CBB Matchups
Every D1 game with tempo-free ratings, four factors and market lines, one place.
College basketball is being built for the 2026-27 season (tip-off Nov 3). What's here fills in as games are played.
Non-conferenceNeutral sitePalazzo dello Sport, Rome, ItalyEternal City Tip-Off
Notre Dame
Efficiency #106
2025-26: 13-18 · 4-14 conf
vs
Villanova
Efficiency #40
2025-26: 24-9 · 15-6 conf
Sun, Nov 1 · 9:30 AM ET
70.5
win 34%
Projected
75.4
win 66%
No line posted yet.
Model spread -4.9 · total 145.9 · ratings as of Sat, Sep 26
Preseason ratings start from 2025-26's final adjusted ratings, regressed toward the D1 average. The stats below are 2025-26's too; both update once 2026-27 games are played.
How this game plays
what the study found each side's numbers actually do when these two teams meetEdgeVillanova
Where Villanova scores: ball control
Villanova turns it over on 15.0% of possessions (#66); Notre Dame forces turnovers on 14.0% of opponent possessions (#337). Expect about 14.0%, 2.8 points below an average D1 matchup — worth roughly +3.4 points per 100 possessions.
ClashVillanova
Style match: 3-point volume
Villanova takes 45.7% of its shots from three; Notre Dame lets opponents take 47.4% of their shots from three (D1 average 39.5%). Expect about 49.6% — both habits push the same way.
EdgeNotre Dame
Where Notre Dame struggles: ball control
Notre Dame turns it over on 17.0% of possessions (#202); Villanova forces turnovers on 18.6% of opponent possessions (#69). Expect about 18.0%, 1.2 points above an average D1 matchup — worth roughly -1.5 points per 100 possessions.
Tempo
Notre Dame
66.7
66.7
Villanova
66.5
57 poss/4080D1 avg 68.366.5
and pulls this game toward it a bit more than Notre Dame's faster pace pulls the other way, landing the expected pace at 65.8 possessions per 40.
Notre Dame has the ball
OffenseVillanova allowsvs D1 avg
52.3% #133
51.4% #181
+0.9 pt/100
17.0% #202
18.6% #69
-1.5 pt/100
31.2% #155
31.8% #246
+0.8 pt/100
34.1% #206
30.0% #59
-0.4 pt/100
69.7% #278
—
-0.2 pt/100
Notre Dame's edge across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: -0.5 pts/100
Villanova has the ball
OffenseNotre Dame allowsvs D1 avg
53.8% #74
51.8% #200
+2.4 pt/100
15.0% #66
14.0% #337
+3.4 pt/100
32.2% #118
26.7% #27
-0.3 pt/100
30.9% #284
36.2% #214
-0.2 pt/100
68.9% #302
—
-0.3 pt/100
Villanova's edge across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: +5.1 pts/100
How the points get scored
ratings through Sat, Sep 26 · preseasonProjected spread
-4.9
Villanova line
Projected total
145.9
Possessions
66.0
per team, 40 min
Model version
cbb-baseline-1.0
| Notre Dame | Villanova | → | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 67.4 #251 | 66.8 #299 | 66.0 possessions | |
| Notre Dame offense vs Villanova defense | 111.4 #88 | 104.1 #51 | 106.9 ppp → 70.5 pts |
| Villanova offense vs Notre Dame defense | 115.0 #48 | 107.9 #162 | 114.3 ppp → 75.4 pts |
Neutral site — no home-court edge applied.
Tale of the tape
national rank toned left for away, right for homeNotre DameVillanova
Efficiency
111.4
115.0
107.9
104.1
67.4
66.8
—
—
Shooting
52.3%
53.8%
51.4%
54.0%
35.6%
35.7%
69.7%
68.9%
34.1%
30.9%
Ball control & glass
17.0%
15.0%
14.0%
18.6%
31.2%
32.2%
26.7%
31.8%
9.1%
7.6%
8.8%
7.3%
Style
43.5%
45.7%
40.2%
40.3%
9.8%
11.7%
47.4%
56.8%
31.4%
27.3%
Roster
2.20
1.87
6'6.1"
6'4.7"
86.9%
73.7%
Offseason
roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model inputNotre Dame
Returning minutes: 86.9%Returning production: 85.3%
Lost
- Carson Towt 26.0 mpg, 5.9 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Mark Zackery IV 0.6 mpg, 0.1 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
Added
- Tommy Ahneman no D1 minutes last season
- Luke Devine no D1 minutes last season
No incoming D1 transfers are listed on ESPN's roster yet — until they are, returning shares read high.
