CBB Matchups

Every D1 game with tempo-free ratings, four factors and market lines, one place.

College basketball is being built for the 2026-27 season (tip-off Nov 3). What's here fills in as games are played.

Non-conferenceKirby Sports Center, Easton, PA

Penn State

Efficiency #194

2025-26: 12-20 · 3-18 conf

Lafayette

Efficiency #319

2025-26: 11-21 · 8-11 conf

Tue, Nov 10 · TBD

76.2

win 55%

Projected

74.6

win 45%

No line posted yet.

Model: PSU −1.6 · total 150.7 · ratings as of Sat, Oct 3

Preseason ratings start from 2025-26's final adjusted ratings, regressed toward the D1 average. The stats below are 2025-26's too; both update once 2026-27 games are played.

How the projection is built

each step, from an average D-I game to this one

Projected total

Average D-I game

148.2

PaceAdjusted tempo: Lafayette 68.0, Penn State 68.4 → 68.0 possessions

−0.6

Lafayette offense vs Penn State defense

−1.2

Penn State offense vs Lafayette defense

+4.3

Projected total

150.7

Axis starts at 144 pointsPoints added or removed at each step

Projected margin

Even game

0.0

Lafayette offense vs Penn State defense

−1.2

Penn State offense vs Lafayette defense

−4.3

Home court+2.9 points per 100 possessions to the home offense, −2.9 to the visitors

+3.9

Penn State by 1.6

1.6

Penn State side ◂▸ Lafayette side

Steps are rounded to one decimal, so they can differ from the total by 0.1. The margin is the same build seen from the home side; positive numbers help Lafayette.

Pace & total

possessions per 40 minutes

Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes

Projected possessions: 68.0, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw 2025-26 season pace, Penn State is the faster team (67.5, #224 of 365) and Lafayette the slower (66.9, #248). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (study weights 0.80 vs 0.66).

Projected possessions

68.0

per team, 40 min

Projected total

150.7

model

Projected team totals

76.2 / 74.6

Penn State / Lafayette

Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent

68.4#175

Penn State

68.0#214

Lafayette

How this game plays

what the study found each side's numbers actually do when these two teams meet

AdvantageLafayette

Where Lafayette scores: shooting

Lafayette shoots an effective 49.3% (#278); Penn State allows 58.4% (#363). Expect about 53.8%, 2.5 points above an average D1 matchup — worth roughly +3.6 points per 100 possessions.

AdvantagePenn State

Where Penn State scores: shooting

Penn State shoots an effective 53.0% (#102); Lafayette allows 53.6% (#286). Expect about 53.5%, 2.2 points above an average D1 matchup — worth roughly +3.1 points per 100 possessions.

GlassPenn State

Penn State gets out-rebounded

Projected offensive rebound rate of 26.4% is worth roughly -2.4 points per 100 possessions against Penn State's offense.

TurnoversPenn State

Penn State protects the ball

Projected turnover rate of 15.1% is worth roughly +2.1 points per 100 possessions for Penn State's offense.

Watch for noise

3-point caution

A notable season 3-point number here (Penn State's defense) is close to a coin flip going forward — the study's model of next-game 3P% barely beats guessing the D1 average. Shot volume is what actually carries: expect Penn State at about 37.4% of its shots from three, Lafayette about 42.3%.

GlassLafayette

Lafayette gets out-rebounded

Projected offensive rebound rate of 27.5% is worth roughly -1.7 points per 100 possessions against Lafayette's offense.

Penn State has the ball

OffenseLafayette allowsvs D1 avg

53.0% #102

53.6% #286

+3.1 pt/100

15.6% #108

15.1% #276

+2.1 pt/100

25.9% #325

28.6% #88

-2.4 pt/100

33.8% #219

30.6% #76

-0.4 pt/100

75.0% #83

—

+0.2 pt/100

Penn State net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: +2.6 pts/100

Lafayette has the ball

OffensePenn State allowsvs D1 avg

49.3% #278

58.4% #363

+3.6 pt/100

15.3% #90

17.7% #113

+0.3 pt/100

25.8% #326

31.1% #210

-1.7 pt/100

32.4% #249

27.5% #28

-0.7 pt/100

68.9% #303

—

-0.3 pt/100

Lafayette net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: +1.1 pts/100

Shot diet

Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot · 2025-26 numbers

Penn Stateoffense vsLafayettedefense

Share of shots by zone

Penn State shoots

38.7

5.6

17.9

37.7

Lafayette allows

37.2

8.3

16.3

38.2

D-I average

38.5

6.4

15.8

39.3

FG% by zone

Zone			D-I avg
Rim	62.1%#69	62.6%#314	58.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)	42.5%#111	41.5%#224	39.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)	42.8%#42	37.7%#152	38.0%
Three	32.4%#263	36.0%#298	33.7%

Lafayetteoffense vsPenn Statedefense

Share of shots by zone

Lafayette shoots

41.6

5.2

13.5

39.7

Penn State allows

39.1

5.8

12.5

42.6

D-I average

38.5

6.4

15.8

39.3

FG% by zone

Zone			D-I avg
Rim	57.1%#231	67.3%#362	58.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)	40.7%#152	35.2%#63	39.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)	32.9%#331	43.7%#338	38.0%
Three	32.2%#273	38.8%#363	33.7%

RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three

Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).

