CBB Matchups

Every D1 game with tempo-free ratings, four factors and market lines, one place.

College basketball is being built for the 2026-27 season (tip-off Nov 3). What's here fills in as games are played.

Non-conferenceF&M Bank Arena, Clarksville, TN

Air Force

Efficiency #360

2025-26: 3-29 · 0-21 conf

Austin Peay

Efficiency #141

2025-26: 22-9 · 16-4 conf

Thu, Dec 10 · TBD

64.3

win 8%

Projected

80.7

win 92%

No line posted yet.

Model: APSU −16.4 · total 145.0 · ratings as of Sat, Oct 3

Preseason ratings start from 2025-26's final adjusted ratings, regressed toward the D1 average. The stats below are 2025-26's too; both update once 2026-27 games are played.

How the projection is built

each step, from an average D-I game to this one

Projected total

Average D-I game

148.2

PaceAdjusted tempo: Austin Peay 69.5, Air Force 67.6 → 68.8 possessions

+1.1

Austin Peay offense vs Air Force defense

+4.1

Air Force offense vs Austin Peay defense

−8.4

Projected total

145.0

Axis starts at 140 pointsPoints added or removed at each step

Projected margin

Even game

0.0

Austin Peay offense vs Air Force defense

+4.1

Air Force offense vs Austin Peay defense

+8.4

Home court+2.9 points per 100 possessions to the home offense, −2.9 to the visitors

+4.0

Austin Peay by 16.4

16.4

Air Force side ◂▸ Austin Peay side

Steps are rounded to one decimal, so they can differ from the total by 0.1: the margin steps add to +16.5 against +16.4. The margin is the same build seen from the home side; positive numbers help Austin Peay.

Pace & total

possessions per 40 minutes

Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes

Projected possessions: 68.8, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw 2025-26 season pace, Austin Peay is the faster team (70.1, #90 of 365) and Air Force the slower (67.4, #227). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (study weights 0.80 vs 0.66).

Projected possessions

68.8

per team, 40 min

Projected total

145.0

model

Projected team totals

64.3 / 80.7

Air Force / Austin Peay

Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent

67.6#242

Air Force

69.5#82

Austin Peay

How this game plays

what the study found each side's numbers actually do when these two teams meet

AdvantageAustin Peay

Where Austin Peay scores: shooting

Austin Peay shoots an effective 53.0% (#105); Air Force allows 56.4% (#350). Expect about 54.9%, 3.6 points above an average D1 matchup — worth roughly +5.1 points per 100 possessions.

AdvantageAir Force

Where Air Force struggles: ball control

Air Force turns it over on 21.9% of possessions (#361); Austin Peay forces turnovers on 17.9% of opponent possessions (#104). Expect about 20.4%, 3.6 points above an average D1 matchup — worth roughly -4.4 points per 100 possessions.

GlassAir Force

Air Force gets out-rebounded

Projected offensive rebound rate of 23.4% is worth roughly -4.3 points per 100 possessions against Air Force's offense.

DefenseAustin Peay

Austin Peay's ball-hawking

Austin Peay ranks #24 nationally in steal rate — one of the few defensive numbers that travels. Expect about 12.0% of Air Force's possessions to end in a steal against this defense.

TurnoversAustin Peay

Austin Peay protects the ball

Projected turnover rate of 14.9% is worth roughly +2.3 points per 100 possessions for Austin Peay's offense.

Watch for noise

3-point caution

A notable season 3-point number here (Air Force, Air Force's defense) is close to a coin flip going forward — the study's model of next-game 3P% barely beats guessing the D1 average. Shot volume is what actually carries: expect Air Force at about 42.1% of its shots from three, Austin Peay about 37.9%.