Returns 87% of last season's minutes; lost 1 of its top 5. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026).
Villanova
Returning minutes: 73.7%Returning production: 68.4%
Lost
- Duke Brennan 30.1 mpg, 12.1 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Devin Askew 23.1 mpg, 9.8 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
Added
- Nico Onyekwere no D1 minutes last season
No incoming D1 transfers are listed on ESPN's roster yet — until they are, returning shares read high.
Returns 74% of last season's minutes; lost 1 of its top 5. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026).
Recent form
last 10 games of 2025-26Notre Dame
| Date | Opponent | Site | Result | PPP for | PPP vs | Pace |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat, Mar 7 | Boston CollegeAdjEM #187 | A | L 69–77 | 91.7 | 102.4 | 75.2 |
| Wed, Mar 4 | StanfordAdjEM #77 | H | L 78–86 | 122.9 | 135.5 | 63.5 |
| Sat, Feb 28 | NC StateAdjEM #34 | H | W 96–90 1OT | 134.5 | 126.1 | 71.4 |
| Tue, Feb 24 | #1DukeAdjEM #2 | H | L 56–100 | 78.3 | 139.8 | 71.5 |
| Sat, Feb 21 | PittAdjEM #120 | A | L 68–73 | 108.4 | 116.4 | 62.7 |
| Sat, Feb 14 | Georgia TechAdjEM #200 | H | W 89–74 | 129.3 | 107.5 | 68.8 |
| Tue, Feb 10 | SMUAdjEM #44 | A | L 81–89 | 117.2 | 128.8 | 69.1 |
| Sat, Feb 7 | Florida StAdjEM #74 | H | L 79–82 | 109.1 | 113.2 | 72.4 |
| Wed, Feb 4 | #24LouisvilleAdjEM #14 | A | L 65–76 | 94.1 | 110.0 | 69.1 |
| Sat, Jan 31 | SyracuseAdjEM #85 | A | L 72–86 | 107.1 | 127.9 | 67.2 |
Villanova
| Date | Opponent | Site | Result | PPP for | PPP vs | Pace |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fri, Mar 20 | #9Utah StateAdjEM #24 | N | L 76–86 | 111.5 | 126.2 | 68.1 |
| Thu, Mar 12 | GeorgetownAdjEM #95 | N | L 64–78 | 99.4 | 121.1 | 64.4 |
| Sat, Mar 7 | XavierAdjEM #129 | H | W 91–78 | 128.2 | 109.9 | 71.0 |
| Wed, Mar 4 | DePaulAdjEM #113 | A | W 76–57 | 108.2 | 81.1 | 70.3 |
| Sat, Feb 28 | #15St John'sAdjEM #16 | A | L 57–89 | 78.6 | 122.8 | 72.5 |
| Wed, Feb 25 | ButlerAdjEM #87 | H | W 82–73 | 116.7 | 103.9 | 70.2 |
| Sat, Feb 21 | #5UConnAdjEM #10 | H | L 63–73 | 100.1 | 116.0 | 62.9 |
| Tue, Feb 17 | XavierAdjEM #129 | A | W 92–89 1OT | 116.7 | 112.9 | 78.8 |
| Sat, Feb 14 | CreightonAdjEM #92 | A | W 80–69 | 115.3 | 99.5 | 69.4 |
| Tue, Feb 10 | MarquetteAdjEM #100 | H | W 77–74 | 109.8 | 105.5 | 70.1 |
Players
Notre Dame2025-26 numbers
| # | Player | Pos | Cl | Ht | GP-GS | MPG | PPG | RPG | APG | TOV | eFG% | 3P% | 3PA/g | FT% | Usage | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Braeden Shrewsberry | G | Jr | 6'4" | 31-31 | 32.7 | 11.9 | 3.1 | 1.9 | 1.1 | 53.2% | 40.2% | 7.1 | 77.8% | 21.8% | |
| 5 | Cole Certa | G | So | 6'5" | 31-16 | 26.9 | 12.8 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 50.8% | 36.7% | 7.1 | 89.2% | 26.6% | |
| 10 | Jalen Haralson | F | Fr | 6'7" | 27-23 | 26.7 | 16.2 | 4.0 | 2.6 | 2.7 | 52.3% | 20.0% | 0.9 | 67.4% | 38.7% | |
| 2 | Logan Imes | G | Jr | 6'4" | 31-10 | 21.1 | 4.7 | 3.2 | 1.7 | 1.2 | 46.2% | 32.5% | 2.5 | 52.4% | 17.7% | |
