CBB Matchups
Every D1 game with tempo-free ratings, four factors and market lines, one place.
College basketball is being built for the 2026-27 season (tip-off Nov 3). What's here fills in as games are played.
Non-conferenceNeutral siteAcrisure Arena, Palm Springs, CAAcrisure Series
South Carolina
Efficiency #123
2025-26: 13-19 · 4-15 conf
vs
Arizona St
Efficiency #93
2025-26: 17-16 · 8-12 conf
Thu, Nov 26 · 2:00 PM ET
74.2
win 45%
Projected
75.5
win 55%
No line posted yet.
Model: ASU −1.4 · total 149.7 · ratings as of Sat, Oct 3
Preseason ratings start from 2025-26's final adjusted ratings, regressed toward the D1 average. The stats below are 2025-26's too; both update once 2026-27 games are played.
How the projection is built
each step, from an average D-I game to this oneProjected total
Average D-I game
148.2
PaceAdjusted tempo: Arizona St 69.5, South Carolina 67.6 → 68.9 possessions
+1.2
Arizona St offense vs South Carolina defense
+0.8
South Carolina offense vs Arizona St defense
−0.5
Projected total
149.7
Axis starts at 147 pointsPoints added or removed at each step
Projected margin
Even game
0.0
Arizona St offense vs South Carolina defense
+0.8
South Carolina offense vs Arizona St defense
+0.5
Arizona St by 1.4
1.4
South Carolina side ◂▸ Arizona St side
Steps are rounded to one decimal, so they can differ from the total by 0.1: the margin steps add to +1.3 against +1.4. The margin is the same build seen from the home side; positive numbers help Arizona St.
Pace & total
possessions per 40 minutesTempo, possessions per 40 minutes
Projected possessions: 68.9, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw 2025-26 season pace, Arizona St is the faster team (70.6, #71 of 365) and South Carolina the slower (68.0, #202). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (study weights 0.80 vs 0.66).
Projected possessions
68.9
per team, 40 min
Projected total
149.7
model
Projected team totals
74.2 / 75.5
South Carolina / Arizona St
Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent
67.6#241
South Carolina
69.5#79
Arizona St
How this game plays
what the study found each side's numbers actually do when these two teams meetDefenseArizona St
Arizona St's shot-blocking
Arizona St ranks #30 nationally in block rate — one of the few defensive numbers that travels. Expect about 12.4% of South Carolina's two-point attempts to get blocked against this defense.
Watch for noise
3-point caution
A notable season 3-point number here (South Carolina) is close to a coin flip going forward — the study's model of next-game 3P% barely beats guessing the D1 average. Shot volume is what actually carries: expect South Carolina at about 44.0% of its shots from three, Arizona St about 36.3%.
South Carolina has the ball
OffenseArizona St allowsvs D1 avg
50.3% #226
52.4% #235
-0.0 pt/100
14.5% #42
18.5% #77
+0.3 pt/100
27.2% #289
34.9% #337
-0.0 pt/100
36.7% #137
34.3% #160
+0.0 pt/100
78.1% #14
—
+0.5 pt/100
South Carolina net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: +0.8 pts/100
Arizona St has the ball
OffenseSouth Carolina allowsvs D1 avg
51.1% #190
51.6% #188
+0.1 pt/100
17.1% #213
14.6% #314
+1.5 pt/100
29.8% #206
32.1% #263
+0.3 pt/100
39.5% #66
34.0% #151
+0.2 pt/100
75.3% #73
—
+0.3 pt/100
Arizona St net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: +2.2 pts/100
Shot diet
Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot · 2025-26 numbersSouth Carolinaoffense vsArizona Stdefense
Share of shots by zone
South Carolina shoots
33.0
7.1
15.4
44.5
Arizona St allows
37.3
7.7
15.6
39.4
D-I average
38.5
6.4
15.8
39.3
FG% by zone
| Zone | D-I avg | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Rim | 59.7%#130 | 59.3%#204 | 58.6% |
| Short 2 (≤9 ft) | 38.8%#200 | 43.1%#253 | 39.5% |
| Mid 2 (10 ft+) | 43.4%#32 | 39.2%#209 | 38.0% |
| Three | 31.1%#317 | 35.0%#249 | 33.7% |
Arizona Stoffense vsSouth Carolinadefense
Share of shots by zone
Arizona St shoots
35.6
7.8
18.0
38.6
South Carolina allows
38.5
7.1
18.2
36.2
D-I average
38.5
6.4
15.8
39.3
FG% by zone
| Zone | D-I avg | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Rim | 59.9%#119 | 63.9%#340 | 58.6% |
| Short 2 (≤9 ft) | 42.0%#122 | 35.3%#65 | 39.5% |
| Mid 2 (10 ft+) | 38.4%#177 | 40.5%#258 | 38.0% |
| Three | 33.4%#202 | 31.8%#56 | 33.7% |
RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three
Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).
