CBB Matchups
Every D1 game with tempo-free ratings, four factors and market lines, one place.
College basketball is being built for the 2026-27 season (tip-off Nov 3). What's here fills in as games are played.
Conference gameTownsley Law Arena, Lake Charles, LA
Incarnate Word
Efficiency #264
2025-26: 12-19 · 7-15 conf
@
McNeese
Efficiency #49
2025-26: 28-6 · 21-3 conf
Mon, Dec 7 · TBD
66.3
win 12%
Projected
79.9
win 88%
No line posted yet.
Model: MCN −13.7 · total 146.2 · ratings as of Sat, Oct 3
Preseason ratings start from 2025-26's final adjusted ratings, regressed toward the D1 average. The stats below are 2025-26's too; both update once 2026-27 games are played.
How the projection is built
each step, from an average D-I game to this oneProjected total
Average D-I game
148.2
PaceAdjusted tempo: McNeese 67.4, Incarnate Word 67.0 → 66.1 possessions
−4.8
McNeese offense vs Incarnate Word defense
+6.3
Incarnate Word offense vs McNeese defense
−3.5
Projected total
146.2
Axis starts at 140 pointsPoints added or removed at each step
Projected margin
Even game
0.0
McNeese offense vs Incarnate Word defense
+6.3
Incarnate Word offense vs McNeese defense
+3.5
Home court+2.9 points per 100 possessions to the home offense, −2.9 to the visitors
+3.8
McNeese by 13.7
13.7
Incarnate Word side ◂▸ McNeese side
Steps are rounded to one decimal, so they can differ from the total by 0.1: the margin steps add to +13.6 against +13.7. The margin is the same build seen from the home side; positive numbers help McNeese.
Pace & total
possessions per 40 minutesTempo, possessions per 40 minutes
Projected possessions: 66.1, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw 2025-26 season pace, McNeese is the faster team (66.4, #282 of 365) and Incarnate Word the slower (65.4, #318). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (study weights 0.80 vs 0.66).
Projected possessions
66.1
per team, 40 min
Projected total
146.2
model
Projected team totals
66.3 / 79.9
Incarnate Word / McNeese
Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent
67.0#290
Incarnate Word
67.4#255
McNeese
How this game plays
what the study found each side's numbers actually do when these two teams meetAdvantageIncarnate Word
Where Incarnate Word struggles: ball control
Incarnate Word turns it over on 17.2% of possessions (#215); McNeese forces turnovers on 24.5% of opponent possessions (#1). Expect about 21.9%, 5.1 points above an average D1 matchup — worth roughly -6.3 points per 100 possessions.
DefenseMcNeese
McNeese's shot-blocking
McNeese ranks #4 nationally in block rate — one of the few defensive numbers that travels. Expect about 14.0% of Incarnate Word's two-point attempts to get blocked against this defense.
Pace
Half-court grind
McNeese averages 66.4 possessions per 40, Incarnate Word 65.4. Slower teams pull the pace toward themselves more than fast teams push it (0.80 vs 0.66 in five seasons of games), so expect about 65 — more possessions mean more points in the total and more chances for the better team to separate.
DefenseMcNeese
McNeese's ball-hawking
McNeese ranks #1 nationally in steal rate — one of the few defensive numbers that travels. Expect about 13.1% of Incarnate Word's possessions to end in a steal against this defense.
AdvantageMcNeese
Where McNeese scores: ball control
McNeese turns it over on 14.2% of possessions (#28); Incarnate Word forces turnovers on 15.7% of opponent possessions (#239). Expect about 14.6%, 2.2 points below an average D1 matchup — worth roughly +2.7 points per 100 possessions.
GlassMcNeese
McNeese owns the glass
Projected offensive rebound rate of 34.5% is worth roughly +2.5 points per 100 possessions for McNeese's offense.