Air Force has the ball

OffenseAustin Peay allowsvs D1 avg

48.9% #292

52.2% #227

-1.3 pt/100

21.9% #361

17.9% #104

-4.4 pt/100

21.4% #360

28.9% #100

-4.3 pt/100

35.1% #174

32.8% #127

-0.2 pt/100

64.1% #364

—

-0.7 pt/100

Air Force net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: -10.8 pts/100

Austin Peay has the ball

OffenseAir Force allowsvs D1 avg

53.0% #105

56.4% #350

+5.1 pt/100

15.4% #93

15.1% #281

+2.3 pt/100

29.7% #214

31.3% #215

-0.0 pt/100

37.6% #110

36.6% #227

+0.3 pt/100

73.4% #158

—

+0.1 pt/100

Austin Peay net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: +7.7 pts/100

Shot diet

Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot · 2025-26 numbers

Air Forceoffense vsAustin Peaydefense

Share of shots by zone

Air Force shoots

38.6

7.1

12.7

41.6

Austin Peay allows

41.7

5.2

12.2

40.8

D-I average

38.5

6.4

15.8

39.3

FG% by zone

Zone			D-I avg
Rim	59.3%#152	60.5%#254	58.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)	29.5%#351	32.5%#24	39.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)	33.9%#314	40.2%#249	38.0%
Three	30.6%#332	33.2%#137	33.7%

Austin Peayoffense vsAir Forcedefense

Share of shots by zone

Austin Peay shoots

43.8

7.7

10.7

37.8

Air Force allows

38.1

6.5

16.8

38.6

D-I average

38.5

6.4

15.8

39.3

FG% by zone

Zone			D-I avg
Rim	58.5%#178	62.7%#319	58.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)	44.0%#79	45.5%#309	39.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)	33.7%#318	42.1%#309	38.0%
Three	35.3%#99	37.6%#352	33.7%

RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three

Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).

Shot volume

Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line · 2025-26 numbers

Air Force

−8.0extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#363 of 365

Off reb %

21.4%

#360

Def reb %

68.7%

#215

Turnover %

21.9%

#361

Forced TO %

15.1%

#281

FT rate

35.1%

#174

FT allowed

36.6%

#227

Where the chances come from (per game)

Offensive rebounding−2.9

Defensive rebounding−0.2

Ball security−3.5

Forcing turnovers−1.1

Foul shots drawn0.0

Foul shots allowed−0.3

Austin Peay

+3.4extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#48 of 365

Off reb %

29.7%

#214

Def reb %

71.1%

#100

Turnover %

15.4%

#93

Forced TO %

17.9%

#104

FT rate

37.6%

#110

FT allowed

32.8%

#127

Where the chances come from (per game)

Offensive rebounding−0.2

Defensive rebounding+0.6

Ball security+0.9

Forcing turnovers+0.8

Foul shots drawn+0.7

Foul shots allowed+0.6

Austin Peay has more extra scoring chances per game: +3.4 (#48 of 365) to Air Force’s −8.0 (#363).

Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).

