CBB Matchups
Every D1 game with tempo-free ratings, four factors and market lines, one place.
College basketball is being built for the 2026-27 season (tip-off Nov 3). What's here fills in as games are played.
Non-conferenceNeutral siteResorts World Event Center, Las Vegas, NVResorts World Classic
Jax State
Efficiency #215
2025-26: 15-17 · 10-11 conf
vs
UC Davis
Efficiency #185
2025-26: 19-14 · 12-10 conf
Thu, Nov 26 · TBD
71.5
win 47%
Projected
72.3
win 53%
No line posted yet.
Model: UCD −0.8 · total 143.7 · ratings as of Sat, Oct 3
Preseason ratings start from 2025-26's final adjusted ratings, regressed toward the D1 average. The stats below are 2025-26's too; both update once 2026-27 games are played.
How the projection is built
each step, from an average D-I game to this oneProjected total
Average D-I game
148.2
PaceAdjusted tempo: UC Davis 69.3, Jax State 66.8 → 67.8 possessions
−1.0
UC Davis offense vs Jax State defense
−1.3
Jax State offense vs UC Davis defense
−2.1
Projected total
143.7
Axis starts at 140 pointsPoints added or removed at each step
Projected margin
Even game
0.0
UC Davis offense vs Jax State defense
−1.3
Jax State offense vs UC Davis defense
+2.1
UC Davis by 0.8
0.8
Jax State side ◂▸ UC Davis side
Steps are rounded to one decimal, so they can differ from the total by 0.1: the total steps add to 143.8 against a projected 143.7. The margin is the same build seen from the home side; positive numbers help UC Davis.
Pace & total
possessions per 40 minutesTempo, possessions per 40 minutes
Projected possessions: 67.8, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw 2025-26 season pace, UC Davis is the faster team (71.3, #41 of 365) and Jax State the slower (65.7, #306). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (study weights 0.80 vs 0.66).
Projected possessions
67.8
per team, 40 min
Projected total
143.7
model
Projected team totals
71.5 / 72.3
Jax State / UC Davis
Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent
66.8#300
Jax State
69.3#99
UC Davis
How this game plays
what the study found each side's numbers actually do when these two teams meetAdvantageUC Davis
Where UC Davis struggles: the offensive glass
UC Davis rebounds 25.2% of its own misses (#334); Jax State lets opponents grab 28.0% of their own misses (#67). Expect about 25.6%, 4.8 points below an average D1 matchup — worth roughly -2.9 points per 100 possessions.
Pace
Tempo tug-of-war
UC Davis averages 71.3 possessions per 40, Jax State 65.7. Slower teams pull the pace toward themselves more than fast teams push it (0.80 vs 0.66 in five seasons of games), so expect about 68 — more possessions mean more points in the total and more chances for the better team to separate.
AdvantageJax State
Where Jax State struggles: ball control
Jax State turns it over on 17.0% of possessions (#205); UC Davis forces turnovers on 19.8% of opponent possessions (#30). Expect about 18.8%, 2.0 points above an average D1 matchup — worth roughly -2.5 points per 100 possessions.
ClashUC Davis
Style match: 3-point volume
UC Davis takes 43.5% of its shots from three; Jax State lets opponents take 42.9% of their shots from three (D1 average 39.5%). Expect about 44.9% — both habits push the same way.
ClashUC Davis
Style match: paint scoring
UC Davis gets only 37.0% of its points in the paint; Jax State protects the paint (38.7% of opponents' points) (D1 average 42.8%). Expect about 40.0% — both habits push the same way.
