CBB Matchups

Every D1 game with tempo-free ratings, four factors and market lines, one place.

College basketball is being built for the 2026-27 season (tip-off Nov 3). What's here fills in as games are played.
Non-conferenceLawler Arena, North Andover, MA
Vermont
Efficiency #199
2025-26: 22-12 · 14-5 conf
@
Merrimack
Efficiency #158
2025-26: 23-11 · 19-4 conf
Thu, Dec 10 · TBD
66.0
win 33%
Projected
71.1
win 67%
No line posted yet.
Model: MRMK −5.0 · total 137.1 · ratings as of Sat, Oct 3
Preseason ratings start from 2025-26's final adjusted ratings, regressed toward the D1 average. The stats below are 2025-26's too; both update once 2026-27 games are played.

How the projection is built

each step, from an average D-I game to this one
Projected total
Average D-I game
148.2
PaceAdjusted tempo: Merrimack 65.8, Vermont 66.5 → 64.0 possessions
−9.3
Merrimack offense vs Vermont defense
−0.2
Vermont offense vs Merrimack defense
−1.6
Projected total
137.1
Axis starts at 130 pointsPoints added or removed at each step
Projected margin
Even game
0.0
Merrimack offense vs Vermont defense
−0.2
Vermont offense vs Merrimack defense
+1.6
Home court+2.9 points per 100 possessions to the home offense, −2.9 to the visitors
+3.7
Merrimack by 5.0
5.0
Vermont side ◂▸ Merrimack side

Steps are rounded to one decimal, so they can differ from the total by 0.1: the margin steps add to +5.1 against +5.0. The margin is the same build seen from the home side; positive numbers help Merrimack.

Pace & total

possessions per 40 minutes
Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes

Projected possessions: 64.0, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw 2025-26 season pace, Vermont is the faster team (64.4, #346 of 365) and Merrimack the slower (63.7, #359). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (study weights 0.80 vs 0.66).

Projected possessions
64.0
per team, 40 min
Projected total
137.1
model
Projected team totals
66.0 / 71.1
Vermont / Merrimack
Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent
66.5#317
Vermont
65.8#347
Merrimack

How this game plays

what the study found each side's numbers actually do when these two teams meet
Pace
Half-court grind
Merrimack averages 63.7 possessions per 40, Vermont 64.4. Slower teams pull the pace toward themselves more than fast teams push it (0.80 vs 0.66 in five seasons of games), so expect about 62 — more possessions mean more points in the total and more chances for the better team to separate.
AdvantageMerrimack
Where Merrimack struggles: the offensive glass
Merrimack rebounds 24.8% of its own misses (#343); Vermont lets opponents grab 23.0% of their own misses (#2). Expect about 22.9%, 7.5 points below an average D1 matchup — worth roughly -4.6 points per 100 possessions.
TurnoversMerrimack
Merrimack protects the ball
Projected turnover rate of 14.4% is worth roughly +2.9 points per 100 possessions for Merrimack's offense.
DefenseMerrimack
Merrimack's shot-blocking
Merrimack ranks #15 nationally in block rate — one of the few defensive numbers that travels. Expect about 12.0% of Vermont's two-point attempts to get blocked against this defense.
Watch for noise
3-point caution
A notable season 3-point number here (Merrimack's defense) is close to a coin flip going forward — the study's model of next-game 3P% barely beats guessing the D1 average. Shot volume is what actually carries: expect Vermont at about 39.2% of its shots from three, Merrimack about 45.9%.
AdvantageVermont
Where Vermont struggles: shooting
Vermont shoots an effective 53.1% (#95); Merrimack allows 46.7% (#17). Expect about 50.0%, 1.3 points below an average D1 matchup — worth roughly -1.8 points per 100 possessions.
Vermont has the ball
OffenseMerrimack allowsvs D1 avg
53.1% #95
46.7% #17
-1.8 pt/100
14.3% #35
20.4% #16
-1.1 pt/100
26.2% #318
39.9% #365
+1.0 pt/100
31.1% #279
37.1% #239
-0.1 pt/100
71.9% #213
—
-0.0 pt/100
Vermont net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: -2.0 pts/100
Merrimack has the ball
OffenseVermont allowsvs D1 avg
49.1% #288
50.4% #121
-2.4 pt/100
14.8% #56
14.8% #305
+2.9 pt/100
24.8% #343
23.0% #2
-4.6 pt/100
38.2% #99
36.4% #226
+0.3 pt/100
78.8% #8
—
+0.6 pt/100
Merrimack net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: -3.2 pts/100

Shot diet

Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot · 2025-26 numbers
Vermontoffense vsMerrimackdefense
Share of shots by zone
Vermont shoots
Merrimack allows
D-I average
FG% by zone
ZoneD-I avg
Rim62.5%#6151.4%#1158.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)48.0%#2342.9%#24739.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)40.3%#10438.7%#18838.0%
Three33.3%#20830.3%#1233.7%
Merrimackoffense vsVermontdefense
Share of shots by zone
Merrimack shoots
Vermont allows
D-I average
FG% by zone
ZoneD-I avg
Rim53.4%#33257.1%#11858.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)38.5%#20841.9%#23039.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)33.5%#32135.1%#8038.0%
Three32.7%#24335.3%#26733.7%
RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three

Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).