Shot volume

Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line · 2025-26 numbers

Penn State

+1.5extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#118 of 365

Off reb %

25.9%

#325

Def reb %

68.9%

#210

Turnover %

15.6%

#108

Forced TO %

17.7%

#113

FT rate

33.8%

#219

FT allowed

27.5%

#28

Where the chances come from (per game)

Offensive rebounding−1.4

Defensive rebounding−0.2

Ball security+0.8

Forcing turnovers+0.7

Foul shots drawn−0.3

Foul shots allowed+2.0

Lafayette

−0.4extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#194 of 365

Off reb %

25.8%

#326

Def reb %

71.4%

#88

Turnover %

15.3%

#90

Forced TO %

15.1%

#276

FT rate

32.4%

#249

FT allowed

30.6%

#76

Where the chances come from (per game)

Offensive rebounding−1.5

Defensive rebounding+0.6

Ball security+1.0

Forcing turnovers−1.1

Foul shots drawn−0.7

Foul shots allowed+1.2

Penn State has more extra scoring chances per game: +1.5 (#118 of 365) to Lafayette’s −0.4 (#194).

Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).

Rotation

Penn State2025-26 numbers

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
10	Josh Reed	F	Sr	6'8"	32-31	28.2	11.5	4.1	1.0	1.1	55.3%	36.8%	2.7	87.2%	22.0%
4	Kayden Mingo	G	Fr	6'3"	28-28	32.1	13.7	3.5	4.3	2.0	51.2%	24.4%	3.1	70.5%	26.9%
3	Ivan Juric	F	Fr	7'0"	30-26	26.4	10.2	5.3	0.8	1.9	61.6%	28.3%	1.8	66.1%	22.5%
7	Dominick Stewart	G	So	6'5"	32-24	22.5	6.6	2.2	1.6	0.8	51.5%	34.8%	3.5	79.1%	18.1%
9	Melih Tunca	G	Fr	6'5"	31-12	22.8	7.8	2.0	2.4	1.4	50.3%	31.3%	2.1	77.0%	22.1%
11	Eli Rice	G	So	6'8"	29-18	19.8	6.7	1.7	0.2	0.6	51.6%	39.0%	3.6	77.3%	20.3%
1	Mason Blackwood	F	Fr	6'7"	26-1	12.3	2.6	1.8	0.2	0.3	54.5%	22.2%	1.0	77.8%	12.5%
22	Sasa Ciani	F	Jr	6'10"	28-4	10.0	2.1	1.9	0.2	0.4	39.8%	20.0%	0.2	68.2%	16.0%
16	Tibor Mirtic	F	Fr	6'9"	15-1	14.2	3.7	3.3	0.7	0.7	54.3%	33.3%	0.2	30.8%	17.6%
21	Justin Houser	F	Fr	7'0"	18-0	6.2	1.4	1.1	0.2	0.3	50.0%	33.3%	0.5	62.5%	16.2%
30	Chris Lotito	F	Fr	6'7"	4-0	1.5	0.0	0.3	0.0	0.3	—	—	0.0	—	9.7%
12	Reggie Grodin	G	Fr	6'5"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Lafayette2025-26 numbers

