CBB Matchups

Every D1 game with tempo-free ratings, four factors and market lines, one place.

College basketball is being built for the 2026-27 season (tip-off Nov 3). What's here fills in as games are played.

Non-conferenceSiegel Center, Richmond, VA

NC Central

Efficiency #346

2025-26: 14-18 · 10-7 conf

VCU

Efficiency #39

2025-26: 28-8 · 18-3 conf

Mon, Dec 7 · 7:00 PM ET

65.4

win 4%

Projected

85.4

win 96%

No line posted yet.

Model: VCU −20.0 · total 150.8 · ratings as of Sat, Oct 3

Preseason ratings start from 2025-26's final adjusted ratings, regressed toward the D1 average. The stats below are 2025-26's too; both update once 2026-27 games are played.

How the projection is built

each step, from an average D-I game to this one

Projected total

Average D-I game

148.2

PaceAdjusted tempo: VCU 69.1, NC Central 67.3 → 68.1 possessions

−0.4

VCU offense vs NC Central defense

+9.5

NC Central offense vs VCU defense

−6.6

Projected total

150.8

Axis starts at 140 pointsPoints added or removed at each step

Projected margin

Even game

0.0

VCU offense vs NC Central defense

+9.5

NC Central offense vs VCU defense

+6.6

Home court+2.9 points per 100 possessions to the home offense, −2.9 to the visitors

+3.9

VCU by 20.0

20.0

NC Central side ◂▸ VCU side

Steps are rounded to one decimal, so they can differ from the total by 0.1: the total steps add to 150.7 against a projected 150.8. The margin is the same build seen from the home side; positive numbers help VCU.

Pace & total

possessions per 40 minutes

Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes

Projected possessions: 68.1, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw 2025-26 season pace, VCU is the faster team (69.2, #132 of 365) and NC Central the slower (66.6, #261). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (study weights 0.80 vs 0.66).

Projected possessions

68.1

per team, 40 min

Projected total

150.8

model

Projected team totals

65.4 / 85.4

NC Central / VCU

Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent

67.3#266

NC Central

69.1#109

VCU

How this game plays

what the study found each side's numbers actually do when these two teams meet

AdvantageNC Central

Where NC Central struggles: shooting

NC Central shoots an effective 47.5% (#328); VCU allows 49.0% (#69). Expect about 47.9%, 3.4 points below an average D1 matchup — worth roughly -4.8 points per 100 possessions.

AdvantageVCU

Where VCU scores: shooting

VCU shoots an effective 53.6% (#78); NC Central allows 54.5% (#317). Expect about 54.3%, 3.0 points above an average D1 matchup — worth roughly +4.3 points per 100 possessions.

GlassVCU

VCU owns the glass

Projected offensive rebound rate of 35.6% is worth roughly +3.2 points per 100 possessions for VCU's offense.

ClashNC Central

Style match: 3-point volume

NC Central rarely shoots threes (33.9% of its shots); VCU runs teams off the line (35.1% of shots allowed from three) (D1 average 39.5%). Expect about 32.2% — both habits push the same way.

Watch for noise

3-point caution

A notable season 3-point number here (VCU, NC Central's defense) is close to a coin flip going forward — the study's model of next-game 3P% barely beats guessing the D1 average. Shot volume is what actually carries: expect NC Central at about 32.2% of its shots from three, VCU about 43.7%.

DefenseNC Central

NC Central's ball-hawking

NC Central ranks #35 nationally in steal rate — one of the few defensive numbers that travels. Expect about 10.6% of VCU's possessions to end in a steal against this defense.

