CBB Matchups

Every D1 game with tempo-free ratings, four factors and market lines, one place.

College basketball is being built for the 2026-27 season (tip-off Nov 3). What's here fills in as games are played.

Non-conferenceCarver-Hawkeye Arena, Iowa City, IA

Iowa State

Efficiency #7

2025-26: 29-8 · 14-7 conf

Iowa

Efficiency #22

2025-26: 24-13 · 11-11 conf

Thu, Dec 10 · TBD

71.7

win 52%

Projected

71.2

win 48%

No line posted yet.

Model: ISU −0.5 · total 142.9 · ratings as of Sat, Oct 3

Preseason ratings start from 2025-26's final adjusted ratings, regressed toward the D1 average. The stats below are 2025-26's too; both update once 2026-27 games are played.

How the projection is built

each step, from an average D-I game to this one

Projected total

Average D-I game

148.2

PaceAdjusted tempo: Iowa 65.0, Iowa State 68.2 → 65.0 possessions

−7.3

Iowa offense vs Iowa State defense

−1.1

Iowa State offense vs Iowa defense

+3.1

Projected total

142.9

Axis starts at 135 pointsPoints added or removed at each step

Projected margin

Even game

0.0

Iowa offense vs Iowa State defense

−1.1

Iowa State offense vs Iowa defense

−3.1

Home court+2.9 points per 100 possessions to the home offense, −2.9 to the visitors

+3.7

Iowa State by 0.5

0.5

Iowa State side ◂▸ Iowa side

Steps are rounded to one decimal, so they can differ from the total by 0.1. The margin is the same build seen from the home side; positive numbers help Iowa.

Pace & total

possessions per 40 minutes

Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes

Projected possessions: 65.0, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw 2025-26 season pace, Iowa State is the faster team (68.5, #173 of 365) and Iowa the slower (62.8, #365). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (study weights 0.80 vs 0.66).

Projected possessions

65.0

per team, 40 min

Projected total

142.9

model

Projected team totals

71.7 / 71.2

Iowa State / Iowa

Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent

68.2#188

Iowa State

65.0#363

Iowa

How this game plays

what the study found each side's numbers actually do when these two teams meet

AdvantageIowa State

Where Iowa State scores: shooting

Iowa State shoots an effective 56.2% (#20); Iowa allows 52.6% (#245). Expect about 54.8%, 3.5 points above an average D1 matchup — worth roughly +5.0 points per 100 possessions.

Pace

Tempo tug-of-war

Iowa averages 62.8 possessions per 40, Iowa State 68.5. Slower teams pull the pace toward themselves more than fast teams push it (0.80 vs 0.66 in five seasons of games), so expect about 64 — more possessions mean more points in the total and more chances for the better team to separate.

AdvantageIowa

Where Iowa struggles: ball control

Iowa turns it over on 15.1% of possessions (#73); Iowa State forces turnovers on 22.6% of opponent possessions (#4). Expect about 19.5%, 2.7 points above an average D1 matchup — worth roughly -3.4 points per 100 possessions.

Watch for noise

3-point caution

A notable season 3-point number here (Iowa State) is close to a coin flip going forward — the study's model of next-game 3P% barely beats guessing the D1 average. Shot volume is what actually carries: expect Iowa State at about 39.3% of its shots from three, Iowa about 44.3%.

ClashIowa

Strength vs strength: live-ball turnovers

Iowa (#41 in live-ball turnovers) against Iowa State (#9 in the same stat allowed) — both rank inside the national top 60. Expect about 11.3%. Historically Iowa State's own number has carried a bit more weight in that exchange (0.40 vs 0.65).

GlassIowa State

Iowa State owns the glass

Projected offensive rebound rate of 33.1% is worth roughly +1.7 points per 100 possessions for Iowa State's offense.

Iowa State has the ball

OffenseIowa allowsvs D1 avg

56.2% #20

52.6% #245

+5.0 pt/100

14.9% #59

20.3% #17

-1.5 pt/100

35.2% #45

29.2% #119

+1.7 pt/100

34.5% #194

38.5% #272

+0.2 pt/100

67.5% #333

—

-0.4 pt/100

Iowa State net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: +5.0 pts/100

