CBB Matchups
Every D1 game with tempo-free ratings, four factors and market lines, one place.
College basketball is being built for the 2026-27 season (tip-off Nov 3). What's here fills in as games are played.
Non-conferenceBob Carpenter Center, Newark, DE
William & Mary
Efficiency #127
2025-26: 20-12 · 11-9 conf
@
Delaware
Efficiency #302
2025-26: 10-21 · 6-14 conf
Thu, Dec 10 · 7:00 PM ET
76.9
win 60%
Projected
74.1
win 40%
No line posted yet.
Model: W&M −2.8 · total 151.0 · ratings as of Sat, Oct 3
Preseason ratings start from 2025-26's final adjusted ratings, regressed toward the D1 average. The stats below are 2025-26's too; both update once 2026-27 games are played.
How the projection is built
each step, from an average D-I game to this oneProjected total
Average D-I game
148.2
PaceAdjusted tempo: Delaware 65.5, William & Mary 71.8 → 69.0 possessions
+1.6
Delaware offense vs William & Mary defense
−2.8
William & Mary offense vs Delaware defense
+4.0
Projected total
151.0
Axis starts at 144 pointsPoints added or removed at each step
Projected margin
Even game
0.0
Delaware offense vs William & Mary defense
−2.8
William & Mary offense vs Delaware defense
−4.0
Home court+2.9 points per 100 possessions to the home offense, −2.9 to the visitors
+4.0
William & Mary by 2.8
2.8
William & Mary side ◂▸ Delaware side
Steps are rounded to one decimal, so they can differ from the total by 0.1. The margin is the same build seen from the home side; positive numbers help Delaware.
Pace & total
possessions per 40 minutesTempo, possessions per 40 minutes
Projected possessions: 69.0, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw 2025-26 season pace, William & Mary is the faster team (73.6, #9 of 365) and Delaware the slower (63.9, #356). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (study weights 0.80 vs 0.66).
Projected possessions
69.0
per team, 40 min
Projected total
151.0
model
Projected team totals
76.9 / 74.1
William & Mary / Delaware
Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent
71.8#6
William & Mary
65.5#356
Delaware
How this game plays
what the study found each side's numbers actually do when these two teams meetPace
Tempo tug-of-war
Delaware averages 63.9 possessions per 40, William & Mary 73.6. Slower teams pull the pace toward themselves more than fast teams push it (0.80 vs 0.66 in five seasons of games), so expect about 68 — more possessions mean more points in the total and more chances for the better team to separate.
ClashWilliam & Mary
Style match: ball movement
William & Mary assists on 63.8% of its made baskets; Delaware allows assists on 60.7% of opponents' baskets (D1 average 52.4%). Expect about 65.2% — both habits push the same way.
AdvantageDelaware
Where Delaware struggles: the offensive glass
Delaware rebounds 20.8% of its own misses (#362); William & Mary lets opponents grab 31.5% of their own misses (#229). Expect about 24.2%, 6.2 points below an average D1 matchup — worth roughly -3.8 points per 100 possessions.
TurnoversDelaware
Delaware turns it over
Projected turnover rate of 19.0% is worth roughly -2.8 points per 100 possessions against Delaware's offense.
ClashDelaware
Style match: 3-point volume
Delaware takes 46.2% of its shots from three; William & Mary lets opponents take 45.5% of their shots from three (D1 average 39.5%). Expect about 48.7% — both habits push the same way.
AdvantageWilliam & Mary
Where William & Mary scores: shooting
William & Mary shoots an effective 54.3% (#58); Delaware allows 51.5% (#185). Expect about 53.1%, 1.9 points above an average D1 matchup — worth roughly +2.6 points per 100 possessions.
