CBB Matchups

Every D1 game with tempo-free ratings, four factors and market lines, one place.

College basketball is being built for the 2026-27 season (tip-off Nov 3). What's here fills in as games are played.
Non-conferencePhysical Education Complex, Baltimore, MD
Mercyhurst
Efficiency #261
2025-26: 17-17 · 12-9 conf
@
Coppin St
Efficiency #364
2025-26: 7-24 · 5-9 conf
Mon, Dec 7 · TBD
72.8
win 67%
Projected
67.6
win 33%
No line posted yet.
Model: MERC −5.2 · total 140.5 · ratings as of Sat, Oct 3
Preseason ratings start from 2025-26's final adjusted ratings, regressed toward the D1 average. The stats below are 2025-26's too; both update once 2026-27 games are played.

How the projection is built

each step, from an average D-I game to this one
Projected total
Average D-I game
148.2
PaceAdjusted tempo: Coppin St 69.1, Mercyhurst 66.5 → 67.2 possessions
−2.3
Coppin St offense vs Mercyhurst defense
−7.2
Mercyhurst offense vs Coppin St defense
+1.8
Projected total
140.5
Axis starts at 130 pointsPoints added or removed at each step
Projected margin
Even game
0.0
Coppin St offense vs Mercyhurst defense
−7.2
Mercyhurst offense vs Coppin St defense
−1.8
Home court+2.9 points per 100 possessions to the home offense, −2.9 to the visitors
+3.9
Mercyhurst by 5.2
5.2
Mercyhurst side ◂▸ Coppin St side

Steps are rounded to one decimal, so they can differ from the total by 0.1: the margin steps add to −5.1 against −5.2. The margin is the same build seen from the home side; positive numbers help Coppin St.

Pace & total

possessions per 40 minutes
Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes

Projected possessions: 67.2, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw 2025-26 season pace, Coppin St is the faster team (69.0, #144 of 365) and Mercyhurst the slower (64.6, #338). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (study weights 0.80 vs 0.66).

Projected possessions
67.2
per team, 40 min
Projected total
140.5
model
Projected team totals
72.8 / 67.6
Mercyhurst / Coppin St
Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent
66.5#321
Mercyhurst
69.1#119
Coppin St

How this game plays

what the study found each side's numbers actually do when these two teams meet
AdvantageCoppin St
Where Coppin St struggles: ball control
Coppin St turns it over on 22.3% of possessions (#363); Mercyhurst forces turnovers on 18.7% of opponent possessions (#64). Expect about 21.1%, 4.4 points above an average D1 matchup — worth roughly -5.4 points per 100 possessions.
ClashCoppin St
Style match: 3-point volume
Coppin St rarely shoots threes (35.2% of its shots); Mercyhurst runs teams off the line (33.6% of shots allowed from three) (D1 average 39.5%). Expect about 32.3% — both habits push the same way.
Watch for noise
3-point caution
A notable season 3-point number here (Coppin St, Coppin St's defense) is close to a coin flip going forward — the study's model of next-game 3P% barely beats guessing the D1 average. Shot volume is what actually carries: expect Mercyhurst at about 35.2% of its shots from three, Coppin St about 32.3%.
AdvantageMercyhurst
Where Mercyhurst scores: shooting
Mercyhurst shoots an effective 49.5% (#269); Coppin St allows 55.4% (#339). Expect about 52.3%, 1.1 points above an average D1 matchup — worth roughly +1.5 points per 100 possessions.
ClashMercyhurst
Style clash: 3-point volume
Mercyhurst rarely shoots threes (31.1% of its shots); Coppin St lets opponents take 43.2% of their shots from three (D1 average 39.5%). Expect about 35.2% — the offense's habit usually carries a bit more weight (0.80 vs 0.64).
ClashMercyhurst
Style clash: paint scoring
Mercyhurst scores 46.5% of its points in the paint; Coppin St protects the paint (38.0% of opponents' points) (D1 average 42.8%). Expect about 42.1% — the offense's habit usually carries a bit more weight (0.25 vs 0.34).
Mercyhurst has the ball
OffenseCoppin St allowsvs D1 avg
49.5% #269
55.4% #339
+1.5 pt/100
14.3% #32
17.5% #118
+1.1 pt/100
26.4% #312
34.8% #333
-0.4 pt/100
25.6% #361
42.9% #339
+0.0 pt/100
74.1% #129
—
+0.1 pt/100
Mercyhurst net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: +2.4 pts/100
Coppin St has the ball
OffenseMercyhurst allowsvs D1 avg
45.9% #350
50.1% #107
-5.3 pt/100
22.3% #363
18.7% #64
-5.4 pt/100
30.4% #183
29.9% #153
-0.1 pt/100
38.5% #90
42.6% #332
+0.8 pt/100
67.2% #342
—
-0.5 pt/100
Coppin St net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: -10.5 pts/100

Shot diet

Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot · 2025-26 numbers
Mercyhurstoffense vsCoppin Stdefense
Share of shots by zone
Mercyhurst shoots
Coppin St allows
D-I average
FG% by zone
ZoneD-I avg
Rim56.5%#25660.1%#23158.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)48.7%#1646.5%#32739.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)42.5%#4335.5%#9138.0%
Three32.1%#27638.3%#36033.7%
Coppin Stoffense vsMercyhurstdefense
Share of shots by zone
Coppin St shoots
Mercyhurst allows
D-I average
FG% by zone
ZoneD-I avg
Rim53.4%#33657.8%#14158.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)28.1%#35742.7%#24539.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)29.7%#35633.3%#3538.0%
Three30.7%#32632.3%#8033.7%
RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three

Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).

