Fight of the Week
Natalia Silva vs Wang Cong — the UFC 332: Silva vs. Wang main event, open to everyone.
UFC 332: Silva vs. Wang — Saturday, October 3rd · Fight of the Week · open to everyone
Main event · Women's Flyweight · 5 roundsSaturday, October 3rd · lines: Pinnacle
Natalia Silva
20-5-1 · UFC 8-0 · 29 yrs
Volume Point-StrikerWWWWW
BJJ blue beltTaekwondo purple belt
VS
Wang Cong
10-1-0 · UFC 6-1 · 34 yrs
Volume Point-StrikerLWWWW
BoxingPro kickboxer 8-0
65%win % · betting market35%
Silva is a 65% favorite, most likely by decision (49%). Cong's best route is a decision (24%). 73% to go the distance.
Goes the distance
73%
round-1 finish 11% · market props
Likeliest result
Silva · Dec
49%
Silva finish threat
KO 13%
Sub 3%
Cong finish threat
KO 10%
Sub 1%
How it's likely to go
Who lands more takedowns
Silva 63%
Silva's takedown offense rates 19th percentile, Cong's defense 86th. Projected 0.9 takedowns per 15 minutes to Cong's 0.3. Calls this confident have been right 69% of the time (353 fights).
Who controls more of the fight
Toss-up
Silva's control offense rates 24th percentile, Cong's defense 92nd. Projected 0.9 minutes of control per 15 to Cong's 0.9. Calls this close have been right 54% of the time (665 fights).
Who lands more strikes
Toss-up
Silva's striking offense rates 80th percentile, Cong's defense 85th. Pace: Silva 4.4 significant strikes a minute, Cong 4.8. Calls this close have been right 56% of the time (577 fights).
If it goes to the scorecards
Silva 66%
Built mostly on the betting line. Calls this confident have been right 64% of the time (320 fights).
Paths to victory
share of all outcomes · decision and round-1 odds from the market, KO vs submission from the modelNatalia Silva65%
Decision49%
KO/TKO13%
Submission3%
Wang Cong35%
Decision24%
KO/TKO10%
Submission1%
Projected box score
| If it goes 25:00 | Pace vs this opponent | Any outcome · median (80% range) | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Silva · sig strikes | 106typical 55–138 | 4.4 / min | 7712–146 |
| Cong · sig strikes | 134typical 66–148 | 4.8 / min | 8615–136 |
| Silva · takedowns | ≈ 1.5 | 0.9 / 15 min | 1+: 34% · 2+: 13% |
| Cong · takedowns | ≈ 0.5 | 0.3 / 15 min | 1+: 21% · 2+: 5% |
| Silva · control | ≈ 1.5 min | 0.9 min / 15 | — |
| Cong · control | ≈ 1.5 min | 0.9 min / 15 | — |
How these calls have done
How often calls of 60% or more came true. Tested = 2022–2026 fights the models had not seen.Tested on past fights
Since Sep 26, 2026
Who lands more takedowns
78%
1,091 calls
3–3
50%
Who controls more of the fight
73%
1,559 calls
6–2
75%
Who lands more strikes
71%
1,580 calls
6–2
75%
If it goes to the scorecards
71%
798 calls
2–1
67%
Typical miss if it goes the distance: 23.2 strikes tested · 21.1 live. The shown distance range has held 51% tested · 50% live (target 60%). The any-outcome range has held 77% tested · 81% live (target 80%).