CBB Matchups
Every D1 game with tempo-free ratings, four factors and market lines, one place.
How the projection is built
each step, from an average D-I game to this oneSteps are rounded to one decimal, so they can differ from the total by 0.1: the total steps add to 154.0 against a projected 154.1. The margin is the same build seen from the home side; positive numbers help Purdue.
Pace & total
possessions per 40 minutesProjected possessions: 65.7, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw 2025-26 season pace, Oklahoma is the faster team (68.5, #174 of 365) and Purdue the slower (65.2, #324). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (study weights 0.80 vs 0.66).
How this game plays
what the study found each side's numbers actually do when these two teams meetShot diet
Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot · 2025-26 numbers| Zone | D-I avg | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Rim | 59.5%#143 | 62.6%#316 | 58.6% |
| Short 2 (≤9 ft) | 47.8%#25 | 44.3%#276 | 39.5% |
| Mid 2 (10 ft+) | 42.5%#46 | 43.0%#329 | 38.0% |
| Three | 36.5%#41 | 34.1%#192 | 33.7% |
| Zone | D-I avg | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Rim | 71.4%#1 | 60.1%#235 | 58.6% |
| Short 2 (≤9 ft) | 44.6%#70 | 40.3%#196 | 39.5% |
| Mid 2 (10 ft+) | 45.2%#13 | 35.0%#77 | 38.0% |
| Three | 38.3%#11 | 34.1%#189 | 33.7% |
Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).
Shot volume
Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line · 2025-26 numbersPurdue has more extra scoring chances per game: +5.1 (#20 of 365) to Oklahoma’s +1.1 (#134).
Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).
Rotation
| # | Player | Pos | Cl | Ht | GP-GS | MPG | PPG | RPG | APG | TOV | eFG% | 3P% | 3PA/g | FT% | Usage | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Xzayvier Brown | G | Sr | 6'3" | 37-37 | 32.3 | 15.4 | 3.2 | 3.3 | 1.6 | 52.6% | 34.3% | 4.9 | 87.4% | 27.3% | |
| 32 | Duke Brennanat Villanova | F | Sr | 6'10" | 32-32 | 31.0 | 12.4 | 10.3 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 65.8% | — | 0.0 | 61.3% | 22.3% | |
| 5 | B.J. Edwardsat SMU | G | Sr | 6'3" | 28-28 | 33.2 | 12.7 | 5.9 | 4.9 | 1.9 | 55.1% | 37.2% | 4.0 | 77.1% | 21.8% | |
| 35 | Derrion Reid | F | Jr | 6'8" | 37-37 | 27.5 | 11.7 | 4.4 | 1.1 | 1.0 | 57.1% | 35.8% | 2.6 | 76.1% | 22.1% | |
| 15 | Tyler Hendricksat Utah Valley | G | Sr | 6'6" | 28-28 | 29.8 | 11.8 | 4.3 | 1.9 | 1.3 | 61.7% | 44.8% | 4.8 | 79.1% | 20.4% | |
| 2 | Pop Isaacsat Texas A&M | G | Sr | 6'2" | 33-8 | 22.4 | 9.8 | 2.5 | 2.6 | 1.6 | 54.7% | 39.6% | 4.7 | 76.0% | 25.0% | |
| 11 | Khani Roothsat Louisville | F | Jr | 6'9" | 31-2 | 15.9 | 5.3 | 4.3 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 50.0% | 22.4% | 1.9 | 64.9% | 20.1% | |
| 7 | Dayton Forsythe | G | Jr | 6'2" | 28-0 | 17.2 | 5.3 | 1.4 | 1.8 | 1.0 | 40.0% | 28.1% | 2.0 | 86.0% | 21.8% | |
| 9 | Yaak Yaakat Oregon St | C | Sr | 7'0" | 25-9 | 15.0 | 6.6 | 2.2 | 0.4 | 1.0 | 52.6% | 27.3% | 0.4 | 82.9% | 25.8% | |
| 8 | Kai Rogers | F | So | 6'10" | 23-0 | 8.0 | 1.6 | 1.9 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 72.7% | — | 0.0 | 57.1% | 10.5% | |
| 6 | Finley Keeffe | F | So | 6'7" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 0 | Ben Moser | G | Sr | 6'3" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 4 | Gage Mayfield | F | Fr | 6'7" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 3 | Quincy Wadley | G | Fr | 6'5" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — |
| # | Player | Pos | Cl | Ht | GP-GS | MPG | PPG | RPG | APG | TOV | eFG% | 3P% | 3PA/g | FT% | Usage | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | C.J. Cox | G | So | 6'3" | 39-39 | 24.4 | 8.5 | 2.8 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 57.8% | 37.3% | 4.3 | 84.2% | 18.6% | |