Rotation

Air Force2025-26 numbers

ESPN hasn't posted Air Force's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
3	Kam Sanders	G	Fr	6'3"	32-32	29.9	12.5	4.2	3.8	2.3	45.3%	36.0%	3.6	73.0%	28.8%
24	Lucas Hobin	F	Fr	6'8"	32-25	29.0	11.4	2.0	0.6	1.3	47.5%	31.8%	6.9	83.3%	24.8%
30	Eli Robinson	F	So	6'6"	31-31	28.0	7.8	5.2	1.6	1.8	52.2%	35.9%	1.3	65.8%	19.2%
21	Ethan Greenberg	G	Fr	6'4"	32-29	26.9	6.6	2.3	1.0	1.1	49.2%	34.2%	4.8	65.2%	16.9%
51	Wesley Celichowski	C	Jr	7'0"	32-29	20.7	4.8	2.4	1.3	1.1	43.5%	16.4%	1.9	53.3%	18.2%
10	Caleb Walker	F	Jr	6'9"	24-6	21.6	10.4	5.0	0.8	2.0	66.9%	0.0%	0.0	46.4%	28.6%
2	A.J. Patterson	G	So	6'3"	29-0	14.3	2.2	1.9	1.8	1.7	42.7%	14.3%	0.2	60.7%	16.9%
32	Kolby Gilles	F	Jr	6'5"	32-5	12.8	3.2	1.7	0.6	1.6	47.0%	13.6%	0.7	57.1%	22.5%
15	Justin Hinds	G	Fr	6'5"	29-3	11.5	1.4	1.4	0.5	0.7	30.0%	16.1%	1.1	58.3%	14.4%
5	Riley Dering	F	Fr	6'9"	14-0	13.5	5.4	2.8	0.0	0.4	62.7%	66.7%	0.2	66.7%	20.0%
35	Kyle Marshall	G	So	6'4"	4-0	16.5	3.5	2.8	2.0	0.3	41.2%	0.0%	0.5	0.0%	17.2%
11	Brendan Martin	F	Fr	6'6"	12-0	5.4	1.8	0.4	0.2	0.2	52.4%	26.7%	1.3	0.0%	21.4%
0	Josh Gatete	F	Jr	6'9"	14-0	4.4	0.3	0.4	0.4	0.8	21.4%	25.0%	0.3	50.0%	18.0%
33	Sam Imade	F	Fr	6'7"	10-0	3.4	0.8	0.1	0.0	0.0	40.0%	50.0%	0.4	—	17.7%
7	Elliott Taite	G	So	6'4"	11-0	1.8	1.6	0.2	0.2	0.1	69.2%	57.1%	0.6	0.0%	42.2%
25	Chris Catchings	G	Fr	6'4"	5-0	2.0	0.0	0.4	0.8	0.2	0.0%	0.0%	0.4	—	24.2%
8	Keaton Frisch	F	Fr	6'6"	1-0	1.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	0.0%

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Austin Peay2025-26 numbers

ESPN hasn't posted Austin Peay's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
32	Collin Parker	F	Sr	6'8"	31-31	30.6	17.6	6.2	3.2	1.6	54.5%	40.0%	4.5	81.5%	30.8%
0	Tate McCubbin	G	So	6'8"	31-31	29.5	9.7	4.8	1.4	0.8	49.8%	34.6%	6.0	79.2%	19.1%
1	Zyree Collins	PG	Fr	6'0"	31-30	29.3	13.5	3.1	4.3	2.5	47.8%	31.3%	3.2	74.8%	29.5%
5	Rashaud Marshall	F	Jr	6'8"	31-28	29.2	16.3	6.8	1.2	1.2	65.5%	—	0.0	67.3%	25.7%
12	Anton Brookshire	PG	Sr	6'2"	31-20	24.8	8.4	2.2	2.7	1.4	54.8%	37.7%	4.7	80.0%	19.4%
23	Ja'Corey Robinson	PG	Fr	6'6"	30-0	17.2	6.6	2.9	2.0	1.3	53.4%	40.0%	0.3	75.4%	22.9%
3	Matt Enright	PG	Sr	6'2"	25-12	15.4	4.7	1.1	1.0	0.3	52.6%	37.3%	3.0	75.0%	16.5%
7	Creighton Morisch	F	Sr	6'10"	30-3	9.2	1.3	2.0	0.4	0.6	48.7%	28.6%	0.2	18.2%	12.8%
22	Travis Torain	G	So	6'8"	21-0	9.2	2.0	2.4	0.0	0.4	54.7%	33.3%	0.1	100.0%	12.2%
2	Tyler Wagner	G	Fr	6'5"	21-0	7.8	2.9	1.3	0.1	0.1	59.4%	38.6%	2.1	75.0%	17.0%
20	Quan Lax	PG	Sr	6'2"	9-0	13.8	2.4	1.6	0.9	0.7	34.1%	10.0%	1.1	77.8%	14.6%
24	Hansel Enmanuel	PG	Sr	6'6"	11-0	6.5	1.5	1.5	0.0	0.5	36.4%	0.0%	0.1	72.7%	16.3%
10	Terrell Gaines	PG	So	5'8"	5-0	5.0	1.8	0.2	0.0	0.8	31.3%	20.0%	1.0	100.0%	27.1%

