MMA Matchups

Every bout: who is favored, how it likely ends, and who wins the grappling and the striking.

Main event · Heavyweight · 5 roundsSaturday, November 14th · lines: Market
Ciryl Gane
14-2-0 · UFC 11-2 · 13 UFC fights · 36 yrs
LWWNCW6' 4" · 81" reachOrthodoxKO/Power Striker
Josh Hokit
10-0-0 · UFC 5-0 · 5 UFC fights · 29 yrs
WWWWW6' 1" · 73" reachOrthodoxPressure Finisher
64%win % · betting market36%

Gane is a 64% favorite, most likely by KO/TKO (31%). Hokit's best route is a KO/TKO (21%). Gane is 76% to land more strikes. Hokit is 72% to land more takedowns. 35% to go the distance.

Goes the distance
35%
R1 finish 20%
Likeliest result
Gane KO
31%
Finish threat
KO 31%
Gane · Sub 10%
Finish threat
KO 21%
Hokit · Sub 3%
Best Bets
No plays on this game.We post a play only when our criteria are met — most games won't have one.

Our calls

model, tested on fights it had not seen
Who lands more takedowns
Hokit 72%
Calls this confident have been right 76% of the time (359 fights).
Who controls more of the fight
Hokit 70%
Calls this confident have been right 75% of the time (369 fights).
Who lands more strikes
Gane 76%
Calls this confident have been right 73% of the time (495 fights).
If it goes to the scorecards
Gane 63%
Calls this confident have been right 64% of the time (333 fights).

Projected fight

Sig strikes landed
020406080100120140160180Gane61If it goes 25:00: 128Hokit46If it goes 25:00: 84
middle half of outcomes8 in 10if it goes 25:00
1+ takedown2+ takedownsControl / 15
Gane35%13%0.1 min
Hokit46%23%3.8 min

Offense vs defense

When Gane attacksGane offense · Hokit defense
Striking98thunrated—
Takedowns13thunrated—
Control8thunrated—
Submissions39thunrated—
When Hokit attacksHokit offense · Gane defense
Strikingunrated99th—
Takedownsunrated29th—
Controlunrated86th—
Submissionsunrated21st—

Tale of the tape

UFC career, per 15 minutes · green / red percentile = top / bottom 20% of Heavyweights
Striking
83rd81.0Landed154.299th
11th34.6Absorbed91.892nd
88th62%Accuracy64%91st
49th36.1Head138.7100th
95th21.5Body13.068th
99th23.4Leg2.520th
Power & chin
59th0.33Knockdowns1.5095th
48th0.41PowerKD per 100 landed0.9775th
46th0.24Chindropped per 100 taken0.000th
0KO losses0
Grappling
57th2.8TD attempts3.060th
52nd0.7TD landed1.572nd
35th24%TD accuracy50%84th
24th47%TD defence78%71st
29th1:20Control4:1472nd
28th1:10Controlled1:0225th
87th0.58Sub attempts0.5085th
Getting hit
0th14.2Head77.895th
37th7.8Body10.050th
84th12.6Leg4.028th
Where they landHeadBodyLeg
Gane
45%27%29%
Hokit
90%
Where they get hitHeadBodyLeg
Gane
41%23%36%
Hokit
85%
Where it happensDistanceClinchGround
Gane
89%
Hokit
68%17%16%

Do they fade?

sig strikes thrown per minute
3579111315171921232527R1R2R3R4R5Gane R1: 7.8 thrown a minute · 11 fightsGane R2: 8.0 thrown a minute · 8 fightsGane R3: 8.0 thrown a minute · 5 fightsGane R4: 8.4 thrown a minute · 3 fightsGane R5: 6.8 thrown a minute · 3 fightsHokit R1: 13.5 thrown a minute · 2 fightsHokit R2: 17.2 thrown a minute · 1 fightHokit R3: 25.4 thrown a minute · 1 fightfights118533211——
GaneHokitHeavyweight avg · R5 108% of R1under 3 fights
GaneR5 pace 146% of R1 · 3 fights
HokitR3 pace 159% of R1 · 1 fight · no 5-round fights to the end

Takedowns by round

attempts per round
0123R1Gane R1: 0.7 attempts · 11 fights0.7Hokit R1: 1.5 attempts · 2 fights1.5Heavyweight avg R1: 1.0 attempts · 288 fights1.0R2Gane R2: 1.4 attempts · 8 fights1.4Hokit R2: 0.0 attempts · 1 fight0.0Heavyweight avg R2: 0.8 attempts · 210 fights0.8R3Gane R3: 0.6 attempts · 5 fights0.6Hokit R3: 0.0 attempts · 1 fight0.0Heavyweight avg R3: 1.0 attempts · 180 fights1.0R4Gane R4: 0.7 attempts · 3 fights0.7–Heavyweight avg R4: 0.9 attempts · 10 fights0.9R5Gane R5: 2.3 attempts · 3 fights2.3–Heavyweight avg R5: 1.9 attempts · 8 fights1.9fights118533211——
GaneHokitHeavyweight avgunder 3 fights
Gane2.8 attempts · 0.7 landed per 15 min · 24% accuracy
Hokit3.0 attempts · 1.5 landed per 15 min · 50% accuracy