Shot volume

Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line · 2025-26 numbers
Vermont
+0.2extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#174 of 365
Off reb %
26.2%
#318
Def reb %
77.0%
#2
Turnover %
14.3%
#35
Forced TO %
14.8%
#305
FT rate
31.1%
#279
FT allowed
36.4%
#226
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding−1.4
Defensive rebounding+2.5
Ball security+1.7
Forcing turnovers−1.3
Foul shots drawn−1.0
Foul shots allowed−0.3
Merrimack
−0.6extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#206 of 365
Off reb %
24.8%
#343
Def reb %
60.1%
#365
Turnover %
14.8%
#56
Forced TO %
20.4%
#16
FT rate
38.2%
#99
FT allowed
37.1%
#239
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding−1.8
Defensive rebounding−3.0
Ball security+1.3
Forcing turnovers+2.5
Foul shots drawn+0.8
Foul shots allowed−0.5

Vermont has more extra scoring chances per game: +0.2 (#174 of 365) to Merrimack’s −0.6 (#206).

Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).

Rotation

Vermont2025-26 numbers
#PlayerPosClHtGP-GSMPGPPGRPGAPGTOVeFG%3P%3PA/gFT%UsageStatus
3TJ HurleyGSr6'5"34-3430.915.03.51.40.958.1%38.5%6.087.3%25.8%
20TJ LongGSr6'4"29-1729.612.14.81.11.148.2%31.4%6.579.7%26.7%
19Gus YaldenFSo6'9"31-3025.516.15.82.11.756.1%34.7%3.867.3%37.9%
34Noah BarnettFSo6'9"31-2522.35.83.60.50.466.8%50.0%0.164.1%13.3%
24Ben JohnsonGSr6'3"34-1718.25.42.11.10.359.7%42.2%3.272.2%16.2%
21Lucas MariGFr6'6"30-820.04.94.01.71.246.5%26.3%2.570.0%18.8%
2Ben MichaelsFSo6'8"31-1113.12.02.20.40.538.3%9.1%0.762.5%13.2%
1Momo NkugwaGFr6'3"29-013.13.02.30.70.454.9%25.0%1.147.4%15.0%
4Jackson SkipperFSr6'7"29-18.51.81.10.30.543.9%27.3%1.176.9%17.6%
0David SimonFSo6'11"18-010.63.42.20.30.670.7%57.1%0.436.4%18.6%
32Trey WoodyardFSr6'6"4-08.01.50.30.30.042.9%40.0%1.3—13.6%
12Ben WessonGFr6'4"7-02.31.90.30.10.185.7%66.7%0.450.0%32.4%
25Sincere ClemonsGFr6'2"6-02.20.20.20.00.20.0%0.0%0.350.0%26.3%
15Drew BessetteFFr6'8"5-02.40.41.40.20.025.0%0.0%0.6—19.0%
13Chris KuzemkaGSr6'0"0-00.00.00.00.00.0——0.0——
Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Tale of the tape

national rank toned left for away, right for home
VermontMerrimack
Efficiency
108.2
107.2
109.4
106.3
66.5
65.8
—
—
Shooting
53.1%
49.1%
55.7%
49.1%
33.3%
32.7%
71.9%
78.8%
31.1%
38.2%
Ball control & glass
14.3%
14.8%
14.8%
20.4%
26.2%
24.8%
23.0%
39.9%
8.3%
7.2%
8.3%
13.0%
Style
44.6%
46.1%
41.8%
38.0%
5.5%
13.5%
47.9%
56.0%
34.4%
17.6%
Roster
2.78
3.46
6'6.1"
6'4.3"
85.8%
36.3%

Offseason

roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model input
Vermont
Returning minutes: 85.8%Returning production: 85.6%
Lost
  • Sean Blake 28.6 mpg, 9.9 ppg · transferred to Ball State
Added
  • Chris Kuzemka no D1 minutes last season

No incoming D1 transfers are listed on ESPN's roster yet — until they are, returning shares read high.

Returns 86% of last season's minutes; lost 1 of its top 5 (1 transferred). Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026).

Merrimack
Returning minutes: 36.3%Returning production: 32.9%
Lost
  • Ernest Shelton 36.9 mpg, 15.9 ppg · transferred to Boston College
  • Kevair Kennedy 36.8 mpg, 18.4 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
  • Andrés Marrero 27.4 mpg, 7.9 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
  • KC Ugwuakazi 17.8 mpg, 4.9 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
  • Jaylen Stinson 3.8 mpg, 0.7 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
  • Aliou Cisse 2.7 mpg, 0.5 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
Added
  • Denver Anglin from Iona · 27.2 mpg, 9.0 ppg last season
  • Elijah Wilborn from James Madison · 8.0 mpg, 2.2 ppg last season
  • Aram Vladimir Soqui Urbano from Fresno St · 3.9 mpg, 0.9 ppg last season
  • Rocco Westfield no D1 minutes last season
  • JP Skoric no D1 minutes last season
  • Jacob Moore no D1 minutes last season

Returns 36% of last season's minutes; lost 3 of its top 5 (1 transferred). Teams returning under 40% of last season's minutes have historically fallen about 0.8 points of AdjEM (n=716 team-seasons, 2022-2026).

Head-to-head

this season and last
DateSeasonResult
Fri, Nov 272026-27Vermont 0 – 0 Merrimack(N)
Sun, Dec 142025-26Merrimack 59 – 66 Vermont

The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — Pinnacle's spread and total (the median across books when Pinnacle has no line). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, built bottom-up from those same numbers: expected possessions times each side's opponent-adjusted points per possession, plus home court.

What these numbers mean: line shopping.