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Air Force2025-26 numbers

ESPN hasn't posted Air Force's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
3	Kam Sanders	G	Fr	6'3"	32-32	29.9	12.5	4.2	3.8	2.3	45.3%	36.0%	3.6	73.0%	28.8%
24	Lucas Hobin	F	Fr	6'8"	32-25	29.0	11.4	2.0	0.6	1.3	47.5%	31.8%	6.9	83.3%	24.8%
30	Eli Robinson	F	So	6'6"	31-31	28.0	7.8	5.2	1.6	1.8	52.2%	35.9%	1.3	65.8%	19.2%
21	Ethan Greenberg	G	Fr	6'4"	32-29	26.9	6.6	2.3	1.0	1.1	49.2%	34.2%	4.8	65.2%	16.9%
51	Wesley Celichowski	C	Jr	7'0"	32-29	20.7	4.8	2.4	1.3	1.1	43.5%	16.4%	1.9	53.3%	18.2%
10	Caleb Walker	F	Jr	6'9"	24-6	21.6	10.4	5.0	0.8	2.0	66.9%	0.0%	0.0	46.4%	28.6%
2	A.J. Patterson	G	So	6'3"	29-0	14.3	2.2	1.9	1.8	1.7	42.7%	14.3%	0.2	60.7%	16.9%
32	Kolby Gilles	F	Jr	6'5"	32-5	12.8	3.2	1.7	0.6	1.6	47.0%	13.6%	0.7	57.1%	22.5%
15	Justin Hinds	G	Fr	6'5"	29-3	11.5	1.4	1.4	0.5	0.7	30.0%	16.1%	1.1	58.3%	14.4%
5	Riley Dering	F	Fr	6'9"	14-0	13.5	5.4	2.8	0.0	0.4	62.7%	66.7%	0.2	66.7%	20.0%
35	Kyle Marshall	G	So	6'4"	4-0	16.5	3.5	2.8	2.0	0.3	41.2%	0.0%	0.5	0.0%	17.2%
11	Brendan Martin	F	Fr	6'6"	12-0	5.4	1.8	0.4	0.2	0.2	52.4%	26.7%	1.3	0.0%	21.4%
0	Josh Gatete	F	Jr	6'9"	14-0	4.4	0.3	0.4	0.4	0.8	21.4%	25.0%	0.3	50.0%	18.0%
33	Sam Imade	F	Fr	6'7"	10-0	3.4	0.8	0.1	0.0	0.0	40.0%	50.0%	0.4	—	17.7%
7	Elliott Taite	G	So	6'4"	11-0	1.8	1.6	0.2	0.2	0.1	69.2%	57.1%	0.6	0.0%	42.2%
25	Chris Catchings	G	Fr	6'4"	5-0	2.0	0.0	0.4	0.8	0.2	0.0%	0.0%	0.4	—	24.2%
8	Keaton Frisch	F	Fr	6'6"	1-0	1.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	0.0%

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Trends

Last 10 games of 2025-26

Air Force

Against the spread

Season

10-20-2

Home

4-12-2

Road

6-6

Last 10

2-7-1

avg cover −4.0

Missed the spread in the last gameCovered 2 of 10 as an underdog, 1 pushCovered 2 of 9 with a line of 10+

Over / under

Season

19-12-1

Home

13-5

Road

6-5-1

Last 10

7-3

avg vs total +3.5

Under 2 straightOver in 7 of 10 as an underdogOver in 6 of 9 with a line of 10+

Last 10 games, newest first

Date	Opponent	Site	Result			Total		PPP for	PPP vs	Pace
Mar 11	NevadaAdjEM #71	N	L 45–80	+19.0	L−16.0	141.0	U125	63.2	112.3	71.2
Mar 7	NevadaAdjEM #71	A	L 59–74	+25.5	W+10.5	145.0	U133	91.1	114.2	64.8
Mar 3	Grand CanyonAdjEM #65	H	L 60–86	+19.0	L−7.0	143.0	O146	87.4	125.3	68.7
Feb 28	WyomingAdjEM #98	A	L 62–66	+21.5	W+17.5	146.5	U128	95.0	101.1	65.3
Feb 24	San José StAdjEM #282	H	L 80–86	+6.0	P0.0	145.0	O166	120.8	129.8	66.2
Feb 21	UNLVAdjEM #124	H	L 66–91	+16.5	L−8.5	153.0	O157	95.7	132.0	69.0
Feb 17	New MexicoAdjEM #42	A	L 61–98	+28.0	L−9.0	148.5	O159	86.3	138.6	70.7
Feb 14	Fresno StAdjEM #169	A	L 63–93	+15.0	L−15.0	142.0	O156	86.4	127.5	72.9
Feb 10	Colorado StAdjEM #88	H	L 74–91	+16.5	L−0.5	137.5	O165	113.4	139.4	65.3
Feb 7	San Diego StAdjEM #53	H	L 54–88	+21.5	L−12.5	140.0	O142	77.0	125.4	70.2

