CBB Matchups

Every D1 game with tempo-free ratings, four factors and market lines, one place.

College basketball is being built for the 2026-27 season (tip-off Nov 3). What's here fills in as games are played.
Non-conferenceNeutral siteRock Hill Sports & Event Center, Rock Hill, SCField of 68 Opening Day Marathon
High Point
Efficiency #50
2025-26: 31-5 · 18-1 conf
vs
Liberty
Efficiency #103
2025-26: 26-8 · 17-4 conf
Sun, Nov 1 · 11:59 PM ET
79.6
win 63%
Projected
75.6
win 37%
No line posted yet.
Model spread +4.0 · total 155.2 · ratings as of Sat, Sep 26
Preseason ratings start from 2025-26's final adjusted ratings, regressed toward the D1 average. The stats below are 2025-26's too; both update once 2026-27 games are played.

How this game plays

what the study found each side's numbers actually do when these two teams meet
EdgeLiberty
Where Liberty scores: shooting
Liberty shoots an effective 59.1% (#4); High Point allows 50.5% (#126). Expect about 55.4%, 4.1 points above an average D1 matchup — worth roughly +5.9 points per 100 possessions.
GlassLiberty
Liberty gets out-rebounded
Projected offensive rebound rate of 23.0% is worth roughly -4.5 points per 100 possessions against Liberty's offense.
EdgeHigh Point
Where High Point scores: shooting
High Point shoots an effective 54.5% (#51); Liberty allows 52.7% (#251). Expect about 53.9%, 2.6 points above an average D1 matchup — worth roughly +3.7 points per 100 possessions.
Pace
Tempo tug-of-war
Liberty averages 64.5 possessions per 40, High Point 71.2. Slower teams pull the pace toward themselves more than fast teams push it (0.80 vs 0.66 in five seasons of games), so expect about 67 — more possessions mean more points in the total and more chances for the better team to separate.
TurnoversHigh Point
High Point protects the ball
Projected turnover rate of 14.7% is worth roughly +2.5 points per 100 possessions for High Point's offense.
ClashLiberty
Strength vs strength: live-ball turnovers
Liberty (#37 in live-ball turnovers) against High Point (#2 in the same stat allowed) — both rank inside the national top 60. Expect about 11.8%. Historically High Point's own number has carried a bit more weight in that exchange (0.40 vs 0.65).
Tempo
High Point
71.2
Liberty
64.5
57 poss/4080D1 avg 68.3

and pulls this game toward it a bit more than High Point's faster pace pulls the other way, landing the expected pace at 67.2 possessions per 40.

High Point has the ball
OffenseLiberty allowsvs D1 avg
54.5% #51
52.7% #251
+3.7 pt/100
12.8% #5
17.1% #147
+2.5 pt/100
31.8% #131
33.1% #302
+1.4 pt/100
40.8% #50
27.0% #23
-0.2 pt/100
74.3% #112
—
+0.2 pt/100
High Point's edge across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: +7.5 pts/100
Liberty has the ball
OffenseHigh Point allowsvs D1 avg
59.1% #4
50.5% #126
+5.9 pt/100
13.4% #12
21.3% #8
-1.1 pt/100
19.3% #365
31.1% #207
-4.5 pt/100
31.4% #273
35.5% #199
-0.2 pt/100
71.4% #228
—
-0.1 pt/100
Liberty's edge across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: -0.1 pts/100

How the points get scored

ratings through Sat, Sep 26 · preseason
Projected spread
+4.0
Liberty line
Projected total
155.2
Possessions
67.8
per team, 40 min
Model version
cbb-baseline-1.0
High PointLiberty→
70.1 #4266.1 #33767.8 possessions
High Point offense vs Liberty defense115.4 #43110.5 #246117.4 ppp → 79.6 pts
Liberty offense vs High Point defense114.2 #55105.8 #90111.5 ppp → 75.6 pts
Neutral site — no home-court edge applied.

Tale of the tape

national rank toned left for away, right for home
High PointLiberty
Efficiency
115.4
114.2
105.8
110.5
70.1
66.1
—
—
Shooting
54.5%
59.1%
57.0%
60.2%
34.2%
38.6%
74.3%
71.4%
40.8%
31.4%
Ball control & glass
12.8%
13.4%
21.3%
17.1%
31.8%
19.3%
31.1%
33.1%
6.8%
8.0%
10.7%
11.0%
Style
43.6%
47.7%
43.6%
43.0%
18.9%
8.5%
52.8%
61.4%
38.5%
19.7%
Roster
3.47
3.25
6'4.2"
6'3.2"
86.6%
86.7%

Offseason

roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model input
High Point
Returning minutes: 86.6%Returning production: 82.8%
Lost
  • Terry Anderson 26.9 mpg, 16.0 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
Added
  • Kasen Krueger no D1 minutes last season
  • Liam Carney no D1 minutes last season
  • Dorian Grosber no D1 minutes last season
  • Mavrick Miller no D1 minutes last season

No incoming D1 transfers are listed on ESPN's roster yet — until they are, returning shares read high.