Iowa has the ball

OffenseIowa State allowsvs D1 avg

56.4% #17

49.8% #92

+3.1 pt/100

15.1% #73

22.6% #4

-3.4 pt/100

30.2% #192

28.6% #85

-0.6 pt/100

35.1% #176

28.1% #33

-0.5 pt/100

76.9% #34

—

+0.4 pt/100

Iowa net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: -1.0 pts/100

Shot diet

Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot · 2025-26 numbers

Iowa Stateoffense vsIowadefense

Share of shots by zone

Iowa State shoots

38.2

8.6

14.9

38.3

Iowa allows

37.6

6.4

16.4

39.7

D-I average

38.5

6.4

15.8

39.3

FG% by zone

Zone			D-I avg
Rim	65.2%#20	65.5%#354	58.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)	38.1%#220	44.2%#273	39.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)	37.3%#210	32.5%#21	38.0%
Three	38.3%#12	33.3%#141	33.7%

Iowaoffense vsIowa Statedefense

Share of shots by zone

Iowa shoots

38.4

7.1

11.5

43.0

Iowa State allows

29.2

8.4

19.4

43.0

D-I average

38.5

6.4

15.8

39.3

FG% by zone

Zone			D-I avg
Rim	64.8%#25	63.4%#332	58.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)	41.1%#145	39.4%#168	39.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)	44.0%#26	34.6%#64	38.0%
Three	35.6%#85	32.0%#63	33.7%

RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three

Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).

Shot volume

Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line · 2025-26 numbers

Iowa State

+9.2extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#2 of 365

Off reb %

35.2%

#45

Def reb %

71.4%

#85

Turnover %

14.9%

#59

Forced TO %

22.6%

FT rate

34.5%

#194

FT allowed

28.1%

#33

Where the chances come from (per game)

Offensive rebounding+1.5

Defensive rebounding+0.7

Ball security+1.3

Forcing turnovers+4.0

Foul shots drawn−0.1

Foul shots allowed+1.8

Iowa

+3.2extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#51 of 365

Off reb %

30.2%

#192

Def reb %

70.8%

#119

Turnover %

15.1%

#73

Forced TO %

20.3%

#17

FT rate

35.1%

#176

FT allowed

38.5%

#272

Where the chances come from (per game)

Offensive rebounding−0.1

Defensive rebounding+0.5

Ball security+1.1

Forcing turnovers+2.5

Foul shots drawn0.0

Foul shots allowed−0.8

Iowa State has more extra scoring chances per game: +9.2 (#2 of 365) to Iowa’s +3.2 (#51).

Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).

Rotation

Iowa State2025-26 numbers

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
27	Killyan Toure	G	Fr	6'3"	37-37	25.4	8.6	3.5	2.3	1.7	51.0%	31.3%	2.2	72.2%	22.1%
0	Nate Heise	G	Sr	6'5"	37-5	24.9	5.7	4.0	1.6	0.6	53.8%	32.2%	2.4	66.7%	13.4%
23	Blake Buchanan	F	Jr	6'10"	37-36	24.5	8.5	5.7	1.7	1.1	63.6%	0.0%	0.1	49.4%	19.0%
1	Jamarion Batemon	G	Fr	6'3"	37-0	15.6	6.6	1.2	0.4	0.5	51.4%	37.0%	3.9	78.8%	24.8%
21	Dominykas Pleta	F	Fr	6'11"	35-1	11.3	4.4	2.3	0.5	0.8	70.6%	—	0.0	59.6%	20.6%
11	Dominick Nelson	G	Sr	6'5"	24-0	8.3	3.7	0.9	0.3	0.7	44.4%	0.0%	0.3	60.4%	29.2%
4	Eric Mulder	F	Sr	6'9"	20-0	3.6	0.9	1.6	0.1	0.3	53.6%	100.0%	0.1	44.4%	17.6%
13	Cade Kelderman	G	Jr	6'1"	18-0	3.8	0.9	0.2	0.7	0.1	60.0%	40.0%	0.6	50.0%	12.1%
55	Xzavion Mitchell	F	Fr	6'6"	7-0	3.3	1.0	0.3	0.0	0.1	37.5%	33.3%	0.9	50.0%	23.4%
7	Anthony Rise	G	Fr	6'0"	11-0	1.4	0.2	0.5	0.0	0.1	25.0%	—	0.0	—	18.5%
2	Mason Williams	G	Jr	6'5"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Iowa2025-26 numbers