Austin Peay

Against the spread

Season

14-14-1

Home

7-4

Road

7-8-1

Last 10

4-6

avg cover −0.9

Missed the spread 6 straightCovered 3 of 9 as a favorite

Over / under

Season

14-15

Home

6-5

Road

7-9

Last 10

7-3

avg vs total +8.2

Over in the last gameOver in 6 of 9 as a favorite

Last 10 games, newest first

Date	Opponent	Site	Result			Total		PPP for	PPP vs	Pace
Mar 7	QueensAdjEM #191	N	L 83–90	−2.0	L−9.0	161.5	O173	114.1	123.8	72.7
Mar 6	StetsonAdjEM #322	N	W 69–60	−12.5	L−3.5	153.0	U129	109.7	95.4	62.9
Feb 28	BellarmineAdjEM #281	A	L 97–111	−5.5	L−19.5	155.0	O208	117.3	134.2	82.7
Feb 25	C ArkansasAdjEM #139	H	L 88–93	−5.0	L−10.0	151.5	O181	129.9	137.2	67.8
Feb 21	JacksonvilleAdjEM #294	A	W 65–61	−5.5	L−1.5	142.5	U126	107.6	101.0	60.4
Feb 19	North FloridaAdjEM #338	A	W 77–76	−11.0	L−10.0	165.5	U153	98.7	97.5	78.0
Feb 14	BellarmineAdjEM #281	H	W 90–70	−9.5	W+10.5	153.0	O160	148.8	115.7	60.5
Feb 11	QueensAdjEM #191	A	W 95–87	+2.5	W+10.5	161.0	O182	128.9	118.1	73.7
Feb 7	North AlabamaAdjEM #343	H	W 91–62	−12.5	W+16.5	145.5	O153	147.3	100.4	61.8
Feb 4	LipscombAdjEM #179	H	W 87–76	−4.5	W+6.5	157.0	O163	120.9	105.6	71.9

Records vs the closing line describe the past; ten games is a small sample.

Tale of the tape

national rank toned left for away, right for home

Air ForceAustin Peay

Efficiency

97.8

108.7

114.2

107.1

67.6

69.5

—

Shooting

48.9%

53.0%

51.1%

53.0%

30.6%

35.3%

64.1%

73.4%

35.1%

37.6%

Ball control & glass

21.9%

15.4%

15.1%

17.9%

21.4%

29.7%

31.3%

28.9%

11.8%

9.3%

11.9%

8.7%

Style

41.8%

38.0%

46.5%

46.1%

10.5%

15.2%

55.9%

56.0%

32.1%

29.5%

Roster

1.73

2.72

6'6.2"

6'5.4"

—

Offseason

roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model input

Air Force

Returning minutes: 100.0%Returning production: 100.0%

ESPN hasn't posted Air Force's roster for this season yet — no movement to show.

Returns 100% of last season's minutes. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026). (ESPN hasn't posted this season's roster yet -- this may still be last season's list.)

Austin Peay

Returning minutes: 100.0%Returning production: 100.0%

ESPN hasn't posted Austin Peay's roster for this season yet — no movement to show.

Head-to-head

this season and last

Date	Season	Result
Sat, Nov 8	2025-26	Austin Peay 74 – 54 Air Force

The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — Pinnacle's spread and total (the median across books when Pinnacle has no line). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, built bottom-up from those same numbers: expected possessions times each side's opponent-adjusted points per possession, plus home court.

What these numbers mean: line shopping.