MMA Matchups

Every bout: who is favored, how it likely ends, and who wins the grappling and the striking.

Main event · Bantamweight · 5 roundsSaturday, September 26th · lines: Pinnacle
Raul Rosas Jr.
12-1-0 · UFC 7-1 · 21 yrs
Grinding WrestlerWWWWW
BJJ black belt
Raoni Barcelos
22-5-0 · UFC 11-4 · 39 yrs
Volume Point-StrikerWWWWW
BJJ black beltWrestling
57%win % · betting market43%

Rosas is a 57% favorite, most likely by decision (29%). Barcelos's best route is a decision (24%). Rosas is 85% to land more takedowns and 68% to control more of the fight. 54% to go the distance.

Goes the distance
54%
round-1 finish 14% · market props
Likeliest result
Rosas · Dec
29%
Rosas finish threat
Sub 17%
KO 11%
Barcelos finish threat
KO 12%
Sub 6%

How it's likely to go

Who lands more takedowns
Rosas 85%
Rosas's takedown offense rates 100th percentile, Barcelos's defense 98th. Projected 3.2 takedowns per 15 minutes to Barcelos's 1.1. Calls this confident have been right 85% of the time (260 fights).
Who controls more of the fight
Rosas 68%
Rosas's control offense rates 99th percentile, Barcelos's defense 97th. Projected 5.4 minutes of control per 15 to Barcelos's 3.5. Calls this confident have been right 67% of the time (572 fights).
Who lands more strikes
Toss-up
Rosas's striking offense rates 0th percentile, Barcelos's defense 35th. Pace: Rosas 2.5 significant strikes a minute, Barcelos 2.7. Calls this close have been right 56% of the time (582 fights).
If it goes to the scorecards
Toss-up
Built mostly on the betting line. Calls this close have been right 53% of the time (285 fights).

Paths to victory

share of all outcomes · decision and round-1 odds from the market, KO vs submission from the model
Raul Rosas Jr.57%
Decision29%
Submission17%
KO/TKO11%
Raoni Barcelos43%
Decision24%
KO/TKO12%
Submission6%

Projected box score

If it goes 25:00Pace vs this opponentAny outcome · median (80% range)
Rosas · sig strikes60typical 34–842.5 / min269–75
Barcelos · sig strikes61typical 35–822.7 / min315–86
Rosas · takedowns≈ 5.33.2 / 15 min1+: 74% · 2+: 57%
Barcelos · takedowns≈ 1.81.1 / 15 min1+: 44% · 2+: 21%
Rosas · control≈ 9.0 min5.4 min / 15—
Barcelos · control≈ 5.8 min3.5 min / 15—

What the numbers can't see

  • Raoni Barcelos is 39, 18 years older.

How these calls have done

How often calls of 60% or more came true. Tested = 2022–2026 fights the models had not seen.
Tested on past fights
Live
Who lands more takedowns
79%
1,086 calls
—
Who controls more of the fight
73%
1,542 calls
—
Who lands more strikes
71%
1,574 calls
—
If it goes to the scorecards
71%
800 calls
—

Live tracking began September 26, 2026. Calls are saved before each bout and graded after the card.

Typical miss if it goes the distance: 23.3 strikes tested. The shown distance range has held 52% tested (target 60%). The any-outcome range has held 77% tested (target 80%).

Each bout opens with one answer: the betting market's win probability, how the fight is likely to end (KO/TKO, submission or decision, and the chance it goes the distance), and the matchup calls our models make with their track record: who lands more takedowns, who controls more of the fight, who lands more strikes. Below that sit projected significant strikes and takedowns (if it goes the distance, the pace per minute, and the range over every outcome), opponent-adjusted skill ratings, the full tale of the tape and each fighter's history, including accurate handling of ring-name changes.

What these numbers mean: implied probability · model calibration.