NC Central has the ball

OffenseVCU allowsvs D1 avg

47.5% #328

49.0% #69

-4.8 pt/100

18.1% #278

17.0% #158

-1.1 pt/100

30.0% #201

30.0% #162

-0.3 pt/100

39.3% #72

32.8% #126

+0.1 pt/100

73.8% #139

—

+0.1 pt/100

NC Central net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: -6.0 pts/100

VCU has the ball

OffenseNC Central allowsvs D1 avg

53.6% #78

54.5% #317

+4.3 pt/100

15.1% #75

19.9% #26

-1.3 pt/100

31.6% #139

39.4% #364

+3.2 pt/100

42.0% #30

36.9% #233

+0.6 pt/100

73.6% #150

—

+0.1 pt/100

VCU net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: +6.9 pts/100

Shot diet

Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot · 2025-26 numbers

NC Centraloffense vsVCUdefense

Share of shots by zone

NC Central shoots

44.2

3.4

18.2

34.3

VCU allows

44.1

6.5

14.1

35.2

D-I average

38.5

6.4

15.8

39.3

FG% by zone

Zone			D-I avg
Rim	54.3%#316	52.9%#23	58.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)	37.8%#225	44.4%#279	39.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)	33.5%#325	36.4%#119	38.0%
Three	32.6%#247	33.0%#125	33.7%

VCUoffense vsNC Centraldefense

Share of shots by zone

VCU shoots

39.0

7.4

9.7

43.9

NC Central allows

40.6

3.0

16.6

39.8

D-I average

38.5

6.4

15.8

39.3

FG% by zone

Zone			D-I avg
Rim	56.1%#271	59.8%#216	58.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)	38.5%#208	38.1%#139	39.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)	45.7%#9	38.4%#171	38.0%
Three	36.3%#46	36.4%#321	33.7%

RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three

Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).

Shot volume

Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line · 2025-26 numbers

NC Central

−1.0extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#233 of 365

Off reb %

30.0%

#201

Def reb %

60.6%

#364

Turnover %

18.1%

#278

Forced TO %

19.9%

#26

FT rate

39.3%

#72

FT allowed

36.9%

#233

Where the chances come from (per game)

Offensive rebounding−0.1

Defensive rebounding−2.8

Ball security−0.9

Forcing turnovers+2.2

Foul shots drawn+1.1

Foul shots allowed−0.4

VCU

+4.3extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#33 of 365

Off reb %

31.6%

#139

Def reb %

70.0%

#162

Turnover %

15.1%

#75

Forced TO %

17.0%

#158

FT rate

42.0%

#30

FT allowed

32.8%

#126

Where the chances come from (per game)

Offensive rebounding+0.4

Defensive rebounding+0.2

Ball security+1.1

Forcing turnovers+0.2

Foul shots drawn+1.8

Foul shots allowed+0.6

VCU has more extra scoring chances per game: +4.3 (#33 of 365) to NC Central’s −1.0 (#233).

Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).