William & Mary has the ball
OffenseDelaware allowsvs D1 avg
54.3% #58
51.5% #185
+2.6 pt/100
16.5% #169
14.0% #334
+2.3 pt/100
26.0% #324
31.1% #206
-1.7 pt/100
44.0% #9
30.2% #62
+0.2 pt/100
74.9% #87
—
+0.2 pt/100
William & Mary net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: +3.6 pts/100
Delaware has the ball
OffenseWilliam & Mary allowsvs D1 avg
53.3% #89
51.9% #205
+2.1 pt/100
18.2% #285
19.0% #48
-2.8 pt/100
20.8% #362
31.5% #229
-3.8 pt/100
30.6% #291
35.5% #195
-0.2 pt/100
78.6% #10
—
+0.5 pt/100
Delaware net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: -4.2 pts/100
Shot diet
Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot · 2025-26 numbersWilliam & Maryoffense vsDelawaredefense
Share of shots by zone
William & Mary shoots
43.8
4.6
8.6
43.0
Delaware allows
33.6
5.7
17.4
43.3
D-I average
38.5
6.4
15.8
39.3
FG% by zone
| Zone | D-I avg | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Rim | 64.0%#37 | 59.3%#206 | 58.6% |
| Short 2 (≤9 ft) | 32.0%#332 | 38.0%#136 | 39.5% |
| Mid 2 (10 ft+) | 39.7%#120 | 36.1%#112 | 38.0% |
| Three | 33.0%#233 | 35.1%#255 | 33.7% |
Delawareoffense vsWilliam & Marydefense
Share of shots by zone
Delaware shoots
33.1
6.3
14.6
46.0
William & Mary allows
38.6
4.2
11.3
45.8
D-I average
38.5
6.4
15.8
39.3
FG% by zone
| Zone | D-I avg | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Rim | 58.4%#179 | 59.9%#222 | 58.6% |
| Short 2 (≤9 ft) | 39.6%#185 | 34.2%#48 | 39.5% |
| Mid 2 (10 ft+) | 39.0%#144 | 40.2%#249 | 38.0% |
| Three | 36.8%#31 | 33.1%#126 | 33.7% |
RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three
Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).
Shot volume
Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line · 2025-26 numbersWilliam & Mary
+2.3extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#83 of 365
Off reb %
26.0%
#324
Def reb %
68.5%
#229
Turnover %
16.5%
#169
Forced TO %
19.0%
#48
FT rate
44.0%
#9
FT allowed
35.5%
#195
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding−1.4
Defensive rebounding−0.3
Ball security+0.2
Forcing turnovers+1.6
Foul shots drawn+2.3
Foul shots allowed−0.1
Delaware
−5.9extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#355 of 365
Off reb %
20.8%
#362
Def reb %
68.9%
#206
Turnover %
18.2%
#285
Forced TO %
14.0%
#334
FT rate
30.6%
#291
FT allowed
30.2%
#62
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding−3.1
Defensive rebounding−0.1
Ball security−1.0
Forcing turnovers−1.8
Foul shots drawn−1.1
Foul shots allowed+1.3
William & Mary has more extra scoring chances per game: +2.3 (#83 of 365) to Delaware’s −5.9 (#355).
Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).
Rotation
William & Mary2025-26 numbers
| # | Player | Pos | Cl | Ht | GP-GS | MPG | PPG | RPG | APG | TOV | eFG% | 3P% | 3PA/g | FT% | Usage | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Tunde Vahlberg Fasasi | F | Jr | 6'8" | 32-31 | 26.8 | 11.9 | 4.1 | 2.5 | 1.4 | 55.0% | 35.0% | 4.5 | 78.7% | 23.4% | |
| 2 | Chase Lowe | G | Sr | 6'5" | 32-32 | 23.4 | 9.2 | 5.8 | 3.8 | 1.7 | 58.0% | 11.1% | 0.3 | 72.8% | 21.0% | |
| 0 | Reese Miller | G | Jr | 6'4" | 30-0 | 24.5 | 12.1 | 2.5 | 2.4 | 1.4 | 52.9% | 32.8% | 4.3 | 73.4% | 27.1% | |
| 11 | Kyle Pulliam | G | Sr | 6'4" | 30-29 | 24.4 | 10.4 | 3.4 | 1.9 | 1.0 | 51.7% | 30.1% | 3.1 | 82.0% | 21.9% | |
| 23 | Jo'el Emanuel | F | Sr | 6'6" | 31-4 | 22.1 | 8.5 | 3.0 | 1.6 | 1.3 | 58.2% | 33.3% | 1.4 | 69.6% | 20.0% | |
| 15 | Ryan Jackson Jr. | G | So | 6'6" | 31-0 | 18.6 | 7.0 | 3.0 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 69.4% | 52.4% | 0.7 | 67.9% | 16.8% | |
| 1 | Cade Haskins | F | Sr | 6'6" | 32-31 | 16.9 | 6.3 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 51.8% | 34.4% | 4.1 | 76.5% | 21.3% | |
| 8 | Jhei-R Jones | G | Sr | 6'1" | 24-0 | 17.7 | 5.4 | 2.2 | 1.5 | 1.2 | 52.2% | 33.3% | 2.0 | 82.9% | 17.8% | |
| 43 | Finn Lally | F | Sr | 6'8" | 25-1 | 10.0 | 3.9 | 1.9 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 56.5% | 38.5% | 1.0 | 66.7% | 21.1% | |
| 7 | Kyle Frazier | G | Sr | 6'2" | 16-1 | 5.6 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.0 | 39.1% | 22.2% | 1.1 | 69.2% | 17.2% | |
| 24 | Kaleb Spencer | F | Fr | 6'8" | 6-0 | 5.7 | 3.0 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 56.7% | 25.0% | 0.7 | 33.3% | 30.8% | |
| 6 | Colin Ndaw | G | So | 6'3" | 5-0 | 5.6 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 33.3% | 0.0% | 0.6 | 66.7% | 25.9% | |
| 5 | Ethan Connery | G | Jr | 6'3" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 25 | Miles Hicks | G | Sr | 6'1" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — |
Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.