Shot volume
Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line · 2025-26 numbersSouth Carolina
−0.6extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#203 of 365
Off reb %
27.2%
#289
Def reb %
67.9%
#263
Turnover %
14.5%
#42
Forced TO %
14.6%
#314
FT rate
36.7%
#137
FT allowed
34.0%
#151
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding−1.0
Defensive rebounding−0.5
Ball security+1.6
Forcing turnovers−1.4
Foul shots drawn+0.4
Foul shots allowed+0.3
Arizona St
+0.8extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#149 of 365
Off reb %
29.8%
#206
Def reb %
65.1%
#337
Turnover %
17.1%
#213
Forced TO %
18.5%
#77
FT rate
39.5%
#66
FT allowed
34.3%
#160
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding−0.2
Defensive rebounding−1.4
Ball security−0.2
Forcing turnovers+1.2
Foul shots drawn+1.1
Foul shots allowed+0.2
Arizona St has more extra scoring chances per game: +0.8 (#149 of 365) to South Carolina’s −0.6 (#203).
Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).
Rotation
South Carolina2025-26 numbers
| # | Player | Pos | Cl | Ht | GP-GS | MPG | PPG | RPG | APG | TOV | eFG% | 3P% | 3PA/g | FT% | Usage | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Eli Ellis | G | Fr | 6'0" | 28-0 | 26.9 | 8.6 | 2.8 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 44.2% | 28.0% | 2.9 | 87.9% | 20.8% | |
| 10 | Myles Stute | G | Sr | 6'7" | 27-24 | 23.3 | 5.6 | 3.7 | 0.9 | 1.0 | 47.6% | 30.9% | 4.1 | 64.0% | 16.8% | |
| 31 | Elijah Strong | F | Jr | 6'8" | 32-18 | 17.1 | 10.0 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 49.3% | 27.8% | 3.0 | 75.9% | 36.1% | |
| 13 | Grant Polk | G | Fr | 6'6" | 30-0 | 12.9 | 3.8 | 1.1 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 51.5% | 32.9% | 2.6 | 90.9% | 17.1% | |
| 6 | EJ Walker | F | Fr | 6'7" | 22-6 | 15.9 | 2.9 | 2.7 | 0.4 | 0.8 | 49.1% | 24.1% | 1.3 | 47.1% | 13.9% | |
| 24 | Nordin Kapic | F | Sr | 6'8" | 22-4 | 10.8 | 3.9 | 2.0 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 52.1% | 34.0% | 2.1 | 69.2% | 21.7% | |
| 20 | Hayden Assemian | F | Fr | 6'6" | 24-4 | 9.8 | 2.4 | 2.5 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 69.4% | — | 0.0 | 57.1% | 13.7% | |
| 0 | Jordan Butler | F | Jr | 7'0" | 25-4 | 8.9 | 2.8 | 1.8 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 53.4% | 25.0% | 0.8 | 77.4% | 17.1% | |
| 14 | Eli Sparkman | G | Sr | 6'0" | 12-0 | 3.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.0 | 42.9% | 28.6% | 0.6 | — | 9.7% | |
| 7 | Abu Yarmah | G | Fr | 6'6" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 23 | Cam Scott | G | So | 6'6" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — |
Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.