| 24 | Gicarri Harris | G | So | 6'3" | 39-0 | 15.8 | 4.6 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 51.8% | 35.5% | 2.4 | 86.1% | 16.9% | |
| 17 | Omer Mayer | G | Fr | 6'4" | 39-0 | 14.3 | 5.5 | 1.1 | 1.2 | 0.9 | 51.3% | 35.5% | 2.8 | 65.2% | 26.2% | |
| 14 | Jack Benter | G | Fr | 6'6" | 38-2 | 14.7 | 4.4 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 62.8% | 40.9% | 2.3 | 60.9% | 16.4% | |
| 12 | Daniel Jacobsen | C | So | 7'4" | 39-0 | 12.9 | 5.5 | 3.0 | 0.3 | 0.6 | 65.7% | 37.5% | 0.2 | 62.7% | 22.4% | |
| 5 | Liam Murphy | F | Sr | 6'8" | 12-0 | 7.3 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.0 | 51.9% | 34.8% | 1.9 | — | 18.6% | |
| 9 | Jack Lusk | G | Jr | 6'4" | 9-0 | 2.0 | 0.0 | 0.3 | 0.0 | 0.1 | — | — | 0.0 | — | 3.2% | |
| 32 | Jace Rayl | G | Jr | 5'11" | 8-0 | 2.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0% | — | 0.0 | — | 6.9% | |
| 1 | Antione West Jr | G | Fr | 6'3" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 34 | Raleigh Burgess | F | So | 6'11" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 7 | Sam King | F | Sr | 6'9" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — |
| # | Player | Pos | Cl | Ht | GP-GS | MPG | PPG | RPG | APG | TOV | eFG% | 3P% | 3PA/g | FT% | Usage | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Xzayvier Brown | G | Sr | 6'3" | 37-37 | 32.3 | 15.4 | 3.2 | 3.3 | 1.6 | 52.6% | 34.3% | 4.9 | 87.4% | 27.3% | |
| 32 | Duke Brennanat Villanova | F | Sr | 6'10" | 32-32 | 31.0 | 12.4 | 10.3 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 65.8% | — | 0.0 | 61.3% | 22.3% | |
| 5 | B.J. Edwardsat SMU | G | Sr | 6'3" | 28-28 | 33.2 | 12.7 | 5.9 | 4.9 | 1.9 | 55.1% | 37.2% | 4.0 | 77.1% | 21.8% | |
| 35 | Derrion Reid | F | Jr | 6'8" | 37-37 | 27.5 | 11.7 | 4.4 | 1.1 | 1.0 | 57.1% | 35.8% | 2.6 | 76.1% | 22.1% | |
| 15 | Tyler Hendricksat Utah Valley | G | Sr | 6'6" | 28-28 | 29.8 | 11.8 | 4.3 | 1.9 | 1.3 | 61.7% | 44.8% | 4.8 | 79.1% | 20.4% | |
| 2 | Pop Isaacsat Texas A&M | G | Sr | 6'2" | 33-8 | 22.4 | 9.8 | 2.5 | 2.6 | 1.6 | 54.7% | 39.6% | 4.7 | 76.0% | 25.0% | |
| 11 | Khani Roothsat Louisville | F | Jr | 6'9" | 31-2 | 15.9 | 5.3 | 4.3 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 50.0% | 22.4% | 1.9 | 64.9% | 20.1% | |
| 7 | Dayton Forsythe | G | Jr | 6'2" | 28-0 | 17.2 | 5.3 | 1.4 | 1.8 | 1.0 | 40.0% | 28.1% | 2.0 | 86.0% | 21.8% | |
| 9 | Yaak Yaakat Oregon St | C | Sr | 7'0" | 25-9 | 15.0 | 6.6 | 2.2 | 0.4 | 1.0 | 52.6% | 27.3% | 0.4 | 82.9% | 25.8% | |
| 8 | Kai Rogers | F | So | 6'10" | 23-0 | 8.0 | 1.6 | 1.9 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 72.7% | — | 0.0 | 57.1% | 10.5% | |
| 6 | Finley Keeffe | F | So | 6'7" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 0 | Ben Moser | G | Sr | 6'3" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 4 | Gage Mayfield | F | Fr | 6'7" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 3 | Quincy Wadley | G | Fr | 6'5" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — |
Trends
Last 10 games of 2025-26| Date | Opponent | Site | Result | Total | PPP for | PPP vs | Pace | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 5 | West Virginia | N | L 82–89 OT | −3.0 | L−10.0 | 138.5 | O171 | 114.2 | 123.9 | 71.8 |
| Apr 4 | Baylor | N | W 82–69 | +1.5 | W+14.5 | 159.5 | U151 | 117.1 | 98.5 | 70.0 |
| Apr 1 | Colorado | N | W 90–86 OT | −9.0 | L−5.0 | 162.0 | O176 | 108.6 | 103.8 | 82.9 |
| Mar 13 | #17Arkansas | N | L 79–82 | +6.0 | W+3.0 | 167.0 | U161 | 112.9 | 117.2 | 70.0 |
| Mar 12 | Texas A&M | N | W 83–63 | +2.0 | W+22.0 | 162.0 | U146 | 127.0 | 96.4 | 65.3 |
| Mar 11 | South Carolina | N | W 86–74 | −8.0 | W+4.0 | 149.0 | O160 | 134.9 | 116.1 | 63.8 |