Returns 87% of last season's minutes; lost 1 of its top 5. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026).

Liberty
Returning minutes: 86.7%Returning production: 84.4%
Lost
  • JJ Harper 26.8 mpg, 10.8 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
Added
  • Isaiah Ihnen no D1 minutes last season

No incoming D1 transfers are listed on ESPN's roster yet — until they are, returning shares read high.

Returns 87% of last season's minutes; lost 1 of its top 5. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026).

Recent form

last 10 games of 2025-26
High Point
DateOpponentSiteResultPPP forPPP vsPace
Sat, Mar 21#4ArkansasAdjEM #19NL 88–94113.8121.577.4
Thu, Mar 19#5WisconsinAdjEM #28NW 83–82113.7112.373.0
Sun, Mar 8WinthropAdjEM #116NW 91–76116.096.978.5
Sat, Mar 7UNC AshevilleAdjEM #225NW 75–71110.5104.667.9
Fri, Mar 6Gardner-WebbAdjEM #360NW 81–59115.384.070.3
Thu, Feb 26PresbyterianAdjEM #250AW 79–73115.6106.868.3
Sat, Feb 21WinthropAdjEM #116HW 89–87120.5117.873.9
Thu, Feb 19UNC AshevilleAdjEM #225HW 74–48115.074.664.4
Sat, Feb 14Gardner-WebbAdjEM #360AW 112–87143.5111.478.1
Thu, Feb 12SC UpstateAdjEM #282AW 95–70126.693.375.1
Liberty
DateOpponentSiteResultPPP forPPP vsPace
Sat, Mar 21NevadaAdjEM #71AL 63–73101.5117.662.0
Tue, Mar 17George MasonAdjEM #83AW 77–71122.3112.863.0
Wed, Mar 11Missouri StAdjEM #211NL 69–77108.0120.663.9
Sat, Mar 7Sam HoustonAdjEM #101HW 79–72127.1115.862.2
Thu, Mar 5Louisiana TechAdjEM #210HL 71–76118.8127.159.8
Sat, Feb 28Jax StateAdjEM #214AW 81–78127.5122.863.5
Thu, Feb 26Kennesaw StAdjEM #154AL 65–74102.7116.963.3
Sat, Feb 21Western KYAdjEM #159HL 73–94105.3135.569.3
Thu, Feb 19FIUAdjEM #199HW 90–89 1OT113.6112.379.2
Sat, Feb 14UTEPAdjEM #277AW 73–64118.9104.361.4

Players

High Point2025-26 numbers
#PlayerPosClHtGP-GSMPGPPGRPGAPGTOVeFG%3P%3PA/gFT%UsageStatus
3Rob MartinGSr5'10"35-3527.316.02.03.91.648.2%30.2%4.583.9%32.6%
8Owen AquinoFSr6'8"36-3626.59.35.82.41.857.9%44.4%1.065.3%19.8%
9Conrad MartinezGJr6'0"36-121.88.81.43.31.154.0%32.8%3.384.4%21.8%
15Braden HausenFSo6'7"36-2520.36.72.91.20.454.2%35.8%4.479.2%17.7%
12Scotty WashingtonGSr6'4"36-2918.88.22.80.90.457.3%37.9%2.977.3%21.0%
11Cam'Ron FletcherFSr6'7"27-1122.213.27.10.91.161.1%36.2%3.571.6%28.8%
99Chase JohnstonGSr6'3"33-1113.86.60.80.50.271.2%48.6%4.4100.0%19.3%
2Vincent Brady IIGSr6'3"25-016.45.21.91.60.644.7%24.2%2.680.6%19.7%
24Youssouf SingareFJr6'10"32-07.71.31.90.10.468.2%—0.055.0%9.9%
7Caden MillerFFr6'9"25-07.42.92.20.40.274.4%—0.028.6%18.6%
4Babacar DialloGSr6'6"16-07.92.40.80.60.472.7%0.0%0.143.8%15.2%
19Josh IbukunoluwaFSo6'10"16-06.52.82.00.30.063.0%—0.068.8%18.1%
35David FonvilleGSo6'3"11-03.10.50.30.20.020.0%0.0%0.3100.0%16.6%
14Birgir IrvingFSo6'7"10-01.80.30.10.10.20.0%0.0%0.442.9%36.4%
10Dorian GrosberGFr6'7"0-00.00.00.00.00.0——0.0——
23Kasen KruegerGFr6'1"0-00.00.00.00.00.0——0.0——
16Liam CarneyGJr6'6"0-00.00.00.00.00.0——0.0——
33Mavrick MillerGSo6'4"0-00.00.00.00.00.0——0.0——
Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Head-to-head

this season and last
No meetings the last two seasons.

The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — the consensus spread and total across books. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, built bottom-up from those same numbers: expected possessions times each side's opponent-adjusted points per possession, plus home court.

What these numbers mean: line shopping.