Arizona St2025-26 numbers
ESPN hasn't posted Arizona St's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.
| # | Player | Pos | Cl | Ht | GP-GS | MPG | PPG | RPG | APG | TOV | eFG% | 3P% | 3PA/g | FT% | Usage | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Maurice Odum | G | Sr | 6'2" | 33-33 | 33.8 | 16.4 | 3.1 | 5.7 | 3.2 | 51.3% | 37.7% | 7.2 | 82.9% | 29.7% | |
| 35 | Massamba Diop | C | Fr | 7'1" | 33-33 | 29.7 | 13.6 | 5.8 | 1.1 | 1.9 | 58.2% | 30.8% | 0.8 | 71.5% | 24.8% | |
| 2 | Anthony Johnson | G | Sr | 6'3" | 33-5 | 24.8 | 13.2 | 3.2 | 1.7 | 2.2 | 49.7% | 32.9% | 2.4 | 76.1% | 31.7% | |
| 15 | Noah Meeusen | G | So | 6'5" | 30-11 | 27.3 | 5.9 | 3.2 | 2.6 | 1.3 | 49.0% | 31.0% | 3.3 | 82.9% | 14.2% | |
| 1 | Santiago Trouet | F | So | 6'11" | 31-30 | 25.7 | 8.1 | 6.1 | 0.9 | 1.0 | 46.1% | 20.8% | 0.8 | 78.3% | 19.5% | |
| 14 | Andrija Grbovic | F | Jr | 6'11" | 33-27 | 19.9 | 6.8 | 2.9 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 51.9% | 35.0% | 3.7 | 78.9% | 19.4% | |
| 4 | Bryce Ford | G | Jr | 6'4" | 27-20 | 22.4 | 6.9 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 47.3% | 31.4% | 3.8 | 82.9% | 18.6% | |
| 23 | Allen Mukeba | F | Sr | 6'8" | 33-6 | 16.4 | 5.5 | 3.5 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 56.1% | 25.0% | 0.1 | 53.2% | 19.9% | |
| 8 | Marcus Adams Jr. | F | Jr | 6'8" | 14-0 | 11.7 | 3.6 | 2.4 | 0.2 | 0.5 | 43.9% | 29.6% | 1.9 | 70.0% | 19.7% | |
| 12 | Trevor Best | G | So | 6'3" | 17-0 | 6.1 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 0.4 | 36.4% | 16.7% | 0.7 | 63.6% | 18.1% | |
| 11 | Kash Polk | F | Fr | 6'10" | 1-0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | 0.0% | |
| 3 | Adante' Holiman | G | Sr | 5'11" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 24 | Dame Salane | C | Fr | 7'1" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 70 | Jovan Icitovic | F | Fr | 6'9" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 22 | Quentin McCoy | G | So | 6'1" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 7 | Vijay Wallace | G | Jr | 6'5" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — |
Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.