Rotation

NC Central2025-26 numbers

ESPN hasn't posted NC Central's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
11	Gage Lattimore	G	So	6'2"	31-31	36.8	16.6	4.3	2.4	1.9	49.6%	39.2%	6.7	86.7%	26.7%
2	Dionte Johnson	G	Sr	6'0"	32-32	30.8	8.6	4.0	5.1	2.4	48.2%	32.9%	2.7	76.8%	20.3%
21	Kelechi Okworogwo	F	Sr	6'6"	32-13	25.6	8.2	5.1	0.5	0.8	54.0%	20.0%	0.6	69.1%	18.7%
5	Tekao Carpenter	G	Sr	6'3"	30-22	25.9	6.8	2.0	1.4	1.3	46.9%	31.6%	3.8	75.5%	18.4%
1	Kyric Davis	G	Sr	6'5"	31-17	22.5	8.1	3.5	0.9	1.6	50.8%	11.8%	0.5	72.5%	23.9%
8	Jae Slack	F	Sr	6'6"	26-10	23.9	10.3	3.3	0.8	1.2	48.9%	35.7%	2.7	75.0%	25.8%
7	Khouri Carvey	F	Sr	6'9"	22-21	26.2	13.6	6.3	1.5	1.8	58.1%	25.0%	0.5	55.3%	30.0%
10	Ryan Archey	G	So	6'0"	25-0	8.0	3.2	0.8	0.8	0.9	42.5%	28.6%	0.8	61.9%	32.3%
22	Ramondo Battle II	F	Sr	6'8"	19-5	9.3	2.5	1.7	0.5	0.3	32.8%	18.2%	1.7	52.9%	23.4%
13	Jonathan Dunn	F	Jr	6'7"	11-9	13.8	4.3	1.7	0.5	0.6	54.5%	0.0%	0.2	55.0%	18.1%
12	Justin Edwards	G	Sr	5'9"	18-0	6.1	0.7	0.8	0.9	0.5	28.1%	20.0%	0.3	80.0%	14.0%
3	Khalil Arnold	G	Jr	6'4"	10-0	6.4	1.7	0.8	0.1	0.1	47.2%	38.5%	1.3	—	16.5%
9	Gbenga Olubi	F	Sr	6'7"	15-0	3.4	0.5	0.5	0.1	0.1	31.8%	33.3%	0.2	—	13.2%
4	Camren Daniels	G	Fr	6'5"	9-0	2.8	1.0	0.6	0.2	0.1	31.8%	25.0%	0.4	100.0%	25.4%
0	Caleb Ellison	G	So	6'0"	2-0	3.0	1.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	100.0%	—	0.0	—	7.5%

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

VCU2025-26 numbers

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
17	Lazar Djokovic	F	Jr	6'11"	35-34	27.6	13.2	5.2	1.1	1.5	54.2%	34.3%	1.9	78.3%	25.5%
6	Terrence Hill Jr.	G	So	6'3"	36-2	25.1	15.0	2.7	2.8	1.1	57.6%	37.0%	6.1	84.4%	30.5%
0	Brandon Jennings	G	So	6'4"	36-35	24.9	8.5	3.6	2.1	1.3	49.3%	43.1%	1.6	85.5%	20.5%
1	Nyk Lewis	G	Fr	6'1"	35-35	23.7	8.7	4.5	1.6	1.0	51.4%	36.2%	3.6	74.8%	21.1%
8	Michael Belle	F	Jr	6'8"	36-0	22.4	7.3	5.0	1.1	0.9	59.3%	50.0%	1.1	50.0%	18.6%
2	Jadrian Tracey	G	Sr	6'6"	36-36	21.9	9.6	2.8	1.8	1.8	51.9%	36.0%	4.8	68.7%	27.7%
15	Tyrell Ward	G	Jr	6'6"	31-0	13.7	5.7	2.2	0.5	0.9	52.2%	30.6%	2.0	63.8%	25.9%
4	Ahmad Nowell	G	So	6'0"	28-0	10.5	4.5	1.2	0.6	0.5	58.8%	41.4%	2.1	75.0%	22.3%
14	Jordan Tillery	G	Fr	6'5"	11-0	7.3	4.7	1.5	0.5	0.3	65.6%	57.1%	0.6	62.5%	30.0%
21	Christian Fermin	F	Sr	6'10"	4-0	12.8	0.8	2.5	0.8	0.0	0.0%	—	0.0	30.0%	5.9%
10	Jordann Dumont	F	So	6'8"	9-0	2.4	0.9	0.1	0.0	0.0	33.3%	0.0%	0.7	100.0%	24.6%
7	Obinnaya Okafor	F	Jr	6'9"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