Jax State has the ball
OffenseUC Davis allowsvs D1 avg
49.7% #253
51.7% #197
-0.9 pt/100
17.0% #205
19.8% #30
-2.5 pt/100
29.8% #208
30.5% #182
-0.2 pt/100
43.1% #21
39.1% #290
+0.8 pt/100
68.4% #314
—
-0.3 pt/100
Jax State net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: -3.2 pts/100
UC Davis has the ball
OffenseJax State allowsvs D1 avg
51.8% #157
49.6% #85
-0.8 pt/100
17.9% #266
16.2% #207
-0.4 pt/100
25.2% #334
28.0% #67
-2.9 pt/100
40.5% #53
38.7% #278
+0.6 pt/100
75.3% #74
—
+0.3 pt/100
UC Davis net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: -3.2 pts/100
Shot diet
Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot · 2025-26 numbersJax Stateoffense vsUC Davisdefense
Share of shots by zone
Jax State shoots
45.6
6.1
10.3
38.0
UC Davis allows
44.1
5.0
12.7
38.2
D-I average
38.5
6.4
15.8
39.3
FG% by zone
| Zone | D-I avg | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Rim | 52.0%#349 | 58.4%#164 | 58.6% |
| Short 2 (≤9 ft) | 40.9%#150 | 41.2%#213 | 39.5% |
| Mid 2 (10 ft+) | 29.5%#357 | 33.6%#42 | 38.0% |
| Three | 35.7%#76 | 33.8%#172 | 33.7% |
UC Davisoffense vsJax Statedefense
Share of shots by zone
UC Davis shoots
35.7
3.8
16.7
43.8
Jax State allows
38.4
5.4
13.5
42.7
D-I average
38.5
6.4
15.8
39.3
FG% by zone
| Zone | D-I avg | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Rim | 59.5%#141 | 55.4%#74 | 58.6% |
| Short 2 (≤9 ft) | 37.5%#236 | 44.0%#268 | 39.5% |
| Mid 2 (10 ft+) | 38.0%#189 | 34.1%#53 | 38.0% |
| Three | 34.4%#149 | 33.3%#141 | 33.7% |
RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three
Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).
Shot volume
Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line · 2025-26 numbersJax State
+1.4extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#125 of 365
Off reb %
29.8%
#208
Def reb %
72.0%
#67
Turnover %
17.0%
#205
Forced TO %
16.2%
#207
FT rate
43.1%
#21
FT allowed
38.7%
#278
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding−0.2
Defensive rebounding+0.8
Ball security−0.2
Forcing turnovers−0.3
Foul shots drawn+2.1
Foul shots allowed−0.9
UC Davis
+0.1extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#176 of 365
Off reb %
25.2%
#334
Def reb %
69.5%
#182
Turnover %
17.9%
#266
Forced TO %
19.8%
#30
FT rate
40.5%
#53
FT allowed
39.1%
#290
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding−1.7
Defensive rebounding0.0
Ball security−0.8
Forcing turnovers+2.1
Foul shots drawn+1.4
Foul shots allowed−1.0
Jax State has more extra scoring chances per game: +1.4 (#125 of 365) to UC Davis’s +0.1 (#176).
Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).
Rotation
Jax State2025-26 numbers
ESPN hasn't posted Jax State's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.
| # | Player | Pos | Cl | Ht | GP-GS | MPG | PPG | RPG | APG | TOV | eFG% | 3P% | 3PA/g | FT% | Usage | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Jacoby Hill | G | Fr | 6'4" | 32-30 | 30.5 | 10.0 | 3.9 | 1.7 | 1.4 | 56.4% | 35.5% | 1.9 | 70.9% | 19.4% | |
| 23 | Mostapha El Moutaouakkil | G | Sr | 6'6" | 32-30 | 29.9 | 19.5 | 7.2 | 1.3 | 2.9 | 49.4% | 34.6% | 3.3 | 65.7% | 42.3% | |
| 0 | AC Bryant | G | Sr | 6'3" | 31-27 | 27.7 | 11.8 | 3.9 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 54.3% | 39.1% | 7.3 | 68.5% | 24.4% | |
| 3 | Jaye Nash | G | So | 6'3" | 32-15 | 25.8 | 5.1 | 2.8 | 4.0 | 1.8 | 34.3% | 28.6% | 1.1 | 69.2% | 17.6% | |
| 13 | Emondrek Erkins-Ford | F | Jr | 6'9" | 32-8 | 21.5 | 8.3 | 3.8 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 55.1% | 33.3% | 0.8 | 64.5% | 22.8% | |
| 99 | Iaroslav Niagu | F | Jr | 7'0" | 29-17 | 20.8 | 4.2 | 5.1 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 48.9% | — | 0.0 | 74.5% | 14.5% | |
| 1 | Marcus Fitzgerald Jr. | G | Sr | 6'2" | 29-13 | 18.3 | 5.0 | 1.5 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 50.8% | 34.9% | 2.9 | 80.8% | 17.8% | |
| 11 | Jamar Franklin | G | Sr | 6'3" | 26-11 | 16.2 | 6.2 | 1.6 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 53.8% | 37.3% | 4.5 | 57.1% | 22.3% | |
| 7 | Toby Nnadozie | G | Sr | 6'3" | 23-0 | 9.0 | 2.0 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 35.1% | 18.2% | 1.0 | 75.0% | 19.8% | |
| 21 | Aitor Anabitarte | F | Sr | 6'8" | 17-7 | 7.4 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 64.7% | — | 0.0 | 85.7% | 12.6% | |
| 5 | Bencao Vungo | G | Jr | 6'6" | 8-2 | 13.3 | 4.0 | 6.4 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 51.9% | 22.2% | 1.1 | 66.7% | 19.2% | |
| 42 | Thomas Tut | F | Sr | 6'10" | 14-0 | 7.1 | 2.2 | 1.3 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 52.3% | 50.0% | 0.4 | 80.0% | 18.9% | |
| 14 | Connor Loy | G | Fr | 5'11" | 7-0 | 5.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 0.4 | — | 11.6% | |
| 55 | Aidan Driggers | F | Sr | 6'6" | 5-0 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 50.0% | 0.0% | 0.2 | — | 15.7% | |
| 8 | Jordan Vick | G | Fr | 5'10" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — |
Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.
