CBB Matchups

Every D1 game with tempo-free ratings, four factors and market lines, one place.

College basketball is being built for the 2026-27 season (tip-off Nov 3). What's here fills in as games are played.
Conference gameMontagne Center, Beaumont, TX
East Texas A&M
Efficiency #311
2025-26: 11-21 · 6-16 conf
@
Lamar
Efficiency #236
2025-26: 12-19 · 7-15 conf
Mon, Dec 7 · TBD
67.2
win 27%
Projected
74.3
win 73%
No line posted yet.
Model: LAM −7.1 · total 141.5 · ratings as of Sat, Oct 3
Preseason ratings start from 2025-26's final adjusted ratings, regressed toward the D1 average. The stats below are 2025-26's too; both update once 2026-27 games are played.

How the projection is built

each step, from an average D-I game to this one
Projected total
Average D-I game
148.2
PaceAdjusted tempo: Lamar 67.0, East Texas A&M 69.0 → 67.7 possessions
−1.3
Lamar offense vs East Texas A&M defense
−1.1
East Texas A&M offense vs Lamar defense
−4.3
Projected total
141.5
Axis starts at 135 pointsPoints added or removed at each step
Projected margin
Even game
0.0
Lamar offense vs East Texas A&M defense
−1.1
East Texas A&M offense vs Lamar defense
+4.3
Home court+2.9 points per 100 possessions to the home offense, −2.9 to the visitors
+3.9
Lamar by 7.1
7.1
East Texas A&M side ◂▸ Lamar side

Steps are rounded to one decimal, so they can differ from the total by 0.1. The margin is the same build seen from the home side; positive numbers help Lamar.

Pace & total

possessions per 40 minutes
Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes

Projected possessions: 67.7, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw 2025-26 season pace, East Texas A&M is the faster team (68.5, #171 of 365) and Lamar the slower (65.8, #301). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (study weights 0.80 vs 0.66).

Projected possessions
67.7
per team, 40 min
Projected total
141.5
model
Projected team totals
67.2 / 74.3
East Texas A&M / Lamar
Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent
69.0#123
East Texas A&M
67.0#287
Lamar

How this game plays

what the study found each side's numbers actually do when these two teams meet
ClashEast Texas A&M
Style match: ball movement
East Texas A&M assists on 62.4% of its made baskets; Lamar allows assists on 57.7% of opponents' baskets (D1 average 52.4%). Expect about 62.4% — both habits push the same way.
AdvantageLamar
Where Lamar scores: the offensive glass
Lamar rebounds 35.7% of its own misses (#31); East Texas A&M lets opponents grab 32.8% of their own misses (#288). Expect about 35.3%, 4.8 points above an average D1 matchup — worth roughly +3.0 points per 100 possessions.
DefenseLamar
Lamar's shot-blocking
Lamar ranks #31 nationally in block rate — one of the few defensive numbers that travels. Expect about 12.2% of East Texas A&M's two-point attempts to get blocked against this defense.
AdvantageEast Texas A&M
Where East Texas A&M struggles: the offensive glass
East Texas A&M rebounds 25.7% of its own misses (#328); Lamar lets opponents grab 29.4% of their own misses (#130). Expect about 26.7%, 3.7 points below an average D1 matchup — worth roughly -2.3 points per 100 possessions.
TurnoversEast Texas A&M
East Texas A&M turns it over
Projected turnover rate of 18.5% is worth roughly -2.1 points per 100 possessions against East Texas A&M's offense.
Watch for noise
3-point caution
A notable season 3-point number here (East Texas A&M's defense) is close to a coin flip going forward — the study's model of next-game 3P% barely beats guessing the D1 average. Shot volume is what actually carries: expect East Texas A&M at about 43.6% of its shots from three, Lamar about 34.1%.
East Texas A&M has the ball
OffenseLamar allowsvs D1 avg
49.2% #282
50.9% #153
-1.9 pt/100
19.2% #330
17.3% #130
-2.1 pt/100
25.7% #328
29.4% #130
-2.3 pt/100
32.0% #257
44.4% #347
+0.5 pt/100
67.9% #328
—
-0.4 pt/100
East Texas A&M net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: -6.2 pts/100
Lamar has the ball
OffenseEast Texas A&M allowsvs D1 avg
47.8% #318
52.9% #261
-1.7 pt/100
18.1% #273
17.0% #153
-1.1 pt/100
35.7% #31
32.8% #288
+3.0 pt/100
27.9% #344
34.5% #165
-0.5 pt/100
70.7% #249
—
-0.2 pt/100
Lamar net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: -0.5 pts/100

Shot diet

Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot · 2025-26 numbers
East Texas A&Moffense vsLamardefense
Share of shots by zone
East Texas A&M shoots
Lamar allows
D-I average
FG% by zone
ZoneD-I avg
Rim57.9%#20059.0%#18958.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)39.3%#19032.9%#2739.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)32.8%#33233.6%#4038.0%
Three31.3%#31335.3%#26633.7%
Lamaroffense vsEast Texas A&Mdefense
Share of shots by zone
Lamar shoots
East Texas A&M allows
D-I average
FG% by zone
ZoneD-I avg
Rim53.3%#33755.1%#6258.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)44.1%#7740.4%#19739.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)38.0%#18835.4%#8538.0%
Three32.9%#23837.3%#34733.7%
RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three

Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).