NC Central2025-26 numbers

ESPN hasn't posted NC Central's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
11	Gage Lattimore	G	So	6'2"	31-31	36.8	16.6	4.3	2.4	1.9	49.6%	39.2%	6.7	86.7%	26.7%
2	Dionte Johnson	G	Sr	6'0"	32-32	30.8	8.6	4.0	5.1	2.4	48.2%	32.9%	2.7	76.8%	20.3%
21	Kelechi Okworogwo	F	Sr	6'6"	32-13	25.6	8.2	5.1	0.5	0.8	54.0%	20.0%	0.6	69.1%	18.7%
5	Tekao Carpenter	G	Sr	6'3"	30-22	25.9	6.8	2.0	1.4	1.3	46.9%	31.6%	3.8	75.5%	18.4%
1	Kyric Davis	G	Sr	6'5"	31-17	22.5	8.1	3.5	0.9	1.6	50.8%	11.8%	0.5	72.5%	23.9%
8	Jae Slack	F	Sr	6'6"	26-10	23.9	10.3	3.3	0.8	1.2	48.9%	35.7%	2.7	75.0%	25.8%
7	Khouri Carvey	F	Sr	6'9"	22-21	26.2	13.6	6.3	1.5	1.8	58.1%	25.0%	0.5	55.3%	30.0%
10	Ryan Archey	G	So	6'0"	25-0	8.0	3.2	0.8	0.8	0.9	42.5%	28.6%	0.8	61.9%	32.3%
22	Ramondo Battle II	F	Sr	6'8"	19-5	9.3	2.5	1.7	0.5	0.3	32.8%	18.2%	1.7	52.9%	23.4%
13	Jonathan Dunn	F	Jr	6'7"	11-9	13.8	4.3	1.7	0.5	0.6	54.5%	0.0%	0.2	55.0%	18.1%
12	Justin Edwards	G	Sr	5'9"	18-0	6.1	0.7	0.8	0.9	0.5	28.1%	20.0%	0.3	80.0%	14.0%
3	Khalil Arnold	G	Jr	6'4"	10-0	6.4	1.7	0.8	0.1	0.1	47.2%	38.5%	1.3	—	16.5%
9	Gbenga Olubi	F	Sr	6'7"	15-0	3.4	0.5	0.5	0.1	0.1	31.8%	33.3%	0.2	—	13.2%
4	Camren Daniels	G	Fr	6'5"	9-0	2.8	1.0	0.6	0.2	0.1	31.8%	25.0%	0.4	100.0%	25.4%
0	Caleb Ellison	G	So	6'0"	2-0	3.0	1.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	100.0%	—	0.0	—	7.5%

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Trends

Last 10 games of 2025-26

NC Central

Against the spread

Season

15-13

Home

3-6

Road

9-7

Last 10

5-5

avg cover −4.2

Covered 3 straightCovered 2 of 6 as a favoriteCovered 3 of 4 as an underdog

Over / under

Season

13-14-1

Home

4-5

Road

8-7-1

Last 10

6-4

avg vs total +3.5

Under 2 straightOver in 3 of 6 as a favoriteOver in 3 of 4 as an underdog

Last 10 games, newest first

Date	Opponent	Site	Result			Total		PPP for	PPP vs	Pace
Mar 14	HowardAdjEM #160	N	L 63–70	+11.5	W+4.5	143.5	U133	101.2	112.4	62.3
Mar 13	Delaware StAdjEM #358	N	W 59–53	−4.0	W+2.0	131.0	U112	104.5	93.9	56.4
Mar 12	MD EasternAdjEM #345	N	W 83–76 OT	+1.0	W+8.0	132.0	O159	119.6	109.5	69.4
Mar 5	SC StateAdjEM #357	H	L 64–80	−7.5	L−23.5	141.5	O144	91.7	114.6	69.8
Mar 2	MD EasternAdjEM #345	A	W 77–73	+2.5	W+6.5	133.5	O150	112.8	106.9	68.3
Feb 28	Delaware StAdjEM #358	A	W 74–60	−2.5	W+11.5	135.5	U134	120.3	97.5	61.5
Feb 21	HowardAdjEM #160	A	L 67–100	+12.5	L−20.5	143.0	O167	94.0	140.3	71.3
Feb 18	SC StateAdjEM #357	A	L 72–85	−3.0	L−16.0	137.5	O157	107.9	127.4	66.7
Feb 16	Morgan StAdjEM #349	H	W 80–76	−5.5	L−1.5	148.0	O156	109.7	104.3	72.9
Feb 14	Coppin StAdjEM #364	H	L 56–58	−11.0	L−13.0	145.5	U114	89.6	92.8	62.5