Delaware2025-26 numbers
ESPN hasn't posted Delaware's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.
| # | Player | Pos | Cl | Ht | GP-GS | MPG | PPG | RPG | APG | TOV | eFG% | 3P% | 3PA/g | FT% | Usage | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 00 | Christian Bliss | G | Jr | 6'4" | 31-31 | 39.8 | 16.7 | 5.2 | 5.9 | 3.1 | 51.5% | 39.2% | 5.5 | 84.8% | 27.4% | |
| 5 | Macon Emory | F | So | 6'8" | 31-31 | 37.1 | 11.3 | 6.6 | 1.2 | 1.7 | 49.8% | 28.5% | 4.9 | 75.4% | 21.0% | |
| 4 | Justyn Fernandez | G | Sr | 6'5" | 28-28 | 37.4 | 16.6 | 4.6 | 2.1 | 3.0 | 52.9% | 40.3% | 5.7 | 87.8% | 29.6% | |
| 20 | Alex Kazanecki | G | Fr | 6'6" | 31-13 | 28.7 | 5.1 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 57.5% | 37.1% | 3.1 | 72.2% | 10.9% | |
| 44 | Tyler Houser | F | Sr | 6'9" | 26-26 | 33.3 | 14.2 | 5.4 | 1.7 | 1.3 | 57.4% | 38.3% | 4.1 | 81.7% | 24.6% | |
| 11 | Jayden Taylor | F | Fr | 6'8" | 31-10 | 15.3 | 3.1 | 2.4 | 0.2 | 0.5 | 61.7% | 33.3% | 0.4 | 61.8% | 12.4% | |
| 15 | Houston Emory | F | Sr | 6'9" | 24-5 | 11.1 | 1.7 | 1.6 | 0.3 | 0.6 | 72.7% | 100.0% | 0.1 | 50.0% | 10.3% | |
| 1 | Mason Ellison | G | Fr | 6'4" | 7-1 | 21.3 | 4.7 | 1.3 | 0.9 | 1.3 | 40.6% | 16.7% | 1.7 | 58.3% | 18.1% | |
| 55 | Jameel Brown | G | Sr | 6'4" | 4-4 | 23.5 | 9.8 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 1.8 | 46.9% | 42.1% | 4.8 | 75.0% | 27.8% | |
| 35 | Bouna Kebe | F | Sr | 6'9" | 14-5 | 5.7 | 1.2 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 42.5% | 12.5% | 0.6 | 0.0% | 17.4% | |
| 21 | Nnanna Njoku | F | Sr | 6'9" | 2-0 | 14.0 | 2.0 | 1.5 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 14.3% | 0.0% | 0.5 | 50.0% | 25.0% | |
| 3 | Cavan Reilly | G | Sr | 6'4" | 1-1 | 23.0 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 2.0 | 12.5% | 0.0% | 5.0 | 50.0% | 26.2% | |
| 10 | Brandon Baffone | G | Jr | 6'1" | 5-0 | 2.8 | 0.4 | 0.0 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0% | — | 0.0 | 100.0% | 8.4% | |
| 12 | Alex McFadden | G | So | 6'1" | 4-0 | 2.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.0 | 50.0% | — | 0.0 | 50.0% | 27.4% | |
| 14 | Lance Piper | G | So | 6'6" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — |
Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.