Incarnate Word has the ball
OffenseMcNeese allowsvs D1 avg
50.2% #228
49.3% #76
-2.3 pt/100
17.2% #215
24.5% #1
-6.3 pt/100
32.1% #120
34.9% #338
+2.1 pt/100
34.0% #210
42.1% #323
+0.5 pt/100
71.2% #233
—
-0.1 pt/100
Incarnate Word net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: -6.2 pts/100
McNeese has the ball
OffenseIncarnate Word allowsvs D1 avg
50.7% #202
54.5% #314
+1.8 pt/100
14.2% #28
15.7% #239
+2.7 pt/100
35.1% #46
32.0% #260
+2.5 pt/100
37.4% #114
41.6% #318
+0.6 pt/100
74.4% #109
—
+0.2 pt/100
McNeese net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: +7.8 pts/100
Shot diet
Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot · 2025-26 numbersIncarnate Wordoffense vsMcNeesedefense
Share of shots by zone
Incarnate Word shoots
38.3
5.1
18.1
38.4
McNeese allows
35.6
3.8
14.6
46.1
D-I average
38.5
6.4
15.8
39.3
FG% by zone
| Zone | D-I avg | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Rim | 54.3%#317 | 54.1%#42 | 58.6% |
| Short 2 (≤9 ft) | 33.3%#312 | 40.0%#191 | 39.5% |
| Mid 2 (10 ft+) | 37.7%#195 | 36.0%#109 | 38.0% |
| Three | 36.1%#54 | 32.7%#102 | 33.7% |
McNeeseoffense vsIncarnate Worddefense
Share of shots by zone
McNeese shoots
44.9
3.8
15.8
35.4
Incarnate Word allows
44.5
5.9
14.4
35.2
D-I average
38.5
6.4
15.8
39.3
FG% by zone
| Zone | D-I avg | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Rim | 57.3%#219 | 61.9%#298 | 58.6% |
| Short 2 (≤9 ft) | 43.1%#103 | 41.0%#208 | 39.5% |
| Mid 2 (10 ft+) | 40.3%#103 | 41.6%#292 | 38.0% |
| Three | 31.7%#290 | 34.4%#214 | 33.7% |
RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three
Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).
Shot volume
Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line · 2025-26 numbersIncarnate Word
−2.8extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#293 of 365
Off reb %
32.1%
#120
Def reb %
68.0%
#260
Turnover %
17.2%
#215
Forced TO %
15.7%
#239
FT rate
34.0%
#210
FT allowed
41.6%
#318
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding+0.6
Defensive rebounding−0.5
Ball security−0.3
Forcing turnovers−0.7
Foul shots drawn−0.3
Foul shots allowed−1.6
McNeese
+6.1extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#12 of 365
Off reb %
35.1%
#46
Def reb %
65.1%
#338
Turnover %
14.2%
#28
Forced TO %
24.5%
#1
FT rate
37.4%
#114
FT allowed
42.1%
#323
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding+1.5
Defensive rebounding−1.4
Ball security+1.8
Forcing turnovers+5.3
Foul shots drawn+0.6
Foul shots allowed−1.7
McNeese has more extra scoring chances per game: +6.1 (#12 of 365) to Incarnate Word’s −2.8 (#293).
Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).
Rotation
Incarnate Word2025-26 numbers
| # | Player | Pos | Cl | Ht | GP-GS | MPG | PPG | RPG | APG | TOV | eFG% | 3P% | 3PA/g | FT% | Usage | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Davion Bailey | G | Sr | 6'4" | 30-29 | 35.5 | 18.6 | 3.4 | 2.0 | 2.1 | 49.4% | 35.7% | 8.8 | 77.1% | 33.0% | |
| 10 | Harold Woods | G | Sr | 6'5" | 31-24 | 30.3 | 8.8 | 6.8 | 1.3 | 1.5 | 52.1% | 32.7% | 1.6 | 67.5% | 19.1% | |
| 7 | Jordan Pyke | F | Jr | 6'7" | 27-25 | 25.4 | 12.6 | 5.1 | 1.6 | 1.3 | 57.1% | 40.4% | 2.1 | 70.7% | 27.5% | |
| 3 | Love Bettis | G | Sr | 5'11" | 30-8 | 17.0 | 4.3 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 47.6% | 31.0% | 1.4 | 84.6% | 18.7% | |
| 8 | Marcus Glover | F | Jr | 6'8" | 29-20 | 16.5 | 3.5 | 3.4 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 50.0% | — | 0.0 | 70.3% | 13.2% | |
| 21 | Lewis Rowe | C | Sr | 6'10" | 26-9 | 14.8 | 2.3 | 2.4 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 46.0% | — | 0.0 | 33.3% | 12.1% | |
| 0 | Esteban Mann | F | Jr | 6'7" | 22-3 | 12.0 | 2.1 | 2.9 | 0.2 | 0.7 | 28.1% | 0.0% | 0.2 | 44.1% | 20.3% | |
| 9 | Mihael Tomic | G | Fr | — | 22-3 | 9.0 | 1.9 | 2.2 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 65.2% | — | 0.0 | 78.6% | 11.0% | |
| 4 | Jayden Williams | C | So | 6'9" | 22-1 | 8.0 | 2.2 | 2.1 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 62.5% | — | 0.0 | 61.5% | 15.5% | |
| 99 | Amani Drummond | G | Sr | 6'1" | 19-0 | 4.4 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 48.2% | 31.3% | 0.8 | 66.7% | 23.3% | |
| 22 | Drew Barbee | F | So | 6'5" | 5-0 | 5.6 | 2.2 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 35.7% | 50.0% | 0.4 | 75.0% | 24.9% | |
| 93 | Tyler Simon | F | Sr | 6'5" | 4-0 | 4.5 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0% | — | 0.0 | 0.0% | 7.9% | |
| 11 | Isaiah Kortas | G | So | 6'4" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — |
Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.