VCU

Against the spread

Season

17-17-2

Home

7-10

Road

5-4-1

Last 10

6-4

avg cover +1.9

Missed the spread in the last gameCovered 4 of 6 as a favoriteCovered 2 of 4 as an underdog

Over / under

Season

16-20

Home

10-7

Road

3-7

Last 10

3-7

avg vs total −6.5

Under in the last gameOver in 2 of 6 as a favoriteOver in 1 of 4 as an underdog

Last 10 games, newest first

Date	Opponent	Site	Result			Total		PPP for	PPP vs	Pace
Mar 21	#3IllinoisAdjEM #4	N	L 55–76	+12.0	L−9.0	150.5	U131	83.4	115.2	66.0
Mar 19	#6North CarolinaAdjEM #29	N	W 82–78 OT	+2.5	W+6.5	151.0	O160	107.1	101.9	76.5
Mar 15	DaytonAdjEM #62	N	W 70–62	−2.5	W+5.5	138.5	U132	108.4	96.0	64.6
Mar 14	Saint Joseph'sAdjEM #118	N	W 77–64	−6.5	W+6.5	146.0	U141	118.4	98.4	65.0
Mar 13	DuquesneAdjEM #131	N	W 71–66	−7.0	L−2.0	153.0	U137	109.6	101.9	64.8
Mar 6	DaytonAdjEM #62	A	W 68–62	+1.5	W+7.5	147.0	U130	112.1	102.2	60.6
Mar 3	George MasonAdjEM #83	H	W 70–65	−10.0	L−5.0	147.5	U135	115.1	106.9	60.8
Feb 28	FordhamAdjEM #170	H	W 82–63	−12.5	W+6.5	143.5	O145	120.2	92.4	68.2
Feb 20	#18Saint LouisAdjEM #20	A	L 75–88	+7.5	L−5.5	164.5	U163	97.3	114.1	77.1
Feb 17	G WashingtonAdjEM #68	H	W 89–75	−6.0	W+8.0	161.5	O164	130.2	109.7	68.3

Records vs the closing line describe the past; ten games is a small sample.

Tale of the tape

national rank toned left for away, right for home

NC CentralVCU

Efficiency

103.2

115.3

115.7

104.1

67.3

69.1

—

Shooting

47.5%

53.6%

46.7%

53.0%

32.6%

36.3%

73.8%

73.6%

39.3%

42.0%

Ball control & glass

18.1%

15.1%

19.9%

17.0%

30.0%

31.6%

39.4%

30.0%

9.4%

9.0%

12.4%

9.0%

Style

33.9%

43.8%

41.7%

40.2%

17.3%

14.3%

52.7%

51.9%

26.5%

37.9%

Roster

3.53

2.49

6'3.9"

6'5.4"

—

83.8%

Offseason

roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model input

NC Central

Returning minutes: 99.6%Returning production: 100.0%

ESPN hasn't posted NC Central's roster for this season yet — no movement to show.

Returns 100% of last season's minutes. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026). (ESPN hasn't posted this season's roster yet -- this may still be last season's list.)

VCU

Returning minutes: 83.8%Returning production: 87.1%

Lost

Barry Evans 26.6 mpg, 7.2 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
Keyshawn Mitchell 5.9 mpg, 1.8 ppg · transferred to Iona

Added

Obinnaya Okafor no D1 minutes last season

No incoming D1 transfers are listed on ESPN's roster yet — until they are, returning shares read high.

Returns 84% of last season's minutes; lost 1 of its top 5. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026).

Head-to-head

this season and last

No meetings the last two seasons.

The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — Pinnacle's spread and total (the median across books when Pinnacle has no line). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, built bottom-up from those same numbers: expected possessions times each side's opponent-adjusted points per possession, plus home court.

What these numbers mean: line shopping.