William & Mary2025-26 numbers
| # | Player | Pos | Cl | Ht | GP-GS | MPG | PPG | RPG | APG | TOV | eFG% | 3P% | 3PA/g | FT% | Usage | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Tunde Vahlberg Fasasi | F | Jr | 6'8" | 32-31 | 26.8 | 11.9 | 4.1 | 2.5 | 1.4 | 55.0% | 35.0% | 4.5 | 78.7% | 23.4% | |
| 2 | Chase Lowe | G | Sr | 6'5" | 32-32 | 23.4 | 9.2 | 5.8 | 3.8 | 1.7 | 58.0% | 11.1% | 0.3 | 72.8% | 21.0% | |
| 0 | Reese Miller | G | Jr | 6'4" | 30-0 | 24.5 | 12.1 | 2.5 | 2.4 | 1.4 | 52.9% | 32.8% | 4.3 | 73.4% | 27.1% | |
| 11 | Kyle Pulliam | G | Sr | 6'4" | 30-29 | 24.4 | 10.4 | 3.4 | 1.9 | 1.0 | 51.7% | 30.1% | 3.1 | 82.0% | 21.9% | |
| 23 | Jo'el Emanuel | F | Sr | 6'6" | 31-4 | 22.1 | 8.5 | 3.0 | 1.6 | 1.3 | 58.2% | 33.3% | 1.4 | 69.6% | 20.0% | |
| 15 | Ryan Jackson Jr. | G | So | 6'6" | 31-0 | 18.6 | 7.0 | 3.0 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 69.4% | 52.4% | 0.7 | 67.9% | 16.8% | |
| 1 | Cade Haskins | F | Sr | 6'6" | 32-31 | 16.9 | 6.3 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 51.8% | 34.4% | 4.1 | 76.5% | 21.3% | |
| 8 | Jhei-R Jones | G | Sr | 6'1" | 24-0 | 17.7 | 5.4 | 2.2 | 1.5 | 1.2 | 52.2% | 33.3% | 2.0 | 82.9% | 17.8% | |
| 43 | Finn Lally | F | Sr | 6'8" | 25-1 | 10.0 | 3.9 | 1.9 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 56.5% | 38.5% | 1.0 | 66.7% | 21.1% | |
| 7 | Kyle Frazier | G | Sr | 6'2" | 16-1 | 5.6 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.0 | 39.1% | 22.2% | 1.1 | 69.2% | 17.2% | |
| 24 | Kaleb Spencer | F | Fr | 6'8" | 6-0 | 5.7 | 3.0 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 56.7% | 25.0% | 0.7 | 33.3% | 30.8% | |
| 6 | Colin Ndaw | G | So | 6'3" | 5-0 | 5.6 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 33.3% | 0.0% | 0.6 | 66.7% | 25.9% | |
| 5 | Ethan Connery | G | Jr | 6'3" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 25 | Miles Hicks | G | Sr | 6'1" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — |
Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.
Trends
Last 10 games of 2025-26William & Mary
Against the spread
Season
16-14
Home
6-5
Road
7-8
Last 10
3-7
avg cover −2.5
Missed the spread in the last gameCovered 2 of 8 as a favorite
Over / under
Season
12-17-1
Home
5-6
Road
6-9
Last 10
3-6-1
avg vs total −0.3
Over in 2 of 8 as a favorite
Last 10 games, newest first
| Date | Opponent | Site | Result | Total | PPP for | PPP vs | Pace | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 8 | Hofstra | N | L 61–92 | +2.5 | L−28.5 | 153.0 | P153 | 92.8 | 140.0 | 65.7 |
| Mar 7 | Elon | N | W 72–62 | −5.5 | W+4.5 | 163.5 | U134 | 106.4 | 91.6 | 67.7 |
| Mar 3 | Hampton | H | W 94–85 | −11.5 | L−2.5 | 154.0 | O179 | 130.3 | 117.9 | 72.1 |
| Feb 28 | NC A&T | A | W 91–88 | −7.0 | L−4.0 | 163.5 | O179 | 121.0 | 117.0 | 75.2 |
| Feb 26 | Northeastern | H | W 84–77 | −11.0 | L−4.0 | 164.5 | U161 | 105.1 | 96.4 | 79.9 |
| Feb 19 | Campbell | A | L 83–84 | −2.5 | L−3.5 | 167.5 | U167 | 111.8 | 113.1 | 74.3 |
| Feb 14 | Elon | H | L 78–81 | −8.0 | L−11.0 | 165.5 | U159 | 109.6 | 113.8 | 71.2 |
| Feb 12 | Northeastern | A | W 94–67 | −5.5 | W+21.5 | 167.5 | U161 | 135.0 | 96.2 | 69.7 |
| Feb 7 | Hampton | A | L 74–77 | −5.5 | L−8.5 | 152.0 | U151 | 103.6 | 107.7 | 71.5 |