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
21	Andrew Phillips	G	So	6'4"	32-32	33.4	13.9	4.6	1.3	1.1	48.1%	31.1%	6.5	71.3%	26.3%
1	Caleb Williams	G	Fr	6'0"	31-31	32.7	16.1	3.6	3.2	2.2	48.3%	33.2%	7.4	87.9%	31.1%
22	Christian Humphrey-Rembert	F	Fr	—	32-31	30.1	7.7	6.6	0.5	0.7	52.4%	37.2%	4.9	66.0%	15.6%
44	Shareef Jackson	F	Fr	6'8"	30-30	22.1	10.0	5.0	1.6	2.1	57.1%	0.0%	0.1	52.4%	29.6%
0	Ryan Pettit	G	Jr	6'2"	28-3	20.8	5.6	3.3	1.5	0.7	52.0%	25.0%	1.4	58.3%	16.9%
13	Misha Bednostin	C	So	6'11"	28-0	10.0	1.4	1.9	0.8	0.6	57.7%	—	0.0	55.6%	11.1%
2	KaiMani Murdock	G	So	6'6"	25-0	10.6	3.0	1.6	0.4	0.3	49.3%	33.3%	2.5	33.3%	19.1%
34	Luke Bevilacqua	F	Fr	6'11"	25-1	9.1	2.8	1.6	0.5	1.1	58.5%	—	0.0	55.0%	22.1%
24	Folabomi Fayemi	G	Fr	6'4"	16-0	6.1	1.3	0.8	0.0	0.3	31.5%	16.7%	0.4	44.4%	21.2%
23	Joshua Wyche	G	So	6'7"	11-0	6.9	0.6	1.6	0.3	0.2	37.5%	0.0%	0.2	25.0%	9.7%
20	Ashton Wallace	G	Fr	6'3"	11-0	4.1	0.6	0.9	0.4	0.4	25.0%	0.0%	0.3	100.0%	21.0%
14	Malik Rasul	F	Fr	6'7"	7-0	6.0	1.3	1.4	0.3	0.6	42.9%	0.0%	0.1	50.0%	18.4%
11	Luke Azzinaro	F	Fr	6'5"	6-0	2.8	0.7	0.5	0.0	0.2	33.3%	0.0%	0.5	—	23.1%
3	Beckett Currie	G	Fr	5'11"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—
22	Chris Rubayo	F	Sr	6'10"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—
15	Justin Vander Baan	C	Sr	7'0"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—
99	Luka Savicevic	G	Sr	6'3"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—
9	TJ Berger	G	Sr	6'4"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Penn State2025-26 numbers

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
10	Josh Reed	F	Sr	6'8"	32-31	28.2	11.5	4.1	1.0	1.1	55.3%	36.8%	2.7	87.2%	22.0%
4	Kayden Mingo	G	Fr	6'3"	28-28	32.1	13.7	3.5	4.3	2.0	51.2%	24.4%	3.1	70.5%	26.9%
3	Ivan Juric	F	Fr	7'0"	30-26	26.4	10.2	5.3	0.8	1.9	61.6%	28.3%	1.8	66.1%	22.5%
7	Dominick Stewart	G	So	6'5"	32-24	22.5	6.6	2.2	1.6	0.8	51.5%	34.8%	3.5	79.1%	18.1%
9	Melih Tunca	G	Fr	6'5"	31-12	22.8	7.8	2.0	2.4	1.4	50.3%	31.3%	2.1	77.0%	22.1%
11	Eli Rice	G	So	6'8"	29-18	19.8	6.7	1.7	0.2	0.6	51.6%	39.0%	3.6	77.3%	20.3%
1	Mason Blackwood	F	Fr	6'7"	26-1	12.3	2.6	1.8	0.2	0.3	54.5%	22.2%	1.0	77.8%	12.5%
22	Sasa Ciani	F	Jr	6'10"	28-4	10.0	2.1	1.9	0.2	0.4	39.8%	20.0%	0.2	68.2%	16.0%
16	Tibor Mirtic	F	Fr	6'9"	15-1	14.2	3.7	3.3	0.7	0.7	54.3%	33.3%	0.2	30.8%	17.6%
21	Justin Houser	F	Fr	7'0"	18-0	6.2	1.4	1.1	0.2	0.3	50.0%	33.3%	0.5	62.5%	16.2%
30	Chris Lotito	F	Fr	6'7"	4-0	1.5	0.0	0.3	0.0	0.3	—	—	0.0	—	9.7%
12	Reggie Grodin	G	Fr	6'5"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Trends

Last 10 games of 2025-26

Penn State

Against the spread

Season

12-20

Home

7-10

Road

4-7

Last 10

3-7

avg cover −5.2

Missed the spread 3 straightCovered 3 of 9 as an underdog

Over / under

Season

18-14

Home

9-8

Road

8-3

Last 10

5-5

avg vs total −1.6

Under 2 straightOver in 4 of 9 as an underdog

Last 10 games, newest first

Date	Opponent	Site	Result			Total		PPP for	PPP vs	Pace
Mar 10	NorthwesternAdjEM #78	N	L 66–76	+5.0	L−5.0	144.5	U142	103.9	119.6	63.6
Mar 8	RutgersAdjEM #192	A	L 62–74	+5.0	L−7.0	150.5	U136	89.5	106.8	69.3
Mar 4	Ohio StateAdjEM #31	H	L 62–94	+7.0	L−25.0	152.0	O156	95.7	145.1	64.8
Feb 28	IowaAdjEM #22	H	W 71–69	+9.0	W+11.0	144.0	U140	119.5	116.1	59.4
Feb 21	#9NebraskaAdjEM #17	A	L 64–87	+17.5	L−5.5	147.5	O151	92.2	125.4	69.4
Feb 18	RutgersAdjEM #192	H	L 72–85	−4.5	L−17.5	149.0	O157	105.6	124.7	68.2
Feb 14	OregonAdjEM #143	A	L 72–83	+6.5	L−4.5	147.0	O155	109.7	126.5	65.6
Feb 11	WashingtonAdjEM #59	A	W 63–60	+12.5	W+15.5	153.0	U123	96.3	91.7	65.4
Feb 8	USCAdjEM #97	H	L 75–77	+3.0	W+1.0	157.0	U152	103.7	106.4	72.3
Feb 5	#2MichiganAdjEM #1	A	L 69–110	+26.5	L−14.5	162.0	O179	96.9	154.5	71.2