McNeese2025-26 numbers
| # | Player | Pos | Cl | Ht | GP-GS | MPG | PPG | RPG | APG | TOV | eFG% | 3P% | 3PA/g | FT% | Usage | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Javohn Garcia | G | Sr | 6'3" | 30-30 | 29.7 | 11.9 | 3.1 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 53.3% | 37.4% | 3.6 | 76.7% | 22.5% | |
| 8 | Tyshawn Archie | G | Jr | 6'1" | 34-24 | 25.6 | 14.3 | 1.9 | 2.9 | 1.5 | 51.2% | 36.9% | 5.2 | 90.0% | 34.2% | |
| 6 | Larry Johnson | G | Fr | 6'4" | 34-26 | 25.4 | 17.4 | 5.5 | 1.4 | 1.1 | 52.1% | 23.8% | 3.1 | 77.7% | 38.6% | |
| 2 | DJ Richards Jr. | G | Sr | 6'4" | 34-9 | 22.0 | 8.3 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 51.4% | 35.9% | 5.0 | 78.5% | 22.2% | |
| 7 | Jerrell Colbert | F | Sr | 6'10" | 34-24 | 19.8 | 5.6 | 4.1 | 0.5 | 1.1 | 55.6% | 20.0% | 0.1 | 56.0% | 18.4% | |
| 10 | Jacolb Fredson-Cole | F | So | 6'7" | 34-15 | 18.7 | 5.5 | 4.1 | 1.4 | 0.9 | 42.0% | 13.5% | 1.1 | 77.4% | 20.0% | |
| 23 | Carl Cherenfant | G | Jr | 6'5" | 33-15 | 16.3 | 4.1 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 50.5% | 21.4% | 0.8 | 73.5% | 16.4% | |
| 15 | Peitok Machar | F | So | 6'10" | 34-6 | 12.5 | 3.5 | 3.1 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 70.3% | 0.0% | 0.1 | 57.7% | 13.5% | |
| 13 | Yanis Ndjonga | F | Jr | 6'8" | 27-4 | 10.7 | 2.5 | 3.5 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 65.9% | 33.3% | 0.2 | 83.3% | 11.7% | |
| 9 | JJ Rembert | G | Fr | 5'10" | 8-0 | 4.8 | 0.5 | 0.0 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 10.0% | 0.0% | 0.4 | 100.0% | 18.0% | |
| 27 | Abdou Akim Mazou Tahirou | F | Fr | 6'10" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 14 | Erik Villarreal | G | So | 6'3" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 11 | Kaleb Brewer | G | Fr | 6'1" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 0 | T'Johnn Brown | G | Jr | 5'11" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — |
Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.