| Feb 5 | UNC Wilmington | A | W 85–78 | +4.5 | W+11.5 | 159.0 | O163 | 125.9 | 115.6 | 67.5 |
Delaware
Against the spread
Season
14-15-1
Home
6-7-1
Road
7-7
Last 10
7-3
avg cover +0.9
Missed the spread in the last gameCovered 7 of 10 as an underdog
Over / under
Season
16-14
Home
10-4
Road
6-8
Last 10
8-2
avg vs total +13.9
Under in the last gameOver in 8 of 10 as an underdog
Last 10 games, newest first
| Date | Opponent | Site | Result | Total | PPP for | PPP vs | Pace | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 7 | Louisiana Tech | H | L 38–81 | +2.0 | L−41.0 | 132.5 | U119 | 60.3 | 128.5 | 63.0 |
| Mar 5 | Sam Houston | H | W 83–80 | +7.5 | W+10.5 | 148.0 | O163 | 116.7 | 112.4 | 71.2 |
| Feb 28 | Kennesaw St | A | L 82–90 | +12.0 | W+4.0 | 143.0 | O172 | 117.9 | 129.4 | 69.5 |
| Feb 26 | Jax State | A | L 70–80 OT | +7.5 | L−2.5 | 134.0 | O150 | 104.8 | 119.8 | 66.8 |
| Feb 21 | MTSU | A | L 66–78 | +10.0 | L−2.0 | 137.5 | O144 | 106.5 | 125.8 | 62.0 |
| Feb 18 | Western KY | H | L 87–88 OT | +4.0 | W+3.0 | 139.5 | O175 | 125.3 | 126.7 | 69.4 |
| Feb 14 | Missouri St | A | W 76–67 | +8.5 | W+17.5 | 135.0 | O143 | 121.0 | 106.7 | 62.8 |
| Feb 12 | FIU | A | W 68–66 | +8.5 | W+10.5 | 146.5 | U134 | 101.9 | 98.9 | 66.8 |
| Feb 7 | MTSU | H | W 89–88 OT | +4.5 | W+5.5 | 133.5 | O177 | 129.9 | 128.5 | 68.5 |
| Feb 4 | Liberty | H | L 69–75 | +10.0 | W+4.0 | 132.0 | O144 | 110.6 | 120.2 | 62.4 |
Records vs the closing line describe the past; ten games is a small sample.
Tale of the tape
national rank toned left for away, right for homeWilliam & MaryDelaware
Efficiency
110.1
105.2
107.7
112.6
71.8
65.5
—
—
Shooting
54.3%
53.3%
57.9%
51.7%
33.0%
36.8%
74.9%
78.6%
44.0%
30.6%
Ball control & glass
16.5%
18.2%
19.0%
14.0%
26.0%
20.8%
31.5%
31.1%
9.9%
11.4%
9.8%
10.4%
Style
42.8%
46.2%
43.3%
36.8%
19.6%
6.9%
63.8%
52.3%
43.8%
15.7%
Roster
3.49
2.72
6'5.3"
6'6.4"
89.1%
—
Offseason
roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model inputWilliam & Mary
Returning minutes: 89.1%Returning production: 88.7%
Lost
- Kilian Brockhoff 21.7 mpg, 10.7 ppg · transferred to E Michigan
Added
- Miles Hicks no D1 minutes last season
- Ethan Connery no D1 minutes last season
No incoming D1 transfers are listed on ESPN's roster yet — until they are, returning shares read high.
Returns 89% of last season's minutes; lost 1 of its top 5 (1 transferred). Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026).
Delaware
Returning minutes: 100.0%Returning production: 100.0%
ESPN hasn't posted Delaware's roster for this season yet — no movement to show.
Returns 100% of last season's minutes. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026). (ESPN hasn't posted this season's roster yet -- this may still be last season's list.)
Head-to-head
this season and lastNo meetings the last two seasons.
The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — Pinnacle's spread and total (the median across books when Pinnacle has no line). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, built bottom-up from those same numbers: expected possessions times each side's opponent-adjusted points per possession, plus home court.
What these numbers mean: line shopping.