Lafayette

Against the spread

Season

14-17

Home

4-11

Road

10-6

Last 10

5-5

avg cover −3.1

Missed the spread in the last gameCovered 2 of 5 as a favoriteCovered 3 of 5 as an underdog

Over / under

Season

18-13

Home

9-6

Road

9-7

Last 10

4-6

avg vs total −2.9

Over 2 straightOver in 3 of 5 as a favoriteOver in 1 of 5 as an underdog

Last 10 games, newest first

Date	Opponent	Site	Result			Total		PPP for	PPP vs	Pace
Mar 3	Holy CrossAdjEM #325	H	L 77–82	−4.5	L−9.5	141.5	O159	114.0	121.4	67.5
Feb 28	ArmyAdjEM #336	H	W 83–77	−3.0	W+3.0	144.5	O160	114.5	106.2	72.5
Feb 25	ColgateAdjEM #223	A	W 70–69	+8.5	W+9.5	147.5	U139	112.2	110.6	62.4
Feb 22	AmericanAdjEM #234	H	L 61–75	+3.5	L−10.5	141.0	U136	103.5	127.3	58.9
Feb 18	Holy CrossAdjEM #325	A	W 86–83	+2.0	W+5.0	139.5	O169	120.3	116.1	71.5
Feb 14	LehighAdjEM #273	H	L 69–78	−1.0	L−10.0	140.5	O147	106.8	120.7	64.6
Feb 11	Loyola MDAdjEM #313	H	L 54–68	−3.0	L−17.0	148.5	U122	82.5	103.9	65.5
Feb 7	ArmyAdjEM #336	A	W 63–60	−1.0	W+2.0	143.0	U123	93.6	89.1	67.3
Feb 4	NavyAdjEM #104	H	L 50–65	+3.5	L−11.5	141.5	U115	78.7	102.3	63.5
Jan 31	AmericanAdjEM #234	A	W 67–65	+5.5	W+7.5	143.0	U132	105.4	102.2	63.6

Records vs the closing line describe the past; ten games is a small sample.

Tale of the tape

national rank toned left for away, right for home

Penn StateLafayette

Efficiency

110.8

103.4

111.8

112.5

68.4

68.0

—

Shooting

53.0%

49.3%

55.8%

50.0%

32.4%

32.2%

75.0%

68.9%

33.8%

32.4%

Ball control & glass

15.6%

15.3%

17.7%

15.1%

25.9%

25.8%

31.1%

28.6%

8.6%

7.9%

9.8%

10.5%

Style

38.1%

39.8%

46.1%

14.8%

9.7%

48.3%

55.4%

33.2%

24.7%

Roster

1.82

1.53

6'7.1"

6'4.4"

86.3%

83.1%

Offseason

roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model input

Penn State

Returning minutes: 86.3%Returning production: 82.2%

Lost

Freddie Dilione V 27.5 mpg, 14.0 ppg · transferred to Georgia

Added

Reggie Grodin no D1 minutes last season

No incoming D1 transfers are listed on ESPN's roster yet — until they are, returning shares read high.

Returns 86% of last season's minutes; lost 1 of its top 5 (1 transferred). Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026).

Lafayette

Returning minutes: 83.1%Returning production: 82.8%

Lost

Mark Butler 33.9 mpg, 10.7 ppg · transferred to Rider

Added

Justin Vander Baan no D1 minutes last season
Beckett Currie no D1 minutes last season
TJ Berger no D1 minutes last season
Chris Rubayo no D1 minutes last season
Luka Savicevic no D1 minutes last season

No incoming D1 transfers are listed on ESPN's roster yet — until they are, returning shares read high.

Returns 83% of last season's minutes; lost 1 of its top 5 (1 transferred). Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026).

Head-to-head

this season and last

No meetings the last two seasons.

The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — Pinnacle's spread and total (the median across books when Pinnacle has no line). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, built bottom-up from those same numbers: expected possessions times each side's opponent-adjusted points per possession, plus home court.

What these numbers mean: line shopping.