70.1

South Carolina

Against the spread

Season

14-17-1

Home

6-12-1

Road

7-3

Last 10

5-5

avg cover +0.1

Missed the spread in the last gameCovered 5 of 10 as an underdogCovered 3 of 5 with a line of 10+

Over / under

Season

15-16-1

Home

9-10

Road

3-6-1

Last 10

3-7

avg vs total −2.5

Over in the last gameOver in 3 of 10 as an underdogOver in 1 of 5 with a line of 10+

Last 10 games, newest first

Date	Opponent	Site	Result			Total		PPP for	PPP vs	Pace
Mar 11	OklahomaAdjEM #47	N	L 74–86	+8.0	L−4.0	149.0	O160	116.1	134.9	63.8
Mar 7	Ole MissAdjEM #82	A	W 64–61	+7.0	W+10.0	147.0	U125	96.5	92.0	66.3
Mar 3	#23TennesseeAdjEM #13	H	L 59–78	+11.0	L−8.0	142.0	U137	95.8	126.6	61.6
Feb 28	GeorgiaAdjEM #32	A	L 68–87	+12.5	L−6.5	159.0	U155	107.0	136.9	63.5
Feb 24	KentuckyAdjEM #27	H	L 63–72	+7.5	L−1.5	151.0	U135	87.7	100.3	71.8
Feb 21	Mississippi StAdjEM #144	H	W 97–89	+1.0	W+9.0	152.0	O186	133.7	122.7	72.5
Feb 17	#12FloridaAdjEM #5	A	L 62–76	+23.0	W+9.0	155.0	U138	92.5	113.4	67.0
Feb 14	AlabamaAdjEM #18	A	L 75–89	+18.0	W+4.0	169.5	U164	99.1	117.6	75.7
Feb 7	MissouriAdjEM #67	H	L 59–78	+3.0	L−16.0	147.0	U137	90.0	119.0	65.5
Feb 3	TexasAdjEM #38	A	L 75–84	+13.5	W+4.5	149.5	O159	109.9	123.1	68.3

Records vs the closing line describe the past; ten games is a small sample.

Tale of the tape

national rank toned left for away, right for home

SE MissouriSouth Carolina

Efficiency

105.2

109.7

106.8

107.3

69.4

67.6

—

Shooting

49.8%

50.3%

51.8%

53.2%

30.9%

31.1%

69.5%

78.1%

38.8%

36.7%

Ball control & glass

16.9%

14.5%

18.1%

14.6%

29.6%

27.2%

28.2%

32.1%

9.9%

9.3%

9.5%

11.1%

Style

36.0%

44.4%

46.3%

39.4%

14.1%

8.7%

45.7%

52.9%

37.9%

35.7%

Roster

3.25

2.25

6'4.4"

6'5.7"

—

52.6%

Offseason

roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model input

SE Missouri

Returning minutes: 100.0%Returning production: 100.0%

ESPN hasn't posted SE Missouri's roster for this season yet — no movement to show.

Returns 100% of last season's minutes. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026). (ESPN hasn't posted this season's roster yet -- this may still be last season's list.)

South Carolina

Returning minutes: 52.6%Returning production: 42.7%

Lost

Meechie Johnson 31.5 mpg, 17.2 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
Kobe Knox 29.9 mpg, 10.8 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
Mike Sharavjamts 29.7 mpg, 10.9 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
Christ Essandoko 4.9 mpg, 1.3 ppg · transferred to Bowling Green

Added

Abu Yarmah no D1 minutes last season
Cam Scott no D1 minutes last season

No incoming D1 transfers are listed on ESPN's roster yet — until they are, returning shares read high.

Returns 53% of last season's minutes; lost 3 of its top 5.

Head-to-head

this season and last

No meetings the last two seasons.

The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — Pinnacle's spread and total (the median across books when Pinnacle has no line). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, built bottom-up from those same numbers: expected possessions times each side's opponent-adjusted points per possession, plus home court.

What these numbers mean: line shopping.