South Carolina2025-26 numbers
| # | Player | Pos | Cl | Ht | GP-GS | MPG | PPG | RPG | APG | TOV | eFG% | 3P% | 3PA/g | FT% | Usage | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Eli Ellis | G | Fr | 6'0" | 28-0 | 26.9 | 8.6 | 2.8 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 44.2% | 28.0% | 2.9 | 87.9% | 20.8% | |
| 10 | Myles Stute | G | Sr | 6'7" | 27-24 | 23.3 | 5.6 | 3.7 | 0.9 | 1.0 | 47.6% | 30.9% | 4.1 | 64.0% | 16.8% | |
| 31 | Elijah Strong | F | Jr | 6'8" | 32-18 | 17.1 | 10.0 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 49.3% | 27.8% | 3.0 | 75.9% | 36.1% | |
| 13 | Grant Polk | G | Fr | 6'6" | 30-0 | 12.9 | 3.8 | 1.1 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 51.5% | 32.9% | 2.6 | 90.9% | 17.1% | |
| 6 | EJ Walker | F | Fr | 6'7" | 22-6 | 15.9 | 2.9 | 2.7 | 0.4 | 0.8 | 49.1% | 24.1% | 1.3 | 47.1% | 13.9% | |
| 24 | Nordin Kapic | F | Sr | 6'8" | 22-4 | 10.8 | 3.9 | 2.0 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 52.1% | 34.0% | 2.1 | 69.2% | 21.7% | |
| 20 | Hayden Assemian | F | Fr | 6'6" | 24-4 | 9.8 | 2.4 | 2.5 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 69.4% | — | 0.0 | 57.1% | 13.7% | |
| 0 | Jordan Butler | F | Jr | 7'0" | 25-4 | 8.9 | 2.8 | 1.8 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 53.4% | 25.0% | 0.8 | 77.4% | 17.1% | |
| 14 | Eli Sparkman | G | Sr | 6'0" | 12-0 | 3.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.0 | 42.9% | 28.6% | 0.6 | — | 9.7% | |
| 7 | Abu Yarmah | G | Fr | 6'6" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 23 | Cam Scott | G | So | 6'6" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — |
Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.
Trends
Last 10 games of 2025-26South Carolina
Against the spread
Season
14-17-1
Home
6-12-1
Road
7-3
Last 10
5-5
avg cover +0.1
Missed the spread in the last gameCovered 5 of 10 as an underdogCovered 3 of 5 with a line of 10+
Over / under
Season
15-16-1
Home
9-10
Road
3-6-1
Last 10
3-7
avg vs total −2.5
Over in the last gameOver in 3 of 10 as an underdogOver in 1 of 5 with a line of 10+
Last 10 games, newest first
| Date | Opponent | Site | Result | Total | PPP for | PPP vs | Pace | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 11 | Oklahoma | N | L 74–86 | +8.0 | L−4.0 | 149.0 | O160 | 116.1 | 134.9 | 63.8 |
| Mar 7 | Ole Miss | A | W 64–61 | +7.0 | W+10.0 | 147.0 | U125 | 96.5 | 92.0 | 66.3 |
| Mar 3 | #23Tennessee | H | L 59–78 | +11.0 | L−8.0 | 142.0 | U137 | 95.8 | 126.6 | 61.6 |
| Feb 28 | Georgia | A | L 68–87 | +12.5 | L−6.5 | 159.0 | U155 | 107.0 | 136.9 | 63.5 |
| Feb 24 | Kentucky | H | L 63–72 | +7.5 | L−1.5 | 151.0 | U135 | 87.7 | 100.3 | 71.8 |
| Feb 21 | Mississippi St | H | W 97–89 | +1.0 | W+9.0 | 152.0 | O186 | 133.7 | 122.7 | 72.5 |
| Feb 17 | #12Florida | A | L 62–76 | +23.0 | W+9.0 | 155.0 | U138 | 92.5 | 113.4 | 67.0 |
| Feb 14 | Alabama | A | L 75–89 | +18.0 | W+4.0 | 169.5 | U164 | 99.1 | 117.6 | 75.7 |
| Feb 7 | Missouri | H | L 59–78 | +3.0 | L−16.0 | 147.0 | U137 | 90.0 | 119.0 | 65.5 |
| Feb 3 | Texas | A | L 75–84 | +13.5 | W+4.5 | 149.5 | O159 | 109.9 | 123.1 | 68.3 |
Arizona St
Against the spread
Season
20-12-1
Home
10-4-1
Road
5-6
Last 10