| 12 | Garrett Sundra | F | So | 6'11" | 31-16 | 17.9 | 3.5 | 3.2 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 53.3% | 30.8% | 1.7 | 63.2% | 12.1% | |
| 13 | Sir Mohammed | G | So | 6'6" | 31-5 | 16.4 | 5.7 | 2.6 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 45.6% | 28.6% | 1.4 | 54.5% | 27.6% | |
| 6 | Brady Koehler | F | Fr | 6'10" | 30-13 | 15.9 | 5.6 | 3.2 | 0.3 | 0.9 | 53.6% | 38.2% | 1.8 | 73.9% | 21.2% | |
| 3 | Markus Burton | G | Jr | 6'0" | 10-10 | 30.1 | 18.5 | 2.8 | 3.7 | 2.6 | 53.0% | 30.6% | 3.6 | 91.7% | 36.8% | |
| 14 | Kebba Njie | F | Sr | 6'10" | 17-0 | 11.5 | 2.5 | 3.4 | 0.2 | 0.6 | 63.2% | 0.0% | 0.1 | 72.0% | 13.0% | |
| 7 | Ryder Frost | F | Fr | 6'7" | 24-0 | 6.8 | 3.0 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 57.9% | 38.5% | 2.2 | 62.5% | 24.3% | |
| 34 | Matthew MacLellan | F | Sr | 6'9" | 9-0 | 4.9 | 1.9 | 1.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 85.7% | — | 0.0 | 71.4% | 14.6% | |
| 0 | Brady Stevens | G | Fr | 6'4" | 5-0 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 33.3% | 0.0% | 0.2 | 50.0% | 23.3% | |
| 22 | Luke Devine | F | Fr | 6'7" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 15 | Tommy Ahneman | C | Fr | 6'10" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — |
Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.
Villanova2025-26 numbers
| # | Player | Pos | Cl | Ht | GP-GS | MPG | PPG | RPG | APG | TOV | eFG% | 3P% | 3PA/g | FT% | Usage | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 55 | Acaden Lewis | G | Fr | 6'2" | 33-33 | 30.5 | 12.2 | 3.0 | 5.3 | 2.2 | 49.6% | 27.0% | 3.0 | 58.3% | 27.6% | |
| 4 | Tyler Perkins | G | Jr | 6'4" | 33-33 | 29.8 | 13.7 | 5.4 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 53.2% | 36.9% | 5.4 | 74.5% | 26.3% | |
| 2 | Bryce Lindsay | G | So | 6'3" | 33-31 | 28.5 | 12.3 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 1.2 | 49.6% | 35.6% | 6.6 | 77.1% | 27.1% | |
| 33 | Matt Hodge | F | Fr | 6'8" | 29-29 | 27.6 | 9.2 | 3.6 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 57.2% | 36.8% | 4.7 | 65.2% | 18.9% | |
| 7 | Malachi Palmer | G | So | 6'6" | 33-4 | 18.3 | 4.6 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 58.6% | 35.9% | 2.4 | 76.2% | 14.0% | |
| 17 | Braden Pierce | C | So | 7'0" | 30-1 | 6.5 | 1.2 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 66.7% | — | 0.0 | 60.0% | 11.0% | |
| 0 | Chris Jeffrey | G | Fr | 6'3" | 22-0 | 8.3 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.2 | 54.3% | 35.7% | 0.6 | 80.0% | 20.2% | |
| 6 | Tafara Gapare | F | Sr | 6'9" | 9-0 | 16.3 | 2.9 | 2.9 | 0.4 | 0.7 | 31.5% | 21.4% | 1.6 | 81.8% | 15.8% | |
| 1 | Zion Stanford | G | Jr | 6'6" | 10-0 | 5.0 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.7 | 50.0% | 0.0% | 0.3 | 75.0% | 23.4% | |
| 14 | Wade Chiddick | G | Sr | 6'4" | 1-0 | 3.0 | 3.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | 75.0% | 38.5% | |
| 15 | Malcolm Flaggs | G | So | 6'6" | 1-0 | 2.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0% | — | 0.0 | — | 30.2% | |
| 21 | Nico Onyekwere | C | Fr | 7'1" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — |
Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.