UC Davis2025-26 numbers
ESPN hasn't posted UC Davis's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.
| # | Player | Pos | Cl | Ht | GP-GS | MPG | PPG | RPG | APG | TOV | eFG% | 3P% | 3PA/g | FT% | Usage | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Connor Sevilla | G | Jr | 6'0" | 31-31 | 31.1 | 13.3 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 1.4 | 53.4% | 39.9% | 5.4 | 90.3% | 22.2% | |
| 2 | Marcus Wilson | G | Fr | 6'3" | 33-33 | 26.4 | 12.5 | 3.2 | 3.9 | 2.2 | 48.1% | 32.4% | 3.1 | 78.5% | 29.1% | |
| 20 | Isaiah Chappell | F | So | 6'9" | 33-18 | 24.1 | 8.5 | 4.6 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 52.3% | 35.6% | 4.9 | 60.0% | 20.6% | |
| 0 | Brayden Fagbemi | G | Jr | 6'0" | 31-3 | 25.4 | 7.0 | 3.5 | 4.3 | 2.0 | 46.8% | 27.3% | 1.8 | 64.7% | 19.7% | |
| 7 | Niko Rocak | F | Sr | 6'9" | 32-32 | 24.2 | 9.4 | 5.2 | 1.8 | 1.8 | 59.7% | 36.1% | 2.6 | 68.1% | 21.8% | |
| 36 | Nils Cooper | G | Jr | 6'6" | 27-23 | 24.7 | 12.3 | 4.6 | 1.9 | 1.6 | 57.2% | 23.8% | 1.6 | 73.7% | 26.2% | |
| 1 | Carl Daughtery Jr. | G | Sr | 6'3" | 24-9 | 26.5 | 10.0 | 3.3 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 55.1% | 42.0% | 4.7 | 73.3% | 19.4% | |
| 21 | Omer Suljanovic | F | Fr | 6'8" | 32-9 | 14.7 | 5.6 | 3.0 | 0.4 | 1.2 | 46.6% | 24.6% | 1.8 | 68.3% | 25.5% | |
| 5 | Jalen Stokes | G | Fr | 6'5" | 27-7 | 13.9 | 4.7 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 48.9% | 33.3% | 0.8 | 87.8% | 19.7% | |
| 10 | Cyril Franklin Jr. | G | So | 6'5" | 19-0 | 7.1 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 52.2% | 0.0% | 0.3 | 33.3% | 13.6% | |
| 8 | Chase Rawlins | G | Fr | 6'5" | 19-0 | 5.6 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 54.8% | 42.9% | 0.4 | 77.8% | 17.8% | |
| 14 | Abdullah Amzil | F | Fr | 6'7" | 15-0 | 3.1 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 35.7% | 20.0% | 0.3 | 100.0% | 10.3% | |
| 11 | Ylan Esso-Essis | G | So | 6'8" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — |
Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.