Incarnate Word2025-26 numbers
| # | Player | Pos | Cl | Ht | GP-GS | MPG | PPG | RPG | APG | TOV | eFG% | 3P% | 3PA/g | FT% | Usage | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Davion Bailey | G | Sr | 6'4" | 30-29 | 35.5 | 18.6 | 3.4 | 2.0 | 2.1 | 49.4% | 35.7% | 8.8 | 77.1% | 33.0% | |
| 10 | Harold Woods | G | Sr | 6'5" | 31-24 | 30.3 | 8.8 | 6.8 | 1.3 | 1.5 | 52.1% | 32.7% | 1.6 | 67.5% | 19.1% | |
| 7 | Jordan Pyke | F | Jr | 6'7" | 27-25 | 25.4 | 12.6 | 5.1 | 1.6 | 1.3 | 57.1% | 40.4% | 2.1 | 70.7% | 27.5% | |
| 3 | Love Bettis | G | Sr | 5'11" | 30-8 | 17.0 | 4.3 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 47.6% | 31.0% | 1.4 | 84.6% | 18.7% | |
| 8 | Marcus Glover | F | Jr | 6'8" | 29-20 | 16.5 | 3.5 | 3.4 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 50.0% | — | 0.0 | 70.3% | 13.2% | |
| 21 | Lewis Rowe | C | Sr | 6'10" | 26-9 | 14.8 | 2.3 | 2.4 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 46.0% | — | 0.0 | 33.3% | 12.1% | |
| 0 | Esteban Mann | F | Jr | 6'7" | 22-3 | 12.0 | 2.1 | 2.9 | 0.2 | 0.7 | 28.1% | 0.0% | 0.2 | 44.1% | 20.3% | |
| 9 | Mihael Tomic | G | Fr | — | 22-3 | 9.0 | 1.9 | 2.2 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 65.2% | — | 0.0 | 78.6% | 11.0% | |
| 4 | Jayden Williams | C | So | 6'9" | 22-1 | 8.0 | 2.2 | 2.1 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 62.5% | — | 0.0 | 61.5% | 15.5% | |
| 99 | Amani Drummond | G | Sr | 6'1" | 19-0 | 4.4 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 48.2% | 31.3% | 0.8 | 66.7% | 23.3% | |
| 22 | Drew Barbee | F | So | 6'5" | 5-0 | 5.6 | 2.2 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 35.7% | 50.0% | 0.4 | 75.0% | 24.9% | |
| 93 | Tyler Simon | F | Sr | 6'5" | 4-0 | 4.5 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0% | — | 0.0 | 0.0% | 7.9% | |
| 11 | Isaiah Kortas | G | So | 6'4" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — |
Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.
Trends
Last 10 games of 2025-26Incarnate Word
Against the spread
Season
11-17
Home
5-7
Road
5-9
Last 10
4-6
avg cover −1.9
Missed the spread in the last gameCovered 3 of 7 as an underdog
Over / under
Season
14-14
Home
7-5
Road
5-9
Last 10
4-6
avg vs total +3.6
Over in the last gameOver in 3 of 7 as an underdog
Last 10 games, newest first
| Date | Opponent | Site | Result | Total | PPP for | PPP vs | Pace | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 2 | SF Austin | H | L 68–76 | +7.0 | L−1.0 | 143.5 | O144 | 113.0 | 126.2 | 60.2 |
| Feb 28 | Lamar | H | W 72–60 | −1.0 | W+11.0 | 138.0 | U132 | 113.3 | 94.4 | 63.6 |
| Feb 23 | N'Western St | A | L 49–54 | +2.5 | L−2.5 | 138.0 | U103 | 81.6 | 89.9 | 60.1 |
| Feb 21 | East Texas A&M | A | W 82–73 | +4.0 | W+13.0 | 146.5 | O155 | 143.4 | 127.6 | 57.2 |
| Feb 16 | LSU N Orleans | H | L 64–78 | −2.0 | L−16.0 | 153.5 | U142 | 99.2 | 120.9 | 64.5 |
| Feb 14 | Nicholls | H | L 83–91 | −1.5 | L−9.5 | 149.0 | O174 | 126.5 | 138.7 | 65.6 |
| Feb 9 | SE Louisiana | A | L 62–74 | +1.0 | L−11.0 | 137.5 | U136 | 101.5 | 121.1 | 61.1 |
| Feb 7 | McNeese | A | L 64–81 | +17.5 | W+0.5 | 146.0 | U145 | 103.1 | 130.5 | 62.1 |
| Feb 2 | Texas A&M-CC | A | W 71–69 | +5.0 | W+7.0 | 140.5 | U140 | 108.1 | 105.1 | 65.7 |
| Jan 31 | UT Rio Grande | H | L 93–106 | +2.0 | L−11.0 | 141.0 | O199 | 129.3 | 147.3 | 72.0 |
McNeese
Against the spread
Season
13-17-2
Home
6-6
Road
2-10-2
Last 10
4-5-1
avg cover +1.2