6-4
avg cover +0.2
Missed the spread in the last gameCovered 4 of 8 as an underdog
Over / under
Season
15-17-1
Home
4-11
Road
7-4
Last 10
3-7
avg vs total −6.8
Under in the last gameOver in 3 of 8 as an underdog
Last 10 games, newest first
| Date | Opponent | Site | Result | Total | PPP for | PPP vs | Pace | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 11 | #7Iowa State | N | L 42–91 | +12.5 | L−36.5 | 149.5 | U133 | 61.1 | 132.3 | 68.8 |
| Mar 10 | Baylor | N | W 83–79 | +5.0 | W+9.0 | 152.5 | O162 | 117.3 | 111.6 | 70.8 |
| Mar 7 | #6Iowa State | A | L 65–86 | +16.5 | L−4.5 | 148.0 | O151 | 89.1 | 117.9 | 73.0 |
| Mar 3 | #14Kansas | H | W 70–60 | +6.0 | W+16.0 | 150.0 | U130 | 96.7 | 82.8 | 72.4 |
| Feb 28 | Utah | H | W 73–60 | −7.0 | W+6.0 | 150.5 | U133 | 124.8 | 102.6 | 58.5 |
| Feb 24 | TCU | A | L 78–90 | +6.5 | L−5.5 | 149.0 | O168 | 104.1 | 120.1 | 75.0 |
| Feb 21 | Baylor | A | L 68–73 | +8.5 | W+3.5 | 158.0 | U141 | 104.0 | 111.6 | 65.4 |
| Feb 17 | #13Texas Tech | H | W 72–67 | +7.5 | W+12.5 | 155.5 | U139 | 108.9 | 101.3 | 66.1 |
| Feb 10 | Oklahoma St | H | W 85–76 | −2.5 | W+6.5 | 163.0 | U161 | 113.8 | 101.7 | 74.7 |
| Feb 7 | Colorado | A | L 70–78 | +3.5 | L−4.5 | 158.0 | U148 | 106.7 | 118.9 | 65.6 |
Records vs the closing line describe the past; ten games is a small sample.
Tale of the tape
national rank toned left for away, right for homeSouth CarolinaArizona St
Efficiency
109.7
110.9
107.3
106.4
67.6
69.5
—
—
Shooting
50.3%
51.1%
53.2%
51.7%
31.1%
33.4%
78.1%
75.3%
36.7%
39.5%
Ball control & glass
14.5%
17.1%
14.6%
18.5%
27.2%
29.8%
32.1%
34.9%
9.3%
10.5%
11.1%
9.6%
Style
44.4%
38.4%
39.4%
41.8%
8.7%
16.3%
52.9%
53.0%
35.7%
32.3%
Roster
2.25
2.82
6'5.7"
6'7"
52.6%
—
Offseason
roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model inputSouth Carolina
Returning minutes: 52.6%Returning production: 42.7%
Lost
- Meechie Johnson 31.5 mpg, 17.2 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Kobe Knox 29.9 mpg, 10.8 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Mike Sharavjamts 29.7 mpg, 10.9 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Christ Essandoko 4.9 mpg, 1.3 ppg · transferred to Bowling Green
Added
- Abu Yarmah no D1 minutes last season
- Cam Scott no D1 minutes last season
No incoming D1 transfers are listed on ESPN's roster yet — until they are, returning shares read high.
Returns 53% of last season's minutes; lost 3 of its top 5.
Arizona St
Returning minutes: 100.0%Returning production: 100.0%
ESPN hasn't posted Arizona St's roster for this season yet — no movement to show.
Returns 100% of last season's minutes. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026). (ESPN hasn't posted this season's roster yet -- this may still be last season's list.)
Head-to-head
this season and lastNo meetings the last two seasons.
The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — Pinnacle's spread and total (the median across books when Pinnacle has no line). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, built bottom-up from those same numbers: expected possessions times each side's opponent-adjusted points per possession, plus home court.
What these numbers mean: line shopping.