Shot volume

Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line · 2025-26 numbers
Mercyhurst
−2.3extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#278 of 365
Off reb %
26.4%
#312
Def reb %
70.1%
#153
Turnover %
14.3%
#32
Forced TO %
18.7%
#64
FT rate
25.6%
#361
FT allowed
42.6%
#332
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding−1.3
Defensive rebounding+0.2
Ball security+1.7
Forcing turnovers+1.3
Foul shots drawn−2.4
Foul shots allowed−1.9
Coppin St
−5.6extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#353 of 365
Off reb %
30.4%
#183
Def reb %
65.2%
#333
Turnover %
22.3%
#363
Forced TO %
17.5%
#118
FT rate
38.5%
#90
FT allowed
42.9%
#339
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding0.0
Defensive rebounding−1.3
Ball security−3.8
Forcing turnovers+0.6
Foul shots drawn+0.9
Foul shots allowed−2.0

Mercyhurst has more extra scoring chances per game: −2.3 (#278 of 365) to Coppin St’s −5.6 (#353).

Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).

Rotation

Mercyhurst2025-26 numbers
#PlayerPosClHtGP-GSMPGPPGRPGAPGTOVeFG%3P%3PA/gFT%UsageStatus
4Bernie Blunt IIIGSr5'11"34-3430.917.63.12.21.349.8%35.5%5.986.5%34.1%
11Jake LemelmanGSo6'2"34-3430.013.92.53.21.750.2%39.6%4.586.4%30.6%
7Deshaun Jackson Jr.GSo6'2"34-122.46.03.03.01.446.8%0.0%0.165.9%20.6%
10Christian GambleGSr6'0"34-3321.13.91.62.10.644.6%28.8%2.173.1%13.9%
5Mykolas IvanauskasFSo6'8"32-3119.67.45.10.41.157.9%22.6%1.058.6%23.6%
1Sean LangGSr6'3"32-013.40.82.41.00.326.6%15.8%0.662.5%6.9%
3Cameron JohnsonFJr6'5"33-412.23.42.40.50.644.9%32.1%0.875.0%20.8%
15Kaden FuhrmannGSr6'5"32-011.63.30.80.80.451.6%31.3%2.587.5%18.6%
34James ThomasFSr6'6"33-09.61.42.00.40.348.8%—0.027.3%12.2%
23Or FaranGFr6'5"9-05.21.20.30.20.033.3%28.6%0.833.3%20.8%
33Vladimir PavlovicGJr6'2"8-04.40.80.00.40.633.3%0.0%0.3—23.4%
2Brady ConnerGFr6'6"6-05.00.30.80.50.511.1%0.0%1.00.0%25.1%
13Chris LemanFFr6'9"6-04.31.20.70.20.343.8%33.3%0.50.0%24.3%
21Emilis ButkusGSr6'6"0-00.00.00.00.00.0——0.0——
Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Tale of the tape

national rank toned left for away, right for home
MercyhurstCoppin St
Efficiency
103.8
97.4
108.8
115.9
66.5
69.1
—
—
Shooting
49.5%
45.9%
50.0%
45.8%
32.1%
30.7%
74.1%
67.2%
25.6%
38.5%
Ball control & glass
14.3%
22.3%
18.7%
17.5%
26.4%
30.4%
29.9%
34.8%
7.7%
13.0%
6.3%
12.0%
Style
31.1%
35.2%
46.5%
43.2%
11.3%
13.9%
54.2%
51.5%
34.3%
49.2%
Roster
3.05
3.20
6'2.6"
6'5.6"
84.5%
—

Offseason

roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model input
Mercyhurst
Returning minutes: 84.5%Returning production: 78.6%
Lost
  • Qadir Martin 31.4 mpg, 11.6 ppg · transferred to Fairfield
Added
  • Emilis Butkus no D1 minutes last season

No incoming D1 transfers are listed on ESPN's roster yet — until they are, returning shares read high.

Returns 85% of last season's minutes; lost 1 of its top 5 (1 transferred). Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026).

Coppin St
Returning minutes: 100.0%Returning production: 100.0%
ESPN hasn't posted Coppin St's roster for this season yet — no movement to show.

Returns 100% of last season's minutes. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026). (ESPN hasn't posted this season's roster yet -- this may still be last season's list.)

Head-to-head

this season and last
No meetings the last two seasons.

The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — Pinnacle's spread and total (the median across books when Pinnacle has no line). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, built bottom-up from those same numbers: expected possessions times each side's opponent-adjusted points per possession, plus home court.

What these numbers mean: line shopping.