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
8	Cooper Koch	F	Fr	6'8"	37-37	28.4	7.8	3.1	1.1	0.5	58.6%	40.2%	4.4	83.3%	15.6%
11	Kael Combs	G	Jr	6'4"	37-33	26.0	6.1	2.4	2.4	1.4	54.4%	33.3%	1.5	83.7%	16.3%
6	Tavion Banks	G	Sr	6'7"	37-35	23.3	10.2	4.6	1.1	1.4	55.9%	44.2%	1.2	79.2%	26.7%
3	Cam Manyawu	F	Jr	6'9"	37-37	19.2	6.6	4.6	1.1	0.8	63.1%	—	0.0	57.5%	20.2%
23	Isaia Howard	G	So	6'5"	37-5	18.2	5.1	2.6	1.1	0.6	50.6%	28.1%	1.7	69.4%	19.0%
24	Tate Sage	G	Fr	6'7"	37-0	16.2	6.1	2.1	0.7	0.5	58.9%	38.9%	1.9	71.1%	21.3%
27	Trevin Jirak	C	Fr	6'11"	17-0	8.0	3.4	0.9	1.1	1.0	51.3%	16.7%	1.1	70.4%	30.8%
44	Joey Matteoni	F	Fr	6'9"	11-0	3.8	1.5	0.6	0.3	0.2	53.3%	—	0.0	33.3%	26.8%
10	Jacob Koch	G	So	6'2"	5-0	2.2	0.4	0.0	0.2	0.0	33.3%	0.0%	0.2	—	17.3%
5	Peyton McCollum	G	Fr	6'2"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—
20	Trey Thompson	F	Fr	6'8"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Iowa State2025-26 numbers

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
27	Killyan Toure	G	Fr	6'3"	37-37	25.4	8.6	3.5	2.3	1.7	51.0%	31.3%	2.2	72.2%	22.1%
0	Nate Heise	G	Sr	6'5"	37-5	24.9	5.7	4.0	1.6	0.6	53.8%	32.2%	2.4	66.7%	13.4%
23	Blake Buchanan	F	Jr	6'10"	37-36	24.5	8.5	5.7	1.7	1.1	63.6%	0.0%	0.1	49.4%	19.0%
1	Jamarion Batemon	G	Fr	6'3"	37-0	15.6	6.6	1.2	0.4	0.5	51.4%	37.0%	3.9	78.8%	24.8%
21	Dominykas Pleta	F	Fr	6'11"	35-1	11.3	4.4	2.3	0.5	0.8	70.6%	—	0.0	59.6%	20.6%
11	Dominick Nelson	G	Sr	6'5"	24-0	8.3	3.7	0.9	0.3	0.7	44.4%	0.0%	0.3	60.4%	29.2%
4	Eric Mulder	F	Sr	6'9"	20-0	3.6	0.9	1.6	0.1	0.3	53.6%	100.0%	0.1	44.4%	17.6%
13	Cade Kelderman	G	Jr	6'1"	18-0	3.8	0.9	0.2	0.7	0.1	60.0%	40.0%	0.6	50.0%	12.1%
55	Xzavion Mitchell	F	Fr	6'6"	7-0	3.3	1.0	0.3	0.0	0.1	37.5%	33.3%	0.9	50.0%	23.4%
7	Anthony Rise	G	Fr	6'0"	11-0	1.4	0.2	0.5	0.0	0.1	25.0%	—	0.0	—	18.5%
2	Mason Williams	G	Jr	6'5"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Trends

Last 10 games of 2025-26

Iowa State

Against the spread

Season

22-15

Home

9-8

Road

5-5

Last 10

7-3

avg cover +4.0

Missed the spread in the last gameCovered 6 of 8 as a favoriteCovered 4 of 4 with a line of 10+

Over / under

Season

16-21

Home

9-8

Road

2-8

Last 10

4-6

avg vs total +0.1

Under 2 straightOver in 3 of 8 as a favoriteOver in 2 of 4 with a line of 10+

Last 10 games, newest first

Date	Opponent	Site	Result			Total		PPP for	PPP vs	Pace
Mar 27	#6TennesseeAdjEM #13	N	L 62–76	−3.0	L−17.0	139.5	U138	91.2	111.8	68.0
Mar 22	#7KentuckyAdjEM #27	N	W 82–63	−4.5	W+14.5	146.5	U145	118.4	91.0	69.2
Mar 20	#15Tennessee StAdjEM #155	N	W 108–74	−25.0	W+9.0	147.5	O182	137.7	94.4	78.4
Mar 13	#2ArizonaAdjEM #3	N	L 80–82	+3.5	W+1.5	144.5	O162	120.8	123.9	66.2
Mar 12	#16Texas TechAdjEM #21	N	W 75–53	−5.5	W+16.5	143.5	U128	115.9	81.9	64.7
Mar 11	Arizona StAdjEM #93	N	W 91–42	−12.5	W+36.5	149.5	U133	132.3	61.1	68.8
Mar 7	Arizona StAdjEM #93	H	W 86–65	−16.5	W+4.5	148.0	O151	117.9	89.1	73.0
Mar 2	#2ArizonaAdjEM #3	A	L 57–73	+7.0	L−9.0	149.0	U130	85.4	109.3	66.8
Feb 28	#16Texas TechAdjEM #21	H	L 73–82	−9.5	L−18.5	145.0	O155	113.1	127.1	64.5
Feb 24	UtahAdjEM #177	A	W 75–59	−14.0	W+2.0	144.5	U134	110.2	86.7	68.1