Notre Dame2025-26 numbers
| # | Player | Pos | Cl | Ht | GP-GS | MPG | PPG | RPG | APG | TOV | eFG% | 3P% | 3PA/g | FT% | Usage | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Braeden Shrewsberry | G | Jr | 6'4" | 31-31 | 32.7 | 11.9 | 3.1 | 1.9 | 1.1 | 53.2% | 40.2% | 7.1 | 77.8% | 21.8% | |
| 5 | Cole Certa | G | So | 6'5" | 31-16 | 26.9 | 12.8 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 50.8% | 36.7% | 7.1 | 89.2% | 26.6% | |
| 10 | Jalen Haralson | F | Fr | 6'7" | 27-23 | 26.7 | 16.2 | 4.0 | 2.6 | 2.7 | 52.3% | 20.0% | 0.9 | 67.4% | 38.7% | |
| 2 | Logan Imes | G | Jr | 6'4" | 31-10 | 21.1 | 4.7 | 3.2 | 1.7 | 1.2 | 46.2% | 32.5% | 2.5 | 52.4% | 17.7% | |
| 12 | Garrett Sundra | F | So | 6'11" | 31-16 | 17.9 | 3.5 | 3.2 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 53.3% | 30.8% | 1.7 | 63.2% | 12.1% | |
| 13 | Sir Mohammed | G | So | 6'6" | 31-5 | 16.4 | 5.7 | 2.6 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 45.6% | 28.6% | 1.4 | 54.5% | 27.6% | |
| 6 | Brady Koehler | F | Fr | 6'10" | 30-13 | 15.9 | 5.6 | 3.2 | 0.3 | 0.9 | 53.6% | 38.2% | 1.8 | 73.9% | 21.2% | |
| 3 | Markus Burton | G | Jr | 6'0" | 10-10 | 30.1 | 18.5 | 2.8 | 3.7 | 2.6 | 53.0% | 30.6% | 3.6 | 91.7% | 36.8% | |
| 14 | Kebba Njie | F | Sr | 6'10" | 17-0 | 11.5 | 2.5 | 3.4 | 0.2 | 0.6 | 63.2% | 0.0% | 0.1 | 72.0% | 13.0% | |
| 7 | Ryder Frost | F | Fr | 6'7" | 24-0 | 6.8 | 3.0 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 57.9% | 38.5% | 2.2 | 62.5% | 24.3% | |
| 34 | Matthew MacLellan | F | Sr | 6'9" | 9-0 | 4.9 | 1.9 | 1.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 85.7% | — | 0.0 | 71.4% | 14.6% | |
| 0 | Brady Stevens | G | Fr | 6'4" | 5-0 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 33.3% | 0.0% | 0.2 | 50.0% | 23.3% | |
| 22 | Luke Devine | F | Fr | 6'7" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 15 | Tommy Ahneman | C | Fr | 6'10" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — |
Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.
Head-to-head
this season and lastNo meetings the last two seasons.
The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — the consensus spread and total across books. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, built bottom-up from those same numbers: expected possessions times each side's opponent-adjusted points per possession, plus home court.
What these numbers mean: line shopping.