| Mar 7 | Texas | A | W 88–85 OT | +6.5 | W+9.5 | 153.5 | O173 | 113.6 | 109.7 | 77.5 |
| Mar 3 | Missouri | H | W 80–64 | −1.0 | W+15.0 | 154.0 | U144 | 125.9 | 100.7 | 63.5 |
| Feb 28 | LSU | A | W 83–67 | +2.0 | W+18.0 | 156.0 | U150 | 127.1 | 102.6 | 65.3 |
| Feb 24 | Auburn | H | W 91–79 | +3.0 | W+15.0 | 158.0 | O170 | 137.2 | 119.1 | 66.3 |
| Date | Opponent | Site | Result | Total | PPP for | PPP vs | Pace | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 28 | #1Arizona | N | L 64–79 | +5.0 | L−10.0 | 152.5 | U143 | 98.0 | 121.0 | 65.3 |
| Mar 26 | #11Texas | N | W 79–77 | −8.5 | L−6.5 | 146.5 | O156 | 129.9 | 126.6 | 60.8 |
| Mar 22 | #7Miami | N | W 79–69 | −8.0 | W+2.0 | 146.5 | O148 | 120.4 | 105.2 | 65.6 |
| Mar 20 | #15Queens | N | W 104–71 | −25.5 | W+7.5 | 159.5 | O175 | 154.0 | 105.1 | 67.5 |
| Mar 15 | #3Michigan | N | W 80–72 | +5.5 | W+13.5 | 149.5 | O152 | 127.7 | 114.9 | 62.7 |
| Mar 14 | UCLA | N | W 73–66 | −7.0 | P0.0 | 145.0 | U139 | 122.4 | 110.7 | 59.6 |
| Mar 13 | #11Nebraska | N | W 74–58 | −4.5 | W+11.5 | 146.0 | U132 | 122.4 | 95.9 | 60.5 |
| Mar 12 | Northwestern | N | W 81–68 | −13.5 | L−0.5 | 140.0 | O149 | 136.3 | 114.4 | 59.4 |
| Mar 7 | Wisconsin | H | L 93–97 | −9.5 | L−13.5 | 154.0 | O190 | 141.5 | 147.6 | 65.7 |
| Mar 4 | Northwestern | A | W 70–66 | −10.5 | L−6.5 | 145.5 | U136 | 121.8 | 114.9 | 57.5 |
Records vs the closing line describe the past; ten games is a small sample.
Tale of the tape
national rank toned left for away, right for homeOffseason
roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model input- Nijel Pack 30.5 mpg, 16.8 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Tae Davis 29.7 mpg, 13.0 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Mohamed Wague 22.4 mpg, 6.9 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Jadon Jones 18.0 mpg, 5.1 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Kirill Elatontsev 8.6 mpg, 2.5 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Kuol Atak 8.0 mpg, 4.5 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Duke Brennan from Villanova · 30.1 mpg, 12.1 ppg last season
- B.J. Edwards from SMU · 27.4 mpg, 10.5 ppg last season
- Tyler Hendricks from Utah Valley · 24.5 mpg, 9.7 ppg last season
- Pop Isaacs from Texas A&M · 21.7 mpg, 9.5 ppg last season
- Khani Rooths from Louisville · 14.1 mpg, 4.7 ppg last season
- Yaak Yaak from Oregon St · 11.3 mpg, 5.0 ppg last season
Returns 38% of last season's minutes; lost 3 of its top 5. Teams returning under 40% of last season's minutes have historically fallen about 0.8 points of AdjEM (n=716 team-seasons, 2022-2026).
- Braden Smith 34.5 mpg, 14.3 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Fletcher Loyer 29.3 mpg, 14.1 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Trey Kaufman-Renn 26.7 mpg, 13.4 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Oscar Cluff 24.7 mpg, 10.6 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Aaron Fine 0.6 mpg, 0.3 ppg · transferred to Ball State
- Antione West Jr no D1 minutes last season
- Raleigh Burgess no D1 minutes last season
- Sam King no D1 minutes last season
No incoming D1 transfers are listed on ESPN's roster yet — until they are, returning shares read high.
Returns 42% of last season's minutes; lost 4 of its top 5.
Head-to-head
this season and lastThe CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — Pinnacle's spread and total (the median across books when Pinnacle has no line). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, built bottom-up from those same numbers: expected possessions times each side's opponent-adjusted points per possession, plus home court.
What these numbers mean: line shopping.