Jax State2025-26 numbers
ESPN hasn't posted Jax State's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.
| # | Player | Pos | Cl | Ht | GP-GS | MPG | PPG | RPG | APG | TOV | eFG% | 3P% | 3PA/g | FT% | Usage | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Jacoby Hill | G | Fr | 6'4" | 32-30 | 30.5 | 10.0 | 3.9 | 1.7 | 1.4 | 56.4% | 35.5% | 1.9 | 70.9% | 19.4% | |
| 23 | Mostapha El Moutaouakkil | G | Sr | 6'6" | 32-30 | 29.9 | 19.5 | 7.2 | 1.3 | 2.9 | 49.4% | 34.6% | 3.3 | 65.7% | 42.3% | |
| 0 | AC Bryant | G | Sr | 6'3" | 31-27 | 27.7 | 11.8 | 3.9 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 54.3% | 39.1% | 7.3 | 68.5% | 24.4% | |
| 3 | Jaye Nash | G | So | 6'3" | 32-15 | 25.8 | 5.1 | 2.8 | 4.0 | 1.8 | 34.3% | 28.6% | 1.1 | 69.2% | 17.6% | |
| 13 | Emondrek Erkins-Ford | F | Jr | 6'9" | 32-8 | 21.5 | 8.3 | 3.8 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 55.1% | 33.3% | 0.8 | 64.5% | 22.8% | |
| 99 | Iaroslav Niagu | F | Jr | 7'0" | 29-17 | 20.8 | 4.2 | 5.1 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 48.9% | — | 0.0 | 74.5% | 14.5% | |
| 1 | Marcus Fitzgerald Jr. | G | Sr | 6'2" | 29-13 | 18.3 | 5.0 | 1.5 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 50.8% | 34.9% | 2.9 | 80.8% | 17.8% | |
| 11 | Jamar Franklin | G | Sr | 6'3" | 26-11 | 16.2 | 6.2 | 1.6 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 53.8% | 37.3% | 4.5 | 57.1% | 22.3% | |
| 7 | Toby Nnadozie | G | Sr | 6'3" | 23-0 | 9.0 | 2.0 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 35.1% | 18.2% | 1.0 | 75.0% | 19.8% | |
| 21 | Aitor Anabitarte | F | Sr | 6'8" | 17-7 | 7.4 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 64.7% | — | 0.0 | 85.7% | 12.6% | |
| 5 | Bencao Vungo | G | Jr | 6'6" | 8-2 | 13.3 | 4.0 | 6.4 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 51.9% | 22.2% | 1.1 | 66.7% | 19.2% | |
| 42 | Thomas Tut | F | Sr | 6'10" | 14-0 | 7.1 | 2.2 | 1.3 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 52.3% | 50.0% | 0.4 | 80.0% | 18.9% | |
| 14 | Connor Loy | G | Fr | 5'11" | 7-0 | 5.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 0.4 | — | 11.6% | |
| 55 | Aidan Driggers | F | Sr | 6'6" | 5-0 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 50.0% | 0.0% | 0.2 | — | 15.7% | |
| 8 | Jordan Vick | G | Fr | 5'10" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — |
Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.
Trends
Last 10 games of 2025-26Jax State
Against the spread
Season
13-15-1
Home
6-8
Road
7-5-1
Last 10
6-4
avg cover +0.5
Missed the spread in the last gameCovered 5 of 7 as an underdog
Over / under
Season
17-12
Home
7-7
Road
10-3
Last 10
6-4
avg vs total +3.5
Under 2 straightOver in 4 of 7 as an underdog
Last 10 games, newest first
| Date | Opponent | Site | Result | Total | PPP for | PPP vs | Pace | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 10 | New Mexico St | N | L 63–68 | +1.5 | L−3.5 | 142.0 | U131 | 98.1 | 105.9 | 64.2 |
| Mar 7 | UTEP | A | W 64–61 | +1.0 | W+4.0 | 139.0 | U125 | 95.6 | 91.1 | 67.0 |
| Mar 5 | New Mexico St | A | L 75–77 OT | +6.0 | W+4.0 | 145.5 | O152 | 98.8 | 101.5 | 75.9 |
| Feb 28 | Liberty | H | L 78–81 | +4.0 | W+1.0 | 139.0 | O159 | 122.8 | 127.5 | 63.5 |
| Feb 26 | Delaware | H | W 80–70 OT | −7.5 | W+2.5 | 134.0 | O150 | 119.8 | 104.8 | 66.8 |
| Feb 21 | Sam Houston | A | L 78–82 | +7.5 | W+3.5 | 148.5 | O160 | 115.7 | 121.6 | 67.4 |