Shot volume

Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line · 2025-26 numbers
East Texas A&M
−4.2extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#332 of 365
Off reb %
25.7%
#328
Def reb %
67.2%
#288
Turnover %
19.2%
#330
Forced TO %
17.0%
#153
FT rate
32.0%
#257
FT allowed
34.5%
#165
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding−1.5
Defensive rebounding−0.7
Ball security−1.7
Forcing turnovers+0.2
Foul shots drawn−0.8
Foul shots allowed+0.2
Lamar
−2.5extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#284 of 365
Off reb %
35.7%
#31
Def reb %
70.6%
#130
Turnover %
18.1%
#273
Forced TO %
17.3%
#130
FT rate
27.9%
#344
FT allowed
44.4%
#347
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding+1.7
Defensive rebounding+0.4
Ball security−0.9
Forcing turnovers+0.4
Foul shots drawn−1.8
Foul shots allowed−2.4

Lamar has more extra scoring chances per game: −2.5 (#284 of 365) to East Texas A&M’s −4.2 (#332).

Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).

Rotation

East Texas A&M2025-26 numbers
#PlayerPosClHtGP-GSMPGPPGRPGAPGTOVeFG%3P%3PA/gFT%UsageStatus
25Gianni HuntGSr6'4"32-3230.910.84.24.92.446.5%31.3%4.076.4%23.9%
0Ronnie HarrisonFJr6'8"30-2829.514.76.11.82.352.3%29.6%3.665.5%31.1%
13Noah PagottoFJr6'8"32-2226.110.45.71.01.059.3%37.3%1.676.8%21.0%
8Damian GarciaGSr6'5"32-2426.010.53.32.21.649.8%33.3%5.057.1%26.7%
10Josh TaylorFSr6'8"32-1216.85.13.60.81.053.4%31.0%0.955.3%19.5%
5Tay MosherFSr6'7"27-1216.64.72.11.10.450.4%31.9%3.560.0%18.1%
2Evan PhelpsGJr6'0"30-814.61.50.71.21.029.0%20.5%1.326.7%13.9%
6London FieldsGJr6'5"24-1015.33.51.61.00.643.3%25.4%2.570.6%16.0%
7Michael FolarinFSr6'10"20-413.45.23.90.61.152.2%0.0%0.163.5%23.2%
30Alex McCrayGJr6'1"20-210.61.91.31.41.041.2%22.2%0.981.8%15.3%
20Parker WhisenhuntGSo6'3"4-03.80.80.50.00.533.3%—0.050.0%20.9%
3Mykol Sanchez-VegaGSr6'5"2-06.01.50.50.50.525.0%20.0%2.5—28.3%
4Chris AdlamGSo6'3"0-00.00.00.00.00.0——0.0——
11Kamren RobinsonGFr6'0"0-00.00.00.00.00.0——0.0——
12Kollin TolbertGJr6'2"0-00.00.00.00.00.0——0.0——
Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Tale of the tape

national rank toned left for away, right for home
East Texas A&MLamar
Efficiency
102.4
105.0
110.3
108.3
69.0
67.0
—
—
Shooting
49.2%
47.8%
51.2%
47.0%
31.3%
32.9%
67.9%
70.7%
32.0%
27.9%
Ball control & glass
19.2%
18.1%
17.0%
17.3%
25.7%
35.7%
32.8%
29.4%
10.7%
11.4%
10.7%
8.5%
Style
46.2%
33.9%
41.9%
40.5%
13.4%
14.2%
62.4%
55.4%
32.7%
34.7%
Roster
3.53
2.88
6'5.8"
6'4.4"
91.3%
85.8%

Offseason

roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model input
East Texas A&M
Returning minutes: 91.3%Returning production: 91.8%
Lost
  • Vinny Sigona 17.5 mpg, 7.1 ppg · transferred to Canisius
Added
  • Kollin Tolbert no D1 minutes last season
  • Kamren Robinson no D1 minutes last season
  • Chris Adlam no D1 minutes last season

No incoming D1 transfers are listed on ESPN's roster yet — until they are, returning shares read high.

Returns 91% of last season's minutes; lost 1 of its top 5 (1 transferred). Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026).

Lamar
Returning minutes: 85.8%Returning production: 84.0%
Lost
  • Andrew Holifield 28.6 mpg, 11.7 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
Added
  • Christian Thomas no D1 minutes last season
  • Izuchukwu Emelife no D1 minutes last season
  • Quinton Sanders no D1 minutes last season

No incoming D1 transfers are listed on ESPN's roster yet — until they are, returning shares read high.

Returns 86% of last season's minutes; lost 1 of its top 5. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026).

Head-to-head

this season and last
DateSeasonResult
Tue, Jan 272025-26East Texas A&M 61 – 82 Lamar
Mon, Jan 262025-26East Texas A&M 0 – 0 Lamar
Wed, Dec 312025-26Lamar 69 – 62 East Texas A&M

The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — Pinnacle's spread and total (the median across books when Pinnacle has no line). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, built bottom-up from those same numbers: expected possessions times each side's opponent-adjusted points per possession, plus home court.

What these numbers mean: line shopping.