Weight class

WinLoss5-round bout (main event or title)
GaneHeavyweight · 2652019-08-10 · W SUB vs Raphael Pessoa · Heavyweight2019-10-26 · W SUB vs Don'Tale Mayes · Heavyweight2019-12-21 · W DEC vs Tanner Boser · Heavyweight2020-12-12 · W KO/TKO vs Junior Dos Santos · Heavyweight2021-02-27 · W DEC vs Jairzinho Rozenstruik · Heavyweight · 5 rounds2021-06-26 · W DEC vs Alexander Volkov · Heavyweight · 5 rounds2021-08-07 · W KO/TKO vs Derrick Lewis · Heavyweight · 5 rounds2022-01-22 · L DEC vs Francis Ngannou · Heavyweight · 5 rounds2022-09-03 · W KO/TKO vs Tai Tuivasa · Heavyweight · 5 rounds2023-03-04 · L SUB vs Jon Jones · Heavyweight · 5 rounds2023-09-02 · W KO/TKO vs Serghei Spivac · Heavyweight · 5 rounds2024-12-07 · W DEC vs Alexander Volkov · Heavyweight2025-10-25 · D OTHER vs Tom Aspinall · Heavyweight · 5 rounds2026-06-14 · W KO/TKO vs Alex Pereira · Heavyweight
HokitHeavyweight · 2652025-11-08 · W KO/TKO vs Max Gimenis · Heavyweight2026-01-24 · W KO/TKO vs Denzel Freeman · Heavyweight2026-04-11 · W DEC vs Curtis Blaydes · Heavyweight2026-06-14 · W KO/TKO vs Derrick Lewis · Heavyweight

Last five fights

UFC box scores · class chip = fought away from Heavyweight
Sig strikes landedGrapplingTaken
OpponentDateClassResultKDTotalHeadBodyLegAccTDCtrlSubSigTD att
Ciryl Gane
Alex Pereira06/26HWW KO R21543941163%0/20:12·12·
Tom Aspinall10/25HWD OTHER R1·30891375%0/00:00·271
Alexander Volkov12/24HWW DEC R3·4314101970%2/43:402394
Serghei Spivac09/23HWW KO R2·10948392270%0/00:09·111
Jon Jones03/23HWL SUB R1·612375%0/00:00·52
Josh Hokit
Derrick Lewis06/26HWW KO R2186747574%2/34:04171
Curtis Blaydes04/26HWW DEC R3·17716413060%0/10:31·1747
Denzel Freeman01/26HWW KO R1·37316065%1/23:47·01
Max Gimenis11/25HWW KO R12990053%0/00:08·3·

How these numbers are made

Win % is the betting market's with the margin removed. KO / submission / decision splits are our method model on that win %, with the sportsbooks' decision and round-1 prices where posted.

Per-15 rates pool every UFC minute a fighter has fought. Percentiles rank them among the bout's weight class (fighters with 3+ UFC fights there since 2021). A stat is coloured only when it held up in a split-half test: a fighter's odd-numbered fights predict their even-numbered ones.

Each round's numbers use the fights that reached the end of that round, so a finishing flurry never inflates a pace; the counts under each chart show how many fights a round rests on.

How these calls have done

How often calls of 60% or more came true. Tested = 2022–2026 fights the models had not seen.
Tested on past fights
Since Sep 26, 2026
Who lands more takedowns
79%
1,135 calls
35–5
88%
Who controls more of the fight
73%
1,592 calls
28–11
72%
Who lands more strikes
71%
1,615 calls
31–12
72%
If it goes to the scorecards
71%
812 calls
13–5
72%

Typical miss if it goes the distance: 23 strikes tested · 19.4 live. The shown distance range has held 53% tested · 61% live (target 60%). The any-outcome range has held 78% tested · 79% live (target 80%).

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Each bout opens with one answer: the betting market's win probability, how the fight is likely to end (KO/TKO, submission or decision, and the chance it goes the distance), and the matchup calls our models make with their track record: who lands more takedowns, who controls more of the fight, who lands more strikes. Below that sit projected significant strikes and takedowns (if it goes the distance, the pace per minute, and the range over every outcome), opponent-adjusted skill ratings, the full tale of the tape and each fighter's history, including accurate handling of ring-name changes.

What these numbers mean: implied probability · model calibration.