| Feb 18 | Louisiana Tech | A | L 71–77 | +2.0 | L−4.0 | 133.0 | O148 | 101.1 | 109.6 | 70.2 |
| Feb 14 | New Mexico St | H | L 70–79 | −2.5 | L−11.5 | 140.5 | O149 | 106.3 | 119.9 | 65.9 |
| Feb 11 | UTEP | H | L 64–69 | −6.5 | L−11.5 | 135.5 | U133 | 107.0 | 115.3 | 59.8 |
| Feb 7 | Kennesaw St | H | W 77–58 | +1.5 | W+20.5 | 150.0 | U135 | 116.3 | 87.6 | 66.2 |
UC Davis
Against the spread
Season
17-13-1
Home
9-5
Road
7-7-1
Last 10
5-4-1
avg cover +0.6
Missed the spread in the last gameCovered 4 of 4 as a favoriteCovered 1 of 6 as an underdog, 1 push
Over / under
Season
17-14
Home
7-7
Road
9-6
Last 10
5-5
avg vs total −6.0
Under in the last gameOver in 1 of 4 as a favoriteOver in 4 of 6 as an underdog
Last 10 games, newest first
| Date | Opponent | Site | Result | Total | PPP for | PPP vs | Pace | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 12 | Fullerton | N | L 70–82 | +1.0 | L−11.0 | 155.0 | U152 | 84.4 | 98.9 | 82.9 |
| Mar 11 | Santa Barbara | N | W 79–73 | +4.5 | W+10.5 | 139.5 | O152 | 107.2 | 99.1 | 73.7 |
| Mar 7 | UC Irvine | A | L 69–79 OT | +8.5 | L−1.5 | 145.0 | O148 | 92.6 | 106.0 | 74.6 |
| Mar 5 | Long Beach St | A | W 76–70 OT | −2.0 | W+4.0 | 150.0 | U146 | 95.7 | 88.2 | 79.4 |
| Feb 26 | Hawai'i | H | L 73–77 | +2.0 | L−2.0 | 147.0 | O150 | 106.2 | 112.0 | 68.8 |
| Feb 21 | UC Riverside | A | W 78–73 | −3.0 | W+2.0 | 150.0 | O151 | 104.9 | 98.2 | 74.4 |
| Feb 19 | Fullerton | A | L 92–93 | +1.0 | P0.0 | 157.0 | O185 | 138.1 | 139.6 | 66.6 |
| Feb 14 | Long Beach St | H | W 71–54 | −5.0 | W+12.0 | 149.5 | U125 | 100.8 | 76.6 | 70.5 |
| Feb 12 | UC San Diego | A | L 51–68 | +6.0 | L−11.0 | 150.5 | U119 | 72.5 | 96.7 | 70.3 |
| Feb 7 | Cal Poly | H | W 67–58 | −6.0 | W+3.0 | 169.0 | U125 | 96.6 | 83.6 | 69.4 |
Records vs the closing line describe the past; ten games is a small sample.
Tale of the tape
national rank toned left for away, right for homeJax StateUC Davis
Efficiency
106.0
107.2
107.8
107.8
66.8
69.3
—
—
Shooting
49.7%
51.8%
47.4%
51.9%
35.7%
34.4%
68.4%
75.3%
43.1%
40.5%
Ball control & glass
17.0%
17.9%
16.2%
19.8%
29.8%
25.2%
28.0%
30.5%
9.0%
9.2%
9.7%
10.3%
Style
38.1%
43.5%
42.3%
37.0%
12.3%
13.1%
49.6%
59.9%
35.3%
34.0%
Roster
3.06
2.51
6'5.2"
6'4.5"
—
—
Offseason
roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model inputJax State
Returning minutes: 100.0%Returning production: 100.0%
ESPN hasn't posted Jax State's roster for this season yet — no movement to show.
Returns 100% of last season's minutes. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026). (ESPN hasn't posted this season's roster yet -- this may still be last season's list.)
UC Davis
Returning minutes: 99.7%Returning production: 100.1%
ESPN hasn't posted UC Davis's roster for this season yet — no movement to show.
Returns 100% of last season's minutes. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026). (ESPN hasn't posted this season's roster yet -- this may still be last season's list.)
Head-to-head
this season and lastNo meetings the last two seasons.
The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — Pinnacle's spread and total (the median across books when Pinnacle has no line). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, built bottom-up from those same numbers: expected possessions times each side's opponent-adjusted points per possession, plus home court.
What these numbers mean: line shopping.