Covered 2 straightCovered 3 of 9 as a favorite, 1 pushCovered 3 of 8 with a line of 10+, 1 push
Over / under
Season
15-17
Home
6-6
Road
6-8
Last 10
5-5
avg vs total −0.9
Under in the last gameOver in 5 of 9 as a favoriteOver in 3 of 8 with a line of 10+
Last 10 games, newest first
| Date | Opponent | Site | Result | Total | PPP for | PPP vs | Pace | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 19 | #5Vanderbilt | N | L 68–78 | +12.0 | W+2.0 | 148.0 | U146 | 106.4 | 122.1 | 63.9 |
| Mar 11 | SF Austin | N | W 76–59 | −3.5 | W+13.5 | 134.5 | O135 | 119.0 | 92.4 | 63.9 |
| Mar 10 | UT Rio Grande | N | W 84–80 3OT | −7.0 | L−3.0 | 141.0 | O164 | 98.4 | 93.8 | 85.3 |
| Mar 2 | Nicholls | A | W 75–65 | −10.0 | P0.0 | 145.0 | U140 | 111.5 | 96.6 | 67.3 |
| Feb 28 | LSU N Orleans | A | W 66–63 | −10.0 | L−7.0 | 150.5 | U129 | 102.1 | 97.5 | 64.6 |
| Feb 23 | UT Rio Grande | H | W 75–68 | −12.0 | L−5.0 | 146.0 | U143 | 108.8 | 98.7 | 68.9 |
| Feb 21 | Texas A&M-CC | H | W 70–54 | −14.0 | W+2.0 | 140.5 | U124 | 106.7 | 82.3 | 65.6 |
| Feb 16 | N'Western St | A | W 75–64 | −14.0 | L−3.0 | 137.5 | O139 | 118.2 | 100.9 | 63.5 |
| Feb 14 | East Texas A&M | A | W 97–54 | −13.5 | W+29.5 | 142.5 | O151 | 142.4 | 79.3 | 68.1 |
| Feb 9 | Hou Christian | H | W 73–69 | −20.5 | L−16.5 | 137.0 | O142 | 108.1 | 102.1 | 67.6 |
Records vs the closing line describe the past; ten games is a small sample.
Tale of the tape
national rank toned left for away, right for homeIncarnate WordMcNeese
Efficiency
108.2
113.0
113.5
103.4
67.0
67.4
—
—
Shooting
50.2%
50.7%
47.7%
52.3%
36.1%
31.7%
71.2%
74.4%
34.0%
37.4%
Ball control & glass
17.2%
14.2%
15.7%
24.5%
32.1%
35.1%
32.0%
34.9%
9.3%
6.7%
9.8%
6.7%
Style
39.1%
35.2%
39.1%
46.2%
11.1%
19.1%
44.2%
49.0%
27.1%
40.0%
Roster
3.50
2.91
6'5.3"
6'5.1"
78.0%
86.9%
Offseason
roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model inputIncarnate Word
Returning minutes: 78.0%Returning production: 73.1%
Lost
- Tahj Staveskie 35.3 mpg, 17.3 ppg · transferred to Akron
- Harrison Reede 8.8 mpg, 4.1 ppg · transferred to Buffalo
Added
- Isaiah Kortas no D1 minutes last season
No incoming D1 transfers are listed on ESPN's roster yet — until they are, returning shares read high.
Returns 78% of last season's minutes; lost 1 of its top 5 (1 transferred). Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026).
McNeese
Returning minutes: 86.9%Returning production: 86.3%
Lost
- Garwey Dual 26.6 mpg, 8.4 ppg · transferred to Syracuse
Added
- Kaleb Brewer no D1 minutes last season
- T'Johnn Brown no D1 minutes last season
- Erik Villarreal no D1 minutes last season
- Abdou Akim Mazou Tahirou no D1 minutes last season
No incoming D1 transfers are listed on ESPN's roster yet — until they are, returning shares read high.
Returns 87% of last season's minutes; lost 1 of its top 5 (1 transferred). Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026).
Head-to-head
this season and last| Date | Season | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Sat, Feb 7 | 2025-26 | Incarnate Word 64 – 81 McNeese |
| Mon, Dec 1 | 2025-26 | McNeese 67 – 71 Incarnate Word |
The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — Pinnacle's spread and total (the median across books when Pinnacle has no line). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, built bottom-up from those same numbers: expected possessions times each side's opponent-adjusted points per possession, plus home court.
What these numbers mean: line shopping.