Iowa

Against the spread

Season

21-16

Home

11-7

Road

5-6

Last 10

5-5

avg cover +1.4

Missed the spread in the last gameCovered 2 of 5 as a favoriteCovered 3 of 5 as an underdog

Over / under

Season

20-15-2

Home

9-8-1

Road

7-4

Last 10

4-5-1

avg vs total +1.1

Under in the last gameOver in 2 of 5 as a favoriteOver in 2 of 5 as an underdog, 1 push

Last 10 games, newest first

Date	Opponent	Site	Result			Total		PPP for	PPP vs	Pace
Mar 28	#3IllinoisAdjEM #4	N	L 59–71	+7.0	L−5.0	138.5	U130	107.6	129.5	54.8
Mar 26	#4NebraskaAdjEM #17	N	W 77–71	+1.5	W+7.5	131.0	O148	127.4	117.4	60.5
Mar 22	#1FloridaAdjEM #5	N	W 73–72	+10.0	W+11.0	145.0	P145	119.4	117.8	61.1
Mar 20	#8ClemsonAdjEM #35	N	W 67–61	−1.5	W+4.5	131.0	U128	124.7	113.6	53.7
Mar 12	Ohio StateAdjEM #31	N	L 69–72	−1.5	L−4.5	140.5	O141	118.9	124.1	58.0
Mar 11	MarylandAdjEM #198	N	W 75–64	−12.0	L−1.0	134.5	O139	114.1	97.4	65.7
Mar 8	#9NebraskaAdjEM #17	A	L 75–84 OT	+5.0	L−4.0	136.5	O159	100.7	112.8	74.5
Mar 5	#3MichiganAdjEM #1	H	L 68–71	+9.0	W+6.0	147.0	U139	104.5	109.1	65.1
Feb 28	Penn StateAdjEM #194	A	L 69–71	−9.0	L−11.0	144.0	U140	116.1	119.5	59.4
Feb 25	Ohio StateAdjEM #31	H	W 74–57	−6.0	W+11.0	140.5	U131	126.4	97.4	58.5

Records vs the closing line describe the past; ten games is a small sample.

Tale of the tape

national rank toned left for away, right for home

Iowa StateIowa

Efficiency

118.3

117.6

97.6

103.4

68.2

65.0

—

Shooting

56.2%

56.4%

55.4%

58.6%

38.3%

35.6%

67.5%

76.9%

34.5%

35.1%

Ball control & glass

14.9%

15.1%

22.6%

20.3%

35.2%

30.2%

28.6%

29.2%

9.6%

8.1%

10.2%

8.8%

Style

38.8%

43.0%

45.2%

43.9%

14.1%

9.6%

59.0%

57.7%

28.6%

32.9%

Roster

2.34

2.31

6'5.9"

6'6.8"

55.7%

68.0%

Offseason

roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model input

Iowa State

Returning minutes: 55.7%Returning production: 46.0%

Lost

Milan Momcilovic 30.4 mpg, 16.9 ppg · transferred to Kentucky
Joshua Jefferson 29.3 mpg, 15.5 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
Tamin Lipsey 29.0 mpg, 12.4 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet

Added

Mason Williams no D1 minutes last season

No incoming D1 transfers are listed on ESPN's roster yet — until they are, returning shares read high.

Returns 56% of last season's minutes; lost 3 of its top 5 (1 transferred).

Iowa

Returning minutes: 68.0%Returning production: 61.3%

Lost

Bennett Stirtz 37.8 mpg, 19.8 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
Alvaro Folgueiras 20.6 mpg, 8.4 ppg · transferred to Louisville
Brendan Hausen 5.8 mpg, 2.2 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet

Added

Peyton McCollum no D1 minutes last season
Trey Thompson no D1 minutes last season

No incoming D1 transfers are listed on ESPN's roster yet — until they are, returning shares read high.

Returns 68% of last season's minutes; lost 2 of its top 5 (1 transferred). Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026).

Head-to-head

this season and last

Date	Season	Result
Thu, Dec 11	2025-26	Iowa 62 – 66 Iowa State

The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — Pinnacle's spread and total (the median across books when Pinnacle has no line). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, built bottom-up from those same numbers: expected possessions times each side's opponent-adjusted points per possession, plus home court.

What these numbers mean: line shopping.